8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $218.42 (banked floor $216.92) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $17,914/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $527/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-57,472 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 8 × $165 | 76% | $9,874 | $2,385 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $192.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 24.7% | 97% | 5% | -1pp | $145 | $621 | -$9,253 | $12,816 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 24.7% OTM over spot $154.31 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.55 mid) = $145 credit for the 7d cycle → $621/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $193.05) 98% EV / mo +$457 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $358/mo median; plan ~$243/mo after 68% keep · $1,845 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.1-4.3], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,775 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $218 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.09/sh now → $7.84 mid-life (likely $5.40–$11.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 54 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $198 (overshoots $5.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $26 below CC-SS $218.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $193.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $171.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,472 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,466 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$12,816 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $210): -$2,338 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,160 (+$43,312 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,920, the opportunity cost of earning $621/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.41 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-35,308 (+$22,164 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $177.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 15.0% | 91% | 18% | +2pp | $672 | $2,880 | -$6,994 | $32,066 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $177.50 15.0% OTM over spot $154.31 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.29 mid) = $672 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $178.79) 92% EV / mo +$1,473 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,340/mo median; plan ~$911/mo after 68% keep · $7,768 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,782 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $203 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.64/sh now → $6.82 mid-life (likely $5.47–$9.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $182 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $41 below CC-SS $218.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $178.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $171.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,472 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,466 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $177.50): -$32,066 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,072 (+$26,400 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,832, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.41 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$56, position total $-35,553 (+$21,919 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $170 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.2% | 84% | 34% | +6pp | $1,464 | $6,274 | -$3,600 | $37,274 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $170 10.2% OTM over spot $154.31 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.03 mid) = $1,464 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,274/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $172.03) 86% EV / mo +$2,871 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,817/mo median; plan ~$1,916/mo after 68% keep · $17,107 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.5], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,601 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $196 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.95/sh now → $6.33 mid-life (likely $6.10–$9.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 700 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $174 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $48 below CC-SS $218.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.83 collected) or spot ≥ $172.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $171.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,472 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,466 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $170): -$37,274 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,280 (+$21,192 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,040, the opportunity cost of earning $6,274/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.41 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,264, position total $-40,761 (+$16,711 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $165 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.9% | 76% | 36% | +10pp | $2,304 | $9,874 | — | $40,434 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $165 6.9% OTM over spot $154.31 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.04 mid) = $2,304 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,874/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $168.04) 81% EV / mo +$3,854 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,793/mo median; plan ~$2,579/mo after 68% keep · $23,339 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,510 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $196 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.51/sh now → $6.02 mid-life (likely $6.53–$9.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,089 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $169 (overshoots $3.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $53 below CC-SS $218.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.72/sh (~25% of the $2.88 collected) or spot ≥ $168.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $171.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,472 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,466 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $165): -$40,434 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,440 (+$18,032 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,200, the opportunity cost of earning $9,874/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.41 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,424, position total $-43,921 (+$13,551 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $155 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.4% | 54% | 96% | +8pp | $4,375 | $18,750 | +$8,876 | $40,021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $155 0.4% OTM over spot $154.31 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.72 mid) = $4,375 credit for the 7d cycle → $18,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $161.72) 70% EV / mo +$3,916 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,656/mo median; plan ~$3,166/mo after 68% keep · $25,680 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.2], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$586 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $191 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.65/sh now → $5.41 mid-life (likely $7.52–$11.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,303 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $159 (overshoots $4.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $63 below CC-SS $218.42: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.56/sh (~25% of the $6.25 collected) or spot ≥ $161.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $171.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,472 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,466 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $155): -$40,021 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$779 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,806 (+$17,666 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,566, the opportunity cost of earning $18,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.41 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,012, position total $-47,446 (+$10,026 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.140 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$58,466 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,240
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $165 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.88 | 8/8 | $9,874 | $9,347 | 76% | 81% | +$3,854 | -$40,434 | 300.8% | $-39,440 (vs do-nothing $-34,200) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 7/8 | $9,450 | $9,058 | 71% | 78% | +$3,047 | -$31,236 | 232.4% | $-31,021 (vs do-nothing $-25,781) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 7/8 | $9,600 | $9,208 | 71% | 78% | +$2,666 | -$36,906 | 274.6% | $-36,691 (vs do-nothing $-31,451) |
| $165 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 7/8 | $9,600 | $9,208 | 68% | 76% | +$2,160 | -$32,916 | 244.9% | $-32,701 (vs do-nothing $-27,461) |
| $165 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.00 | 8/8 | $9,143 | $8,615 | 67% | 76% | +$2,367 | -$36,338 | 270.4% | $-35,344 (vs do-nothing $-30,104) |
| $160 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 5/8 | $9,429 | $9,306 | 66% | 76% | +$2,970 | -$27,011 | 201.0% | $-28,355 (vs do-nothing $-23,115) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 6/8 | $9,321 | $9,064 | 65% | 75% | +$1,937 | -$29,204 | 217.3% | $-29,768 (vs do-nothing $-24,528) |
| $162.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.95 | 8/8 | $10,229 | $9,701 | 64% | 75% | +$2,514 | -$37,578 | 279.6% | $-36,584 (vs do-nothing $-31,344) |
| $160 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.30 | 6/8 | $10,671 | $10,414 | 62% | 73% | +$2,152 | -$30,074 | 223.8% | $-30,638 (vs do-nothing $-25,398) |
| $160 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.85 | 7/8 | $9,850 | $9,458 | 61% | 73% | +$2,192 | -$34,001 | 253.0% | $-33,786 (vs do-nothing $-28,546) |
| $160 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.65 | 8/8 | $9,129 | $8,601 | 61% | 73% | +$1,237 | -$38,218 | 284.4% | $-37,224 (vs do-nothing $-31,984) |
| $157.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 5/8 | $10,929 | $10,806 | 60% | 72% | +$2,602 | -$27,911 | 207.7% | $-29,255 (vs do-nothing $-24,015) |
| $157.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.45 | 5/8 | $10,125 | $10,003 | 58% | 71% | +$1,967 | -$25,736 | 191.5% | $-27,080 (vs do-nothing $-21,840) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.80 | 6/8 | $9,257 | $9,000 | 58% | 72% | +$1,837 | -$30,074 | 223.8% | $-30,638 (vs do-nothing $-25,398) |
| $155 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $11.60 | 8/8 | $9,943 | $9,415 | 55% | 70% | +$252 | -$41,458 | 308.5% | $-40,464 (vs do-nothing $-35,224) |
| $155 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.95 | 6/8 | $10,243 | $9,985 | 55% | 70% | +$1,886 | -$30,884 | 229.8% | $-31,448 (vs do-nothing $-26,208) |
| $155 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 4/8 | $8,957 | $8,970 | 54% | 70% | +$1,489 | -$21,189 | 157.7% | $-23,312 (vs do-nothing $-18,072) |
| $155 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 4/8 | $10,714 | $10,727 | 54% | 70% | +$2,238 | -$22,869 | 170.2% | $-24,992 (vs do-nothing $-19,752) |
| $152.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $13.05 | 7/8 | $9,788 | $9,395 | 52% | 69% | +$415 | -$37,011 | 275.4% | $-36,796 (vs do-nothing $-31,556) |
| $152.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $13.05 | 5/8 | $9,321 | $9,199 | 51% | 69% | +$1,507 | -$26,436 | 196.7% | $-27,780 (vs do-nothing $-22,540) |
| $152.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.55 | 4/8 | $9,900 | $9,913 | 51% | 68% | +$1,392 | -$21,749 | 161.8% | $-23,872 (vs do-nothing $-18,632) |
| $152.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 3/8 | $9,771 | $9,919 | 47% | 67% | +$1,799 | -$17,497 | 130.2% | $-20,399 (vs do-nothing $-15,159) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.