8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $214.18 (banked floor $203.58) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $133,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $150) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $12,160/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $352/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-43,560 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 8d | 7 × $177.50 | 76% | $6,458 | $1,953 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $210 | 25 Sep | 8d | 26.1% | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | +0pp | $96 | $360 | -$6,098 | $2,412 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $210 26.1% OTM over spot $166.53 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.21 mid) = $96 credit for the 8d cycle → $360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $210) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $210.21) 98% EV / mo +$215 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $125/mo median; plan ~$85/mo after 68% keep · $296 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,960 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $228 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.56/sh now → $6.76 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $210 is $4 below CC-SS $214.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $210.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $210)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,639 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $210): -$2,412 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $210): -$742 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,075 (+$41,485 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,889 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-186, the opportunity cost of earning $360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.65 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-10,566 (+$32,994 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $190 | 25 Sep | 8d | 14.1% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +2pp | $656 | $2,460 | -$3,998 | $18,689 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $190 14.1% OTM over spot $166.53 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.86 mid) = $656 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $190.87) 92% EV / mo +$1,149 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,354/mo median; plan ~$920/mo after 68% keep · $4,382 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,847 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $208 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.96/sh now → $5.63 mid-life (likely $4.31–$7.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 302 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $194 (overshoots $3.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $24 below CC-SS $214.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $190.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,639 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $190): -$18,689 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,609 (+$25,951 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,889 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,720, the opportunity cost of earning $2,460/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.65 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,664, position total $-19,324 (+$24,236 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 7 × $182.50 | 25 Sep | 8d | 9.6% | 84%hist 86% | 34%hist 30% | +4pp | $1,092 | $4,095 | -$2,362 | $21,084 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $182.50 9.6% OTM over spot $166.53 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.66 mid) = $1,092 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,095/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $184.16) 86% EV / mo +$1,439 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,087/mo median; plan ~$1,419/mo after 68% keep · $6,622 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,570 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $203 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.40/sh now → $5.23 mid-life (likely $4.75–$7.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 684 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $186 (overshoots $3.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $32 below CC-SS $214.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.56 collected) or spot ≥ $184.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,639 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $182.50): -$21,084 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$371 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,376 (+$23,184 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,889 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,487, the opportunity cost of earning $4,095/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.65 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,313, position total $-22,926 (+$20,634 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $177.50 | 25 Sep | 8d | 6.6% | 76%hist 84% | 49%hist 39% | +3pp | $1,722 | $6,458 | — | $23,954 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $177.50 6.6% OTM over spot $166.53 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $2.55 mid) = $1,722 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,458/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $180.06) 80% EV / mo +$1,833 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,893/mo median; plan ~$1,967/mo after 68% keep · $9,112 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,759 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $203 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.03/sh now → $4.97 mid-life (likely $5.16–$8.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,106 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $181 (overshoots $3.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $37 below CC-SS $214.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.61/sh (~25% of the $2.46 collected) or spot ≥ $180.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,639 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $177.50): -$23,954 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$371 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,246 (+$20,314 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,889 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,357, the opportunity cost of earning $6,458/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.65 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,183, position total $-25,796 (+$17,764 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $170 | 25 Sep | 8d | 2.1% | 61%hist 65% | 81%hist 79% | +11pp | $3,600 | $13,500 | +$7,042 | $31,745 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $170 2.1% OTM over spot $166.53 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $4.67 mid) = $3,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $13,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $174.68) 71% EV / mo +$2,401 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,347/mo median; plan ~$2,956/mo after 68% keep · $15,683 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$80 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $203 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.50/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $5.94–$8.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,919 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $173 (overshoots $3.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $44 below CC-SS $214.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.12/sh (~25% of the $4.50 collected) or spot ≥ $174.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,639 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $170): -$31,745 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,665 (+$12,895 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,889 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,776, the opportunity cost of earning $13,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.65 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,720, position total $-32,380 (+$11,180 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.171 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$44,639 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,889
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $177.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.46 | 7/8 | $6,458 | $6,199 | 76% | 80% | +$1,833 | -$23,954 | 178.2% | $-23,246 (vs do-nothing $-21,357) |
| $175 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 6/8 | $6,750 | $6,586 | 72% | 78% | +$1,953 | -$21,708 | 161.5% | $-21,371 (vs do-nothing $-19,482) |
| $177.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.15 | 8/8 | $6,640 | $6,288 | 71% | 78% | +$1,543 | -$26,025 | 193.6% | $-24,945 (vs do-nothing $-23,056) |
| $177.50 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.70 | 8/8 | $6,218 | $5,866 | 69% | 76% | +$1,343 | -$24,785 | 184.4% | $-23,705 (vs do-nothing $-21,816) |
| $175 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.85 | 7/8 | $6,790 | $6,532 | 68% | 75% | +$1,380 | -$24,031 | 178.8% | $-23,323 (vs do-nothing $-21,434) |
| $172.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.65 | 5/8 | $6,844 | $6,774 | 67% | 75% | +$1,530 | -$19,015 | 141.5% | $-19,049 (vs do-nothing $-17,160) |
| $175 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.40 | 7/8 | $6,109 | $5,851 | 66% | 74% | +$1,108 | -$22,946 | 170.7% | $-22,238 (vs do-nothing $-20,349) |
| $172.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.65 | 6/8 | $6,780 | $6,616 | 63% | 73% | +$1,185 | -$21,618 | 160.9% | $-21,281 (vs do-nothing $-19,392) |
| $172.50 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.25 | 7/8 | $6,920 | $6,662 | 62% | 72% | +$1,090 | -$24,101 | 179.3% | $-23,393 (vs do-nothing $-21,504) |
| $170 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.50 | 4/8 | $6,750 | $6,774 | 61% | 71% | +$1,200 | -$15,872 | 118.1% | $-16,277 (vs do-nothing $-14,388) |
| $170 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.60 | 5/8 | $6,600 | $6,530 | 59% | 70% | +$1,008 | -$18,790 | 139.8% | $-18,824 (vs do-nothing $-16,935) |
| $170 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.30 | 6/8 | $6,791 | $6,627 | 58% | 70% | +$996 | -$21,528 | 160.2% | $-21,191 (vs do-nothing $-19,302) |
| $167.50 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.15 | 5/8 | $6,239 | $6,168 | 55% | 69% | +$670 | -$18,765 | 139.6% | $-18,799 (vs do-nothing $-16,910) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $167.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.50 | 3/8 | $6,188 | $6,305 | 54% | 68% | +$851 | -$12,354 | 91.9% | $-13,130 (vs do-nothing $-11,241) |
| $167.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.60 | 4/8 | $6,080 | $6,104 | 54% | 68% | +$752 | -$15,632 | 116.3% | $-16,037 (vs do-nothing $-14,148) |
| $165 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $10.35 | 5/8 | $7,057 | $6,987 | 51% | 67% | +$671 | -$19,415 | 144.5% | $-19,449 (vs do-nothing $-17,560) |
| $165 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.80 | 4/8 | $7,040 | $7,064 | 50% | 66% | +$740 | -$16,152 | 120.2% | $-16,557 (vs do-nothing $-14,668) |
| $165 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.65 | 3/8 | $7,481 | $7,599 | 48% | 65% | +$758 | -$12,759 | 94.9% | $-13,535 (vs do-nothing $-11,646) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.