8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $215.50 (banked floor $194.81) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $133,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $150) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $14,240/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $192/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-53,672 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Status | Leg | Credit/sh | Credit | Opened | Closed | Close/sh | Banked | Account | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSED | 8x $172.5C 30 Oct 2026 | $2.17 | $1,740 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-29 | $1.41 | $612 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $379 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.62 | $217 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $758 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.56 | $446 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $379 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.59 | $220 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $758 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.56 | $446 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $379 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.59 | $220 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $379 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.56 | $223 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 3x $200C 13 Nov 2026 | $4.07 | $1,220 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-22 | $2.91 | $347 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $200C 13 Nov 2026 | $4.07 | $407 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-22 | $3.08 | $99 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $200C 13 Nov 2026 | $4.07 | $813 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-22 | $3.08 | $197 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $200C 13 Nov 2026 | $4.07 | $813 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-22 | $3.08 | $197 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $512 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.16 | $196 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $512 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.35 | $177 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $1,024 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.35 | $354 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $1,024 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.35 | $354 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $512 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.50 | $162 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $512 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.16 | $196 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 7x $270C 18 Dec 2026 | $8.82 | $6,177 | 2026-09-23 | 2026-10-09 | $2.34 | $4,539 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $270C 18 Dec 2026 | $8.82 | $882 | 2026-09-23 | 2026-10-09 | $2.33 | $649 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $220C 30 Oct 2026 | $8.42 | $6,734 | 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-23 | $8.42 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $187.5C 25 Sep 2026 | $1.67 | $1,338 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-21 | $1.67 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 4x $220C 2 Oct 2026 | $9.43 | $3,773 | 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-17 | $0.44 | $3,597 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 4x $220C 2 Oct 2026 | $9.43 | $3,773 | 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-17 | $0.44 | $3,597 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $195C 4 Sep 2026 | $0.86 | $691 | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-24 | $0.86 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $160C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | $586 | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-20 | $0.73 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 8x $157.5C 14 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | $585 | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-17 | $0.00 | $585 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 28x $165C 14 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | $2,464 | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-13 | $0.88 | $0 | U10001299 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 8x $160C 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | $621 | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $621 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 | $2.68 | $2,148 | 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-03 | $2.68 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $200C 21 Aug 2026 | $10.42 | $8,338 | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-27 | $10.42 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | $1,680 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-22 | $2.10 | $0 | U10001299 | execution |
| UNKNOWN | 25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | $2,766 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-17 | $1.11 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 3x $175C 17 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | $381 | 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-17 | $0.15 | $336 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 5x $175C 17 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | $635 | 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-17 | $0.15 | $560 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 8x $215C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $536 | 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-10 | $0.10 | $456 | U10001299 | execution |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡ | 6 Nov 2026 · 8d | 8 × $175 | 79% | $8,370 | $1,077 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $225 | 6 Nov | 8d | 41.6% | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | -1pp | $56 | $210 | -$8,160 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 ร $225 41.6% OTM over spot $158.93 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $0.11 mid) = $56 credit for the 8d cycle โ $210/mo projected Survival (stays โค $225) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays โค $225.11) 99+% EV / mo +$208 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-153/mo median; plan ~$-104/mo after 68% keep · $-551 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,460 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $244 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $15.05/sh now โ $10.64 mid-life โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $225 is at/above CC-SS $215.50: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot โฅ $225.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $225)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $190.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.23 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $215.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,672 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,619 โ CC assignment net of premium (8 ร $225): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $1,947 (+$55,619 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,132 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,080, the opportunity cost of earning $210/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $198.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-14,845 (+$38,827 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ก safe yield | 8 × $187.50 | 6 Nov | 8d | 18.0% | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 13% | +1pp | $840 | $3,150 | -$5,220 | $21,560 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 ร $187.50 18.0% OTM over spot $158.93 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $1.10 mid) = $840 credit for the 8d cycle โ $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays โค $187.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays โค $188.60) 92% EV / mo +$1,493 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,063/mo median; plan ~$1,403/mo after 68% keep · $4,892 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,477 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $204 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.16/sh now โ $7.90 mid-life (likely $6.83โ$10.88) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 385 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $192 (overshoots $4.73). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $187.50 is $28 below CC-SS $215.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot โฅ $188.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $190.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.23 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $215.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,672 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,619 โ CC assignment net of premium (8 ร $187.50): -$21,560 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,612 (+$34,060 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,132 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,480, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $198.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,896, position total $-22,741 (+$30,931 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $182.50 | 6 Nov | 8d | 14.8% | 87%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | +4pp | $1,256 | $4,710 | -$3,660 | $25,144 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 ร $182.50 14.8% OTM over spot $158.93 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $1.64 mid) = $1,256 credit for the 8d cycle โ $4,710/mo projected Survival (stays โค $182.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays โค $184.14) 89% EV / mo +$1,980 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,948/mo median; plan ~$2,005/mo after 68% keep · $5,528 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.2], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,792 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $201 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.69/sh now โ $7.56 mid-life (likely $7.09โ$11.61) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 563 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $187 (overshoots $5.00). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $33 below CC-SS $215.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.57 collected) or spot โฅ $184.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $190.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.23 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $215.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,672 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,619 โ CC assignment net of premium (8 ร $182.50): -$25,144 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,196 (+$30,476 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,132 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,064, the opportunity cost of earning $4,710/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $198.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,480, position total $-26,325 (+$27,347 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ฏ 50% normal | 8 × $175 | 6 Nov | 8d | 10.1% | 79%hist 83% | 43%hist 40% | +6pp | $2,232 | $8,370 | — | $30,168 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 ร $175 10.1% OTM over spot $158.93 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $2.87 mid) = $2,232 credit for the 8d cycle โ $8,370/mo projected Survival (stays โค $175) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays โค $177.87) 83% EV / mo +$2,778 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,611/mo median; plan ~$3,135/mo after 68% keep · $8,127 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-1.9], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,422 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $196 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.99/sh now โ $7.07 mid-life (likely $7.51โ$11.25) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 978 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $180 (overshoots $4.64). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $40 below CC-SS $215.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.70/sh (~25% of the $2.79 collected) or spot โฅ $177.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $190.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.23 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $215.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,672 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,619 โ CC assignment net of premium (8 ร $175): -$30,168 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,220 (+$25,452 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,132 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,088, the opportunity cost of earning $8,370/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $198.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,504, position total $-31,349 (+$22,323 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $165 | 6 Nov | 8d | 3.8% | 64%hist 66% | 75%hist 68% | +12pp | $4,480 | $16,800 | +$8,430 | $35,920 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 ร $165 3.8% OTM over spot $158.93 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $5.78 mid) = $4,480 credit for the 8d cycle โ $16,800/mo projected Survival (stays โค $165) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays โค $170.78) 73% EV / mo +$3,597 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,275/mo median; plan ~$4,947/mo after 68% keep · $12,864 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.5], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$668 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $201 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.10/sh now โ $6.44 mid-life (likely $8.37โ$11.86) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,778 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $170 (overshoots $4.66). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $50 below CC-SS $215.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.40/sh (~25% of the $5.60 collected) or spot โฅ $170.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $190.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.23 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $215.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,672 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,619 โ CC assignment net of premium (8 ร $165): -$35,920 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,972 (+$19,700 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,132 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,840, the opportunity cost of earning $16,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $198.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,256, position total $-37,101 (+$16,571 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.229 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$55,619 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,132
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.79 | 8/8 | $2,232 | $8,370 | $8,178 | 79%hist 83% | 43%hist 40% | 83% | +$2,778 | -$30,168 | 224.5% | 2.1mo | $-28,220 (vs do-nothing $-26,088) |
| $172.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.35 | 8/8 | $2,680 | $10,050 | $9,858 | 76%hist 83% | 50%hist 40% | 81% | +$3,036 | -$31,720 | 236.0% | 2.2mo | $-29,772 (vs do-nothing $-27,640) |
| $172.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.50 | 8/8 | $3,600 | $7,200 | $7,008 | 73%hist 83% | 57%hist 44% | 78% | +$1,617 | -$30,800 | 229.2% | 2.2mo | $-28,852 (vs do-nothing $-26,720) |
| $170 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.05 | 8/8 | $3,240 | $12,150 | $11,958 | 72%hist 83% | 58%hist 44% | 78% | +$3,419 | -$33,160 | 246.7% | 2.3mo | $-31,212 (vs do-nothing $-29,080) |
| $170 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.20 | 8/8 | $4,160 | $8,320 | $8,128 | 70%hist 66% | 64%hist 54% | 76% | +$1,691 | -$32,240 | 239.9% | 2.3mo | $-30,292 (vs do-nothing $-28,160) |
| $167.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.70 | 8/8 | $3,760 | $14,100 | $13,908 | 68%hist 66% | 66%hist 54% | 76% | +$3,317 | -$34,640 | 257.7% | 2.4mo | $-32,692 (vs do-nothing $-30,560) |
| $170 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $6.75 | 8/8 | $5,400 | $7,364 | $7,172 | 68%hist 66% | 68%hist 54% | 76% | +$1,517 | -$31,000 | 230.7% | 2.2mo | $-29,052 (vs do-nothing $-26,920) |
| $167.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $6.10 | 8/8 | $4,880 | $9,760 | $9,568 | 66%hist 66% | 71%hist 68% | 75% | +$1,927 | -$33,520 | 249.4% | 2.4mo | $-31,572 (vs do-nothing $-29,440) |
| $167.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $7.55 | 8/8 | $6,040 | $8,236 | $8,044 | 65%hist 66% | 74%hist 68% | 74% | +$1,709 | -$32,360 | 240.8% | 2.3mo | $-30,412 (vs do-nothing $-28,280) |
| $165 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $5.60 | 8/8 | $4,480 | $16,800 | $16,608 | 64%hist 66% | 75%hist 68% | 73% | +$3,597 | -$35,920 | 267.3% | 2.5mo | $-33,972 (vs do-nothing $-31,840) |
| $165 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $6.95 | 8/8 | $5,560 | $11,120 | $10,928 | 63%hist 66% | 79%hist 68% | 73% | +$1,913 | -$34,840 | 259.2% | 2.4mo | $-32,892 (vs do-nothing $-30,760) |
| $165 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $8.60 | 8/8 | $6,880 | $9,382 | $9,190 | 62%hist 66% | 82%hist 79% | 72% | +$1,776 | -$33,520 | 249.4% | 2.4mo | $-31,572 (vs do-nothing $-29,440) |
| $162.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $6.50 | 8/8 | $5,200 | $19,500 | $19,308 | 59%hist 70% | 85%hist 79% | 71% | +$3,476 | -$37,200 | 276.8% | 2.6mo | $-35,252 (vs do-nothing $-33,120) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $8.05 | 8/8 | $6,440 | $12,880 | $12,688 | 59%hist 70% | 88%hist 79% | 71% | +$2,118 | -$35,960 | 267.6% | 2.5mo | $-34,012 (vs do-nothing $-31,880) |
| $162.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $9.55 | 8/8 | $7,640 | $10,418 | $10,226 | 58%hist 70% | 89%hist 79% | 71% | +$1,750 | -$34,760 | 258.6% | 2.4mo | $-32,812 (vs do-nothing $-30,680) |
| $160 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $10.70 | 8/8 | $8,560 | $11,673 | $11,481 | 55%hist 70% | 97%hist 89% | 69% | +$1,908 | -$35,840 | 266.7% | 2.5mo | $-33,892 (vs do-nothing $-31,760) |
| $160 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $8.90 | 8/8 | $7,120 | $14,240 | $14,048 | 55%hist 70% | 96%hist 89% | 69% | +$1,733 | -$37,280 | 277.4% | 2.6mo | $-35,332 (vs do-nothing $-33,200) |
| $160 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $7.70 | 8/8 | $6,160 | $23,100 | $22,908 | 55%hist 70% | 96%hist 89% | 69% | +$3,831 | -$38,240 | 284.5% | 2.7mo | $-36,292 (vs do-nothing $-34,160) |
| $157.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $11.85 | 8/8 | $9,480 | $12,927 | $12,735 | 51%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 68% | +$1,812 | -$36,920 | 274.7% | 2.6mo | $-34,972 (vs do-nothing $-32,840) |
| $157.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $10.10 | 8/8 | $8,080 | $16,160 | $15,968 | 51%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 67% | +$1,711 | -$38,320 | 285.1% | 2.7mo | $-36,372 (vs do-nothing $-34,240) |
| $157.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $8.80 | 8/8 | $7,040 | $26,400 | $26,208 | 50% | 100%hist 89% | 67% | +$3,445 | -$39,360 | 292.9% | 2.8mo | $-37,412 (vs do-nothing $-35,280) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS | Why not eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $470 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $11 | $-181 | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | 100% | +$10 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,955 (vs do-nothing +$4,088) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $285 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $30 | $-162 | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | 100% | +$27 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,955 (vs do-nothing +$4,088) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $225 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.07 | 8/8 | $56 | $210 | $18 | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | 100% | +$208 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $2,003 (vs do-nothing +$4,136) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $260 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.02 | 8/8 | $16 | $32 | $-160 | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | 100% | +$28 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,963 (vs do-nothing +$4,096) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $300 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.03 | 8/8 | $24 | $33 | $-159 | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | 100% | +$26 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,971 (vs do-nothing +$4,104) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $217.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 8/8 | $40 | $150 | $-42 | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | 100% | +$143 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,987 (vs do-nothing +$4,120) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $290 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 8/8 | $40 | $55 | $-137 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$46 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,987 (vs do-nothing +$4,120) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $260 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $30 | $-162 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$13 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,955 (vs do-nothing +$4,088) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $212.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $30 | $-162 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$12 | -$2,392 | 17.8% | 0.2mo | $-444 (vs do-nothing +$1,688) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $240 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.03 | 8/8 | $24 | $48 | $-144 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$23 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,971 (vs do-nothing +$4,104) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $260 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $11 | $-181 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | $-17 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,955 (vs do-nothing +$4,088) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $230 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.06 | 8/8 | $48 | $180 | $-12 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$129 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,995 (vs do-nothing +$4,128) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $227.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.03 | 8/8 | $24 | $90 | $-102 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$35 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,971 (vs do-nothing +$4,104) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $250 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 8/8 | $96 | $131 | $-61 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$86 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $2,043 (vs do-nothing +$4,176) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $230 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.03 | 8/8 | $24 | $48 | $-144 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | $-10 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,971 (vs do-nothing +$4,104) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $220 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.10 | 8/8 | $80 | $300 | $108 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$176 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $2,027 (vs do-nothing +$4,160) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $240 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.21 | 8/8 | $168 | $229 | $37 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$153 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $2,115 (vs do-nothing +$4,248) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $225 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 8/8 | $96 | $192 | $0 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$104 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $2,043 (vs do-nothing +$4,176) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $215 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.04 | 8/8 | $32 | $120 | $-72 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | $-36 | -$368 | 2.7% | 0.0mo | $1,580 (vs do-nothing +$3,712) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $222.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.08 | 8/8 | $64 | $128 | $-64 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | +$20 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $2,011 (vs do-nothing +$4,144) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $220 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 8/8 | $40 | $80 | $-112 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | $-53 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,987 (vs do-nothing +$4,120) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $230 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.33 | 8/8 | $264 | $360 | $168 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$228 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $2,211 (vs do-nothing +$4,344) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $197.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.49 | 8/8 | $392 | $1,470 | $1,278 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$1,265 | -$14,008 | 104.2% | 1.0mo | $-12,060 (vs do-nothing $-9,928) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $210 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.11 | 8/8 | $88 | $330 | $138 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$13 | -$4,312 | 32.1% | 0.3mo | $-2,364 (vs do-nothing $-232) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $215 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 8/8 | $96 | $192 | $0 | 97%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | $-8 | -$304 | 2.3% | 0.0mo | $1,644 (vs do-nothing +$3,776) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $225 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.32 | 8/8 | $256 | $349 | $157 | 97%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 97% | +$171 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $2,203 (vs do-nothing +$4,336) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $212.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.41 | 8/8 | $328 | $656 | $464 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$410 | -$2,072 | 15.4% | 0.1mo | $-124 (vs do-nothing +$2,008) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $205 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.21 | 8/8 | $168 | $630 | $438 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$238 | -$8,232 | 61.2% | 0.6mo | $-6,284 (vs do-nothing $-4,152) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $220 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.55 | 8/8 | $440 | $600 | $408 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$361 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $2,387 (vs do-nothing +$4,520) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $202.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.18 | 8/8 | $144 | $540 | $348 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$96 | -$10,256 | 76.3% | 0.7mo | $-8,308 (vs do-nothing $-6,176) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $210 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.40 | 8/8 | $320 | $640 | $448 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$339 | -$4,080 | 30.4% | 0.3mo | $-2,132 (vs do-nothing +$0) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $200 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.41 | 8/8 | $328 | $1,230 | $1,038 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$702 | -$12,072 | 89.8% | 0.8mo | $-10,124 (vs do-nothing $-7,992) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $207.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.55 | 8/8 | $440 | $880 | $688 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$511 | -$5,960 | 44.3% | 0.4mo | $-4,012 (vs do-nothing $-1,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $215 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.68 | 8/8 | $544 | $742 | $550 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$413 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $2,092 (vs do-nothing +$4,224) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $205 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.61 | 8/8 | $488 | $976 | $784 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 4% | 96% | +$524 | -$7,912 | 58.9% | 0.6mo | $-5,964 (vs do-nothing $-3,832) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $195 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.55 | 8/8 | $440 | $1,650 | $1,458 | 95%hist 95% | 11%hist 13% | 95% | +$873 | -$15,960 | 118.7% | 1.1mo | $-14,012 (vs do-nothing $-11,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $210 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.87 | 8/8 | $696 | $949 | $757 | 95%hist 95% | 11%hist 13% | 95% | +$500 | -$3,704 | 27.6% | 0.3mo | $-1,756 (vs do-nothing +$376) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $202.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.69 | 8/8 | $552 | $1,104 | $912 | 95%hist 95% | 11%hist 13% | 95% | +$550 | -$9,848 | 73.3% | 0.7mo | $-7,900 (vs do-nothing $-5,768) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $200 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.82 | 8/8 | $656 | $1,312 | $1,120 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$634 | -$11,744 | 87.4% | 0.8mo | $-9,796 (vs do-nothing $-7,664) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $192.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.68 | 8/8 | $544 | $2,040 | $1,848 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$1,041 | -$17,856 | 132.9% | 1.3mo | $-15,908 (vs do-nothing $-13,776) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $205 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.12 | 8/8 | $896 | $1,222 | $1,030 | 93%hist 95% | 14%hist 13% | 94% | +$596 | -$7,504 | 55.8% | 0.5mo | $-5,556 (vs do-nothing $-3,424) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $197.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.95 | 8/8 | $760 | $1,520 | $1,328 | 93%hist 95% | 15%hist 13% | 93% | +$690 | -$13,640 | 101.5% | 1.0mo | $-11,692 (vs do-nothing $-9,560) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $190 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.84 | 8/8 | $672 | $2,520 | $2,328 | 92%hist 95% | 15%hist 13% | 93% | +$1,233 | -$19,728 | 146.8% | 1.4mo | $-17,780 (vs do-nothing $-15,648) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $202.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.29 | 8/8 | $1,032 | $1,407 | $1,215 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 13% | 93% | +$670 | -$9,368 | 69.7% | 0.7mo | $-7,420 (vs do-nothing $-5,288) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $195 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.15 | 8/8 | $920 | $1,840 | $1,648 | 92%hist 95% | 17%hist 13% | 92% | +$826 | -$15,480 | 115.2% | 1.1mo | $-13,532 (vs do-nothing $-11,400) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $200 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.50 | 8/8 | $1,200 | $1,636 | $1,444 | 91%hist 95% | 18%hist 13% | 92% | +$774 | -$11,200 | 83.3% | 0.8mo | $-9,252 (vs do-nothing $-7,120) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $187.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.05 | 8/8 | $840 | $3,150 | $2,958 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 13% | 92% | +$1,493 | -$21,560 | 160.4% | 1.5mo | $-19,612 (vs do-nothing $-17,480) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $192.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.37 | 8/8 | $1,096 | $2,192 | $2,000 | 90%hist 95% | 20%hist 13% | 91% | +$954 | -$17,304 | 128.7% | 1.2mo | $-15,356 (vs do-nothing $-13,224) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $197.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.63 | 8/8 | $1,304 | $1,778 | $1,586 | 90%hist 95% | 20%hist 23% | 91% | +$755 | -$13,096 | 97.4% | 0.9mo | $-11,148 (vs do-nothing $-9,016) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $185 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.33 | 8/8 | $1,064 | $3,990 | $3,798 | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 23% | 90% | +$1,860 | -$23,336 | 173.6% | 1.6mo | $-21,388 (vs do-nothing $-19,256) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $195 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.88 | 8/8 | $1,504 | $2,051 | $1,859 | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 23% | 90% | +$853 | -$14,896 | 110.8% | 1.0mo | $-12,948 (vs do-nothing $-10,816) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $190 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.55 | 8/8 | $1,240 | $2,480 | $2,288 | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 23% | 90% | +$972 | -$19,160 | 142.6% | 1.3mo | $-17,212 (vs do-nothing $-15,080) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $192.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.21 | 8/8 | $1,768 | $2,411 | $2,219 | 88%hist 86% | 25%hist 23% | 89% | +$1,049 | -$16,632 | 123.7% | 1.2mo | $-14,684 (vs do-nothing $-12,552) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $187.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.77 | 8/8 | $1,416 | $2,832 | $2,640 | 87%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | +$998 | -$20,984 | 156.1% | 1.5mo | $-19,036 (vs do-nothing $-16,904) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $182.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.57 | 8/8 | $1,256 | $4,710 | $4,518 | 87%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | +$1,980 | -$25,144 | 187.1% | 1.8mo | $-23,196 (vs do-nothing $-21,064) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $190 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.48 | 8/8 | $1,984 | $2,705 | $2,513 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 23% | 88% | +$1,046 | -$18,416 | 137.0% | 1.3mo | $-16,468 (vs do-nothing $-14,336) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $185 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.24 | 8/8 | $1,792 | $3,584 | $3,392 | 85%hist 86% | 30%hist 30% | 87% | +$1,359 | -$22,608 | 168.2% | 1.6mo | $-20,660 (vs do-nothing $-18,528) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $180 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.90 | 8/8 | $1,520 | $5,700 | $5,508 | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | 87% | +$2,214 | -$26,880 | 200.0% | 1.9mo | $-24,932 (vs do-nothing $-22,800) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $187.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.82 | 8/8 | $2,256 | $3,076 | $2,884 | 85%hist 86% | 32%hist 30% | 87% | +$1,146 | -$20,144 | 149.9% | 1.4mo | $-18,196 (vs do-nothing $-16,064) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $182.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.47 | 8/8 | $1,976 | $3,952 | $3,760 | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 30% | 86% | +$1,259 | -$24,424 | 181.7% | 1.7mo | $-22,476 (vs do-nothing $-20,344) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $185 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.25 | 8/8 | $2,600 | $3,545 | $3,353 | 83%hist 86% | 36%hist 30% | 85% | +$1,246 | -$21,800 | 162.2% | 1.5mo | $-19,852 (vs do-nothing $-17,720) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $177.50 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.31 | 8/8 | $1,848 | $6,930 | $6,738 | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 30% | 85% | +$2,502 | -$28,552 | 212.4% | 2.0mo | $-26,604 (vs do-nothing $-24,472) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $180 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.88 | 8/8 | $2,304 | $4,608 | $4,416 | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | 84% | +$1,359 | -$26,096 | 194.2% | 1.8mo | $-24,148 (vs do-nothing $-22,016) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $182.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.60 | 8/8 | $2,880 | $3,927 | $3,735 | 81%hist 86% | 40%hist 40% | 84% | +$1,232 | -$23,520 | 175.0% | 1.7mo | $-21,572 (vs do-nothing $-19,440) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $180 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $4.15 | 8/8 | $3,320 | $4,527 | $4,335 | 79%hist 83% | 45%hist 40% | 82% | +$1,395 | -$25,080 | 186.6% | 1.8mo | $-23,132 (vs do-nothing $-21,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $177.50 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.35 | 8/8 | $2,680 | $5,360 | $5,168 | 79%hist 83% | 45%hist 40% | 82% | +$1,453 | -$27,720 | 206.2% | 1.9mo | $-25,772 (vs do-nothing $-23,640) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $177.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $4.70 | 8/8 | $3,760 | $5,127 | $4,935 | 76%hist 83% | 50%hist 44% | 81% | +$1,468 | -$26,640 | 198.2% | 1.9mo | $-24,692 (vs do-nothing $-22,560) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $175 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.90 | 8/8 | $3,120 | $6,240 | $6,048 | 76%hist 83% | 51%hist 44% | 80% | +$1,560 | -$29,280 | 217.9% | 2.1mo | $-27,332 (vs do-nothing $-25,200) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $175 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $5.25 | 8/8 | $4,200 | $5,727 | $5,535 | 74%hist 83% | 56%hist 44% | 79% | +$1,455 | -$28,200 | 209.8% | 2.0mo | $-26,252 (vs do-nothing $-24,120) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $172.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $6.00 | 8/8 | $4,800 | $6,545 | $6,353 | 71%hist 83% | 61%hist 54% | 78% | +$1,652 | -$29,600 | 220.2% | 2.1mo | $-27,652 (vs do-nothing $-25,520) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.