8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $218.12 (banked floor $197.34) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $133,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $150) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $12,840/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $495/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-74,476 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Status | Leg | Credit/sh | Credit | Opened | Closed | Close/sh | Banked | Account | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSED | 8x $172.5C 30 Oct 2026 | $2.17 | $1,740 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-29 | $1.41 | $612 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $379 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.62 | $217 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $758 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.56 | $446 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $379 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.59 | $220 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $758 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.56 | $446 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $379 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.59 | $220 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $195C 13 Nov 2026 | $3.79 | $379 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-26 | $1.56 | $223 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 3x $200C 13 Nov 2026 | $4.07 | $1,220 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-22 | $2.91 | $347 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $200C 13 Nov 2026 | $4.07 | $407 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-22 | $3.08 | $99 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $200C 13 Nov 2026 | $4.07 | $813 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-22 | $3.08 | $197 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $200C 13 Nov 2026 | $4.07 | $813 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-22 | $3.08 | $197 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $512 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.16 | $196 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $512 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.35 | $177 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $1,024 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.35 | $354 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $1,024 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.35 | $354 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $512 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.50 | $162 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $205C 13 Nov 2026 | $5.12 | $512 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-20 | $3.16 | $196 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 7x $270C 18 Dec 2026 | $8.82 | $6,177 | 2026-09-23 | 2026-10-09 | $2.34 | $4,539 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $270C 18 Dec 2026 | $8.82 | $882 | 2026-09-23 | 2026-10-09 | $2.33 | $649 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $220C 30 Oct 2026 | $8.42 | $6,734 | 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-23 | $8.42 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $187.5C 25 Sep 2026 | $1.67 | $1,338 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-21 | $1.67 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 4x $220C 2 Oct 2026 | $9.43 | $3,773 | 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-17 | $0.44 | $3,597 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 4x $220C 2 Oct 2026 | $9.43 | $3,773 | 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-17 | $0.44 | $3,597 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $195C 4 Sep 2026 | $0.86 | $691 | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-24 | $0.86 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $160C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | $586 | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-20 | $0.73 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 8x $157.5C 14 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | $585 | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-17 | $0.00 | $585 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 28x $165C 14 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | $2,464 | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-13 | $0.88 | $0 | U10001299 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 8x $160C 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | $621 | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $621 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 | $2.68 | $2,148 | 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-03 | $2.68 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $200C 21 Aug 2026 | $10.42 | $8,338 | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-27 | $10.42 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | $1,680 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-22 | $2.10 | $0 | U10001299 | execution |
| UNKNOWN | 25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | $2,766 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-17 | $1.11 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 3x $175C 17 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | $381 | 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-17 | $0.15 | $336 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 5x $175C 17 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | $635 | 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-17 | $0.15 | $560 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 8x $215C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $536 | 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-10 | $0.10 | $456 | U10001299 | execution |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 6 Nov 2026 · 7d | 8 × $150 | 77% | $7,166 | $1,586 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $175 | 6 Nov | 7d | 25.8% | 97%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | +0pp | $160 | $686 | -$6,480 | $34,336 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $175 25.8% OTM over spot $139.16 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.26 mid) = $160 credit for the 7d cycle → $686/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $175.25) 97% EV / mo +$425 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $40/mo median; plan ~$27/mo after 68% keep · $110 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.3-3.9], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,979 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026) $201 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.08/sh now → $6.42 mid-life (likely $4.48–$7.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 60 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $179 (overshoots $3.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $43 below CC-SS $218.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $175.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.21 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-74,476 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$76,244 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $175): -$34,336 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,568 (+$41,908 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,848, the opportunity cost of earning $686/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $167.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-46,918 (+$27,558 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $160 | 6 Nov | 7d | 15.0% | 90%hist 95% | 20%hist 23% | +4pp | $576 | $2,469 | -$4,697 | $45,920 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $160 15.0% OTM over spot $139.16 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.79 mid) = $576 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,469/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $160.79) 91% EV / mo +$890 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,079/mo median; plan ~$733/mo after 68% keep · $5,986 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.8], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,850 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026) $181 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.82/sh now → $5.53 mid-life (likely $4.66–$7.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 406 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $164 (overshoots $3.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $58 below CC-SS $218.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $160.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.21 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-74,476 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$76,244 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $160): -$45,920 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,152 (+$30,324 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,432, the opportunity cost of earning $2,469/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $167.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,584, position total $-52,502 (+$21,974 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $155 | 6 Nov | 7d | 11.4% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | +6pp | $1,008 | $4,320 | -$2,846 | $49,488 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $155 11.4% OTM over spot $139.16 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $1.34 mid) = $1,008 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $156.34) 86% EV / mo +$1,311 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,797/mo median; plan ~$1,222/mo after 68% keep · $10,867 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.3-4.3], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,192 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026) $176 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.42/sh now → $5.25 mid-life (likely $5.07–$8.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 686 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $159 (overshoots $4.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $63 below CC-SS $218.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.26 collected) or spot ≥ $156.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.21 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-74,476 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$76,244 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $155): -$49,488 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,720 (+$26,756 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,000, the opportunity cost of earning $4,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $167.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,152, position total $-56,070 (+$18,406 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $150 | 6 Nov | 7d | 7.8% | 77%hist 83% | 48%hist 40% | +8pp | $1,672 | $7,166 | — | $52,824 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $150 7.8% OTM over spot $139.16 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $2.21 mid) = $1,672 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,166/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $150) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $152.21) 81% EV / mo +$1,569 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,627/mo median; plan ~$1,787/mo after 68% keep · $14,945 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,308 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026) $176 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.03/sh now → $4.97 mid-life (likely $5.42–$8.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,064 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $154 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $150 is $68 below CC-SS $218.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.09 collected) or spot ≥ $152.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.21 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-74,476 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$76,244 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $150): -$52,824 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,056 (+$23,420 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,336, the opportunity cost of earning $7,166/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $167.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,488, position total $-59,406 (+$15,070 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $144 | 6 Nov | 7d | 3.5% | 64%hist 66% | 74%hist 68% | +11pp | $3,080 | $13,200 | +$6,034 | $56,216 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $144 3.5% OTM over spot $139.16 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $4.03 mid) = $3,080 credit for the 7d cycle → $13,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $144) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $148.03) 73% EV / mo +$2,138 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,951/mo median; plan ~$2,687/mo after 68% keep · $22,145 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.2-4.6], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$642 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026) $180 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.58/sh now → $4.65 mid-life (likely $5.86–$8.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,716 simulated challenges: the $144 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $148 (overshoots $3.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $144 is $74 below CC-SS $218.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.96/sh (~25% of the $3.85 collected) or spot ≥ $148.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $144)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.21 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-74,476 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$76,244 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $144): -$56,216 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-54,448 (+$20,028 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,728, the opportunity cost of earning $13,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $167.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,880, position total $-62,798 (+$11,678 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.207 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$76,244 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,720
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.09 | 8/8 | $1,672 | $7,166 | $6,671 | 77%hist 83% | 48%hist 40% | 81% | +$1,569 | -$52,824 | 393.0% | 4.1mo | $-51,056 (vs do-nothing $-46,336) |
| $149 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.36 | 8/8 | $1,888 | $8,091 | $7,597 | 75%hist 83% | 52%hist 44% | 79% | +$1,787 | -$53,408 | 397.4% | 4.2mo | $-51,640 (vs do-nothing $-46,920) |
| $148 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.53 | 8/8 | $2,024 | $8,674 | $8,180 | 73%hist 83% | 56%hist 44% | 78% | +$1,587 | -$54,072 | 402.3% | 4.2mo | $-52,304 (vs do-nothing $-47,584) |
| $147 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.87 | 8/8 | $2,296 | $9,840 | $9,345 | 71%hist 83% | 60%hist 54% | 77% | +$1,890 | -$54,600 | 406.3% | 4.3mo | $-52,832 (vs do-nothing $-48,112) |
| $149 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.95 | 8/8 | $3,160 | $6,771 | $6,277 | 71%hist 83% | 61%hist 54% | 77% | +$1,395 | -$52,136 | 387.9% | 4.1mo | $-50,368 (vs do-nothing $-45,648) |
| $148 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.25 | 8/8 | $3,400 | $7,286 | $6,791 | 69%hist 66% | 65%hist 54% | 76% | +$1,440 | -$52,696 | 392.1% | 4.1mo | $-50,928 (vs do-nothing $-46,208) |
| $146 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.15 | 8/8 | $2,520 | $10,800 | $10,305 | 69%hist 66% | 65%hist 54% | 76% | +$1,903 | -$55,176 | 410.5% | 4.3mo | $-53,408 (vs do-nothing $-48,688) |
| $147 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.55 | 8/8 | $3,640 | $7,800 | $7,305 | 68%hist 66% | 68%hist 54% | 75% | +$1,451 | -$53,256 | 396.3% | 4.1mo | $-51,488 (vs do-nothing $-46,768) |
| $145 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.50 | 8/8 | $2,800 | $12,000 | $11,505 | 67%hist 66% | 69%hist 54% | 74% | +$2,067 | -$55,696 | 414.4% | 4.3mo | $-53,928 (vs do-nothing $-49,208) |
| $146 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.90 | 8/8 | $3,920 | $8,400 | $7,905 | 66%hist 66% | 72%hist 68% | 75% | +$1,512 | -$53,776 | 400.1% | 4.2mo | $-52,008 (vs do-nothing $-47,288) |
| $144 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.85 | 8/8 | $3,080 | $13,200 | $12,705 | 64%hist 66% | 74%hist 68% | 73% | +$2,138 | -$56,216 | 418.3% | 4.4mo | $-54,448 (vs do-nothing $-49,728) |
| $145 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.20 | 8/8 | $4,160 | $8,914 | $8,420 | 64%hist 66% | 76%hist 68% | 73% | +$1,449 | -$54,336 | 404.3% | 4.2mo | $-52,568 (vs do-nothing $-47,848) |
| $145 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $6.75 | 8/8 | $5,400 | $7,714 | $7,220 | 63%hist 66% | 79%hist 68% | 73% | +$1,331 | -$53,096 | 395.1% | 4.1mo | $-51,328 (vs do-nothing $-46,608) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $7.70 | 8/8 | $6,160 | $6,600 | $6,105 | 62%hist 66% | 81%hist 79% | 73% | +$1,049 | -$52,336 | 389.4% | 4.1mo | $-50,568 (vs do-nothing $-45,848) |
| $144 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.60 | 8/8 | $4,480 | $9,600 | $9,105 | 62%hist 66% | 80%hist 68% | 72% | +$1,520 | -$54,816 | 407.9% | 4.3mo | $-53,048 (vs do-nothing $-48,328) |
| $143 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.20 | 8/8 | $3,360 | $14,400 | $13,905 | 62%hist 66% | 79%hist 68% | 72% | +$2,111 | -$56,736 | 422.1% | 4.4mo | $-54,968 (vs do-nothing $-50,248) |
| $143 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.95 | 8/8 | $4,760 | $10,200 | $9,705 | 60%hist 66% | 84%hist 79% | 71% | +$1,465 | -$55,336 | 411.7% | 4.3mo | $-53,568 (vs do-nothing $-48,848) |
| $142 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.60 | 8/8 | $3,680 | $15,771 | $15,277 | 59%hist 70% | 85%hist 79% | 70% | +$2,156 | -$57,216 | 425.7% | 4.5mo | $-55,448 (vs do-nothing $-50,728) |
| $142 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $6.40 | 8/8 | $5,120 | $10,971 | $10,477 | 58%hist 70% | 88%hist 79% | 70% | +$1,542 | -$55,776 | 415.0% | 4.3mo | $-54,008 (vs do-nothing $-49,288) |
| $141 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $5.05 | 8/8 | $4,040 | $17,314 | $16,820 | 57%hist 70% | 90%hist 79% | 69% | +$2,268 | -$57,656 | 429.0% | 4.5mo | $-55,888 (vs do-nothing $-51,168) |
| $141 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $6.80 | 8/8 | $5,440 | $11,657 | $11,162 | 56%hist 70% | 92%hist 89% | 69% | +$1,491 | -$56,256 | 418.6% | 4.4mo | $-54,488 (vs do-nothing $-49,768) |
| $140 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $9.85 | 8/8 | $7,880 | $8,443 | $7,948 | 55%hist 70% | 97%hist 89% | 69% | +$925 | -$54,616 | 406.4% | 4.3mo | $-52,848 (vs do-nothing $-48,128) |
| $140 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $8.95 | 8/8 | $7,160 | $10,229 | $9,734 | 55%hist 70% | 97%hist 89% | 69% | +$1,438 | -$55,336 | 411.7% | 4.3mo | $-53,568 (vs do-nothing $-48,848) |
| $140 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $7.20 | 8/8 | $5,760 | $12,343 | $11,848 | 55%hist 70% | 96%hist 89% | 68% | +$1,398 | -$56,736 | 422.1% | 4.4mo | $-54,968 (vs do-nothing $-50,248) |
| $140 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $5.55 | 8/8 | $4,440 | $19,029 | $18,534 | 54%hist 70% | 95%hist 89% | 68% | +$2,445 | -$58,056 | 432.0% | 4.5mo | $-56,288 (vs do-nothing $-51,568) |
| $139 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $7.65 | 8/8 | $6,120 | $13,114 | $12,620 | 53%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 67% | +$1,349 | -$57,176 | 425.4% | 4.5mo | $-55,408 (vs do-nothing $-50,688) |
| $139 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $6.05 | 8/8 | $4,840 | $20,743 | $20,248 | 52%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 67% | +$2,515 | -$58,456 | 434.9% | 4.6mo | $-56,688 (vs do-nothing $-51,968) |
| $138 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $8.20 | 8/8 | $6,560 | $14,057 | $13,562 | 51%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 67% | +$1,429 | -$57,536 | 428.1% | 4.5mo | $-55,768 (vs do-nothing $-51,048) |
| $138 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $6.55 | 8/8 | $5,240 | $22,457 | $21,962 | 49% | 100%hist 89% | 66% | +$2,476 | -$58,856 | 437.9% | 4.6mo | $-57,088 (vs do-nothing $-52,368) |
| $137 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $8.70 | 8/8 | $6,960 | $14,914 | $14,420 | 49% | 100%hist 89% | 66% | +$1,379 | -$57,936 | 431.1% | 4.5mo | $-56,168 (vs do-nothing $-51,448) |
| $137 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $6.95 | 8/8 | $5,560 | $23,829 | $23,334 | 47% | 100%hist 89% | 65% | +$1,986 | -$59,336 | 441.5% | 4.6mo | $-57,568 (vs do-nothing $-52,848) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS | Why not eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.03 | 8/8 | $24 | $34 | $-460 | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | 100% | +$28 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,792 (vs do-nothing +$6,512) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $250 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.02 | 8/8 | $16 | $34 | $-460 | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | 100% | +$27 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,784 (vs do-nothing +$6,504) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $220 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.02 | 8/8 | $16 | $69 | $-426 | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | 100% | +$57 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,784 (vs do-nothing +$6,504) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $240 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 8/8 | $40 | $86 | $-409 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$70 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,808 (vs do-nothing +$6,528) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $270 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.04 | 8/8 | $32 | $46 | $-449 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$29 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,800 (vs do-nothing +$6,520) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $260 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 8/8 | $40 | $57 | $-438 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$41 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,808 (vs do-nothing +$6,528) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $250 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 8/8 | $40 | $57 | $-438 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$42 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,808 (vs do-nothing +$6,528) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $207.50 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $34 | $-460 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$6 | -$8,488 | 63.2% | 0.7mo | $-6,720 (vs do-nothing $-2,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $205 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.03 | 8/8 | $24 | $103 | $-392 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$70 | -$10,472 | 77.9% | 0.8mo | $-8,704 (vs do-nothing $-3,984) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $230 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.03 | 8/8 | $24 | $51 | $-443 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$25 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,792 (vs do-nothing +$6,512) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $240 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.07 | 8/8 | $56 | $80 | $-415 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$56 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,824 (vs do-nothing +$6,544) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $240 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 8/8 | $96 | $103 | $-392 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$82 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,864 (vs do-nothing +$6,584) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $200 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.04 | 8/8 | $32 | $137 | $-358 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$93 | -$14,464 | 107.6% | 1.1mo | $-12,696 (vs do-nothing $-7,976) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $220 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $17 | $-478 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | $-20 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,776 (vs do-nothing +$6,496) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $197.50 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $34 | $-460 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | $-16 | -$16,488 | 122.7% | 1.3mo | $-14,720 (vs do-nothing $-10,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $230 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.10 | 8/8 | $80 | $114 | $-380 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$82 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,848 (vs do-nothing +$6,568) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $195 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $34 | $-460 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | $-23 | -$18,488 | 137.6% | 1.4mo | $-16,720 (vs do-nothing $-12,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $215 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $17 | $-478 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | $-28 | -$2,488 | 18.5% | 0.2mo | $-720 (vs do-nothing +$4,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $225 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.06 | 8/8 | $48 | $69 | $-426 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$30 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,816 (vs do-nothing +$6,536) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $192.50 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 8/8 | $40 | $171 | $-323 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$105 | -$20,456 | 152.2% | 1.6mo | $-18,688 (vs do-nothing $-13,968) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $210 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $17 | $-478 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | $-40 | -$6,488 | 48.3% | 0.5mo | $-4,720 (vs do-nothing +$0) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $190 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 8/8 | $40 | $171 | $-323 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$95 | -$22,456 | 167.1% | 1.7mo | $-20,688 (vs do-nothing $-15,968) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $220 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 8/8 | $96 | $137 | $-358 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$90 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,864 (vs do-nothing +$6,584) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $202.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.07 | 8/8 | $56 | $120 | $-375 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$66 | -$12,440 | 92.6% | 1.0mo | $-10,672 (vs do-nothing $-5,952) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $207.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 8/8 | $8 | $17 | $-478 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | $-48 | -$8,488 | 63.2% | 0.7mo | $-6,720 (vs do-nothing $-2,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $187.50 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 8/8 | $40 | $171 | $-323 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$81 | -$24,456 | 182.0% | 1.9mo | $-22,688 (vs do-nothing $-17,968) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $215 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.13 | 8/8 | $104 | $149 | $-346 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$90 | -$2,392 | 17.8% | 0.2mo | $-624 (vs do-nothing +$4,096) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $205 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.06 | 8/8 | $48 | $103 | $-392 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$29 | -$10,448 | 77.7% | 0.8mo | $-8,680 (vs do-nothing $-3,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $200 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.10 | 8/8 | $80 | $171 | $-323 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$103 | -$14,416 | 107.3% | 1.1mo | $-12,648 (vs do-nothing $-7,928) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $197.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.02 | 8/8 | $16 | $34 | $-460 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | $-36 | -$16,480 | 122.6% | 1.3mo | $-14,712 (vs do-nothing $-9,992) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $185 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.07 | 8/8 | $56 | $240 | $-255 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$132 | -$26,440 | 196.7% | 2.1mo | $-24,672 (vs do-nothing $-19,952) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $210 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.19 | 8/8 | $152 | $217 | $-278 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$141 | -$6,344 | 47.2% | 0.5mo | $-4,576 (vs do-nothing +$144) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $182.50 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.13 | 8/8 | $104 | $446 | $-49 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$315 | -$28,392 | 211.3% | 2.2mo | $-26,624 (vs do-nothing $-21,904) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $225 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 8/8 | $96 | $103 | $-392 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | +$14 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,864 (vs do-nothing +$6,584) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $195 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.03 | 8/8 | $24 | $51 | $-443 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | $-60 | -$18,472 | 137.4% | 1.4mo | $-16,704 (vs do-nothing $-11,984) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $180 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.14 | 8/8 | $112 | $480 | $-15 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$319 | -$30,384 | 226.1% | 2.4mo | $-28,616 (vs do-nothing $-23,896) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $205 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.23 | 8/8 | $184 | $263 | $-232 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$162 | -$10,312 | 76.7% | 0.8mo | $-8,544 (vs do-nothing $-3,824) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $220 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $0.20 | 8/8 | $160 | $171 | $-323 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$70 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,928 (vs do-nothing +$6,648) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $192.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.06 | 8/8 | $48 | $103 | $-392 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | $-35 | -$20,448 | 152.1% | 1.6mo | $-18,680 (vs do-nothing $-13,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $210 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $0.18 | 8/8 | $144 | $154 | $-340 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$54 | -$6,352 | 47.3% | 0.5mo | $-4,584 (vs do-nothing +$136) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $185 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.20 | 8/8 | $160 | $343 | $-152 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$229 | -$26,336 | 196.0% | 2.1mo | $-24,568 (vs do-nothing $-19,848) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $202.50 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.24 | 8/8 | $192 | $274 | $-220 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$158 | -$12,304 | 91.5% | 1.0mo | $-10,536 (vs do-nothing $-5,816) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $177.50 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.10 | 8/8 | $80 | $343 | $-152 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$140 | -$32,416 | 241.2% | 2.5mo | $-30,648 (vs do-nothing $-25,928) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $200 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.30 | 8/8 | $240 | $343 | $-152 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$207 | -$14,256 | 106.1% | 1.1mo | $-12,488 (vs do-nothing $-7,768) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $197.50 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.34 | 8/8 | $272 | $389 | $-106 | 97%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 97% | +$230 | -$16,224 | 120.7% | 1.3mo | $-14,456 (vs do-nothing $-9,736) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $175 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.20 | 8/8 | $160 | $686 | $191 | 97%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 97% | +$425 | -$34,336 | 255.5% | 2.7mo | $-32,568 (vs do-nothing $-27,848) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $190 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.25 | 8/8 | $200 | $429 | $-66 | 97%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 97% | +$224 | -$22,296 | 165.9% | 1.7mo | $-20,528 (vs do-nothing $-15,808) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $195 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.34 | 8/8 | $272 | $389 | $-106 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$203 | -$18,224 | 135.6% | 1.4mo | $-16,456 (vs do-nothing $-11,736) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $192.50 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.28 | 8/8 | $224 | $320 | $-175 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$102 | -$20,272 | 150.8% | 1.6mo | $-18,504 (vs do-nothing $-13,784) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $182.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.28 | 8/8 | $224 | $480 | $-15 | 96%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$187 | -$28,272 | 210.4% | 2.2mo | $-26,504 (vs do-nothing $-21,784) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $200 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $0.50 | 8/8 | $400 | $429 | $-66 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$188 | -$14,096 | 104.9% | 1.1mo | $-12,328 (vs do-nothing $-7,608) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $190 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.48 | 8/8 | $384 | $549 | $54 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$292 | -$22,112 | 164.5% | 1.7mo | $-20,344 (vs do-nothing $-15,624) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $195 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $0.58 | 8/8 | $464 | $497 | $2 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$265 | -$18,032 | 134.2% | 1.4mo | $-16,264 (vs do-nothing $-11,544) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $170 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.30 | 8/8 | $240 | $1,029 | $534 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$576 | -$38,256 | 284.6% | 3.0mo | $-36,488 (vs do-nothing $-31,768) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $180 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.45 | 8/8 | $360 | $771 | $277 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$407 | -$30,136 | 224.2% | 2.3mo | $-28,368 (vs do-nothing $-23,648) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $187.50 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.56 | 8/8 | $448 | $640 | $145 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$337 | -$24,048 | 178.9% | 1.9mo | $-22,280 (vs do-nothing $-17,560) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $190 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $0.72 | 8/8 | $576 | $617 | $122 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 4% | 95% | +$321 | -$21,920 | 163.1% | 1.7mo | $-20,152 (vs do-nothing $-15,432) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $185 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.62 | 8/8 | $496 | $709 | $214 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 13% | 95% | +$350 | -$26,000 | 193.5% | 2.0mo | $-24,232 (vs do-nothing $-19,512) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $167.50 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.35 | 8/8 | $280 | $1,200 | $705 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 13% | 95% | +$591 | -$40,216 | 299.2% | 3.1mo | $-38,448 (vs do-nothing $-33,728) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $177.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.50 | 8/8 | $400 | $857 | $362 | 95%hist 95% | 11%hist 13% | 95% | +$385 | -$32,096 | 238.8% | 2.5mo | $-30,328 (vs do-nothing $-25,608) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $182.50 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.76 | 8/8 | $608 | $869 | $374 | 94%hist 95% | 11%hist 13% | 95% | +$443 | -$27,888 | 207.5% | 2.2mo | $-26,120 (vs do-nothing $-21,400) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $175 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.57 | 8/8 | $456 | $977 | $482 | 94%hist 95% | 12%hist 13% | 95% | +$438 | -$34,040 | 253.3% | 2.7mo | $-32,272 (vs do-nothing $-27,552) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $185 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $0.95 | 8/8 | $760 | $814 | $320 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$410 | -$25,736 | 191.5% | 2.0mo | $-23,968 (vs do-nothing $-19,248) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $165 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.44 | 8/8 | $352 | $1,509 | $1,014 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$677 | -$42,144 | 313.6% | 3.3mo | $-40,376 (vs do-nothing $-35,656) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $180 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.86 | 8/8 | $688 | $983 | $488 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$477 | -$29,808 | 221.8% | 2.3mo | $-28,040 (vs do-nothing $-23,320) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $172.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.67 | 8/8 | $536 | $1,149 | $654 | 93%hist 95% | 14%hist 13% | 94% | +$480 | -$35,960 | 267.6% | 2.8mo | $-34,192 (vs do-nothing $-29,472) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $177.50 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.00 | 8/8 | $800 | $1,143 | $648 | 93%hist 95% | 15%hist 13% | 93% | +$540 | -$31,696 | 235.8% | 2.5mo | $-29,928 (vs do-nothing $-25,208) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $180 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $1.26 | 8/8 | $1,008 | $1,080 | $585 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 13% | 93% | +$512 | -$29,488 | 219.4% | 2.3mo | $-27,720 (vs do-nothing $-23,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $162.50 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.58 | 8/8 | $464 | $1,989 | $1,494 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 13% | 93% | +$846 | -$44,032 | 327.6% | 3.4mo | $-42,264 (vs do-nothing $-37,544) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $170 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.85 | 8/8 | $680 | $1,457 | $962 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 13% | 93% | +$615 | -$37,816 | 281.4% | 2.9mo | $-36,048 (vs do-nothing $-31,328) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $175 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.17 | 8/8 | $936 | $1,337 | $842 | 92%hist 95% | 17%hist 13% | 92% | +$618 | -$33,560 | 249.7% | 2.6mo | $-31,792 (vs do-nothing $-27,072) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $167.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.99 | 8/8 | $792 | $1,697 | $1,202 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 13% | 92% | +$736 | -$39,704 | 295.4% | 3.1mo | $-37,936 (vs do-nothing $-33,216) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $172.50 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.32 | 8/8 | $1,056 | $1,509 | $1,014 | 91%hist 95% | 20%hist 13% | 91% | +$648 | -$35,440 | 263.7% | 2.8mo | $-33,672 (vs do-nothing $-28,952) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $160 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.72 | 8/8 | $576 | $2,469 | $1,974 | 90%hist 95% | 20%hist 23% | 91% | +$890 | -$45,920 | 341.7% | 3.6mo | $-44,152 (vs do-nothing $-39,432) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $175 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $1.60 | 8/8 | $1,280 | $1,371 | $877 | 90%hist 95% | 21%hist 23% | 91% | +$563 | -$33,216 | 247.1% | 2.6mo | $-31,448 (vs do-nothing $-26,728) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $165 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.17 | 8/8 | $936 | $2,006 | $1,511 | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 23% | 90% | +$789 | -$41,560 | 309.2% | 3.2mo | $-39,792 (vs do-nothing $-35,072) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $170 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.59 | 8/8 | $1,272 | $1,817 | $1,322 | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 23% | 90% | +$786 | -$37,224 | 277.0% | 2.9mo | $-35,456 (vs do-nothing $-30,736) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $167.50 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.80 | 8/8 | $1,440 | $2,057 | $1,562 | 88%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | +$820 | -$39,056 | 290.6% | 3.0mo | $-37,288 (vs do-nothing $-32,568) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $157.50 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.96 | 8/8 | $768 | $3,291 | $2,797 | 88%hist 86% | 25%hist 23% | 89% | +$1,109 | -$47,728 | 355.1% | 3.7mo | $-45,960 (vs do-nothing $-41,240) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $170 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $2.15 | 8/8 | $1,720 | $1,843 | $1,348 | 88%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | +$761 | -$36,776 | 273.6% | 2.9mo | $-35,008 (vs do-nothing $-30,288) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $162.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.42 | 8/8 | $1,136 | $2,434 | $1,940 | 87%hist 86% | 27%hist 23% | 88% | +$796 | -$43,360 | 322.6% | 3.4mo | $-41,592 (vs do-nothing $-36,872) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $165 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.15 | 8/8 | $1,720 | $2,457 | $1,962 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 23% | 88% | +$970 | -$40,776 | 303.4% | 3.2mo | $-39,008 (vs do-nothing $-34,288) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $160 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.80 | 8/8 | $1,440 | $3,086 | $2,591 | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | 87% | +$1,037 | -$45,056 | 335.2% | 3.5mo | $-43,288 (vs do-nothing $-38,568) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $155 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.26 | 8/8 | $1,008 | $4,320 | $3,825 | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | 86% | +$1,311 | -$49,488 | 368.2% | 3.9mo | $-47,720 (vs do-nothing $-43,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $165 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $2.71 | 8/8 | $2,168 | $2,323 | $1,828 | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | 86% | +$809 | -$40,328 | 300.1% | 3.1mo | $-38,560 (vs do-nothing $-33,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $162.50 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.47 | 8/8 | $1,976 | $2,823 | $2,328 | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | 86% | +$1,032 | -$42,520 | 316.4% | 3.3mo | $-40,752 (vs do-nothing $-36,032) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $157.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.12 | 8/8 | $1,696 | $3,634 | $3,140 | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 30% | 85% | +$1,073 | -$46,800 | 348.2% | 3.6mo | $-45,032 (vs do-nothing $-40,312) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $160 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.88 | 8/8 | $2,304 | $3,291 | $2,797 | 82%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | 85% | +$1,134 | -$44,192 | 328.8% | 3.4mo | $-42,424 (vs do-nothing $-37,704) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $152.50 | 7d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.65 | 8/8 | $1,320 | $5,657 | $5,162 | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | 84% | +$1,534 | -$51,176 | 380.8% | 4.0mo | $-49,408 (vs do-nothing $-44,688) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $160 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $3.60 | 8/8 | $2,880 | $3,086 | $2,591 | 80%hist 83% | 43%hist 40% | 83% | +$941 | -$43,616 | 324.5% | 3.4mo | $-41,848 (vs do-nothing $-37,128) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $155 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.53 | 8/8 | $2,024 | $4,337 | $3,842 | 79%hist 83% | 43%hist 40% | 83% | +$1,139 | -$48,472 | 360.7% | 3.8mo | $-46,704 (vs do-nothing $-41,984) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $157.50 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.35 | 8/8 | $2,680 | $3,829 | $3,334 | 79%hist 83% | 43%hist 40% | 83% | +$1,229 | -$45,816 | 340.9% | 3.6mo | $-44,048 (vs do-nothing $-39,328) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $155 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.90 | 8/8 | $3,120 | $4,457 | $3,962 | 77%hist 83% | 49%hist 40% | 81% | +$1,326 | -$47,376 | 352.5% | 3.7mo | $-45,608 (vs do-nothing $-40,888) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $152.50 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.00 | 8/8 | $2,400 | $5,143 | $4,648 | 76%hist 83% | 50%hist 40% | 80% | +$1,160 | -$50,096 | 372.7% | 3.9mo | $-48,328 (vs do-nothing $-43,608) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $155 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $4.70 | 8/8 | $3,760 | $4,029 | $3,534 | 75%hist 83% | 54%hist 44% | 80% | +$1,046 | -$46,736 | 347.7% | 3.6mo | $-44,968 (vs do-nothing $-40,248) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $150 | 14d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.65 | 8/8 | $2,920 | $6,257 | $5,762 | 72%hist 83% | 58%hist 44% | 78% | +$1,317 | -$51,576 | 383.8% | 4.0mo | $-49,808 (vs do-nothing $-45,088) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $150 | 21d | 20 Nov 2026 | $5.20 | 8/8 | $4,160 | $5,943 | $5,448 | 70%hist 83% | 63%hist 54% | 77% | +$1,432 | -$50,336 | 374.5% | 3.9mo | $-48,568 (vs do-nothing $-43,848) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $150 | 28d | 27 Nov 2026 | $6.10 | 8/8 | $4,880 | $5,229 | $4,734 | 69%hist 66% | 66%hist 54% | 76% | +$1,130 | -$49,616 | 369.2% | 3.9mo | $-47,848 (vs do-nothing $-43,128) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.