17 of 25 contracts (1,700 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $333.24 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $158,100 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 1700 |
| Normal income ref | $36,924/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-123,981 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8x $175C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $1.26 | $1,010 | 2026-07-16 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 17 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 15 × $180 | 78% | $18,844 | $4,823 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 17 × $192.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 15.8% | 91% | 19% | $2,193 | $8,224 | -$10,620 | $237,070 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $192.50 15.8% OTM over spot $166.24 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.35 mid) = $2,193 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,224/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $193.85) 92% EV / mo +$5,036 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.3 mo [4.5-7.4] median, 0.7 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 17% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 8% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $47,686 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,310 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $206 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.23/sh now → $7.94 mid-life (likely $6.53–$11.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 385 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $197 (overshoots $4.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $141 below CC-SS $333.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.29 collected) or spot ≥ $193.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $333.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,981 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,307 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $192.50): -$237,070 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-274,744 ($-150,763 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-95,880, the opportunity cost of earning $8,224/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $215.11 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,244, position total $-134,969 ($-10,988 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 15 × $185 | 24 Jul | 8d | 11.3% | 84% | 32% | $3,420 | $12,825 | -$6,019 | $218,944 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $185 11.3% OTM over spot $166.24 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.37 mid) = $3,420 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,825/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $187.37) 87% EV / mo +$6,556 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.7 mo [4.6-7.3] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 24% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 10% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $62,487 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,716 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.50/sh now → $7.42 mid-life (likely $7.11–$11.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 710 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $189 (overshoots $4.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $148 below CC-SS $333.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.28 collected) or spot ≥ $187.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $333.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,981 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,307 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $185): -$218,944 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $250): -$16,611 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-273,229 ($-149,248 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-94,365, the opportunity cost of earning $12,825/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $215.11 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$41,745, position total $-140,432 ($-16,451 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 15 × $180 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.3% | 78% | 35% | $5,025 | $18,844 | — | $224,839 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $180 8.3% OTM over spot $166.24 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $3.42 mid) = $5,025 credit for the 8d cycle → $18,844/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $183.43) 83% EV / mo +$8,500 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.2 mo [4.8-7.3] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 8% without) · ~11.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $72,040 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,607 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $199 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.02/sh now → $7.09 mid-life (likely $7.65–$11.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,055 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $184 (overshoots $3.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $153 below CC-SS $333.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.84/sh (~25% of the $3.35 collected) or spot ≥ $183.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $333.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,981 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,307 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $180): -$224,839 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $250): -$16,611 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-279,124 ($-155,143 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-100,260, the opportunity cost of earning $18,844/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $215.11 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$47,640, position total $-146,327 ($-22,346 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $170 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.3% | 60% | 83% | $9,900 | $37,125 | +$18,281 | $234,964 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $170 2.3% OTM over spot $166.24 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $6.72 mid) = $9,900 credit for the 8d cycle → $37,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $176.72) 73% EV / mo +$11,366 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.9 mo [4.3-7.3] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 10% without) · ~27.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $92,586 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$243 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $204 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.10/sh now → $6.44 mid-life (likely $8.67–$12.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,025 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $174 (overshoots $4.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $163 below CC-SS $333.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.65/sh (~25% of the $6.60 collected) or spot ≥ $176.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $333.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,981 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,307 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $170): -$234,964 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $250): -$16,611 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-289,249 ($-165,268 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-110,385, the opportunity cost of earning $37,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $215.11 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$57,765, position total $-156,452 ($-32,471 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.304 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$86,307 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-178,864
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 15/17 | $18,844 | $18,920 | 78% | 83% | +$8,500 | -$224,839 | 209.9% | $-279,124 (vs do-nothing $-100,260) |
| $182.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 17/17 | $19,040 | $19,040 | 74% | 80% | +$6,708 | -$246,743 | 230.4% | $-284,417 (vs do-nothing $-105,553) |
| $177.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 13/17 | $19,500 | $19,652 | 74% | 80% | +$8,094 | -$197,266 | 184.2% | $-268,161 (vs do-nothing $-89,297) |
| $180 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 15/17 | $18,900 | $18,976 | 72% | 79% | +$6,250 | -$220,414 | 205.8% | $-274,699 (vs do-nothing $-95,835) |
| $175 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 11/17 | $19,388 | $19,616 | 70% | 78% | +$7,205 | -$168,897 | 157.7% | $-256,403 (vs do-nothing $-77,539) |
| $177.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 14/17 | $19,880 | $19,994 | 69% | 77% | +$6,190 | -$208,100 | 194.3% | $-270,690 (vs do-nothing $-91,826) |
| $175 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 12/17 | $18,960 | $19,150 | 65% | 75% | +$5,395 | -$180,411 | 168.5% | $-259,612 (vs do-nothing $-80,748) |
| $172.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 9/17 | $18,731 | $19,035 | 65% | 75% | +$6,260 | -$139,673 | 130.4% | $-243,790 (vs do-nothing $-64,926) |
| $172.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.50 | 11/17 | $18,700 | $18,928 | 62% | 73% | +$4,372 | -$167,467 | 156.4% | $-254,973 (vs do-nothing $-76,109) |
| $170 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 8/17 | $19,800 | $20,142 | 60% | 73% | +$6,062 | -$125,314 | 117.0% | $-237,736 (vs do-nothing $-58,872) |
| $170 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.00 | 10/17 | $20,000 | $20,266 | 59% | 72% | +$5,047 | -$153,243 | 143.1% | $-249,054 (vs do-nothing $-70,190) |
| $167.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.60 | 9/17 | $19,080 | $19,384 | 55% | 70% | +$3,692 | -$139,628 | 130.4% | $-243,745 (vs do-nothing $-64,881) |
| $167.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 7/17 | $19,819 | $20,199 | 55% | 71% | +$5,073 | -$110,735 | 103.4% | $-231,462 (vs do-nothing $-52,598) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $165 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.10 | 8/17 | $19,360 | $19,702 | 51% | 69% | +$3,785 | -$124,914 | 116.6% | $-237,336 (vs do-nothing $-58,472) |
| $165 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.80 | 6/17 | $19,800 | $20,218 | 49% | 68% | +$4,459 | -$95,666 | 89.3% | $-224,698 (vs do-nothing $-45,834) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 17 contracts at the conservative CC.