17 of 25 contracts (1,700 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $331.84 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $158,100 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 1700 |
| Normal income ref | $32,470/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-124,312 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8x $175C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $1.26 | $1,010 | 2026-07-16 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 17 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 16 × $175 | 75% | $17,220 | $2,670 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 17 × $190 | 24 Jul | 8d | 16.2% | 91% | 18% | $1,530 | $5,738 | -$11,482 | $239,600 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $190 16.2% OTM over spot $163.45 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.02 mid) = $1,530 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,738/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $191.03) 92% EV / mo +$2,684 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.3 mo [4.1-7.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.4 mo) · 16% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 10% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $33,402 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,191 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $212 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.75/sh now → $6.89 mid-life (likely $5.43–$9.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 328 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $194 (overshoots $3.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $142 below CC-SS $331.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $191.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $331.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,021 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $190): -$239,600 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-278,892 ($-154,579 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-100,640, the opportunity cost of earning $5,738/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $215.11 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$41,157, position total $-139,386 ($-15,074 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 15 × $180 | 24 Jul | 8d | 10.1% | 82% | 37% | $2,940 | $11,025 | -$6,195 | $224,822 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $180 10.1% OTM over spot $163.45 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.15 mid) = $2,940 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,025/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $182.15) 85% EV / mo +$3,426 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.0 mo [4.8-7.4] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 18% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 9% without) · ~9.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $49,617 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,495 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $204 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.89/sh now → $6.29 mid-life (likely $6.26–$9.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 827 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $184 (overshoots $4.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $152 below CC-SS $331.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.96 collected) or spot ≥ $182.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $331.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,021 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $180): -$224,822 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $250): -$16,348 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-280,462 ($-156,149 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-102,210, the opportunity cost of earning $11,025/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $215.11 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,725, position total $-147,934 ($-23,622 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $175 | 24 Jul | 8d | 7.1% | 75% | 40% | $4,592 | $17,220 | — | $246,354 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $175 7.1% OTM over spot $163.45 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $3.06 mid) = $4,592 credit for the 8d cycle → $17,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $178.06) 79% EV / mo +$3,966 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.3 mo [4.4-7.7] median, 1.6 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 24% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 9% without) · ~13.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $64,475 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,004 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $197 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.48/sh now → $6.00 mid-life (likely $6.79–$10.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,213 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $179 (overshoots $4.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $157 below CC-SS $331.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.72/sh (~25% of the $2.87 collected) or spot ≥ $178.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $331.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,021 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $175): -$246,354 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $250): -$8,174 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-293,820 ($-169,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-115,568, the opportunity cost of earning $17,220/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $215.11 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$59,584, position total $-157,803 ($-33,491 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 16 × $165 | 24 Jul | 8d | 0.9% | 56% | 93% | $9,200 | $34,500 | +$17,280 | $257,746 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $165 0.9% OTM over spot $163.45 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $6.25 mid) = $9,200 credit for the 8d cycle → $34,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $171.25) 68% EV / mo +$2,152 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.9 mo [4.8-7.4] median · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 6% without) · ~37.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $80,829 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$507 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.68/sh now → $5.43 mid-life (likely $7.47–$11.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,229 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $169 (overshoots $4.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $167 below CC-SS $331.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.44/sh (~25% of the $5.75 collected) or spot ≥ $171.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $331.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$85,021 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $165): -$257,746 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $250): -$8,174 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-305,212 ($-180,899 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-126,960, the opportunity cost of earning $34,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $215.11 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$70,976, position total $-169,195 ($-44,883 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.297 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$85,021 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-178,252
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 17/17 | $16,490 | $16,490 | 75% | 81% | +$5,355 | -$249,885 | 233.3% | $-289,177 (vs do-nothing $-110,925) |
| $175 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.87 | 16/17 | $17,220 | $17,240 | 75% | 79% | +$3,966 | -$246,354 | 230.0% | $-293,820 (vs do-nothing $-115,568) |
| $177.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 16/17 | $17,280 | $17,300 | 72% | 79% | +$4,928 | -$238,306 | 222.5% | $-285,772 (vs do-nothing $-107,520) |
| $172.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 13/17 | $17,062 | $17,142 | 71% | 77% | +$3,430 | -$202,593 | 189.2% | $-274,582 (vs do-nothing $-96,330) |
| $175 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 14/17 | $17,080 | $17,140 | 69% | 78% | +$4,403 | -$211,038 | 197.0% | $-274,852 (vs do-nothing $-96,600) |
| $175 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.50 | 16/17 | $16,364 | $16,384 | 67% | 76% | +$1,547 | -$238,946 | 223.1% | $-286,412 (vs do-nothing $-108,160) |
| $172.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 12/17 | $16,440 | $16,540 | 66% | 76% | +$3,759 | -$182,989 | 170.9% | $-263,152 (vs do-nothing $-84,900) |
| $170 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 11/17 | $17,531 | $17,651 | 66% | 74% | +$3,044 | -$173,350 | 161.9% | $-261,687 (vs do-nothing $-83,435) |
| $172.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.40 | 15/17 | $17,182 | $17,222 | 64% | 74% | +$1,584 | -$226,412 | 211.4% | $-282,052 (vs do-nothing $-103,800) |
| $170 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.00 | 11/17 | $17,600 | $17,720 | 63% | 74% | +$4,102 | -$169,225 | 158.0% | $-257,562 (vs do-nothing $-79,310) |
| $170 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.40 | 13/17 | $16,664 | $16,744 | 62% | 74% | +$1,523 | -$198,173 | 185.0% | $-270,162 (vs do-nothing $-91,910) |
| $167.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 10/17 | $18,000 | $18,140 | 61% | 71% | +$1,602 | -$159,541 | 149.0% | $-256,052 (vs do-nothing $-77,800) |
| $167.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 10/17 | $17,200 | $17,340 | 59% | 73% | +$3,023 | -$155,741 | 145.4% | $-252,252 (vs do-nothing $-74,000) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $167.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.50 | 12/17 | $17,182 | $17,282 | 59% | 72% | +$1,571 | -$184,609 | 172.4% | $-264,772 (vs do-nothing $-86,520) |
| $165 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.65 | 11/17 | $17,475 | $17,595 | 56% | 71% | +$1,536 | -$170,710 | 159.4% | $-259,047 (vs do-nothing $-80,795) |
| $165 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 8/17 | $17,250 | $17,430 | 56% | 68% | +$1,076 | -$128,873 | 120.3% | $-241,732 (vs do-nothing $-63,480) |
| $165 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 9/17 | $17,910 | $18,070 | 56% | 71% | +$3,245 | -$141,202 | 131.8% | $-245,887 (vs do-nothing $-67,635) |
| $162.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $12.85 | 10/17 | $17,523 | $17,663 | 53% | 70% | +$1,431 | -$156,491 | 146.1% | $-253,002 (vs do-nothing $-74,750) |
| $162.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.50 | 8/17 | $16,800 | $16,980 | 52% | 69% | +$1,894 | -$127,073 | 118.6% | $-239,932 (vs do-nothing $-61,680) |
| $162.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 7/17 | $18,375 | $18,575 | 50% | 66% | +$1,110 | -$113,639 | 106.1% | $-234,672 (vs do-nothing $-56,420) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 17 contracts at the conservative CC.