25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $331.87 (banked floor $330.29) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $31,875/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-198,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $1.89 | $4,729 | 2026-07-27 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 7d | 22 × $160 | 77% | $16,123 | $3,504 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $170 | 7 Aug | 7d | 14.2% | 90%hist 100% | 20%hist 13% | +5pp | $1,475 | $6,321 | -$9,801 | $403,202 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $170 14.2% OTM over spot $148.84 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.66 mid) = $1,475 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,321/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $170.66) 91% EV / mo +$1,326 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 5% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,414/mo median; plan ~$3,001/mo after 68% keep · $38,379 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.5 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,231 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $196 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.62/sh now → $4.68 mid-life (likely $3.79–$7.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 326 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $174 (overshoots $3.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $162 below CC-SS $331.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $170.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $331.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-198,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,546 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $170): -$403,202 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-478,406 ($-279,656 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-75,154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-403,252, the opportunity cost of earning $6,321/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $173.92 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,325, position total $-190,146 (+$8,604 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $162.50 | 7 Aug | 7d | 9.2% | 83%hist 99% | 36%hist 18% | +5pp | $2,500 | $10,714 | -$5,409 | $336,242 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $162.50 9.2% OTM over spot $148.84 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.42 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $163.91) 85% EV / mo +$2,297 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 9% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,100/mo median; plan ~$4,148/mo after 68% keep · $53,255 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.7 mo, measured ONLY among the 9% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,163 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $189 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.12/sh now → $4.33 mid-life (likely $4.24–$6.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 758 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $166 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $169 below CC-SS $331.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $163.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $331.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-198,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,546 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $162.50): -$336,242 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $350): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-411,436 ($-212,686 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-75,154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-336,282, the opportunity cost of earning $10,714/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $173.92 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,340, position total $-202,151 ($-3,401 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $160 | 7 Aug | 7d | 7.5% | 77%hist 96% | 47%hist 28% | +6pp | $3,762 | $16,123 | — | $374,354 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $160 7.5% OTM over spot $148.84 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.82 mid) = $3,762 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,123/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $161.82) 81% EV / mo +$1,415 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,767/mo median; plan ~$5,282/mo after 68% keep · $68,462 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.0 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,516 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $184 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.96/sh now → $4.22 mid-life (likely $4.52–$7.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 952 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $164 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $172 below CC-SS $331.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.71 collected) or spot ≥ $161.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $331.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-198,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,546 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $160): -$374,354 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $350): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-449,552 ($-250,802 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-75,154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-374,398, the opportunity cost of earning $16,123/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $173.92 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,862, position total $-208,677 ($-9,927 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 22 × $152.50 | 7 Aug | 7d | 2.5% | 61%hist 80% | 80%hist 80% | +14pp | $7,700 | $33,000 | +$16,877 | $386,916 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $152.50 2.5% OTM over spot $148.84 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $3.70 mid) = $7,700 credit for the 7d cycle → $33,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $156.20) 70% EV / mo $-789 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,154/mo median; plan ~$7,585/mo after 68% keep · $95,501 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.4 mo [5.3-8.1], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$845 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $191 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.49/sh now → $3.88 mid-life (likely $5.13–$7.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,858 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $156 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $179 below CC-SS $331.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.88/sh (~25% of the $3.50 collected) or spot ≥ $156.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $331.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-198,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,546 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $152.50): -$386,916 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $350): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-462,114 ($-263,364 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-75,154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-386,960, the opportunity cost of earning $33,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $173.92 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,424, position total $-221,239 ($-22,489 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.270 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$123,546 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-75,154
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.71 | 22/25 | $16,123 | $16,131 | 77% | 81% | +$1,415 | -$374,354 | 237.7% | $-449,552 (vs do-nothing $-374,398) |
| $157.50 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.08 | 18/25 | $16,046 | $16,066 | 73% | 78% | +$1,383 | -$310,124 | 196.9% | $-385,314 (vs do-nothing $-310,160) |
| $160 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 24/25 | $15,943 | $15,946 | 72% | 77% | +$233 | -$405,050 | 257.2% | $-480,252 (vs do-nothing $-405,098) |
| $160 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 24/25 | $16,286 | $16,289 | 70% | 75% | +$1,212 | -$401,090 | 254.7% | $-476,292 (vs do-nothing $-401,138) |
| $157.50 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 20/25 | $16,071 | $16,086 | 68% | 75% | +$223 | -$341,242 | 216.7% | $-416,436 (vs do-nothing $-341,282) |
| $155 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.77 | 14/25 | $16,620 | $16,651 | 67% | 74% | +$127 | -$243,741 | 154.8% | $-318,923 (vs do-nothing $-243,769) |
| $157.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 21/25 | $16,200 | $16,211 | 66% | 74% | +$774 | -$354,839 | 225.3% | $-430,035 (vs do-nothing $-354,881) |
| $155 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 17/25 | $16,029 | $16,051 | 64% | 72% | $-350 | -$293,201 | 186.2% | $-368,389 (vs do-nothing $-293,235) |
| $155 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.15 | 19/25 | $16,693 | $16,710 | 63% | 71% | +$435 | -$324,370 | 205.9% | $-399,562 (vs do-nothing $-324,408) |
| $155 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.20 | 24/25 | $15,943 | $15,946 | 62% | 72% | $-3,025 | -$409,610 | 260.1% | $-484,812 (vs do-nothing $-409,658) |
| $152.50 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 11/25 | $16,500 | $16,540 | 61% | 70% | $-395 | -$193,458 | 122.8% | $-268,634 (vs do-nothing $-193,480) |
| $152.50 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.15 | 15/25 | $16,554 | $16,582 | 60% | 69% | $-830 | -$261,331 | 165.9% | $-336,515 (vs do-nothing $-261,361) |
| $152.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.05 | 16/25 | $16,114 | $16,140 | 59% | 69% | +$237 | -$275,713 | 175.1% | $-350,900 (vs do-nothing $-275,745) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $152.50 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 21/25 | $16,200 | $16,211 | 59% | 70% | $-2,586 | -$361,559 | 229.6% | $-436,755 (vs do-nothing $-361,601) |
| $150 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.60 | 18/25 | $16,586 | $16,606 | 55% | 69% | $-1,587 | -$311,888 | 198.0% | $-387,078 (vs do-nothing $-311,924) |
| $150 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.20 | 14/25 | $16,400 | $16,431 | 55% | 67% | +$366 | -$243,139 | 154.4% | $-318,321 (vs do-nothing $-243,167) |
| $150 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.25 | 9/25 | $16,393 | $16,439 | 55% | 66% | $-1,368 | -$159,859 | 101.5% | $-235,031 (vs do-nothing $-159,877) |
| $150 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.50 | 12/25 | $16,714 | $16,751 | 55% | 67% | +$99 | -$210,445 | 133.6% | $-285,623 (vs do-nothing $-210,469) |
| $149 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 18/25 | $16,296 | $16,316 | 54% | 68% | $-2,761 | -$313,958 | 199.3% | $-389,148 (vs do-nothing $-313,994) |
| $149 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 14/25 | $16,900 | $16,931 | 54% | 67% | $-57 | -$244,189 | 155.0% | $-319,371 (vs do-nothing $-244,217) |
| $149 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.95 | 13/25 | $16,575 | $16,609 | 53% | 66% | $-2,712 | -$229,997 | 146.0% | $-305,177 (vs do-nothing $-230,023) |
| $148 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.00 | 15/25 | $16,071 | $16,100 | 53% | 67% | $-574 | -$260,806 | 165.6% | $-335,990 (vs do-nothing $-260,836) |
| $149 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.50 | 9/25 | $17,357 | $17,403 | 52% | 65% | $-1,482 | -$160,534 | 101.9% | $-235,706 (vs do-nothing $-160,552) |
| $148 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.75 | 13/25 | $16,250 | $16,284 | 52% | 66% | $-389 | -$227,657 | 144.5% | $-302,837 (vs do-nothing $-227,683) |
| $147 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.35 | 16/25 | $16,029 | $16,054 | 51% | 66% | $-2,571 | -$280,833 | 178.3% | $-356,020 (vs do-nothing $-280,865) |
| $148 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.55 | 12/25 | $16,843 | $16,880 | 51% | 65% | $-2,211 | -$212,785 | 135.1% | $-287,963 (vs do-nothing $-212,809) |
| $147 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.30 | 12/25 | $15,943 | $15,980 | 50% | 65% | $-274 | -$210,685 | 133.8% | $-285,863 (vs do-nothing $-210,709) |
| $146 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.20 | 15/25 | $16,393 | $16,421 | 50% | 66% | $-1,863 | -$263,506 | 167.3% | $-338,690 (vs do-nothing $-263,536) |
| $148 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.90 | 8/25 | $16,800 | $16,849 | 50% | 63% | $-2,279 | -$143,177 | 90.9% | $-218,347 (vs do-nothing $-143,193) |
| $147 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.40 | 11/25 | $17,443 | $17,483 | 49% | 64% | $-1,226 | -$195,218 | 123.9% | $-270,394 (vs do-nothing $-195,240) |
| $146 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.30 | 12/25 | $15,943 | $15,980 | 49% | 64% | $-1,165 | -$211,885 | 134.5% | $-287,063 (vs do-nothing $-211,909) |
| $146 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.90 | 10/25 | $16,929 | $16,971 | 47% | 63% | $-1,188 | -$177,971 | 113.0% | $-253,145 (vs do-nothing $-177,991) |
| $147 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.50 | 7/25 | $16,500 | $16,551 | 47% | 62% | $-1,780 | -$125,560 | 79.7% | $-200,728 (vs do-nothing $-125,574) |
| $146 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.85 | 7/25 | $17,550 | $17,601 | 45% | 61% | $-2,414 | -$126,015 | 80.0% | $-201,183 (vs do-nothing $-126,029) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.