25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $339.46 (banked floor $334.49) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $42,684/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $15,125/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-197,062 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 3d | 25 × $167.50 | 90% | $21,750 | $15,569 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 10d | 24 × $165 | 79% | $21,600 | $3,982 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $177.50 | 14 Aug | 10d | 18.0% | 91%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +5pp | $2,925 | $8,775 | -$12,975 | $401,981 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $177.50 18.0% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.30 mid) = $2,925 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,775/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $178.81) 91% EV / mo +$4,389 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 9% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,740/mo median; plan ~$3,903/mo after 68% keep · $50,514 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.0 mo, measured ONLY among the 9% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,547 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $192 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.58/sh now → $8.19 mid-life (likely $6.19–$11.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 339 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $182 (overshoots $4.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $162 below CC-SS $339.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $178.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,730 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $177.50): -$401,981 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-482,313 ($-285,250 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,963 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-303,350, the opportunity cost of earning $8,775/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-184,092 (+$12,971 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 22 × $170 | 7 Aug | 3d | 13.0% | 93%hist 99% | 15%hist 6% | +14pp | $1,474 | $14,740 | -$7,010 | $371,343 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $170 13.0% OTM over spot $150.43 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.72 mid) = $1,474 credit for the 3d cycle → $14,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $170.72) 93% EV / mo +$9,295 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,063/mo median; plan ~$7,523/mo after 68% keep · $87,865 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [4.2-7.0], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,921 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $195 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.32/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $4.93–$9.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 241 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $175 (overshoots $4.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $169 below CC-SS $339.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $170.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,730 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $170): -$371,343 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $300): -$11,836 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-463,511 ($-266,448 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,963 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-284,548, the opportunity cost of earning $14,740/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,672, position total $-185,761 (+$11,302 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $167.50 | 7 Aug | 3d | 11.4% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 18% | +22pp | $2,175 | $21,750 | — | $427,731 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $167.50 11.4% OTM over spot $150.43 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.94 mid) = $2,175 credit for the 3d cycle → $21,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $168.44) 91% EV / mo +$12,553 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +22pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,760/mo median; plan ~$10,037/mo after 68% keep · $116,671 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [3.9-7.2], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,472 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $195 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.15/sh now → $5.06 mid-life (likely $4.68–$8.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $172 (overshoots $4.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $172 below CC-SS $339.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $168.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,730 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $167.50): -$427,731 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-508,063 ($-311,000 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,963 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-329,100, the opportunity cost of earning $21,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,650, position total $-191,742 (+$5,321 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $160 | 7 Aug | 3d | 6.4% | 78%hist 92% | 44%hist 32% | +41pp | $4,320 | $43,200 | +$21,450 | $354,604 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $160 6.4% OTM over spot $150.43 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $2.22 mid) = $4,320 credit for the 3d cycle → $43,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $162.22) 83% EV / mo +$20,027 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +41pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $21,348/mo median; plan ~$14,517/mo after 68% keep · $154,048 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [4.1-6.9], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,092 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $195 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.65/sh now → $4.71 mid-life (likely $5.36–$9.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 850 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $164 (overshoots $4.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $179 below CC-SS $339.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.16 collected) or spot ≥ $162.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,730 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $160): -$354,604 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $300): -$19,726 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-454,663 ($-257,600 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,963 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-275,700, the opportunity cost of earning $43,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,540, position total $-202,627 ($-5,564 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $177.50 | 14 Aug | 10d | 18.0% | 91%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +5pp | $2,925 | $8,775 | -$12,825 | $401,981 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $177.50 18.0% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.30 mid) = $2,925 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,775/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $178.81) 91% EV / mo +$4,389 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 9% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,740/mo median; plan ~$3,903/mo after 68% keep · $50,514 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.0 mo, measured ONLY among the 9% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,547 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $192 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.58/sh now → $8.19 mid-life (likely $6.19–$11.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 339 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $182 (overshoots $4.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $162 below CC-SS $339.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $178.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,730 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $177.50): -$401,981 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-482,313 ($-285,250 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,963 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-303,350, the opportunity cost of earning $8,775/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-184,092 (+$12,971 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 22 × $170 | 14 Aug | 10d | 13.0% | 84%hist 95% | 32%hist 22% | +9pp | $4,796 | $14,388 | -$7,212 | $368,021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $170 13.0% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.32 mid) = $4,796 credit for the 10d cycle → $14,388/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $172.31) 87% EV / mo +$6,647 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 13% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,224/mo median; plan ~$5,592/mo after 68% keep · $71,530 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.3 mo, measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,946 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $187 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.76/sh now → $7.61 mid-life (likely $7.09–$11.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 659 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $174 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $169 below CC-SS $339.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.18 collected) or spot ≥ $172.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,730 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $170): -$368,021 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $300): -$11,836 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-460,189 ($-263,126 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,963 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-281,226, the opportunity cost of earning $14,388/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-184,089 (+$12,974 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $165 | 14 Aug | 10d | 9.7% | 79%hist 92% | 45%hist 32% | +12pp | $7,200 | $21,600 | — | $411,509 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $165 9.7% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $3.20 mid) = $7,200 credit for the 10d cycle → $21,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $168.20) 83% EV / mo +$8,200 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 17% whole by 9mo vs 5% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,359/mo median; plan ~$7,044/mo after 68% keep · $89,197 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.5 mo [5.6-8.1], measured ONLY among the 17% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,165 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $185 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.23/sh now → $7.24 mid-life (likely $7.51–$11.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,002 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $169 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $174 below CC-SS $339.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $168.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,730 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $165): -$411,509 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $300): -$3,945 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-495,787 ($-298,724 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,963 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-316,824, the opportunity cost of earning $21,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,232, position total $-192,323 (+$4,740 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $155 | 14 Aug | 10d | 3.0% | 62%hist 78% | 80%hist 59% | +21pp | $14,625 | $43,875 | +$22,275 | $446,531 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $155 3.0% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $6.22 mid) = $14,625 credit for the 10d cycle → $43,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $161.22) 73% EV / mo +$10,699 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +21pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,472/mo median; plan ~$9,841/mo after 68% keep · $124,978 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.9 mo [5.5-7.7], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,660 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $190 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.21/sh now → $6.51 mid-life (likely $8.55–$11.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,997 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $159 (overshoots $3.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $184 below CC-SS $339.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.46/sh (~25% of the $5.85 collected) or spot ≥ $161.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,730 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $155): -$446,531 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-526,863 ($-329,800 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-178,963 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-347,900, the opportunity cost of earning $43,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,450, position total $-210,542 ($-13,479 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.247 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$116,730 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-178,963
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $167.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 25/25 | $21,750 | $21,750 | 90% | 91% | +$12,553 | -$427,731 | 271.6% | $-508,063 (vs do-nothing $-329,100) |
| $165 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.18 | 19/25 | $22,420 | $22,431 | 87% | 89% | +$12,081 | -$329,236 | 209.0% | $-433,240 (vs do-nothing $-254,277) |
| $162.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.58 | 14/25 | $22,120 | $22,139 | 83% | 86% | +$10,945 | -$245,535 | 155.9% | $-369,265 (vs do-nothing $-190,302) |
| $165 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 24/25 | $21,600 | $21,602 | 79% | 83% | +$8,200 | -$411,509 | 261.3% | $-495,787 (vs do-nothing $-316,824) |
| $160 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.16 | 10/25 | $21,600 | $21,626 | 78% | 83% | +$10,013 | -$177,302 | 112.6% | $-316,813 (vs do-nothing $-137,850) |
| $162.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 21/25 | $21,735 | $21,742 | 75% | 80% | +$7,046 | -$364,376 | 231.3% | $-460,489 (vs do-nothing $-281,526) |
| $157.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.83 | 8/25 | $22,640 | $22,670 | 73% | 79% | +$9,367 | -$143,306 | 91.0% | $-290,707 (vs do-nothing $-111,744) |
| $162.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.20 | 24/25 | $22,024 | $22,025 | 71% | 78% | +$6,054 | -$412,229 | 261.7% | $-496,507 (vs do-nothing $-317,544) |
| $160 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.25 | 17/25 | $21,675 | $21,689 | 71% | 78% | +$6,863 | -$297,861 | 189.1% | $-409,755 (vs do-nothing $-230,792) |
| $160 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.00 | 21/25 | $22,235 | $22,242 | 68% | 76% | +$5,957 | -$364,271 | 231.3% | $-460,384 (vs do-nothing $-281,421) |
| $157.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.80 | 15/25 | $21,600 | $21,618 | 67% | 75% | +$5,415 | -$265,743 | 168.7% | $-385,528 (vs do-nothing $-206,565) |
| $160 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.10 | 25/25 | $22,188 | $22,188 | 66% | 75% | +$3,370 | -$430,906 | 273.6% | $-511,238 (vs do-nothing $-332,275) |
| $155 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.60 | 6/25 | $21,600 | $21,634 | 66% | 76% | +$7,586 | -$108,517 | 68.9% | $-263,809 (vs do-nothing $-84,846) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.40 | 19/25 | $21,459 | $21,469 | 65% | 74% | +$4,436 | -$333,568 | 211.8% | $-437,572 (vs do-nothing $-258,609) |
| $157.50 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.90 | 22/25 | $21,725 | $21,730 | 63% | 73% | +$2,825 | -$382,937 | 243.1% | $-475,105 (vs do-nothing $-296,142) |
| $155 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.85 | 13/25 | $22,815 | $22,836 | 62% | 73% | +$5,564 | -$232,196 | 147.4% | $-359,871 (vs do-nothing $-180,908) |
| $155 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 16/25 | $22,024 | $22,039 | 61% | 72% | +$4,628 | -$282,660 | 179.5% | $-398,499 (vs do-nothing $-219,536) |
| $155 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.70 | 18/25 | $21,825 | $21,837 | 60% | 72% | +$4,242 | -$314,572 | 199.7% | $-422,521 (vs do-nothing $-243,558) |
| $152.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.50 | 5/25 | $22,500 | $22,535 | 58% | 72% | +$6,391 | -$91,231 | 57.9% | $-250,468 (vs do-nothing $-71,505) |
| $152.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 11/25 | $22,440 | $22,465 | 57% | 71% | +$4,628 | -$198,178 | 125.8% | $-333,744 (vs do-nothing $-154,781) |
| $152.50 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.90 | 18/25 | $22,275 | $22,287 | 57% | 70% | +$2,360 | -$318,712 | 202.4% | $-426,661 (vs do-nothing $-247,698) |
| $152.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.55 | 15/25 | $22,632 | $22,650 | 57% | 70% | +$4,096 | -$267,618 | 169.9% | $-387,403 (vs do-nothing $-208,440) |
| $150 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.15 | 16/25 | $22,300 | $22,316 | 53% | 69% | +$2,326 | -$285,300 | 181.1% | $-401,139 (vs do-nothing $-222,176) |
| $150 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.10 | 12/25 | $21,388 | $21,411 | 52% | 69% | +$3,749 | -$215,235 | 136.7% | $-346,855 (vs do-nothing $-167,892) |
| $149 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.55 | 15/25 | $21,656 | $21,674 | 52% | 68% | +$2,798 | -$268,368 | 170.4% | $-388,153 (vs do-nothing $-209,190) |
| $150 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.95 | 9/25 | $21,465 | $21,493 | 52% | 69% | +$3,836 | -$163,361 | 103.7% | $-306,817 (vs do-nothing $-127,854) |
| $149 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.60 | 12/25 | $22,447 | $22,470 | 51% | 68% | +$4,077 | -$215,835 | 137.0% | $-347,455 (vs do-nothing $-168,492) |
| $150 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.80 | 4/25 | $23,200 | $23,237 | 50% | 69% | +$5,824 | -$73,465 | 46.6% | $-236,647 (vs do-nothing $-57,684) |
| $148 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.80 | 15/25 | $22,125 | $22,143 | 50% | 68% | +$2,322 | -$269,493 | 171.1% | $-389,278 (vs do-nothing $-210,315) |
| $149 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 9/25 | $22,815 | $22,843 | 49% | 68% | +$3,840 | -$163,811 | 104.0% | $-307,267 (vs do-nothing $-128,304) |
| $148 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.65 | 12/25 | $22,553 | $22,576 | 49% | 67% | +$3,017 | -$216,975 | 137.8% | $-348,595 (vs do-nothing $-169,632) |
| $148 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $9.05 | 8/25 | $21,720 | $21,750 | 47% | 67% | +$3,594 | -$145,930 | 92.7% | $-293,331 (vs do-nothing $-114,368) |
| $149 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.20 | 4/25 | $24,800 | $24,837 | 47% | 68% | +$5,350 | -$73,705 | 46.8% | $-236,887 (vs do-nothing $-57,924) |
| $148 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 4/25 | $27,000 | $27,037 | 44% | 66% | +$5,315 | -$73,885 | 46.9% | $-237,067 (vs do-nothing $-58,104) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.