25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $339.26 (banked floor $334.28) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $39,609/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $15,281/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-197,938 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 2d | 18 × $162.50 | 90% | $20,520 | $18,061 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 9d | 23 × $162.50 | 79% | $20,547 | $3,250 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $165 | 7 Aug | 2d | 11.1% | 92%hist 99% | 15%hist 6% | +12pp | $882 | $13,230 | -$7,290 | $312,783 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $165 11.1% OTM over spot $148.52 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.54 mid) = $882 credit for the 2d cycle → $13,230/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $165.54) 93% EV / mo +$7,650 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,441/mo median; plan ~$6,420/mo after 68% keep · $76,216 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [4.3-7.3], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,271 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $194 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.62/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $4.22–$8.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 193 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $169 (overshoots $4.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $174 below CC-SS $339.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $165.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,212 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $165): -$312,783 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $320): -$13,467 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-404,976 ($-207,039 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-126,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-278,154, the opportunity cost of earning $13,230/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,566, position total $-194,215 (+$3,723 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $165 | 7 Aug | 2d | 11.1% | 92%hist 99% | 15%hist 6% | +19pp | $1,225 | $18,375 | -$2,145 | $434,421 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $165 11.1% OTM over spot $148.52 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.54 mid) = $1,225 credit for the 2d cycle → $18,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $165.54) 93% EV / mo +$10,624 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,765/mo median; plan ~$9,360/mo after 68% keep · $99,848 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [3.9-7.0], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,709 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $194 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.62/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $4.05–$6.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 181 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $168 (overshoots $3.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $174 below CC-SS $339.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $165.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,212 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $165): -$434,421 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-513,147 ($-315,210 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-126,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-386,325, the opportunity cost of earning $18,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,675, position total $-198,338 ($-400 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $162.50 | 7 Aug | 2d | 9.4% | 90%hist 95% | 21%hist 18% | +19pp | $1,368 | $20,520 | — | $316,797 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $162.50 9.4% OTM over spot $148.52 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.79 mid) = $1,368 credit for the 2d cycle → $20,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $163.29) 91% EV / mo +$11,729 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 26% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,116/mo median; plan ~$8,919/mo after 68% keep · $105,529 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [3.8-7.3], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,616 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $194 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.49/sh now → $3.88 mid-life (likely $4.20–$7.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 308 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $167 (overshoots $4.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $177 below CC-SS $339.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $163.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,212 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $162.50): -$316,797 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $320): -$13,467 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-408,990 ($-211,053 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-126,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-282,168, the opportunity cost of earning $20,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,580, position total $-198,229 ($-291 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $160 | 7 Aug | 2d | 7.7% | 86%hist 95% | 29%hist 18% | +46pp | $2,750 | $41,250 | +$20,730 | $445,396 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $160 7.7% OTM over spot $148.52 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $1.15 mid) = $2,750 credit for the 2d cycle → $41,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $161.15) 88% EV / mo +$21,965 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +46pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $24,864/mo median; plan ~$16,907/mo after 68% keep · $158,496 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.7-6.4], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,717 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $186 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.35/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $4.11–$7.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 425 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $164 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $179 below CC-SS $339.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $161.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,212 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $160): -$445,396 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-524,122 ($-326,185 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-126,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-397,300, the opportunity cost of earning $41,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,650, position total $-209,313 ($-11,375 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $175 | 14 Aug | 9d | 17.8% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +7pp | $2,375 | $7,917 | -$12,630 | $408,271 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $175 17.8% OTM over spot $148.52 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.05 mid) = $2,375 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,917/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $176.05) 92% EV / mo +$3,940 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,717/mo median; plan ~$3,888/mo after 68% keep · $48,416 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.5 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,031 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $191 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.41/sh now → $7.36 mid-life (likely $5.66–$9.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 311 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $179 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $164 below CC-SS $339.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.95 collected) or spot ≥ $176.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,212 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $175): -$408,271 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-486,997 ($-289,060 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-126,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-360,175, the opportunity cost of earning $7,917/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-183,663 (+$14,275 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 24 × $167.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 12.8% | 85%hist 95% | 31%hist 22% | +9pp | $3,960 | $13,200 | -$7,347 | $408,260 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $167.50 12.8% OTM over spot $148.52 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.87 mid) = $3,960 credit for the 9d cycle → $13,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $169.37) 87% EV / mo +$4,990 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,727/mo median; plan ~$5,255/mo after 68% keep · $67,854 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.6 mo [5.3-7.8], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,448 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $184 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.67/sh now → $6.84 mid-life (likely $6.61–$10.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 646 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $172 (overshoots $4.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $172 below CC-SS $339.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $169.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,212 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $167.50): -$408,260 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $320): -$1,924 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-488,910 ($-290,973 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-126,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-362,088, the opportunity cost of earning $13,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,304, position total $-188,965 (+$8,973 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 23 × $162.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 9.4% | 79%hist 92% | 44%hist 32% | +10pp | $6,164 | $20,547 | — | $400,381 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $162.50 9.4% OTM over spot $148.52 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.89 mid) = $6,164 credit for the 9d cycle → $20,547/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $165.39) 83% EV / mo +$7,562 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 5% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,167/mo median; plan ~$6,914/mo after 68% keep · $88,027 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.5 mo [5.4-7.9], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,778 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $184 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.18/sh now → $6.50 mid-life (likely $6.67–$10.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 947 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $166 (overshoots $3.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $177 below CC-SS $339.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.67/sh (~25% of the $2.68 collected) or spot ≥ $165.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,212 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $162.50): -$400,381 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $320): -$3,848 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-482,954 ($-285,017 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-126,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-356,132, the opportunity cost of earning $20,547/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,214, position total $-197,873 (+$65 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $152.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 2.7% | 61%hist 78% | 81%hist 81% | +15pp | $12,075 | $40,250 | +$19,703 | $417,470 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $152.50 2.7% OTM over spot $148.52 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $5.65 mid) = $12,075 credit for the 9d cycle → $40,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $158.15) 72% EV / mo +$7,314 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 5% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,808/mo median; plan ~$8,709/mo after 68% keep · $111,102 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.4 mo [5.4-7.5], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,361 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $186 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.26/sh now → $5.84 mid-life (likely $7.81–$10.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,950 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $156 (overshoots $3.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $187 below CC-SS $339.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.31/sh (~25% of the $5.25 collected) or spot ≥ $158.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $339.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-197,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,212 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $152.50): -$417,470 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $320): -$3,848 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-500,043 ($-302,106 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-126,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-373,221, the opportunity cost of earning $40,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,303, position total $-214,962 ($-17,024 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 38 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.250 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$119,212 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-126,822
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.76 | 18/25 | $20,520 | $20,546 | 90% | 91% | +$11,729 | -$316,797 | 201.1% | $-408,990 (vs do-nothing $-282,168) |
| $160 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 13/25 | $21,450 | $21,495 | 86% | 88% | +$11,422 | -$231,606 | 147.1% | $-333,418 (vs do-nothing $-206,596) |
| $157.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.51 | 9/25 | $20,385 | $20,445 | 81% | 84% | +$9,493 | -$162,224 | 103.0% | $-271,731 (vs do-nothing $-144,909) |
| $162.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.68 | 23/25 | $20,547 | $20,554 | 79% | 83% | +$7,562 | -$400,381 | 254.2% | $-482,954 (vs do-nothing $-356,132) |
| $160 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 20/25 | $20,333 | $20,352 | 75% | 80% | +$5,928 | -$352,417 | 223.8% | $-440,762 (vs do-nothing $-313,940) |
| $155 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 7/25 | $21,525 | $21,592 | 74% | 80% | +$8,433 | -$127,546 | 81.0% | $-240,901 (vs do-nothing $-114,079) |
| $160 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 22/25 | $20,419 | $20,430 | 71% | 77% | +$5,062 | -$383,479 | 243.5% | $-467,976 (vs do-nothing $-341,154) |
| $157.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 16/25 | $20,533 | $20,567 | 71% | 78% | +$5,927 | -$284,654 | 180.7% | $-380,694 (vs do-nothing $-253,872) |
| $160 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 24/25 | $20,661 | $20,665 | 69% | 77% | +$5,015 | -$414,380 | 263.1% | $-495,030 (vs do-nothing $-368,208) |
| $157.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 20/25 | $20,438 | $20,456 | 67% | 75% | +$3,894 | -$352,617 | 223.9% | $-440,962 (vs do-nothing $-314,140) |
| $152.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.83 | 5/25 | $21,225 | $21,300 | 66% | 76% | +$7,091 | -$91,964 | 58.4% | $-209,167 (vs do-nothing $-82,345) |
| $155 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 14/25 | $20,533 | $20,575 | 66% | 75% | +$4,457 | -$251,802 | 159.9% | $-351,690 (vs do-nothing $-224,868) |
| $157.50 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 23/25 | $20,400 | $20,408 | 66% | 75% | +$3,213 | -$402,405 | 255.5% | $-484,978 (vs do-nothing $-358,156) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $155 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 16/25 | $20,400 | $20,434 | 64% | 74% | +$4,783 | -$283,934 | 180.3% | $-379,974 (vs do-nothing $-253,152) |
| $155 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.65 | 20/25 | $19,957 | $19,975 | 63% | 73% | +$2,864 | -$353,217 | 224.3% | $-441,562 (vs do-nothing $-314,740) |
| $152.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 12/25 | $21,000 | $21,049 | 61% | 72% | +$3,816 | -$217,810 | 138.3% | $-321,546 (vs do-nothing $-194,724) |
| $152.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 15/25 | $20,250 | $20,288 | 60% | 71% | +$3,053 | -$269,338 | 171.0% | $-367,302 (vs do-nothing $-240,480) |
| $152.50 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.75 | 18/25 | $20,543 | $20,570 | 59% | 71% | +$2,328 | -$320,415 | 203.4% | $-412,608 (vs do-nothing $-285,786) |
| $150 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 4/25 | $22,800 | $22,879 | 57% | 71% | +$6,180 | -$74,183 | 47.1% | $-193,310 (vs do-nothing $-66,488) |
| $150 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.00 | 16/25 | $20,870 | $20,903 | 56% | 70% | +$3,131 | -$286,814 | 182.1% | $-382,854 (vs do-nothing $-256,032) |
| $150 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.35 | 10/25 | $21,167 | $21,223 | 56% | 69% | +$3,480 | -$182,909 | 116.1% | $-290,492 (vs do-nothing $-163,670) |
| $150 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.60 | 13/25 | $20,962 | $21,008 | 56% | 70% | +$3,544 | -$234,856 | 149.1% | $-336,668 (vs do-nothing $-209,846) |
| $149 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.35 | 15/25 | $20,250 | $20,288 | 54% | 69% | +$2,757 | -$269,863 | 171.3% | $-367,827 (vs do-nothing $-241,005) |
| $149 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 13/25 | $20,597 | $20,642 | 54% | 68% | +$2,086 | -$236,351 | 150.1% | $-338,163 (vs do-nothing $-211,341) |
| $149 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 9/25 | $20,250 | $20,310 | 53% | 69% | +$2,978 | -$165,158 | 104.9% | $-274,665 (vs do-nothing $-147,843) |
| $149 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 4/25 | $23,400 | $23,479 | 53% | 69% | +$4,183 | -$74,543 | 47.3% | $-193,670 (vs do-nothing $-66,848) |
| $148 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.80 | 15/25 | $21,130 | $21,168 | 53% | 69% | +$2,739 | -$270,688 | 171.9% | $-368,652 (vs do-nothing $-241,830) |
| $148 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.85 | 12/25 | $19,912 | $19,961 | 52% | 68% | +$1,770 | -$218,890 | 139.0% | $-322,626 (vs do-nothing $-195,804) |
| $147 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.35 | 14/25 | $20,726 | $20,767 | 51% | 68% | +$2,689 | -$253,272 | 160.8% | $-353,160 (vs do-nothing $-226,338) |
| $148 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 9/25 | $21,600 | $21,660 | 51% | 68% | +$2,892 | -$165,653 | 105.2% | $-275,160 (vs do-nothing $-148,338) |
| $147 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.30 | 12/25 | $20,925 | $20,974 | 50% | 67% | +$1,678 | -$219,550 | 139.4% | $-323,286 (vs do-nothing $-196,464) |
| $146 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.75 | 13/25 | $19,924 | $19,969 | 50% | 67% | +$2,335 | -$235,961 | 149.8% | $-337,773 (vs do-nothing $-210,951) |
| $148 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 4/25 | $26,400 | $26,479 | 49% | 67% | +$4,298 | -$74,743 | 47.5% | $-193,870 (vs do-nothing $-67,048) |
| $147 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.10 | 9/25 | $21,300 | $21,360 | 49% | 66% | +$1,071 | -$166,643 | 105.8% | $-276,150 (vs do-nothing $-149,328) |
| $146 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.85 | 11/25 | $20,316 | $20,368 | 49% | 66% | +$1,617 | -$201,749 | 128.1% | $-307,409 (vs do-nothing $-180,587) |
| $146 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 8/25 | $20,800 | $20,864 | 47% | 65% | +$1,504 | -$148,367 | 94.2% | $-259,798 (vs do-nothing $-132,976) |
| $147 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 3/25 | $21,375 | $21,458 | 45% | 65% | +$2,415 | -$56,253 | 35.7% | $-177,303 (vs do-nothing $-50,481) |
| $146 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.50 | 3/25 | $24,750 | $24,832 | 41% | 64% | +$3,187 | -$56,328 | 35.8% | $-177,378 (vs do-nothing $-50,556) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.