25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $340.76 (banked floor $335.80) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $37,800/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $15,148/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-200,812 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 20 × $160 | 79% | $19,050 | $2,570 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $170 | 14 Aug | 8d | 15.3% | 92%hist 99% | 16%hist 6% | +6pp | $2,400 | $9,000 | -$10,050 | $424,488 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $170 15.3% OTM over spot $147.44 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.12 mid) = $2,400 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $171.12) 93% EV / mo +$5,943 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,576/mo median; plan ~$4,472/mo after 68% keep · $56,944 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.9 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,834 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $183 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.75/sh now → $6.89 mid-life (likely $5.53–$9.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $173 (overshoots $3.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $171 below CC-SS $340.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.96 collected) or spot ≥ $171.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $340.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-200,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,305 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $170): -$424,488 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-503,995 ($-303,183 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-181,295 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-322,700, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,050, position total $-186,840 (+$13,972 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 21 × $165 | 14 Aug | 8d | 11.9% | 86%hist 95% | 30%hist 18% | +7pp | $3,381 | $12,679 | -$6,371 | $365,705 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $165 11.9% OTM over spot $147.44 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.75 mid) = $3,381 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,679/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $166.75) 88% EV / mo +$5,918 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 3% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,557/mo median; plan ~$5,139/mo after 68% keep · $66,853 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.8 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,370 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $180 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.26/sh now → $6.55 mid-life (likely $6.12–$9.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 615 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $169 (overshoots $3.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $176 below CC-SS $340.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.61 collected) or spot ≥ $166.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $340.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-200,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,305 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $165): -$365,705 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $300): -$16,286 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-461,498 ($-260,686 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-181,295 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-280,203, the opportunity cost of earning $12,679/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,017, position total $-195,791 (+$5,021 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $160 | 14 Aug | 8d | 8.5% | 79%hist 92% | 44%hist 32% | +9pp | $5,080 | $19,050 | — | $356,431 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $160 8.5% OTM over spot $147.44 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.68 mid) = $5,080 credit for the 8d cycle → $19,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $162.68) 83% EV / mo +$7,802 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,768/mo median; plan ~$6,642/mo after 68% keep · $84,889 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.6 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,342 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $180 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.78/sh now → $6.21 mid-life (likely $6.35–$9.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 940 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $163 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $181 below CC-SS $340.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.54 collected) or spot ≥ $162.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $340.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-200,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,305 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $160): -$356,431 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $300): -$20,358 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-456,295 ($-255,483 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-181,295 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-275,000, the opportunity cost of earning $19,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,680, position total $-203,450 ($-2,638 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $152.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 3.4% | 64%hist 78% | 74%hist 59% | +19pp | $10,375 | $38,906 | +$19,856 | $460,263 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $152.50 3.4% OTM over spot $147.44 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $4.68 mid) = $10,375 credit for the 8d cycle → $38,906/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $157.18) 74% EV / mo +$7,995 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 5% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,846/mo median; plan ~$9,415/mo after 68% keep · $118,497 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.0 mo [5.6-7.8], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,930 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $185 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.09/sh now → $5.72 mid-life (likely $7.19–$10.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,743 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $156 (overshoots $3.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $188 below CC-SS $340.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.04/sh (~25% of the $4.15 collected) or spot ≥ $157.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $340.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-200,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,305 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $152.50): -$460,263 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-539,770 ($-338,958 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-181,295 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-358,475, the opportunity cost of earning $38,906/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,825, position total $-222,615 ($-21,803 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.251 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$121,305 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-181,295
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.54 | 20/25 | $19,050 | $19,090 | 79% | 83% | +$7,802 | -$356,431 | 226.3% | $-456,295 (vs do-nothing $-275,000) |
| $157.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 17/25 | $19,125 | $19,189 | 75% | 80% | +$6,588 | -$306,434 | 194.6% | $-418,513 (vs do-nothing $-237,218) |
| $160 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 24/25 | $18,960 | $18,968 | 73% | 79% | +$4,651 | -$424,333 | 269.4% | $-507,911 (vs do-nothing $-326,616) |
| $157.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 21/25 | $19,530 | $19,562 | 70% | 77% | +$4,503 | -$375,071 | 238.1% | $-470,864 (vs do-nothing $-289,569) |
| $155 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 14/25 | $19,425 | $19,513 | 70% | 77% | +$5,992 | -$254,877 | 161.8% | $-379,171 (vs do-nothing $-197,876) |
| $157.50 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.95 | 24/25 | $19,473 | $19,481 | 68% | 76% | +$3,530 | -$425,533 | 270.2% | $-509,111 (vs do-nothing $-327,816) |
| $155 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 18/25 | $19,440 | $19,496 | 66% | 75% | +$4,036 | -$324,640 | 206.1% | $-432,647 (vs do-nothing $-251,352) |
| $155 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.00 | 20/25 | $19,091 | $19,131 | 65% | 74% | +$3,706 | -$357,511 | 227.0% | $-457,375 (vs do-nothing $-276,080) |
| $152.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 13/25 | $20,231 | $20,327 | 64% | 74% | +$4,157 | -$239,337 | 152.0% | $-367,702 (vs do-nothing $-186,407) |
| $152.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.25 | 16/25 | $20,000 | $20,072 | 62% | 73% | +$3,693 | -$291,208 | 184.9% | $-407,359 (vs do-nothing $-226,064) |
| $152.50 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.60 | 19/25 | $19,691 | $19,739 | 61% | 72% | +$2,815 | -$343,245 | 217.9% | $-447,181 (vs do-nothing $-265,886) |
| $150 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 10/25 | $18,938 | $19,058 | 58% | 71% | +$3,182 | -$185,705 | 117.9% | $-326,285 (vs do-nothing $-144,990) |
| $150 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.30 | 13/25 | $18,980 | $19,076 | 58% | 71% | +$3,274 | -$238,492 | 151.4% | $-366,857 (vs do-nothing $-185,562) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.45 | 15/25 | $19,330 | $19,410 | 57% | 71% | +$3,997 | -$271,958 | 172.7% | $-392,180 (vs do-nothing $-210,885) |
| $149 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 10/25 | $20,438 | $20,558 | 56% | 70% | +$3,138 | -$186,305 | 118.3% | $-326,885 (vs do-nothing $-145,590) |
| $149 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.00 | 16/25 | $19,636 | $19,708 | 56% | 70% | +$2,354 | -$292,408 | 185.7% | $-408,559 (vs do-nothing $-227,264) |
| $149 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.75 | 13/25 | $20,150 | $20,246 | 56% | 70% | +$3,363 | -$239,207 | 151.9% | $-367,572 (vs do-nothing $-186,277) |
| $148 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.50 | 15/25 | $19,432 | $19,512 | 54% | 69% | +$2,321 | -$274,883 | 174.5% | $-395,105 (vs do-nothing $-213,810) |
| $148 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.15 | 12/25 | $19,560 | $19,664 | 54% | 69% | +$3,013 | -$221,526 | 140.7% | $-353,963 (vs do-nothing $-172,668) |
| $148 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.85 | 9/25 | $19,744 | $19,872 | 54% | 69% | +$2,684 | -$168,215 | 106.8% | $-312,866 (vs do-nothing $-131,571) |
| $147 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.85 | 15/25 | $20,148 | $20,228 | 53% | 69% | +$2,090 | -$275,858 | 175.1% | $-396,080 (vs do-nothing $-214,785) |
| $147 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.00 | 12/25 | $19,200 | $19,304 | 52% | 68% | +$1,546 | -$222,906 | 141.5% | $-355,343 (vs do-nothing $-174,048) |
| $146 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.35 | 14/25 | $19,759 | $19,847 | 51% | 68% | +$1,983 | -$258,167 | 163.9% | $-382,461 (vs do-nothing $-201,166) |
| $147 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 8/25 | $19,800 | $19,936 | 51% | 68% | +$3,220 | -$149,724 | 95.1% | $-298,447 (vs do-nothing $-117,152) |
| $146 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 13/25 | $20,280 | $20,376 | 50% | 67% | $-105 | -$243,042 | 154.3% | $-371,407 (vs do-nothing $-190,112) |
| $145 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.80 | 13/25 | $19,145 | $19,241 | 50% | 67% | +$1,749 | -$240,442 | 152.7% | $-368,807 (vs do-nothing $-187,512) |
| $146 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 8/25 | $20,400 | $20,536 | 48% | 67% | +$2,311 | -$150,364 | 95.5% | $-299,087 (vs do-nothing $-117,792) |
| $145 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.65 | 10/25 | $19,300 | $19,420 | 48% | 67% | +$2,602 | -$186,105 | 118.2% | $-326,685 (vs do-nothing $-145,390) |
| $145 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.45 | 7/25 | $19,556 | $19,700 | 46% | 66% | +$2,326 | -$131,814 | 83.7% | $-284,608 (vs do-nothing $-103,313) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.