25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $353.43 (banked floor $344.20) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $41,625/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-188,688 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 4 Sep 2026 · 2d | 19 × $187.50 | 88% | $21,375 | $18,803 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 11 Sep 2026 · 9d | 24 × $187.50 | 75% | $21,440 | $6,597 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $190 | 4 Sep | 2d | 8.2% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +17pp | $936 | $14,040 | -$7,335 | $293,235 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $190 8.2% OTM over spot $175.62 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.54 mid) = $936 credit for the 2d cycle → $14,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $190.53) 92% EV / mo +$7,949 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 26% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,323/mo median; plan ~$7,020/mo after 68% keep · $85,208 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [4.1-7.2], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,904 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $229 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.24 mid-life (likely $3.22–$5.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 208 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $193 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $163 below CC-SS $353.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $190.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,688 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,577 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $190): -$293,235 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $490): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-358,339 ($-169,651 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,086 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-293,253, the opportunity cost of earning $14,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $206.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,592, position total $-196,491 ($-7,804 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $190 | 4 Sep | 2d | 8.2% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +24pp | $1,300 | $19,500 | -$1,875 | $407,271 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $190 8.2% OTM over spot $175.62 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.54 mid) = $1,300 credit for the 2d cycle → $19,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $190.53) 92% EV / mo +$11,040 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +24pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,770/mo median; plan ~$9,364/mo after 68% keep · $104,646 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo [3.6-7.1], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,810 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $229 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.24 mid-life (likely $3.36–$6.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 207 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $194 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $163 below CC-SS $353.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $190.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,688 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,577 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $190): -$407,271 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-472,382 ($-283,694 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,086 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-407,296, the opportunity cost of earning $19,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $206.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$41,100, position total $-208,006 ($-19,319 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $187.50 | 4 Sep | 2d | 6.8% | 88%hist 86% | 24%hist 27% | +27pp | $1,425 | $21,375 | — | $313,839 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $187.50 6.8% OTM over spot $175.62 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.80 mid) = $1,425 credit for the 2d cycle → $21,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $187.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $188.30) 89% EV / mo +$11,104 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +27pp 37% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,409/mo median; plan ~$9,798/mo after 68% keep · $111,128 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [3.6-6.9], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,600 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $227 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.48/sh now → $3.17 mid-life (likely $3.40–$6.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 361 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $191 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $187.50 is $166 below CC-SS $353.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $188.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,688 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,577 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $187.50): -$313,839 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $490): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-378,944 ($-190,256 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,086 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-313,858, the opportunity cost of earning $21,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $206.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,549, position total $-202,449 ($-13,762 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $182.50 | 4 Sep | 2d | 3.9% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 38% | +48pp | $2,888 | $43,320 | +$21,945 | $321,876 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $182.50 3.9% OTM over spot $175.62 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $1.57 mid) = $2,888 credit for the 2d cycle → $43,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $184.07) 81% EV / mo +$16,290 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +48pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $21,906/mo median; plan ~$14,896/mo after 68% keep · $155,806 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [4.2-7.4], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,863 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $227 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.28/sh now → $3.03 mid-life (likely $3.54–$7.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 863 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $186 (overshoots $3.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $171 below CC-SS $353.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.52 collected) or spot ≥ $184.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,688 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,577 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $182.50): -$321,876 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $490): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-386,981 ($-198,293 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,086 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-321,895, the opportunity cost of earning $43,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $206.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,586, position total $-210,486 ($-21,799 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $200 | 11 Sep | 9d | 13.9% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +6pp | $2,500 | $8,333 | -$13,107 | $381,071 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $200 13.9% OTM over spot $175.62 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.06 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $201.06) 91% EV / mo +$4,245 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,877/mo median; plan ~$3,996/mo after 68% keep · $50,961 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.1 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,891 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $219 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.70/sh now → $6.16 mid-life (likely $4.93–$8.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 436 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $204 (overshoots $3.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $153 below CC-SS $353.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $201.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,688 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,577 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $200): -$381,071 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-446,182 ($-257,494 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,086 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-381,096, the opportunity cost of earning $8,333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $206.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,900, position total $-181,806 (+$6,881 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $190 | 11 Sep | 9d | 8.2% | 79%hist 84% | 43%hist 38% | +7pp | $4,180 | $13,933 | -$7,507 | $306,334 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $190 8.2% OTM over spot $175.62 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.27 mid) = $4,180 credit for the 9d cycle → $13,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $192.27) 82% EV / mo +$3,833 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,099/mo median; plan ~$4,827/mo after 68% keep · $61,903 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo [4.7-7.7], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,495 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $214 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.94/sh now → $5.62 mid-life (likely $5.89–$8.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 950 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $194 (overshoots $3.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $163 below CC-SS $353.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.20 collected) or spot ≥ $192.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,688 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,577 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $190): -$306,334 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $490): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-371,439 ($-182,751 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,086 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-306,353, the opportunity cost of earning $13,933/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $206.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,044, position total $-194,944 ($-6,257 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $187.50 | 11 Sep | 9d | 6.8% | 75%hist 84% | 51%hist 43% | +15pp | $6,432 | $21,440 | — | $391,796 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $187.50 6.8% OTM over spot $175.62 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.75 mid) = $6,432 credit for the 9d cycle → $21,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $187.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $190.25) 80% EV / mo +$4,832 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 21% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,188/mo median; plan ~$6,928/mo after 68% keep · $86,456 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.0 mo [4.6-7.3], measured ONLY among the 21% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,739 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $217 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.76/sh now → $5.49 mid-life (likely $5.91–$8.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,151 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $191 (overshoots $3.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $187.50 is $166 below CC-SS $353.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.67/sh (~25% of the $2.68 collected) or spot ≥ $190.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,688 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,577 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $187.50): -$391,796 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $490): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-456,906 ($-268,219 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,086 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-391,820, the opportunity cost of earning $21,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $206.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$40,272, position total $-207,177 ($-18,490 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 22 × $177.50 | 11 Sep | 9d | 1.1% | 56%hist 70% | 91%hist 89% | +19pp | $12,650 | $42,167 | +$20,727 | $374,393 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $177.50 1.1% OTM over spot $175.62 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $5.95 mid) = $12,650 credit for the 9d cycle → $42,167/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $183.45) 68% EV / mo +$3,660 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~11.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,489/mo median; plan ~$8,492/mo after 68% keep · $106,017 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.2 mo [5.0-7.4], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,694 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $212 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.04/sh now → $4.98 mid-life (likely $6.87–$9.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,242 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $182 (overshoots $4.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $176 below CC-SS $353.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.44/sh (~25% of the $5.75 collected) or spot ≥ $183.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,688 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,577 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $177.50): -$374,393 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $490): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-439,500 ($-250,813 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,086 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-374,415, the opportunity cost of earning $42,167/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $206.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$52,162, position total $-219,065 ($-30,378 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.278 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$123,577 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-65,086
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $187.50 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.75 | 19/25 | $21,375 | $21,386 | 88% | 89% | +$11,104 | -$313,839 | 199.3% | $-378,944 (vs do-nothing $-313,858) |
| $185 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.06 | 14/25 | $22,260 | $22,281 | 83% | 86% | +$9,990 | -$234,316 | 148.8% | $-299,416 (vs do-nothing $-234,330) |
| $182.50 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.52 | 10/25 | $22,800 | $22,828 | 77% | 81% | +$8,574 | -$169,409 | 107.6% | $-234,504 (vs do-nothing $-169,419) |
| $187.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.68 | 24/25 | $21,440 | $21,442 | 75% | 80% | +$4,832 | -$391,796 | 248.8% | $-456,906 (vs do-nothing $-391,820) |
| $185 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.20 | 20/25 | $21,333 | $21,343 | 71% | 77% | +$3,545 | -$330,457 | 209.8% | $-395,563 (vs do-nothing $-330,477) |
| $180 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.15 | 7/25 | $22,575 | $22,609 | 69% | 76% | +$6,669 | -$119,895 | 76.1% | $-184,988 (vs do-nothing $-119,902) |
| $185 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.60 | 20/25 | $21,000 | $21,009 | 68% | 76% | +$5,285 | -$325,657 | 206.8% | $-390,763 (vs do-nothing $-325,677) |
| $182.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.90 | 17/25 | $22,100 | $22,115 | 66% | 74% | +$2,911 | -$283,949 | 180.3% | $-349,051 (vs do-nothing $-283,966) |
| $185 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.35 | 22/25 | $21,091 | $21,097 | 66% | 75% | +$4,914 | -$354,373 | 225.0% | $-419,480 (vs do-nothing $-354,395) |
| $180 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.75 | 14/25 | $22,167 | $22,187 | 61% | 71% | +$2,364 | -$236,150 | 149.9% | $-301,250 (vs do-nothing $-236,164) |
| $180 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.35 | 16/25 | $22,050 | $22,067 | 60% | 72% | +$4,616 | -$265,726 | 168.7% | $-330,827 (vs do-nothing $-265,742) |
| $180 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.15 | 18/25 | $21,483 | $21,496 | 59% | 71% | +$4,178 | -$295,701 | 187.7% | $-360,805 (vs do-nothing $-295,719) |
| $177.50 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.97 | 5/25 | $22,275 | $22,312 | 59% | 71% | +$4,769 | -$86,479 | 54.9% | $-151,570 (vs do-nothing $-86,484) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $177.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.75 | 11/25 | $21,083 | $21,110 | 56% | 68% | +$1,830 | -$187,196 | 118.9% | $-252,293 (vs do-nothing $-187,207) |
| $175 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.35 | 15/25 | $22,207 | $22,225 | 52% | 68% | +$3,564 | -$250,618 | 159.1% | $-315,718 (vs do-nothing $-250,633) |
| $175 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $9.50 | 12/25 | $21,375 | $21,399 | 51% | 68% | +$3,494 | -$202,714 | 128.7% | $-267,812 (vs do-nothing $-202,726) |
| $175 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.80 | 10/25 | $22,667 | $22,695 | 51% | 66% | +$1,278 | -$171,629 | 109.0% | $-236,724 (vs do-nothing $-171,639) |
| $172.50 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $12.30 | 13/25 | $20,857 | $20,879 | 48% | 66% | +$2,581 | -$219,217 | 139.2% | $-284,316 (vs do-nothing $-219,230) |
| $175 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.10 | 4/25 | $24,600 | $24,639 | 48% | 66% | +$4,108 | -$69,731 | 44.3% | $-134,821 (vs do-nothing $-69,735) |
| $172.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $8.05 | 8/25 | $21,467 | $21,499 | 45% | 63% | +$812 | -$138,303 | 87.8% | $-203,396 (vs do-nothing $-138,311) |
| $172.50 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 3/25 | $24,300 | $24,341 | 37% | 62% | +$2,642 | -$52,659 | 33.4% | $-117,747 (vs do-nothing $-52,662) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.