25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $350.48 (banked floor $341.19) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $46,103/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-182,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25x $225C 11 Sep 2026 | U10001299 | $0.88 | $2,200 | 2026-09-04 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 3d | 22 × $197.50 | 89% | $23,980 | $19,544 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 18 Sep 2026 · 10d | 22 × $195 | 77% | $23,430 | $2,838 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 22 × $202.50 | 11 Sep | 3d | 12.9% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 13% | +18pp | $1,584 | $15,840 | -$8,140 | $323,971 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $202.50 12.9% OTM over spot $179.44 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.77 mid) = $1,584 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $203.26) 94% EV / mo +$10,409 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,402/mo median; plan ~$7,753/mo after 68% keep · $85,600 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.6-6.9], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,656 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $236 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.87/sh now → $5.56 mid-life (likely $4.72–$8.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 155 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $207 (overshoots $4.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $148 below CC-SS $350.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $203.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,721 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $202.50): -$323,971 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $400): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-383,497 ($-201,247 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-323,993, the opportunity cost of earning $15,840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,520, position total $-167,557 (+$14,693 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $200 | 11 Sep | 3d | 11.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +24pp | $2,150 | $21,500 | -$2,480 | $374,049 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $200 11.5% OTM over spot $179.44 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.95 mid) = $2,150 credit for the 3d cycle → $21,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $200.94) 92% EV / mo +$13,061 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +24pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,166/mo median; plan ~$10,313/mo after 68% keep · $107,646 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.2-6.7], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,474 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $233 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.71/sh now → $5.45 mid-life (likely $4.68–$9.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 208 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $204 (overshoots $3.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $150 below CC-SS $350.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $200.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,721 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $200): -$374,049 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-433,578 ($-251,328 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-374,074, the opportunity cost of earning $21,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,900, position total $-173,940 (+$8,310 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $197.50 | 11 Sep | 3d | 10.1% | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 26% | +30pp | $2,398 | $23,980 | — | $334,157 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $197.50 10.1% OTM over spot $179.44 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $1.18 mid) = $2,398 credit for the 3d cycle → $23,980/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $198.68) 90% EV / mo +$13,707 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +30pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,908/mo median; plan ~$10,817/mo after 68% keep · $110,980 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.6-7.1], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,343 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $233 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.55/sh now → $5.34 mid-life (likely $5.12–$9.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 282 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $202 (overshoots $4.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $197.50 is $153 below CC-SS $350.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.09 collected) or spot ≥ $198.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,721 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $197.50): -$334,157 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $400): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-393,683 ($-211,433 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-334,179, the opportunity cost of earning $23,980/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,706, position total $-177,743 (+$4,507 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 21 × $190 | 11 Sep | 3d | 5.9% | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 39% | +49pp | $4,746 | $47,460 | +$23,480 | $332,261 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $190 5.9% OTM over spot $179.44 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $2.34 mid) = $4,746 credit for the 3d cycle → $47,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $192.34) 83% EV / mo +$21,587 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +49pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $23,711/mo median; plan ~$16,123/mo after 68% keep · $154,916 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo [3.7-6.6], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,764 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $231 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.08/sh now → $5.00 mid-life (likely $5.29–$9.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 802 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $194 (overshoots $4.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $160 below CC-SS $350.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $192.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,721 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $190): -$332,261 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $400): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-391,786 ($-209,536 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-332,282, the opportunity cost of earning $47,460/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,376, position total $-190,412 ($-8,162 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $215 | 18 Sep | 10d | 19.8% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +10pp | $3,075 | $9,225 | -$14,205 | $335,624 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $215 19.8% OTM over spot $179.44 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.32 mid) = $3,075 credit for the 10d cycle → $9,225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $215) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $216.32) 92% EV / mo +$4,605 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,265/mo median; plan ~$4,261/mo after 68% keep · $51,060 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [3.4-6.8], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$20,454 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $236 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.31/sh now → $9.41 mid-life (likely $6.69–$12.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 226 simulated challenges: the $215 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $219 (overshoots $4.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $215 is $135 below CC-SS $350.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.23 collected) or spot ≥ $216.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $215)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,721 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $215): -$335,624 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-395,153 ($-212,903 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-335,649, the opportunity cost of earning $9,225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-164,040 (+$18,210 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 24 × $205 | 18 Sep | 10d | 14.2% | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 26% | +14pp | $5,160 | $15,480 | -$7,950 | $343,991 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $205 14.2% OTM over spot $179.44 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.26 mid) = $5,160 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $207.26) 88% EV / mo +$6,793 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,155/mo median; plan ~$6,225/mo after 68% keep · $76,029 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [4.1-7.5], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,618 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $226 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.24/sh now → $8.66 mid-life (likely $7.85–$11.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 501 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $209 (overshoots $4.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $145 below CC-SS $350.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.15 collected) or spot ≥ $207.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,721 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $205): -$343,991 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-403,519 ($-221,269 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-344,015, the opportunity cost of earning $15,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-164,039 (+$18,211 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $195 | 18 Sep | 10d | 8.7% | 77%hist 83% | 48%hist 39% | +18pp | $7,810 | $23,430 | — | $334,245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $195 8.7% OTM over spot $179.44 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $3.88 mid) = $7,810 credit for the 10d cycle → $23,430/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $195) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $198.88) 81% EV / mo +$7,596 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,688/mo median; plan ~$7,268/mo after 68% keep · $87,460 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo [4.4-7.2], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,645 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $221 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.22/sh now → $7.93 mid-life (likely $8.45–$12.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,043 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $199 (overshoots $4.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $195 is $155 below CC-SS $350.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.89/sh (~25% of the $3.55 collected) or spot ≥ $198.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,721 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $195): -$334,245 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $400): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-393,771 ($-211,521 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-334,267, the opportunity cost of earning $23,430/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,794, position total $-177,831 (+$4,419 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $185 | 18 Sep | 10d | 3.1% | 63%hist 65% | 78%hist 64% | +34pp | $15,875 | $47,625 | +$24,195 | $397,824 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $185 3.1% OTM over spot $179.44 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $6.82 mid) = $15,875 credit for the 10d cycle → $47,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $191.82) 74% EV / mo +$11,751 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +34pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $16,176/mo median; plan ~$11,000/mo after 68% keep · $126,474 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.1 mo [4.3-7.5], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,230 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $226 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.24/sh now → $7.24 mid-life (likely $9.45–$12.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,924 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $189 (overshoots $4.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $165 below CC-SS $350.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.59/sh (~25% of the $6.35 collected) or spot ≥ $191.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,721 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $185): -$397,824 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-457,353 ($-275,103 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-397,849, the opportunity cost of earning $47,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,675, position total $-197,715 ($-15,465 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.287 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$122,721 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-59,504
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $197.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.09 | 22/25 | $23,980 | $23,989 | 89% | 90% | +$13,707 | -$334,157 | 212.2% | $-393,683 (vs do-nothing $-334,179) |
| $195 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.40 | 17/25 | $23,800 | $23,824 | 86% | 88% | +$12,778 | -$261,935 | 166.3% | $-321,456 (vs do-nothing $-261,952) |
| $192.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.77 | 14/25 | $24,780 | $24,813 | 83% | 86% | +$12,233 | -$218,693 | 138.9% | $-278,212 (vs do-nothing $-218,707) |
| $190 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.26 | 11/25 | $24,860 | $24,902 | 79% | 83% | +$11,307 | -$174,042 | 110.5% | $-233,557 (vs do-nothing $-174,053) |
| $195 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.55 | 22/25 | $23,430 | $23,439 | 77% | 81% | +$7,596 | -$334,245 | 212.2% | $-393,771 (vs do-nothing $-334,267) |
| $192.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.10 | 19/25 | $23,370 | $23,388 | 74% | 80% | +$7,110 | -$292,371 | 185.6% | $-351,894 (vs do-nothing $-292,390) |
| $195 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 25/25 | $23,382 | $23,382 | 73% | 79% | +$6,900 | -$375,449 | 238.4% | $-434,978 (vs do-nothing $-375,474) |
| $187.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.80 | 9/25 | $25,200 | $25,248 | 73% | 80% | +$10,066 | -$144,162 | 91.5% | $-203,675 (vs do-nothing $-144,171) |
| $192.50 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.90 | 23/25 | $23,947 | $23,953 | 71% | 78% | +$6,485 | -$349,783 | 222.1% | $-409,310 (vs do-nothing $-349,806) |
| $190 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.85 | 16/25 | $23,280 | $23,307 | 70% | 78% | +$7,000 | -$249,007 | 158.1% | $-308,527 (vs do-nothing $-249,023) |
| $192.50 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.40 | 25/25 | $23,125 | $23,125 | 69% | 77% | +$5,708 | -$376,449 | 239.0% | $-435,978 (vs do-nothing $-376,474) |
| $190 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.65 | 20/25 | $23,471 | $23,486 | 68% | 76% | +$6,002 | -$307,659 | 195.3% | $-367,183 (vs do-nothing $-307,679) |
| $185 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.40 | 7/25 | $23,800 | $23,854 | 67% | 76% | +$7,875 | -$113,456 | 72.0% | $-172,967 (vs do-nothing $-113,463) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $187.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.55 | 14/25 | $23,310 | $23,343 | 67% | 76% | +$6,383 | -$220,401 | 139.9% | $-279,920 (vs do-nothing $-220,415) |
| $190 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.35 | 23/25 | $24,006 | $24,012 | 66% | 76% | +$5,982 | -$349,898 | 222.2% | $-409,425 (vs do-nothing $-349,921) |
| $187.50 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.50 | 18/25 | $23,824 | $23,845 | 65% | 75% | +$5,762 | -$279,863 | 177.7% | $-339,385 (vs do-nothing $-279,881) |
| $187.50 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.05 | 21/25 | $23,756 | $23,768 | 63% | 74% | +$5,260 | -$323,252 | 205.2% | $-382,777 (vs do-nothing $-323,273) |
| $185 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.35 | 13/25 | $24,765 | $24,801 | 63% | 74% | +$6,110 | -$206,869 | 131.3% | $-266,386 (vs do-nothing $-206,882) |
| $185 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.40 | 16/25 | $23,718 | $23,745 | 61% | 73% | +$5,307 | -$251,327 | 159.6% | $-310,847 (vs do-nothing $-251,343) |
| $182.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.35 | 6/25 | $26,100 | $26,157 | 61% | 73% | +$7,821 | -$98,178 | 62.3% | $-157,688 (vs do-nothing $-98,184) |
| $185 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.90 | 19/25 | $23,512 | $23,530 | 60% | 73% | +$4,725 | -$295,601 | 187.7% | $-355,124 (vs do-nothing $-295,620) |
| $182.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.40 | 11/25 | $24,420 | $24,462 | 58% | 71% | +$5,723 | -$176,638 | 112.2% | $-236,153 (vs do-nothing $-176,649) |
| $182.50 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.35 | 14/25 | $23,100 | $23,133 | 57% | 71% | +$4,668 | -$222,081 | 141.0% | $-281,600 (vs do-nothing $-222,095) |
| $182.50 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.00 | 17/25 | $23,375 | $23,399 | 57% | 71% | +$4,528 | -$266,865 | 169.4% | $-326,386 (vs do-nothing $-266,882) |
| $180 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $12.00 | 16/25 | $24,000 | $24,027 | 54% | 70% | +$4,145 | -$253,567 | 161.0% | $-313,087 (vs do-nothing $-253,583) |
| $180 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $10.45 | 13/25 | $23,974 | $24,010 | 54% | 70% | +$4,444 | -$208,039 | 132.1% | $-267,556 (vs do-nothing $-208,052) |
| $180 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $8.60 | 9/25 | $23,220 | $23,268 | 53% | 70% | +$5,152 | -$145,692 | 92.5% | $-205,205 (vs do-nothing $-145,701) |
| $180 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.50 | 5/25 | $27,500 | $27,560 | 53% | 70% | +$7,354 | -$82,490 | 52.4% | $-141,999 (vs do-nothing $-82,495) |
| $177.50 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $13.30 | 14/25 | $23,275 | $23,308 | 51% | 68% | +$3,870 | -$223,551 | 141.9% | $-283,070 (vs do-nothing $-223,565) |
| $177.50 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.75 | 12/25 | $24,882 | $24,921 | 50% | 68% | +$4,377 | -$193,476 | 122.8% | $-252,992 (vs do-nothing $-193,488) |
| $177.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $9.65 | 8/25 | $23,160 | $23,211 | 48% | 67% | +$4,267 | -$130,664 | 83.0% | $-190,176 (vs do-nothing $-130,672) |
| $177.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.65 | 4/25 | $26,600 | $26,663 | 45% | 67% | +$5,596 | -$66,532 | 42.2% | $-126,040 (vs do-nothing $-66,536) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.