FORTRESS FIGHT: COIN-LC500 @ $180.81

BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $350.31 | 25 contracts (2,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

COIN-LC500BBC @ $180.81 UNDERWATER $382.19 (67.9% below BE SS)

25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $350.31 (banked floor $341.05) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $500 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $79.745/sh)

SP: $330 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $100.135/sh)

HP: $300 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $83.388/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$232,500	(ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500
Normal income ref	$44,250/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-182,000	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$22,125/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$44,250/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $157,500

ML VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $232,500

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $350.31 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $300C (16d, $375/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$12,888

Hole (after banked)

$169,112

was $182,000 · 7% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$2,200

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$350.31 → $341.05

? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
25x $225C 11 Sep 2026	U10001299	$0.88	$2,200	2026-09-04

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 65 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 54 · %B 61 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $204.80 (+13%) · daily UBB $203.21 · 1-wk expected move ±$17 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 21 contracts at $197.50 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 90%, breach 10%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($22,125/mo); it brings $22,365/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 24 × $192.50/2d for $45,360/mo, but breach risk rises to 17% (+7pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 25 × $360/9d (99+% survival, $83/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $319,408 (203% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $563, recoverable in 7.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 21 contracts realizes $-152,996 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 11 Sep 2026 (2d) · sell 21 × $197.50, 90% survival, $22,365/mo (E[net] $20,293/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	11 Sep 2026 · 2d	21 × $197.50	90%	$22,365	$20,293
NEXT FRIDAY	18 Sep 2026 · 9d	23 × $197.50	79%	$22,157	$6,522

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,491 with probability 91%; on the 9% touch you roll, paying $8,159 to close and taking $9,852 back from the best priced door (net cash $0) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 11 Sep 2026 · 2d · E[net] $20,293/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 21 × $197.50 (50% normal), 90% survival, breach 10%, $22,365/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $202.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 94% (breach 10% → 6%) for $7,365/mo less (33% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

COIN spot $180.81 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

33% normal

25 × $202.50

11 Sep

12.0%

94%hist 96%

12%hist 13%

+15pp

$1,000

$15,000

-$7,365

$368,523

Sell 25 × $202.50 12.0% OTM over spot $180.81 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.45 mid)

= $1,000 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $202.50)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $202.95)

95%

EV / mo

+$8,897

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+15pp

34% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$10,694/mo

median; plan ~$7,272/mo after 68% keep · $78,391 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [2.8-6.5], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$9,114

Free roll-up

+$14/wk

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$247 @ 89% POP

88% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.72/sh now → $4.05 mid-life (likely $3.87–$7.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 105 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $207 (overshoots $4.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$202	18 Sep 2026	8d left	+$4.91/sh	+$12,278 cycle +$13,278 [+$11,819…+$13,635] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$152,943 NOT cap gain +$29,057
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$237	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.87/sh	+$2,174 cycle +$3,174 [-$2,352…+$3,095] · 60% credit	84% surv 82%	-$138,173 NOT cap gain +$43,827
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$217	18 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.34/sh	+$856 cycle +$1,856 [-$3,178…+$1,347] · 50% credit	79% surv 74%	-$154,042 NOT cap gain +$27,958
Max even-money escape in the band	~$242	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.18/sh	+$442 cycle +$1,442 [-$4,581…+$1,269] · 45% credit	86% surv 84%	-$136,268 NOT cap gain +$45,732
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$247	2 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.25/sh	-$618 cycle +$382 [-$5,437…+$215] · 29% credit	89% surv 88%	-$133,690 NOT cap gain +$48,310
budget: banked $1,000 debit $618 (62% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$382 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $12,950/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,000/mo
vs 50% target ($22,125/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($44,250/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,000/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $202.50 is $148 below CC-SS $350.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$368,523
… as % of IC ($157,500)	234.0%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	158.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.3 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-182,125

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $202.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $200.47	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $200-202.95	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $202.95	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$202.50 (2.3σ)	$1,000	$-165,221	+$16,779	+$800
+2.5%	$207.56 (2.9σ)	$-11,656	$-174,194	+$7,806	-$11,856
+5%	$212.62 (3.4σ)	$-24,312	$-183,167	-$1,167	-$24,512
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (41.2σ)	$-900,250	$-804,207	-$622,207	-$242,950

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,000

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,311

− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $202.50): -$368,523

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-427,212 ($-245,212 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-184,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-242,950, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $204.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,750, position total $-169,297 (+$12,703 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

21 × $197.50

11 Sep

9.2%

90%hist 96%

20%hist 26%

+27pp

$1,491

$22,365

—

$319,408

Sell 21 × $197.50 9.2% OTM over spot $180.81 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.76 mid)

= $1,491 credit for the 2d cycle → $22,365/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $197.50)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $198.26)

91%

EV / mo

+$11,131

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+27pp

48% whole by 9mo vs 21% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$15,481/mo

median; plan ~$10,527/mo after 68% keep · $99,663 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.7 mo [2.9-6.4], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,668

Free roll-up

+$14/wk

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$242 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.49/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $4.17–$7.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 278 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $202 (overshoots $4.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (21 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$198	18 Sep 2026	8d left	+$4.69/sh	+$9,852 cycle +$11,343 [+$9,401…+$10,754] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$158,483 NOT cap gain +$23,517
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$227	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.38/sh	+$2,900 cycle +$4,391 [-$401…+$2,961] · 72% credit	83% surv 80%	-$144,199 NOT cap gain +$37,801
Max even-money escape in the band	~$232	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.56/sh	+$1,184 cycle +$2,675 [-$2,594…+$1,127] · 45% credit	85% surv 82%	-$142,278 NOT cap gain +$39,722
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$212	18 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.16/sh	+$343 cycle +$1,834 [-$2,879…+$133] · 29% credit	79% surv 74%	-$157,669 NOT cap gain +$24,331
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$242	2 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.55/sh	-$1,153 cycle +$338 [-$5,225…-$1,323] · 9% credit	90% surv 89%	-$137,340 NOT cap gain +$44,660
budget: banked $1,491 debit $1,153 (77% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$338 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $9,554/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$22,365/mo
vs 50% target ($22,125/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($44,250/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$22,425/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $197.50 is $153 below CC-SS $350.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$319,408
… as % of IC ($157,500)	202.8%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	137.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.2 mo
Surgical close (21 ct)	$-152,996

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $198.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $195.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $196-198.26	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $198.26	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$197.50 (1.8σ)	$1,491	$-168,335	+$13,665	+$1,323
+2.5%	$202.44 (2.3σ)	$-8,878	$-175,112	+$6,888	-$9,046
+5%	$207.38 (2.9σ)	$-19,246	$-181,888	+$112	-$19,414
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (41.2σ)	$-766,059	$-775,184	-$593,184	-$213,927

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,000

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,311

− CC assignment net of premium (21 × $197.50): -$319,408

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $300): -$20,092

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-398,189 ($-216,189 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-184,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-213,927, the opportunity cost of earning $22,365/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $204.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,839, position total $-178,354 (+$3,646 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

25 × $197.50

11 Sep

9.2%

90%hist 96%

20%hist 26%

+34pp

$1,775

$26,625

+$4,260

$380,248

Sell 25 × $197.50 9.2% OTM over spot $180.81 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.76 mid)

= $1,775 credit for the 2d cycle → $26,625/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $197.50)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $198.26)

91%

EV / mo

+$13,251

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+34pp

52% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$17,370/mo

median; plan ~$11,811/mo after 68% keep · $117,772 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.0-6.7], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,939

Free roll-up

+$14/wk

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$242 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.49/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $3.95–$7.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 265 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $202 (overshoots $4.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$198	18 Sep 2026	8d left	+$4.69/sh	+$11,728 cycle +$13,503 [+$10,924…+$12,959] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$156,355 NOT cap gain +$25,645
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$227	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.38/sh	+$3,453 cycle +$5,228 [-$1,002…+$4,098] · 69% credit	83% surv 80%	-$143,394 NOT cap gain +$38,606
Max even-money escape in the band	~$232	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.56/sh	+$1,409 cycle +$3,184 [-$3,636…+$1,908] · 47% credit	85% surv 82%	-$141,800 NOT cap gain +$40,200
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$212	18 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.16/sh	+$408 cycle +$2,183 [-$3,960…+$566] · 33% credit	79% surv 74%	-$157,352 NOT cap gain +$24,648
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$242	2 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.55/sh	-$1,373 cycle +$402 [-$6,786…-$989] · 12% credit	90% surv 89%	-$137,307 NOT cap gain +$44,693
budget: banked $1,775 debit $1,373 (77% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$402 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $11,374/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$26,625/mo
vs 50% target ($22,125/mo)	+20%
vs normal income ($44,250/mo)	60% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$26,625/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $197.50 is $153 below CC-SS $350.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$380,248
… as % of IC ($157,500)	241.4%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	163.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.6 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-182,138

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $195.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $196-198.26	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $198.26	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$197.50 (1.8σ)	$1,775	$-168,083	+$13,917	+$1,575
+2.5%	$202.44 (2.3σ)	$-10,569	$-176,835	+$5,165	-$10,769
+5%	$207.38 (2.9σ)	$-22,912	$-185,586	-$3,586	-$23,112
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (41.2σ)	$-911,975	$-815,932	-$633,932	-$254,675

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,000

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,311

− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $197.50): -$380,248

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-438,937 ($-256,937 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-184,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-254,675, the opportunity cost of earning $26,625/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $204.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,475, position total $-181,022 (+$978 vs today)

▸

100% normal

24 × $192.50

11 Sep

6.5%

83%hist 86%

35%hist 31%

+44pp

$3,024

$45,360

+$22,995

$375,718

Sell 24 × $192.50 6.5% OTM over spot $180.81 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $1.32 mid)

= $3,024 credit for the 2d cycle → $45,360/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $192.50)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $193.82)

85%

EV / mo

+$17,686

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+44pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~6.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$24,749/mo

median; plan ~$16,829/mo after 68% keep · $147,392 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.2 mo [2.7-5.7], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,924

Free roll-up

+$12/wk

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$237 @ 91% POP

89% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.27/sh now → $3.73 mid-life (likely $3.97–$7.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 482 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $197 (overshoots $4.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (24 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$192	18 Sep 2026	8d left	+$4.48/sh	+$10,744 cycle +$13,768 [+$9,691…+$11,555] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$159,720 NOT cap gain +$22,280
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$217	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.98/sh	+$4,753 cycle +$7,777 [+$279…+$4,644] · 76% credit	81% surv 77%	-$148,112 NOT cap gain +$33,888
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$204	18 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.51/sh	+$1,221 cycle +$4,245 [-$3,088…+$1,067] · 45% credit	78% surv 72%	-$160,738 NOT cap gain +$21,262
Max even-money escape in the band	~$227	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.28/sh	+$665 cycle +$3,689 [-$5,062…+$455] · 32% credit	85% surv 83%	-$144,926 NOT cap gain +$37,074
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$237	2 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.82/sh	-$1,972 cycle +$1,052 [-$8,082…-$2,219] · 2% credit	91% surv 89%	-$140,287 NOT cap gain +$41,713
budget: banked $3,024 debit $1,972 (65% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,052 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $9,512/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$45,360/mo
vs 50% target ($22,125/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($44,250/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$45,375/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $192.50 is $158 below CC-SS $350.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$375,718
… as % of IC ($157,500)	238.6%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	161.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.5 mo
Surgical close (24 ct)	$-174,864

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.26 collected) or spot ≥ $193.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $190.57	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $191-193.82	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $193.82	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$192.50 (1.3σ)	$3,024	$-170,464	+$11,536	+$2,832
+2.5%	$197.31 (1.8σ)	$-8,526	$-178,512	+$3,488	-$8,718
+5%	$202.12 (2.3σ)	$-20,076	$-186,561	-$4,561	-$20,268
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (41.2σ)	$-886,176	$-816,425	-$634,425	-$255,168

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,000

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,311

− CC assignment net of premium (24 × $192.50): -$375,718

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $300): -$5,023

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-439,430 ($-257,430 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-184,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-255,168, the opportunity cost of earning $45,360/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $204.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,496, position total $-191,035 ($-9,035 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COIN are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 18 Sep 2026 · 9d · E[net] $6,522/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 23 × $197.50 (50% normal), 79% survival, breach 21%, $22,157/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $205 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 21% → 14%) for $7,157/mo less (32% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $205 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect COIN to stay flat-to-down near term.

COIN spot $180.81 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

25 × $215

18 Sep

18.9%

92%hist 96%

17%hist 13%

+8pp

$2,425

$8,083

-$14,073

$335,848

Sell 25 × $215 18.9% OTM over spot $180.81 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.05 mid)

= $2,425 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,083/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $215)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $216.06)

93%

EV / mo

+$3,627

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

24% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,623/mo

median; plan ~$3,824/mo after 68% keep · $45,689 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.4-6.9], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$17,241

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$239 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $11.12/sh now → $7.87 mid-life (likely $5.79–$10.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 219 simulated challenges: the $215 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $220 (overshoots $4.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$215	25 Sep 2026	12d left	+$3.57/sh	+$8,915 cycle +$11,340 [+$9,229…+$14,154] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$145,786 NOT cap gain +$36,214
Max even-money escape in the band	~$234	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$773 cycle +$3,198 [-$799…+$5,497] · 68% credit	78% surv 72%	-$139,968 NOT cap gain +$42,032
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$224	25 Sep 2026	12d left	+$0.20/sh	+$494 cycle +$2,919 [-$704…+$4,219] · 67% credit	73% surv 64%	-$147,522 NOT cap gain +$34,478
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$239	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.91/sh	-$2,269 cycle +$156 [-$4,626…+$2,160] · 38% credit	80% surv 75%	-$139,372 NOT cap gain +$42,628
budget: banked $2,425 debit $2,269 (94% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$156 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $28,996/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,083/mo
vs 50% target ($22,125/mo)	-63%
vs normal income ($44,250/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,083/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $215 is $135 below CC-SS $350.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$335,848
… as % of IC ($157,500)	213.2%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	144.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.6 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-182,213

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $216.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $215)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $212.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $213-216.06	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $216.06	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$215.00 (1.7σ)	$2,425	$-154,702	+$27,298	+$2,225
+2.5%	$220.37 (2.0σ)	$-11,012	$-164,229	+$17,771	-$11,212
+5%	$225.75 (2.3σ)	$-24,450	$-173,756	+$8,244	-$24,650
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (19.4σ)	$-867,575	$-771,532	-$589,532	-$210,275

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,000

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,311

− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $215): -$335,848

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-394,537 ($-212,537 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-184,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-210,275, the opportunity cost of earning $8,083/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $204.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-164,547 (+$17,453 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

25 × $205

18 Sep

13.4%

86%hist 86%

29%hist 26%

+15pp

$4,500

$15,000

-$7,157

$358,773

Sell 25 × $205 13.4% OTM over spot $180.81 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.90 mid)

= $4,500 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $205)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $206.90)

88%

EV / mo

+$5,652

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+15pp

28% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$8,738/mo

median; plan ~$5,942/mo after 68% keep · $70,933 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [3.4-6.9], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$13,599

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$229 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $10.24/sh now → $7.24 mid-life (likely $6.30–$10.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 469 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $209 (overshoots $4.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$205	25 Sep 2026	12d left	+$3.27/sh	+$8,184 cycle +$12,684 [+$7,510…+$11,072] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$151,718 NOT cap gain +$30,282
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$219	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.12/sh	+$2,795 cycle +$7,295 [+$640…+$5,121] · 80% credit	76% surv 69%	-$146,784 NOT cap gain +$35,216
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$212	25 Sep 2026	12d left	+$0.74/sh	+$1,844 cycle +$6,344 [+$236…+$3,733] · 77% credit	72% surv 62%	-$153,191 NOT cap gain +$28,809
Max even-money escape in the band	~$222	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.37/sh	+$918 cycle +$5,418 [-$1,601…+$3,045] · 58% credit	77% surv 71%	-$146,842 NOT cap gain +$35,158
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$229	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.31/sh	-$3,275 cycle +$1,225 [-$6,646…-$1,448] · 18% credit	81% surv 77%	-$145,579 NOT cap gain +$36,421
budget: banked $4,500 debit $3,275 (73% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,225 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $24,706/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,000/mo
vs 50% target ($22,125/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($44,250/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,000/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $205 is $145 below CC-SS $350.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$358,773
… as % of IC ($157,500)	227.8%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	154.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.1 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-182,250

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $206.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $202.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $203-206.90	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $206.90	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$205.00 (1.2σ)	$4,500	$-159,902	+$22,098	+$4,300
+2.5%	$210.12 (1.5σ)	$-8,312	$-168,986	+$13,014	-$8,512
+5%	$215.25 (1.8σ)	$-21,125	$-178,070	+$3,930	-$21,325
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (19.4σ)	$-890,500	$-794,457	-$612,457	-$233,200

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,000

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,311

− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $205): -$358,773

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-417,462 ($-235,462 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-184,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-233,200, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $204.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-164,547 (+$17,453 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

23 × $197.50

18 Sep

9.2%

79%hist 83%

43%hist 39%

+19pp

$6,647

$22,157

—

$344,814

Sell 23 × $197.50 9.2% OTM over spot $180.81 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $3.07 mid)

= $6,647 credit for the 9d cycle → $22,157/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $197.50)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $200.57)

83%

EV / mo

+$6,986

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+19pp

31% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$10,762/mo

median; plan ~$7,318/mo after 68% keep · $86,739 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [4.3-7.0], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$8,961

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$227 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.59/sh now → $6.79 mid-life (likely $6.69–$10.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 925 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $202 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (23 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$198	25 Sep 2026	12d left	+$3.06/sh	+$7,043 cycle +$13,690 [+$5,788…+$8,897] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$156,152 NOT cap gain +$25,848
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$209	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.42/sh	+$3,273 cycle +$9,920 [+$750…+$4,633] · 84% credit	75% surv 67%	-$151,418 NOT cap gain +$30,582
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$204	25 Sep 2026	12d left	+$0.53/sh	+$1,217 cycle +$7,864 [-$842…+$2,244] · 57% credit	72% surv 62%	-$157,111 NOT cap gain +$24,889
Max even-money escape in the band	~$214	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.03/sh	+$75 cycle +$6,722 [-$3,009…+$1,173] · 34% credit	78% surv 72%	-$150,978 NOT cap gain +$31,022
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$227	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$2.48/sh	-$5,702 cycle +$945 [-$10,046…-$5,197] · 4% credit	84% surv 81%	-$147,662 NOT cap gain +$34,338
budget: banked $6,647 debit $5,702 (86% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$945 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $16,509/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$22,157/mo
vs 50% target ($22,125/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($44,250/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$22,187/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $197.50 is $153 below CC-SS $350.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$344,814
… as % of IC ($157,500)	218.9%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	148.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.8 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-167,854

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.72/sh (~25% of the $2.89 collected) or spot ≥ $200.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $195.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $196-200.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $200.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$197.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$6,647	$-163,195	+$18,805	+$6,463
+2.5%	$202.44 (1.1σ)	$-4,709	$-170,959	+$11,041	-$4,893
+5%	$207.38 (1.4σ)	$-16,066	$-178,723	+$3,277	-$16,250
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (19.4σ)	$-834,003	$-790,544	-$608,544	-$229,287

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,000

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,311

− CC assignment net of premium (23 × $197.50): -$344,814

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $300): -$10,046

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-413,549 ($-231,549 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-184,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-229,287, the opportunity cost of earning $22,157/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $204.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,143, position total $-174,674 (+$7,326 vs today)

▸

100% normal

22 × $185

18 Sep

2.3%

60%hist 65%

83%hist 79%

+27pp

$13,530

$45,100

+$22,943

$350,150

Sell 22 × $185 2.3% OTM over spot $180.81 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $6.40 mid)

= $13,530 credit for the 9d cycle → $45,100/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $185)

60%

Breach risk

40%

POP (stays ≤ $191.40)

71%

EV / mo

+$8,243

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+27pp

38% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~8.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$14,436/mo

median; plan ~$9,816/mo after 68% keep · $115,160 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [4.4-7.4], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

66%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$194

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$224 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.57/sh now → $6.06 mid-life (likely $8.08–$11.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,994 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $189 (overshoots $4.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (22 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$185	25 Sep 2026	12d left	+$2.73/sh	+$5,996 cycle +$19,526 [+$4,046…+$5,221] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$159,402 NOT cap gain +$22,598
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$194	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.59/sh	+$3,496 cycle +$17,026 [+$85…+$2,007] · 77% credit	74% surv 65%	-$155,216 NOT cap gain +$26,784
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$192	25 Sep 2026	12d left	+$0.20/sh	+$445 cycle +$13,975 [-$2,464…-$886] · 15% credit	72% surv 63%	-$160,086 NOT cap gain +$21,914
Max even-money escape in the band	~$199	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.20/sh	+$444 cycle +$13,974 [-$3,603…-$1,381] · 13% credit	77% surv 71%	-$154,631 NOT cap gain +$27,369
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$224	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$3.91/sh	-$8,604 cycle +$4,926 [-$15,930…-$11,619]	90% surv 89%	-$145,491 NOT cap gain +$36,509
budget: banked $13,530 debit $8,604 (64% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,926 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $7,887/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$45,100/mo
vs 50% target ($22,125/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($44,250/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$45,145/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $185 is $165 below CC-SS $350.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$350,150
… as % of IC ($157,500)	222.3%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	150.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.9 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)	$-160,710

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.54/sh (~25% of the $6.15 collected) or spot ≥ $191.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $203.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $183.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $183-191.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $191.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.29 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$185.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$13,530	$-165,398	+$16,602	+$13,354
+2.5%	$189.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,355	$-172,208	+$9,792	+$3,179
+5%	$194.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-6,820	$-179,018	+$2,982	-$6,996
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (19.4σ)	$-818,070	$-800,903	-$618,903	-$239,646

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $350.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,000

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$123,311

− CC assignment net of premium (22 × $185): -$350,150

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $300): -$15,069

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-423,908 ($-241,908 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-184,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-239,646, the opportunity cost of earning $45,100/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $204.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,030, position total $-194,553 ($-12,553 vs today)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (34 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.291 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$123,311 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-184,262

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$197.50	2d	11 Sep 2026	$0.71	21/25	$22,365	$22,425	90%	91%	+$11,131	-$319,408	202.8%	$-398,189 (vs do-nothing $-213,927)
$195	2d	11 Sep 2026	$0.95	16/25	$22,800	$22,935	87%	88%	+$10,192	-$246,975	156.8%	$-350,870 (vs do-nothing $-166,608)
$192.50	2d	11 Sep 2026	$1.26	12/25	$22,680	$22,875	83%	85%	+$8,843	-$187,859	119.3%	$-311,846 (vs do-nothing $-127,584)
$197.50	9d	18 Sep 2026	$2.89	23/25	$22,157	$22,187	79%	83%	+$6,986	-$344,814	218.9%	$-413,549 (vs do-nothing $-229,287)
$190	2d	11 Sep 2026	$1.67	9/25	$22,545	$22,785	78%	82%	+$7,499	-$142,775	90.7%	$-281,831 (vs do-nothing $-97,569)
$195	9d	18 Sep 2026	$3.40	20/25	$22,667	$22,742	76%	81%	+$6,721	-$303,818	192.9%	$-387,622 (vs do-nothing $-203,360)
$192.50	9d	18 Sep 2026	$3.90	18/25	$23,400	$23,505	73%	78%	+$6,066	-$277,037	175.9%	$-370,886 (vs do-nothing $-186,624)
$195	16d	25 Sep 2026	$5.30	23/25	$22,856	$22,886	72%	78%	+$5,876	-$345,021	219.1%	$-413,756 (vs do-nothing $-229,494)
$187.50	2d	11 Sep 2026	$2.19	7/25	$22,995	$23,265	72%	78%	+$6,239	-$112,433	71.4%	$-261,535 (vs do-nothing $-77,273)
$195	23d	2 Oct 2026	$7.05	25/25	$22,989	$22,989	70%	77%	+$5,512	-$370,648	235.3%	$-429,337 (vs do-nothing $-245,075)
$192.50	16d	25 Sep 2026	$5.95	20/25	$22,312	$22,388	69%	76%	+$5,223	-$303,718	192.8%	$-387,522 (vs do-nothing $-203,260)
$190	9d	18 Sep 2026	$4.55	15/25	$22,750	$22,900	69%	76%	+$5,329	-$233,639	148.3%	$-342,557 (vs do-nothing $-158,295)
$192.50	23d	2 Oct 2026	$7.70	23/25	$23,100	$23,130	67%	76%	+$5,008	-$345,251	219.2%	$-413,986 (vs do-nothing $-229,724)

Show 21 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$190	16d	25 Sep 2026	$6.65	18/25	$22,444	$22,549	66%	75%	+$4,675	-$276,587	175.6%	$-370,436 (vs do-nothing $-186,174)
$185	2d	11 Sep 2026	$2.86	6/25	$25,740	$26,025	65%	74%	+$5,490	-$97,470	61.9%	$-251,594 (vs do-nothing $-67,332)
$187.50	9d	18 Sep 2026	$5.30	13/25	$22,967	$23,147	65%	74%	+$4,802	-$204,762	130.0%	$-323,726 (vs do-nothing $-139,464)
$190	23d	2 Oct 2026	$8.45	21/25	$23,146	$23,206	65%	74%	+$4,573	-$318,904	202.5%	$-397,685 (vs do-nothing $-213,423)
$187.50	16d	25 Sep 2026	$7.45	16/25	$22,350	$22,485	63%	73%	+$4,143	-$248,575	157.8%	$-352,470 (vs do-nothing $-168,208)
$187.50	23d	2 Oct 2026	$9.30	19/25	$23,048	$23,138	62%	73%	+$4,176	-$291,668	185.2%	$-380,494 (vs do-nothing $-196,232)
$185	9d	18 Sep 2026	$6.15	11/25	$22,550	$22,760	60%	71%	+$4,121	-$175,075	111.2%	$-304,085 (vs do-nothing $-119,823)
$185	16d	25 Sep 2026	$8.35	15/25	$23,484	$23,634	59%	71%	+$3,861	-$235,439	149.5%	$-344,357 (vs do-nothing $-160,095)
$185	23d	2 Oct 2026	$10.20	17/25	$22,617	$22,737	59%	71%	+$3,681	-$263,686	167.4%	$-362,558 (vs do-nothing $-178,296)
$182.50	2d	11 Sep 2026	$3.65	5/25	$27,375	$27,675	57%	69%	+$4,000	-$82,080	52.1%	$-241,227 (vs do-nothing $-56,965)
$182.50	23d	2 Oct 2026	$11.25	16/25	$23,478	$23,613	56%	70%	+$3,527	-$250,495	159.0%	$-354,390 (vs do-nothing $-170,128)
$182.50	9d	18 Sep 2026	$6.90	10/25	$23,000	$23,225	56%	69%	+$2,998	-$160,909	102.2%	$-294,942 (vs do-nothing $-110,680)
$182.50	16d	25 Sep 2026	$9.35	13/25	$22,791	$22,971	55%	69%	+$3,298	-$205,997	130.8%	$-324,961 (vs do-nothing $-140,699)
$180	23d	2 Oct 2026	$12.05	15/25	$23,576	$23,726	52%	68%	+$2,679	-$237,389	150.7%	$-346,307 (vs do-nothing $-162,045)
$180	16d	25 Sep 2026	$10.25	12/25	$23,062	$23,258	52%	67%	+$2,513	-$192,071	121.9%	$-316,058 (vs do-nothing $-131,796)
$180	9d	18 Sep 2026	$8.25	9/25	$24,750	$24,990	51%	67%	+$3,369	-$145,853	92.6%	$-284,909 (vs do-nothing $-100,647)
$177.50	23d	2 Oct 2026	$13.25	13/25	$22,467	$22,647	49%	66%	+$2,281	-$207,427	131.7%	$-326,391 (vs do-nothing $-142,129)
$180	2d	11 Sep 2026	$4.65	4/25	$27,900	$28,215	48%	65%	+$2,508	-$66,264	42.1%	$-230,434 (vs do-nothing $-46,172)
$177.50	16d	25 Sep 2026	$11.70	11/25	$24,131	$24,341	48%	66%	+$2,700	-$177,220	112.5%	$-306,230 (vs do-nothing $-121,968)
$177.50	9d	18 Sep 2026	$9.45	8/25	$25,200	$25,455	45%	65%	+$2,763	-$130,687	83.0%	$-274,766 (vs do-nothing $-90,504)
$177.50	2d	11 Sep 2026	$5.90	3/25	$26,550	$26,880	39%	61%	+$1,260	-$50,073	31.8%	$-219,266 (vs do-nothing $-35,004)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-09 21:47