25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $351.02 (banked floor $341.75) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $43,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-188,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25x $225C 11 Sep 2026 | U10001299 | $0.88 | $2,200 | 2026-09-04 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 8d | 22 × $185 | 78% | $22,275 | $6,737 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $197.50 | 18 Sep | 8d | 15.3% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +10pp | $2,575 | $9,656 | -$12,619 | $381,221 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $197.50 15.3% OTM over spot $171.27 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.09 mid) = $2,575 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,656/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $198.59) 92% EV / mo +$5,069 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 19% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,742/mo median; plan ~$4,584/mo after 68% keep · $55,805 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [4.6-7.6], measured ONLY among the 19% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,729 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $216 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.79/sh now → $6.92 mid-life (likely $5.46–$9.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $201 (overshoots $3.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $197.50 is $154 below CC-SS $351.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.03 collected) or spot ≥ $198.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $201.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,432 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $197.50): -$381,221 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-449,290 ($-260,790 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-195,440 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-253,850, the opportunity cost of earning $9,656/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.01 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,700, position total $-180,264 (+$8,236 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 21 × $190 | 18 Sep | 8d | 10.9% | 85%hist 86% | 32%hist 31% | +10pp | $3,864 | $14,490 | -$7,785 | $334,275 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $190 10.9% OTM over spot $171.27 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.90 mid) = $3,864 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,490/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $191.90) 87% EV / mo +$6,224 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,742/mo median; plan ~$5,945/mo after 68% keep · $74,239 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo [4.5-7.1], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,717 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $211 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.14/sh now → $6.47 mid-life (likely $5.96–$9.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 633 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $194 (overshoots $3.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $161 below CC-SS $351.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.84 collected) or spot ≥ $191.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $201.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,432 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $190): -$334,275 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $300): -$20,379 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-422,723 ($-234,223 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-195,440 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-227,283, the opportunity cost of earning $14,490/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.01 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,557, position total $-192,093 ($-3,593 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $185 | 18 Sep | 8d | 8.0% | 78%hist 83% | 45%hist 39% | +18pp | $5,940 | $22,275 | — | $359,301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $185 8.0% OTM over spot $171.27 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $2.75 mid) = $5,940 credit for the 8d cycle → $22,275/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $187.75) 82% EV / mo +$8,084 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 26% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,907/mo median; plan ~$7,416/mo after 68% keep · $90,056 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.5 mo [4.6-7.4], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,639 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $211 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.73/sh now → $6.17 mid-life (likely $6.38–$9.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 960 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $189 (overshoots $4.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $166 below CC-SS $351.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.68/sh (~25% of the $2.70 collected) or spot ≥ $187.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $201.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,432 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $185): -$359,301 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $300): -$15,285 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-442,654 ($-254,154 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-195,440 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-247,214, the opportunity cost of earning $22,275/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.01 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,882, position total $-202,425 ($-13,925 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 21 × $175 | 18 Sep | 8d | 2.2% | 60%hist 65% | 82%hist 79% | +25pp | $11,655 | $43,706 | +$21,431 | $357,984 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $175 2.2% OTM over spot $171.27 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $5.70 mid) = $11,655 credit for the 8d cycle → $43,706/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $180.70) 72% EV / mo +$9,651 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +25pp 33% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,153/mo median; plan ~$9,624/mo after 68% keep · $114,891 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.4 mo [4.7-7.4], measured ONLY among the 33% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$112 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $211 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.92/sh now → $5.60 mid-life (likely $7.41–$10.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,955 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $179 (overshoots $3.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $176 below CC-SS $351.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.39/sh (~25% of the $5.55 collected) or spot ≥ $180.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $201.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-188,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,432 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $175): -$357,984 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $300): -$20,379 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-446,432 ($-257,932 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-195,440 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-250,992, the opportunity cost of earning $43,706/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.01 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,266, position total $-215,802 ($-27,302 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.268 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$120,432 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-195,440
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.70 | 22/25 | $22,275 | $22,317 | 78% | 82% | +$8,084 | -$359,301 | 228.1% | $-442,654 (vs do-nothing $-247,214) |
| $182.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.20 | 19/25 | $22,800 | $22,884 | 75% | 80% | +$7,159 | -$314,105 | 199.4% | $-412,743 (vs do-nothing $-217,303) |
| $180 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.95 | 15/25 | $22,219 | $22,359 | 70% | 77% | +$6,565 | -$250,603 | 159.1% | $-369,620 (vs do-nothing $-174,180) |
| $182.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.05 | 22/25 | $22,220 | $22,262 | 70% | 77% | +$5,015 | -$359,631 | 228.3% | $-442,984 (vs do-nothing $-247,544) |
| $182.50 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.90 | 24/25 | $22,582 | $22,596 | 68% | 76% | +$5,352 | -$387,884 | 246.3% | $-461,048 (vs do-nothing $-265,608) |
| $180 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.90 | 19/25 | $22,420 | $22,504 | 67% | 75% | +$5,409 | -$313,725 | 199.2% | $-412,363 (vs do-nothing $-216,923) |
| $177.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.50 | 13/25 | $21,938 | $22,106 | 65% | 74% | +$4,925 | -$219,724 | 139.5% | $-348,931 (vs do-nothing $-153,491) |
| $180 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.45 | 22/25 | $22,350 | $22,392 | 65% | 74% | +$4,172 | -$359,851 | 228.5% | $-443,204 (vs do-nothing $-247,764) |
| $177.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.60 | 17/25 | $22,440 | $22,552 | 63% | 73% | +$4,374 | -$283,762 | 180.2% | $-392,589 (vs do-nothing $-197,149) |
| $177.50 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.35 | 20/25 | $22,773 | $22,843 | 62% | 73% | +$4,537 | -$330,337 | 209.7% | $-423,880 (vs do-nothing $-228,440) |
| $175 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.55 | 11/25 | $22,894 | $23,090 | 60% | 72% | +$5,055 | -$187,515 | 119.1% | $-326,912 (vs do-nothing $-131,472) |
| $175 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.65 | 15/25 | $22,950 | $23,090 | 59% | 71% | +$4,159 | -$252,553 | 160.4% | $-371,570 (vs do-nothing $-176,130) |
| $175 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.40 | 17/25 | $21,791 | $21,903 | 58% | 71% | +$3,422 | -$283,252 | 179.8% | $-392,079 (vs do-nothing $-196,639) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.35 | 16/25 | $22,582 | $22,708 | 55% | 70% | +$3,591 | -$269,070 | 170.8% | $-382,992 (vs do-nothing $-187,552) |
| $172.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.45 | 9/25 | $21,769 | $21,993 | 55% | 69% | +$3,869 | -$154,862 | 98.3% | $-304,448 (vs do-nothing $-109,008) |
| $172.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.70 | 13/25 | $22,620 | $22,788 | 55% | 69% | +$3,691 | -$220,764 | 140.2% | $-349,971 (vs do-nothing $-154,531) |
| $170 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.80 | 14/25 | $22,527 | $22,681 | 51% | 68% | +$3,670 | -$236,906 | 150.4% | $-361,018 (vs do-nothing $-165,578) |
| $170 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $10.00 | 11/25 | $22,000 | $22,196 | 51% | 67% | +$3,241 | -$188,120 | 119.4% | $-327,517 (vs do-nothing $-132,077) |
| $170 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.75 | 8/25 | $23,250 | $23,488 | 49% | 67% | +$3,905 | -$138,615 | 88.0% | $-293,296 (vs do-nothing $-97,856) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.