25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $355.43 (banked floor $346.23) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $45,536/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-189,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25x $225C 11 Sep 2026 | U10001299 | $0.88 | $2,200 | 2026-09-04 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 7d | 22 × $195 | 84% | $23,006 | $9,113 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal | 25 × $202.50 | 18 Sep | 7d | 13.3% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 13% | +21pp | $3,650 | $15,643 | -$7,363 | $378,666 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $202.50 13.3% OTM over spot $178.75 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.52 mid) = $3,650 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $204.01) 93% EV / mo +$12,110 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +21pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,099/mo median; plan ~$7,547/mo after 68% keep · $89,161 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [4.5-7.4], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,160 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $229 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.51/sh now → $6.72 mid-life (likely $5.69–$9.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $207 (overshoots $4.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $153 below CC-SS $355.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $204.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $200.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-189,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$124,995 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $202.50): -$378,666 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-442,921 ($-253,671 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-202,621 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-240,300, the opportunity cost of earning $15,643/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.56 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,500, position total $-172,493 (+$16,757 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $202.50 | 18 Sep | 7d | 13.3% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 13% | +21pp | $3,650 | $15,643 | -$7,363 | $378,666 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $202.50 13.3% OTM over spot $178.75 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.52 mid) = $3,650 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $204.01) 93% EV / mo +$12,110 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +21pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,099/mo median; plan ~$7,547/mo after 68% keep · $89,161 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [4.5-7.4], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,160 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $229 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.51/sh now → $6.72 mid-life (likely $5.69–$9.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $207 (overshoots $4.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $153 below CC-SS $355.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $204.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $200.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-189,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$124,995 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $202.50): -$378,666 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-442,921 ($-253,671 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-202,621 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-240,300, the opportunity cost of earning $15,643/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.56 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,500, position total $-172,493 (+$16,757 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $195 | 18 Sep | 7d | 9.1% | 84%hist 86% | 32%hist 31% | +24pp | $5,368 | $23,006 | — | $347,570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $195 9.1% OTM over spot $178.75 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $2.54 mid) = $5,368 credit for the 7d cycle → $23,006/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $195) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $197.53) 87% EV / mo +$14,150 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +24pp 30% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,845/mo median; plan ~$9,414/mo after 68% keep · $114,222 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.6 mo [4.9-7.7], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,481 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $221 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.90/sh now → $6.29 mid-life (likely $6.02–$10.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 760 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $199 (overshoots $4.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $195 is $160 below CC-SS $355.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.61/sh (~25% of the $2.44 collected) or spot ≥ $197.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $200.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-189,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$124,995 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $195): -$347,570 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $300): -$16,604 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-428,429 ($-239,179 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-202,621 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-225,808, the opportunity cost of earning $23,006/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.56 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,664, position total $-186,633 (+$2,617 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 22 × $185 | 18 Sep | 7d | 3.5% | 66%hist 65% | 71%hist 64% | +33pp | $10,780 | $46,200 | +$23,194 | $364,158 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $185 3.5% OTM over spot $178.75 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $5.00 mid) = $10,780 credit for the 7d cycle → $46,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $190.00) 75% EV / mo +$14,358 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +33pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $16,673/mo median; plan ~$11,338/mo after 68% keep · $132,889 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [4.6-7.1], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 54% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,858 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $214 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.12/sh now → $5.74 mid-life (likely $7.07–$10.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,624 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $189 (overshoots $3.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $170 below CC-SS $355.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.23/sh (~25% of the $4.90 collected) or spot ≥ $190.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $200.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-189,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$124,995 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $185): -$364,158 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $300): -$16,604 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-445,017 ($-255,767 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-202,621 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-242,396, the opportunity cost of earning $46,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $204.56 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,252, position total $-203,221 ($-13,971 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.283 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$124,995 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-202,621
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $195 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.44 | 22/25 | $23,006 | $23,040 | 84% | 87% | +$14,150 | -$347,570 | 220.7% | $-428,429 (vs do-nothing $-225,808) |
| $192.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.90 | 19/25 | $23,614 | $23,683 | 81% | 85% | +$13,116 | -$304,050 | 193.0% | $-401,513 (vs do-nothing $-198,892) |
| $190 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.50 | 16/25 | $24,000 | $24,103 | 76% | 82% | +$12,059 | -$259,082 | 164.5% | $-373,149 (vs do-nothing $-170,528) |
| $192.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.45 | 24/25 | $22,886 | $22,897 | 73% | 79% | +$6,433 | -$380,343 | 241.5% | $-450,133 (vs do-nothing $-247,512) |
| $187.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.20 | 13/25 | $23,400 | $23,537 | 72% | 79% | +$10,507 | -$212,844 | 135.1% | $-343,515 (vs do-nothing $-140,894) |
| $190 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.05 | 22/25 | $23,807 | $23,841 | 70% | 77% | +$5,936 | -$352,828 | 224.0% | $-433,687 (vs do-nothing $-231,066) |
| $190 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.90 | 24/25 | $23,657 | $23,669 | 68% | 76% | +$5,699 | -$380,463 | 241.6% | $-450,253 (vs do-nothing $-247,632) |
| $187.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.10 | 18/25 | $23,529 | $23,609 | 67% | 75% | +$6,245 | -$291,287 | 184.9% | $-394,285 (vs do-nothing $-191,664) |
| $185 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.90 | 11/25 | $23,100 | $23,260 | 66% | 75% | +$7,179 | -$182,079 | 115.6% | $-323,819 (vs do-nothing $-121,198) |
| $187.50 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.65 | 21/25 | $22,950 | $22,996 | 65% | 74% | +$4,971 | -$336,580 | 213.7% | $-422,974 (vs do-nothing $-220,353) |
| $187.50 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.50 | 23/25 | $23,411 | $23,434 | 64% | 74% | +$5,352 | -$364,381 | 231.4% | $-439,705 (vs do-nothing $-237,084) |
| $185 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.15 | 15/25 | $22,982 | $23,096 | 63% | 74% | +$6,012 | -$244,915 | 155.5% | $-364,516 (vs do-nothing $-161,895) |
| $185 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.60 | 19/25 | $23,343 | $23,411 | 62% | 73% | +$4,773 | -$307,470 | 195.2% | $-404,933 (vs do-nothing $-202,312) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.15 | 24/25 | $23,529 | $23,540 | 61% | 72% | +$2,451 | -$387,063 | 245.8% | $-456,853 (vs do-nothing $-254,232) |
| $182.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.75 | 10/25 | $24,643 | $24,814 | 60% | 72% | +$6,752 | -$167,176 | 106.1% | $-314,451 (vs do-nothing $-111,830) |
| $182.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.50 | 15/25 | $24,107 | $24,221 | 59% | 71% | +$4,189 | -$248,140 | 157.5% | $-367,741 (vs do-nothing $-165,120) |
| $182.50 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.60 | 17/25 | $23,314 | $23,406 | 58% | 71% | +$4,395 | -$277,655 | 176.3% | $-386,187 (vs do-nothing $-183,566) |
| $182.50 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $10.10 | 22/25 | $23,807 | $23,841 | 58% | 71% | +$2,231 | -$358,218 | 227.4% | $-439,077 (vs do-nothing $-236,456) |
| $180 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $11.15 | 20/25 | $23,893 | $23,950 | 55% | 69% | +$2,030 | -$328,553 | 208.6% | $-420,481 (vs do-nothing $-217,860) |
| $180 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.50 | 16/25 | $24,000 | $24,103 | 55% | 69% | +$3,784 | -$263,882 | 167.5% | $-377,949 (vs do-nothing $-175,328) |
| $180 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.85 | 8/25 | $23,486 | $23,680 | 55% | 70% | +$5,672 | -$134,861 | 85.6% | $-293,205 (vs do-nothing $-90,584) |
| $180 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.50 | 13/25 | $23,679 | $23,816 | 55% | 69% | +$3,509 | -$217,004 | 137.8% | $-347,675 (vs do-nothing $-145,054) |
| $177.50 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $13.10 | 17/25 | $23,861 | $23,952 | 52% | 68% | +$2,720 | -$280,205 | 177.9% | $-388,737 (vs do-nothing $-186,116) |
| $177.50 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $12.00 | 14/25 | $24,000 | $24,126 | 51% | 68% | +$3,984 | -$232,297 | 147.5% | $-357,433 (vs do-nothing $-154,812) |
| $177.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.75 | 11/25 | $22,982 | $23,142 | 50% | 67% | +$3,143 | -$184,994 | 117.5% | $-326,734 (vs do-nothing $-124,113) |
| $177.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $8.05 | 7/25 | $24,150 | $24,356 | 49% | 67% | +$5,265 | -$118,913 | 75.5% | $-282,792 (vs do-nothing $-80,171) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.