FORTRESS FIGHT: COIN-LC500 @ $185.32

BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $353.23 | 25 contracts (2,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

COIN-LC500BBC @ $185.32 UNDERWATER $377.68 (67.1% below BE SS)

25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $353.23 (banked floor $342.37) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $500 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $79.745/sh)

SP: $330 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $100.135/sh)

HP: $300 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $83.388/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$232,500	(ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500
Normal income ref	$67,705/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-180,938	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$33,852/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$67,705/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.3 mo to earn back $157,500

ML VELOCITY
3.4 mo to earn back $232,500

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $353.23 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $300C (11d, $68/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$15,088

Hole (after banked)

$165,849

was $180,938 · 8% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$353.23 → $342.37

? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 73 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 56 · %B 66 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $203.37 (+10%) · daily UBB $199.69 · 1-wk expected move ±$19 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 23 contracts at $205 / 4d. This is the safest strike (survival 86%, breach 14%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($33,852/mo); it brings $34,328/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 23 × $195/4d for $69,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 28% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 25 × $212.50/4d (92% survival, $21,188/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $336,349 (214% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $563, recoverable in 5.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 23 contracts realizes $-166,600 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 18 Sep 2026 (4d) · sell 23 × $205, 86% survival, $34,328/mo (E[net] $22,287/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	18 Sep 2026 · 4d	23 × $205	86%	$34,328	$22,287
NEXT FRIDAY	25 Sep 2026 · 11d	25 × $200	74%	$34,091	$2,450

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $4,577 with probability 84%; on the 16% touch you roll, paying $15,203 to close and taking $9,726 back from the best priced door (net cash $5,477) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 18 Sep 2026 · 4d · E[net] $22,287/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 23 × $205 (50% normal), 86% survival, breach 14%, $34,328/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $210 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 90% (breach 14% → 10%) for $11,558/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

COIN spot $185.32 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

25 × $212.50

18 Sep

14.7%

92%hist 96%

17%hist 14%

+19pp

$2,825

$21,188

-$13,140

$348,997

Sell 25 × $212.50 14.7% OTM over spot $185.32 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.20 mid)

= $2,825 credit for the 4d cycle → $21,188/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $212.50)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $213.70)

92%

EV / mo

+$12,959

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+19pp

39% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$13,747/mo

median; plan ~$9,348/mo after 68% keep · $98,879 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [2.7-6.5], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$14,676

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$247 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.90/sh now → $7.00 mid-life (likely $6.07–$11.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 252 simulated challenges: the $212 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $218 (overshoots $5.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$212	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$4.52/sh	+$11,300 cycle +$14,125 [+$10,821…+$14,721] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$146,564 NOT cap gain +$34,374
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$237	9 Oct 2026	23d left	+$1.38/sh	+$3,447 cycle +$6,272 [-$489…+$6,786] · 73% credit	79% surv 74%	-$136,029 NOT cap gain +$44,908
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$222	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$0.28/sh	+$702 cycle +$3,527 [-$2,483…+$3,443] · 58% credit	74% surv 66%	-$149,950 NOT cap gain +$30,988
Max even-money escape in the band	~$242	9 Oct 2026	23d left	+$0.13/sh	+$336 cycle +$3,161 [-$4,218…+$3,436] · 49% credit	81% surv 77%	-$135,416 NOT cap gain +$45,521
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$247	9 Oct 2026	23d left	-$0.83/sh	-$2,066 cycle +$759 [-$7,335…+$936] · 33% credit	83% surv 80%	-$134,093 NOT cap gain +$46,845
budget: banked $2,825 debit $2,066 (73% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$759 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $20,133/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$21,188/mo
vs 50% target ($33,852/mo)	-37%
vs normal income ($67,705/mo)	31% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$21,188/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $212.50 is $141 below CC-SS $353.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$348,997
… as % of IC ($157,500)	221.6%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	150.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.2 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-181,112

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.13 collected) or spot ≥ $213.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $210.38	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $210-213.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $213.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$212.50 (1.9σ)	$2,825	$-157,863	+$23,074	+$2,800
+2.5%	$217.81 (2.3σ)	$-10,456	$-167,187	+$13,751	-$10,481
+5%	$223.12 (2.6σ)	$-23,738	$-176,510	+$4,427	-$23,762
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (26.5σ)	$-873,425	$-772,991	-$592,053	-$215,950

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-180,938

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,092

− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $212.50): -$348,997

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-404,842 ($-223,905 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-215,950, the opportunity cost of earning $21,188/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $203.37 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-167,490 (+$13,447 vs today)

▸

33% normal

22 × $210

18 Sep

13.3%

90%hist 86%

21%hist 26%

+22pp

$3,036

$22,770

-$11,558

$312,067

Sell 22 × $210 13.3% OTM over spot $185.32 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.44 mid)

= $3,036 credit for the 4d cycle → $22,770/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $210)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $211.44)

91%

EV / mo

+$13,421

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+22pp

44% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$14,206/mo

median; plan ~$9,660/mo after 68% keep · $99,802 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [2.8-6.3], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$12,076

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$245 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.71/sh now → $6.87 mid-life (likely $5.85–$10.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 284 simulated challenges: the $210 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $215 (overshoots $5.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (22 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$210	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$4.42/sh	+$9,728 cycle +$12,764 [+$9,341…+$12,732] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$149,784 NOT cap gain +$31,153
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$235	9 Oct 2026	23d left	+$1.21/sh	+$2,659 cycle +$5,695 [-$733…+$5,948] · 69% credit	79% surv 74%	-$138,466 NOT cap gain +$42,471
Max even-money escape in the band	~$237	9 Oct 2026	23d left	+$0.50/sh	+$1,104 cycle +$4,140 [-$2,534…+$4,283] · 55% credit	80% surv 76%	-$138,159 NOT cap gain +$42,778
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$220	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$0.20/sh	+$438 cycle +$3,474 [-$2,215…+$3,080] · 50% credit	74% surv 66%	-$151,862 NOT cap gain +$29,075
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$245	9 Oct 2026	23d left	-$0.96/sh	-$2,114 cycle +$922 [-$6,548…+$888] · 33% credit	83% surv 80%	-$135,789 NOT cap gain +$45,149
budget: banked $3,036 debit $2,114 (70% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$922 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $16,955/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$22,770/mo
vs 50% target ($33,852/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($67,705/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$22,778/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $210 is $143 below CC-SS $353.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$312,067
… as % of IC ($157,500)	198.1%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	134.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.6 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)	$-159,346

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.38 collected) or spot ≥ $211.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $210)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $207.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $208-211.44	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $211.44	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$210.00 (1.7σ)	$3,036	$-159,512	+$21,426	+$3,014
+2.5%	$215.25 (2.1σ)	$-8,514	$-167,151	+$13,787	-$8,536
+5%	$220.50 (2.5σ)	$-20,064	$-174,789	+$6,148	-$20,086
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (26.5σ)	$-773,564	$-752,027	-$571,089	-$194,986

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-180,938

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,092

− CC assignment net of premium (22 × $210): -$312,067

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $300): -$15,966

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-383,878 ($-202,941 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-194,986, the opportunity cost of earning $22,770/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $203.37 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-167,487 (+$13,450 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

23 × $205

18 Sep

10.6%

86%hist 86%

30%hist 26%

+29pp

$4,577

$34,328

—

$336,349

Sell 23 × $205 10.6% OTM over spot $185.32 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $2.05 mid)

= $4,577 credit for the 4d cycle → $34,328/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $205)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $207.05)

88%

EV / mo

+$18,056

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+29pp

54% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$19,592/mo

median; plan ~$13,322/mo after 68% keep · $124,526 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.6-5.9], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$10,626

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$240 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.35/sh now → $6.61 mid-life (likely $6.16–$10.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 479 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $210 (overshoots $5.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (23 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$205	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$4.23/sh	+$9,726 cycle +$14,303 [+$8,721…+$12,685] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$151,971 NOT cap gain +$28,966
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$225	9 Oct 2026	23d left	+$2.13/sh	+$4,894 cycle +$9,471 [+$1,336…+$7,609] · 81% credit	78% surv 71%	-$142,141 NOT cap gain +$38,796
Max even-money escape in the band	~$232	9 Oct 2026	23d left	+$0.20/sh	+$453 cycle +$5,030 [-$3,891…+$2,807] · 43% credit	81% surv 77%	-$140,994 NOT cap gain +$39,943
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$215	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$0.04/sh	+$92 cycle +$4,669 [-$3,020…+$2,141] · 41% credit	75% surv 67%	-$154,394 NOT cap gain +$26,544
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$240	9 Oct 2026	23d left	-$1.22/sh	-$2,798 cycle +$1,779 [-$7,933…-$721] · 19% credit	84% surv 81%	-$138,659 NOT cap gain +$42,279
budget: banked $4,577 debit $2,798 (61% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,779 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $16,180/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$34,328/mo
vs 50% target ($33,852/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($67,705/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$34,333/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $205 is $148 below CC-SS $353.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$336,349
… as % of IC ($157,500)	213.6%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	144.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.0 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-166,600

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $1.99 collected) or spot ≥ $207.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $202.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $203-207.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $207.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$205.00 (1.4σ)	$4,577	$-161,697	+$19,241	+$4,554
+2.5%	$210.12 (1.7σ)	$-7,210	$-169,666	+$11,271	-$7,233
+5%	$215.25 (2.1σ)	$-18,998	$-177,636	+$3,302	-$19,021
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (26.5σ)	$-818,823	$-770,987	-$590,049	-$213,946

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-180,938

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,092

− CC assignment net of premium (23 × $205): -$336,349

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $300): -$10,644

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-402,838 ($-221,901 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-213,946, the opportunity cost of earning $34,328/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $203.37 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-167,488 (+$13,449 vs today)

▸

100% normal

23 × $195

18 Sep

5.2%

72%hist 84%

58%hist 44%

+51pp

$9,200

$69,000

+$34,672

$354,726

Sell 23 × $195 5.2% OTM over spot $185.32 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $4.12 mid)

= $9,200 credit for the 4d cycle → $69,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $195)

72%

Breach risk

28%

POP (stays ≤ $199.12)

79%

EV / mo

+$25,529

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+51pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~6.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$27,539/mo

median; plan ~$18,726/mo after 68% keep · $155,824 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.7-5.6], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

40%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,843

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$245 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $8.63/sh now → $6.11 mid-life (likely $7.21–$11.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,200 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $200 (overshoots $5.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (23 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$195	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$3.86/sh	+$8,867 cycle +$18,067 [+$6,499…+$9,623] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$155,657 NOT cap gain +$25,281
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$210	9 Oct 2026	23d left	+$2.83/sh	+$6,514 cycle +$15,714 [+$1,395…+$6,298] · 83% credit	76% surv 68%	-$147,073 NOT cap gain +$33,865
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$202	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$0.64/sh	+$1,468 cycle +$10,668 [-$2,807…+$1,160] · 37% credit	73% surv 64%	-$157,707 NOT cap gain +$23,231
Max even-money escape in the band	~$220	9 Oct 2026	23d left	+$0.26/sh	+$602 cycle +$9,802 [-$6,046…-$91] · 24% credit	81% surv 76%	-$145,535 NOT cap gain +$35,403
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$245	9 Oct 2026	23d left	-$3.45/sh	-$7,927 cycle +$1,273 [-$17,556…-$9,533]	90% surv 89%	-$135,440 NOT cap gain +$45,498
budget: banked $9,200 debit $7,927 (86% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,273 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $7,977/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$69,000/mo
vs 50% target ($33,852/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($67,705/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$69,005/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $195 is $158 below CC-SS $353.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$354,726
… as % of IC ($157,500)	225.2%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	152.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.2 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-166,750

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $199.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $193.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $193-199.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $199.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$195.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$9,200	$-164,524	+$16,414	+$9,177
+2.5%	$199.87 (1.0σ)	$-2,012	$-172,105	+$8,833	-$2,035
+5%	$204.75 (1.4σ)	$-13,225	$-179,685	+$1,252	-$13,248
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (26.5σ)	$-837,200	$-789,364	-$608,426	-$232,323

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-180,938

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,092

− CC assignment net of premium (23 × $195): -$354,726

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $300): -$10,644

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-421,215 ($-240,278 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-232,323, the opportunity cost of earning $69,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $203.37 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,051, position total $-177,539 (+$3,398 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COIN are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 25 Sep 2026 · 11d · E[net] $2,450/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 25 × $200 (50% normal), 74% survival, breach 26%, $34,091/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $207.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 26% → 18%) for $10,909/mo less (32% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $207.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect COIN to stay flat-to-down near term.

COIN spot $185.32 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

25 × $222.50

25 Sep

11d

20.1%

91%hist 96%

18%hist 14%

+9pp

$3,750

$10,227

-$23,864

$323,072

Sell 25 × $222.50 20.1% OTM over spot $185.32 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.64 mid)

= $3,750 credit for the 11d cycle → $10,227/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $222.50)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $224.13)

92%

EV / mo

+$5,310

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

25% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,704/mo

median; plan ~$4,559/mo after 68% keep · $52,137 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [2.9-6.2], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$22,456

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$242 @ 77% POP

70% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $14.82/sh now → $10.48 mid-life (likely $7.84–$13.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 332 simulated challenges: the $222 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $227 (overshoots $4.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$222	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$3.48/sh	+$8,699 cycle +$12,449 [+$8,623…+$13,777] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$140,789 NOT cap gain +$40,148
Max even-money escape in the band	~$237	9 Oct 2026	20d left	+$0.58/sh	+$1,447 cycle +$5,197 [-$500…+$7,476] · 71% credit	75% surv 67%	-$137,105 NOT cap gain +$43,832
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$230	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.37/sh	+$913 cycle +$4,663 [-$500…+$5,656] · 70% credit	72% surv 61%	-$143,226 NOT cap gain +$37,711
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$242	9 Oct 2026	20d left	-$0.90/sh	-$2,241 cycle +$1,509 [-$4,762…+$3,413] · 41% credit	77% surv 70%	-$137,068 NOT cap gain +$43,869
budget: banked $3,750 debit $2,241 (60% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,509 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $35,948/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,227/mo
vs 50% target ($33,852/mo)	-70%
vs normal income ($67,705/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,227/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $222.50 is $131 below CC-SS $353.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$323,072
… as % of IC ($157,500)	205.1%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	139.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.8 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-181,275

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.50 collected) or spot ≥ $224.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $222)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $220.28	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $220-224.13	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $224.13	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$222.50 (1.6σ)	$3,750	$-149,488	+$31,449	+$3,725
+2.5%	$228.06 (1.8σ)	$-10,156	$-159,251	+$21,687	-$10,181
+5%	$233.62 (2.0σ)	$-24,062	$-169,013	+$11,925	-$24,088
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (16.0σ)	$-847,500	$-747,066	-$566,128	-$190,025

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-180,938

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,092

− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $222.50): -$323,072

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-378,917 ($-197,980 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-190,025, the opportunity cost of earning $10,227/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $203.37 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-167,490 (+$13,447 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

25 × $207.50

25 Sep

11d

12.0%

82%hist 86%

38%hist 30%

+18pp

$8,500

$23,182

-$10,909

$355,822

Sell 25 × $207.50 12.0% OTM over spot $185.32 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $3.65 mid)

= $8,500 credit for the 11d cycle → $23,182/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $207.50)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $211.15)

85%

EV / mo

+$9,784

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+18pp

34% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$11,864/mo

median; plan ~$8,067/mo after 68% keep · $92,992 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.6-7.0], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

28%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$14,768

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$235 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $13.16/sh now → $9.31 mid-life (likely $8.95–$13.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 842 simulated challenges: the $208 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $212 (overshoots $4.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$208	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$3.08/sh	+$7,693 cycle +$16,193 [+$5,723…+$10,284] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$148,220 NOT cap gain +$32,717
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$217	9 Oct 2026	20d left	+$1.64/sh	+$4,103 cycle +$12,603 [+$495…+$6,652] · 81% credit	73% surv 63%	-$144,599 NOT cap gain +$36,339
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$212	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$1.05/sh	+$2,624 cycle +$11,124 [-$1…+$4,634] · 75% credit	71% surv 59%	-$149,803 NOT cap gain +$31,134
Max even-money escape in the band	~$220	9 Oct 2026	20d left	+$0.77/sh	+$1,917 cycle +$10,417 [-$1,973…+$4,130] · 54% credit	74% surv 66%	-$144,922 NOT cap gain +$36,015
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$235	9 Oct 2026	20d left	-$3.33/sh	-$8,319 cycle +$181 [-$14,067…-$6,920] · 4% credit	81% surv 77%	-$143,984 NOT cap gain +$36,954
budget: banked $8,500 debit $8,319 (98% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$181 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $22,423/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$23,182/mo
vs 50% target ($33,852/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($67,705/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$23,182/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $207.50 is $146 below CC-SS $353.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$355,822
… as % of IC ($157,500)	225.9%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	153.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.3 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-181,562

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $211.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $208)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $205.43	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $205-211.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $211.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$207.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,500	$-155,913	+$25,024	+$8,475
+2.5%	$212.69 (1.2σ)	$-4,469	$-165,017	+$15,920	-$4,494
+5%	$217.88 (1.4σ)	$-17,438	$-174,122	+$6,816	-$17,462
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (16.0σ)	$-880,250	$-779,816	-$598,878	-$222,775

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-180,938

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,092

− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $207.50): -$355,822

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-411,667 ($-230,730 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-222,775, the opportunity cost of earning $23,182/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $203.37 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-167,490 (+$13,447 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

25 × $200

25 Sep

11d

7.9%

74%hist 84%

54%hist 44%

+26pp

$12,500

$34,091

—

$370,572

Sell 25 × $200 7.9% OTM over spot $185.32 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $5.17 mid)

= $12,500 credit for the 11d cycle → $34,091/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $200)

74%

Breach risk

26%

POP (stays ≤ $205.18)

80%

EV / mo

+$11,997

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+26pp

40% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$14,126/mo

median; plan ~$9,606/mo after 68% keep · $113,236 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [3.9-7.2], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

43%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$9,362

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$235 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $12.36/sh now → $8.74 mid-life (likely $9.86–$14.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,282 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $205 (overshoots $4.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$200	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$2.89/sh	+$7,213 cycle +$19,713 [+$4,736…+$8,049] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$150,288 NOT cap gain +$30,649
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$207	9 Oct 2026	20d left	+$2.23/sh	+$5,573 cycle +$18,073 [+$1,707…+$5,973] · 92% credit	72% surv 61%	-$146,579 NOT cap gain +$34,358
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$205	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.86/sh	+$2,144 cycle +$14,644 [-$917…+$2,198] · 54% credit	71% surv 59%	-$151,870 NOT cap gain +$29,067
Max even-money escape in the band	~$212	9 Oct 2026	20d left	+$0.45/sh	+$1,127 cycle +$13,627 [-$3,507…+$899] · 31% credit	75% surv 66%	-$147,299 NOT cap gain +$33,638
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$235	9 Oct 2026	20d left	-$4.76/sh	-$11,911 cycle +$589 [-$19,865…-$13,478]	85% surv 83%	-$143,575 NOT cap gain +$37,363
budget: banked $12,500 debit $11,911 (95% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$589 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $14,927/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$34,091/mo
vs 50% target ($33,852/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($67,705/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$34,091/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $200 is $153 below CC-SS $353.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$370,572
… as % of IC ($157,500)	235.3%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	159.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.5 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-181,375

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.25/sh (~25% of the $5.00 collected) or spot ≥ $205.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $198.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $198-205.18	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $205.18	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$200.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$12,500	$-157,501	+$23,437	+$12,475
+2.5%	$205.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$0	$-166,276	+$14,662	-$25
+5%	$210.00 (1.0σ)	$-12,500	$-175,051	+$5,887	-$12,525
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (16.0σ)	$-895,000	$-794,566	-$613,628	-$237,525

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-180,938

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,092

− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $200): -$370,572

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-426,417 ($-245,480 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-237,525, the opportunity cost of earning $34,091/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $203.37 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-167,490 (+$13,447 vs today)

▸

100% normal

25 × $185

25 Sep

11d

-0.2%

52%hist 70%

100%hist 90%

$25,625

$69,886

+$35,795

$394,947

Sell 25 × $185 0.2% ITM over spot $185.32 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $10.65 mid)

= $25,625 credit for the 11d cycle → $69,886/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $185)

52%

Breach risk

48%

POP (stays ≤ $195.65)

69%

EV / mo

+$13,607

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$6,448

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$230 @ 91% POP

91% survival

Buyback gross: $10.84/sh now → $7.67 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$185	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$2.52/sh	+$6,297 cycle +$31,922	68% surv 53%	-$149,015 NOT cap gain +$31,922
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$190	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.36/sh	+$909 cycle +$26,534	72% surv 61%	-$150,917 NOT cap gain +$30,020
Max even-money escape in the band	~$195	9 Oct 2026	20d left	+$0.58/sh	+$1,447 cycle +$27,072	74% surv 65%	-$146,654 NOT cap gain +$34,284
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$230	9 Oct 2026	20d left	-$5.85/sh	-$14,618 cycle +$11,007	91% surv 91%	-$136,644 NOT cap gain +$44,293
budget: banked $25,625 debit $14,618 (57% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11,007 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $6,838/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$69,886/mo
vs 50% target ($33,852/mo)	+106%
vs normal income ($67,705/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$69,886/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $185 is $168 below CC-SS $353.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$394,947
… as % of IC ($157,500)	250.8%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	169.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.8 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-181,938

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.56/sh (~25% of the $10.25 collected) or spot ≥ $195.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $199.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $183.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $183-195.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $195.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.30 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$185.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$25,625	$-155,312	+$25,625	+$25,600
+2.5%	$189.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$14,063	$-163,668	+$17,270	+$14,038
+5%	$194.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,500	$-171,785	+$9,153	+$2,475
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (16.0σ)	$-919,375	$-818,941	-$638,003	-$261,900

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-180,938

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,092

− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $185): -$394,947

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-450,792 ($-269,855 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-261,900, the opportunity cost of earning $69,886/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $203.37 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,300, position total $-187,790 ($-6,853 vs today)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (28 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.298 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$125,092 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-188,892

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$205	4d	18 Sep 2026	$1.99	23/25	$34,328	$34,333	86%	88%	+$18,056	-$336,349	213.6%	$-402,838 (vs do-nothing $-213,946)
$202.50	4d	18 Sep 2026	$2.38	19/25	$33,915	$33,931	83%	86%	+$16,615	-$281,862	179.0%	$-369,639 (vs do-nothing $-180,747)
$200	4d	18 Sep 2026	$2.81	17/25	$35,828	$35,849	80%	84%	+$15,970	-$255,712	162.4%	$-354,132 (vs do-nothing $-165,240)
$197.50	4d	18 Sep 2026	$3.30	14/25	$34,650	$34,680	76%	81%	+$13,775	-$213,400	135.5%	$-327,786 (vs do-nothing $-138,894)
$200	11d	25 Sep 2026	$5.00	25/25	$34,091	$34,091	74%	80%	+$11,997	-$370,572	235.3%	$-426,417 (vs do-nothing $-237,525)
$195	4d	18 Sep 2026	$4.00	12/25	$36,000	$36,035	72%	79%	+$13,320	-$185,074	117.5%	$-310,104 (vs do-nothing $-121,212)
$197.50	11d	25 Sep 2026	$5.55	23/25	$34,814	$34,819	71%	78%	+$10,874	-$345,411	219.3%	$-411,900 (vs do-nothing $-223,008)
$195	11d	25 Sep 2026	$6.00	21/25	$34,364	$34,375	67%	76%	+$8,683	-$319,680	203.0%	$-396,813 (vs do-nothing $-207,921)
$192.50	4d	18 Sep 2026	$4.70	10/25	$35,250	$35,291	67%	76%	+$11,499	-$156,029	99.1%	$-291,702 (vs do-nothing $-102,810)
$195	18d	2 Oct 2026	$8.35	25/25	$34,792	$34,792	65%	75%	+$8,394	-$374,697	237.9%	$-430,542 (vs do-nothing $-241,650)
$192.50	11d	25 Sep 2026	$6.90	18/25	$33,873	$33,892	64%	74%	+$8,086	-$276,892	175.8%	$-369,990 (vs do-nothing $-181,098)
$192.50	18d	2 Oct 2026	$9.20	23/25	$35,267	$35,272	62%	73%	+$7,749	-$348,516	221.3%	$-415,005 (vs do-nothing $-226,113)
$190	4d	18 Sep 2026	$5.60	9/25	$37,800	$37,844	62%	74%	+$11,194	-$141,866	90.1%	$-282,861 (vs do-nothing $-93,969)

Show 15 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$190	11d	25 Sep 2026	$8.05	16/25	$35,127	$35,152	60%	72%	+$8,369	-$248,286	157.6%	$-352,028 (vs do-nothing $-163,136)
$190	18d	2 Oct 2026	$10.25	20/25	$34,167	$34,180	59%	72%	+$7,124	-$305,957	194.3%	$-388,412 (vs do-nothing $-199,520)
$190	25d	9 Oct 2026	$11.80	24/25	$33,984	$33,987	59%	72%	+$6,714	-$363,429	230.7%	$-424,596 (vs do-nothing $-235,704)
$187.50	4d	18 Sep 2026	$6.65	7/25	$34,912	$34,962	57%	71%	+$9,399	-$111,355	70.7%	$-262,994 (vs do-nothing $-74,102)
$187.50	25d	9 Oct 2026	$13.00	22/25	$34,320	$34,328	56%	70%	+$6,583	-$336,003	213.3%	$-407,814 (vs do-nothing $-218,922)
$187.50	11d	25 Sep 2026	$9.15	14/25	$34,936	$34,966	56%	70%	+$7,711	-$219,210	139.2%	$-333,596 (vs do-nothing $-144,704)
$187.50	18d	2 Oct 2026	$11.30	18/25	$33,900	$33,919	56%	70%	+$6,471	-$277,972	176.5%	$-371,070 (vs do-nothing $-182,178)
$185	25d	9 Oct 2026	$14.05	21/25	$35,406	$35,417	53%	69%	+$5,784	-$323,775	205.6%	$-400,908 (vs do-nothing $-212,016)
$185	18d	2 Oct 2026	$12.40	17/25	$35,133	$35,155	53%	69%	+$6,026	-$264,909	168.2%	$-363,329 (vs do-nothing $-174,437)
$185	11d	25 Sep 2026	$10.25	13/25	$36,341	$36,374	52%	69%	+$7,076	-$205,372	130.4%	$-325,080 (vs do-nothing $-136,188)
$185	4d	18 Sep 2026	$7.85	6/25	$35,325	$35,377	51%	69%	+$8,603	-$96,227	61.1%	$-253,188 (vs do-nothing $-64,296)
$182.50	25d	9 Oct 2026	$15.35	19/25	$34,998	$35,014	50%	68%	+$5,536	-$295,219	187.4%	$-382,996 (vs do-nothing $-194,104)
$182.50	18d	2 Oct 2026	$13.70	15/25	$34,250	$34,277	49%	67%	+$5,484	-$235,543	149.6%	$-344,607 (vs do-nothing $-155,715)
$182.50	11d	25 Sep 2026	$11.40	11/25	$34,200	$34,238	48%	67%	+$5,674	-$175,262	111.3%	$-305,613 (vs do-nothing $-116,721)
$182.50	4d	18 Sep 2026	$9.15	5/25	$34,312	$34,367	45%	67%	+$7,333	-$80,789	51.3%	$-243,072 (vs do-nothing $-54,180)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-14 21:51