25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $351.31 (banked floor $340.42) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $45,838/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-182,625 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 22 × $200 | 89% | $23,100 | $18,677 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 23 × $195 | 76% | $23,805 | $2,976 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 23 × $205 | 18 Sep | 3d | 13.9% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 14% | +16pp | $1,541 | $15,410 | -$7,690 | $334,970 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $205 13.9% OTM over spot $180.01 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.71 mid) = $1,541 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,410/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $205.71) 93% EV / mo +$8,351 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,863/mo median; plan ~$7,387/mo after 68% keep · $77,206 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [3.0-6.0], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,311 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $237 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.29/sh now → $5.15 mid-life (likely $4.86–$9.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 213 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $211 (overshoots $5.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $146 below CC-SS $351.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $205.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,051 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $205): -$334,970 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $300): -$10,260 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-405,804 ($-223,179 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-216,982, the opportunity cost of earning $15,410/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $202.63 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-166,506 (+$16,119 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $202.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 12.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +21pp | $2,125 | $21,250 | -$1,850 | $369,898 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $202.50 12.5% OTM over spot $180.01 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.91 mid) = $2,125 credit for the 3d cycle → $21,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $203.41) 92% EV / mo +$10,936 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +21pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,535/mo median; plan ~$9,204/mo after 68% keep · $93,785 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.9-6.3], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,511 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $235 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.15/sh now → $5.05 mid-life (likely $4.68–$8.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 265 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $208 (overshoots $5.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $149 below CC-SS $351.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $203.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,051 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $202.50): -$369,898 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-430,472 ($-247,847 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-241,650, the opportunity cost of earning $21,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $202.63 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-166,508 (+$16,117 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $200 | 18 Sep | 3d | 11.1% | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 26% | +20pp | $2,310 | $23,100 | — | $330,570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $200 11.1% OTM over spot $180.01 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $1.08 mid) = $2,310 credit for the 3d cycle → $23,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $201.08) 90% EV / mo +$10,821 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +20pp 43% whole by 9mo vs 23% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,876/mo median; plan ~$10,115/mo after 68% keep · $98,389 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.6-6.0], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,594 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $235 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.01/sh now → $4.96 mid-life (likely $4.73–$8.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 333 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $205 (overshoots $5.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $151 below CC-SS $351.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $201.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,051 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $200): -$330,570 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $300): -$15,390 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-406,534 ($-223,909 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-217,712, the opportunity cost of earning $23,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $202.63 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,476, position total $-169,981 (+$12,644 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $192.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 6.9% | 79%hist 84% | 42%hist 39% | +45pp | $4,728 | $47,280 | +$24,180 | $376,414 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $192.50 6.9% OTM over spot $180.01 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $2.04 mid) = $4,728 credit for the 3d cycle → $47,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $194.54) 83% EV / mo +$14,764 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +45pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $23,834/mo median; plan ~$16,207/mo after 68% keep · $143,595 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [2.9-6.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,474 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $232 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.60/sh now → $4.67 mid-life (likely $5.15–$9.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 777 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $198 (overshoots $5.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $159 below CC-SS $351.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.97 collected) or spot ≥ $194.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,051 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $192.50): -$376,414 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $300): -$5,130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-442,118 ($-259,493 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-253,296, the opportunity cost of earning $47,280/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $202.63 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,584, position total $-186,091 ($-3,466 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $212.50 | 25 Sep | 10d | 18.0% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +10pp | $3,225 | $9,675 | -$14,130 | $343,798 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $212.50 18.0% OTM over spot $180.01 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.40 mid) = $3,225 credit for the 10d cycle → $9,675/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $212.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $213.90) 91% EV / mo +$4,257 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,368/mo median; plan ~$4,330/mo after 68% keep · $52,283 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [3.9-7.8], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,662 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $232 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.81/sh now → $8.35 mid-life (likely $6.01–$10.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 314 simulated challenges: the $212 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $217 (overshoots $4.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $212.50 is $139 below CC-SS $351.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.29 collected) or spot ≥ $213.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,051 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $212.50): -$343,798 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-404,372 ($-221,747 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-215,550, the opportunity cost of earning $9,675/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $202.63 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-166,508 (+$16,117 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 25 × $205 | 25 Sep | 10d | 13.9% | 86%hist 86% | 30%hist 26% | +12pp | $5,125 | $15,375 | -$8,430 | $360,648 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $205 13.9% OTM over spot $180.01 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.14 mid) = $5,125 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $207.14) 87% EV / mo +$6,033 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,949/mo median; plan ~$6,085/mo after 68% keep · $74,450 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.2 mo [4.2-7.8], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,509 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $227 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.10/sh now → $7.85 mid-life (likely $7.10–$11.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 557 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $210 (overshoots $4.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $146 below CC-SS $351.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.05 collected) or spot ≥ $207.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,051 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $205): -$360,648 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-421,222 ($-238,597 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-232,400, the opportunity cost of earning $15,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $202.63 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-166,508 (+$16,117 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 23 × $195 | 25 Sep | 10d | 8.3% | 76%hist 84% | 50%hist 44% | +19pp | $7,935 | $23,805 | — | $351,576 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $195 8.3% OTM over spot $180.01 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $3.73 mid) = $7,935 credit for the 10d cycle → $23,805/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $195) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $198.72) 80% EV / mo +$5,929 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 29% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,831/mo median; plan ~$7,365/mo after 68% keep · $89,169 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo [4.3-7.6], measured ONLY among the 29% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,644 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $225 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.19/sh now → $7.21 mid-life (likely $7.95–$11.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,152 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $199 (overshoots $4.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $195 is $156 below CC-SS $351.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $198.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,051 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $195): -$351,576 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $300): -$10,260 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-422,410 ($-239,785 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-233,588, the opportunity cost of earning $23,805/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $202.63 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,614, position total $-176,120 (+$6,505 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $185 | 25 Sep | 10d | 2.8% | 61%hist 65% | 81%hist 79% | +31pp | $15,625 | $46,875 | +$23,070 | $400,148 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $185 2.8% OTM over spot $180.01 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $6.58 mid) = $15,625 credit for the 10d cycle → $46,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $191.57) 72% EV / mo +$7,522 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +31pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,539/mo median; plan ~$10,566/mo after 68% keep · $120,742 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo [4.3-7.3], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$850 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $225 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.32/sh now → $6.59 mid-life (likely $8.81–$11.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,003 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $189 (overshoots $4.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $166 below CC-SS $351.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.56/sh (~25% of the $6.25 collected) or spot ≥ $191.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $351.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-182,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,051 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $185): -$400,148 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-460,722 ($-278,097 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-188,822 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-271,900, the opportunity cost of earning $46,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $202.63 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,450, position total $-194,958 ($-12,333 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.285 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$122,051 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-188,822
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.05 | 22/25 | $23,100 | $23,109 | 89% | 90% | +$10,821 | -$330,570 | 209.9% | $-406,534 (vs do-nothing $-217,712) |
| $197.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.29 | 18/25 | $23,220 | $23,241 | 86% | 88% | +$9,627 | -$274,534 | 174.3% | $-371,018 (vs do-nothing $-182,196) |
| $195 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.60 | 15/25 | $24,000 | $24,030 | 83% | 85% | +$8,770 | -$232,064 | 147.3% | $-343,937 (vs do-nothing $-155,115) |
| $192.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.97 | 12/25 | $23,640 | $23,679 | 79% | 83% | +$7,382 | -$188,207 | 119.5% | $-315,470 (vs do-nothing $-126,648) |
| $195 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.45 | 23/25 | $23,805 | $23,811 | 76% | 80% | +$5,929 | -$351,576 | 223.2% | $-422,410 (vs do-nothing $-233,588) |
| $190 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.45 | 10/25 | $24,500 | $24,545 | 75% | 80% | +$6,502 | -$158,859 | 100.9% | $-296,382 (vs do-nothing $-107,560) |
| $192.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.00 | 20/25 | $24,000 | $24,015 | 73% | 78% | +$5,380 | -$309,618 | 196.6% | $-395,842 (vs do-nothing $-207,020) |
| $195 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.20 | 25/25 | $22,941 | $22,941 | 72% | 78% | +$4,423 | -$377,773 | 239.9% | $-438,347 (vs do-nothing $-249,525) |
| $187.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 8/25 | $24,000 | $24,051 | 70% | 76% | +$4,980 | -$128,647 | 81.7% | $-276,430 (vs do-nothing $-87,608) |
| $192.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.85 | 23/25 | $23,744 | $23,750 | 69% | 76% | +$3,987 | -$351,806 | 223.4% | $-422,640 (vs do-nothing $-233,818) |
| $190 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.80 | 16/25 | $23,040 | $23,067 | 69% | 76% | +$5,238 | -$250,415 | 159.0% | $-357,158 (vs do-nothing $-168,336) |
| $192.50 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.50 | 25/25 | $23,438 | $23,438 | 68% | 76% | +$4,592 | -$378,273 | 240.2% | $-438,847 (vs do-nothing $-250,025) |
| $190 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.60 | 20/25 | $23,294 | $23,309 | 66% | 74% | +$3,457 | -$309,418 | 196.5% | $-395,642 (vs do-nothing $-206,820) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $187.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 15/25 | $24,300 | $24,330 | 65% | 74% | +$4,413 | -$237,614 | 150.9% | $-349,487 (vs do-nothing $-160,665) |
| $190 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.40 | 22/25 | $23,100 | $23,109 | 65% | 74% | +$4,450 | -$336,400 | 213.6% | $-412,364 (vs do-nothing $-223,542) |
| $185 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.75 | 7/25 | $26,250 | $26,304 | 64% | 73% | +$4,535 | -$113,791 | 72.2% | $-266,704 (vs do-nothing $-77,882) |
| $187.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.40 | 18/25 | $23,506 | $23,527 | 63% | 73% | +$2,982 | -$281,536 | 178.8% | $-378,020 (vs do-nothing $-189,198) |
| $187.50 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.15 | 21/25 | $24,019 | $24,031 | 63% | 73% | +$4,031 | -$324,784 | 206.2% | $-405,878 (vs do-nothing $-217,056) |
| $185 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.25 | 13/25 | $24,375 | $24,411 | 61% | 72% | +$3,912 | -$208,077 | 132.1% | $-330,210 (vs do-nothing $-141,388) |
| $185 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.35 | 16/25 | $23,576 | $23,603 | 60% | 71% | +$2,695 | -$252,735 | 160.5% | $-359,478 (vs do-nothing $-170,656) |
| $185 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $10.10 | 19/25 | $23,988 | $24,006 | 60% | 71% | +$3,720 | -$296,797 | 188.4% | $-388,151 (vs do-nothing $-199,329) |
| $182.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.60 | 5/25 | $23,000 | $23,060 | 58% | 70% | +$3,087 | -$82,105 | 52.1% | $-245,277 (vs do-nothing $-56,455) |
| $182.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.20 | 11/25 | $23,760 | $23,802 | 57% | 69% | +$3,291 | -$177,770 | 112.9% | $-310,163 (vs do-nothing $-121,341) |
| $182.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.15 | 15/25 | $24,221 | $24,251 | 57% | 69% | +$1,914 | -$239,489 | 152.1% | $-351,362 (vs do-nothing $-162,540) |
| $182.50 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $11.15 | 17/25 | $23,694 | $23,718 | 57% | 70% | +$3,411 | -$268,021 | 170.2% | $-369,634 (vs do-nothing $-180,812) |
| $180 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $12.15 | 16/25 | $24,300 | $24,327 | 53% | 68% | +$2,997 | -$254,655 | 161.7% | $-361,398 (vs do-nothing $-172,576) |
| $180 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.40 | 13/25 | $23,859 | $23,895 | 53% | 67% | +$1,928 | -$209,182 | 132.8% | $-331,315 (vs do-nothing $-142,493) |
| $180 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.30 | 10/25 | $24,900 | $24,945 | 52% | 67% | +$3,012 | -$163,009 | 103.5% | $-300,532 (vs do-nothing $-111,710) |
| $180 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.65 | 5/25 | $28,250 | $28,310 | 52% | 66% | +$3,048 | -$82,830 | 52.6% | $-246,002 (vs do-nothing $-57,180) |
| $177.50 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $13.30 | 14/25 | $23,275 | $23,308 | 50% | 67% | +$2,526 | -$224,713 | 142.7% | $-341,716 (vs do-nothing $-152,894) |
| $177.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.50 | 12/25 | $24,353 | $24,392 | 50% | 66% | +$1,491 | -$194,771 | 123.7% | $-322,034 (vs do-nothing $-133,212) |
| $177.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.35 | 9/25 | $25,245 | $25,293 | 48% | 65% | +$2,204 | -$148,013 | 94.0% | $-290,666 (vs do-nothing $-101,844) |
| $177.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.70 | 4/25 | $26,800 | $26,863 | 45% | 63% | +$1,587 | -$66,844 | 42.4% | $-235,146 (vs do-nothing $-46,324) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.