25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $355.12 (banked floor $344.30) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $40,547/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-192,875 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 20 × $185 | 89% | $21,000 | $18,725 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 24 × $185 | 78% | $20,960 | $5,035 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $187.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 9.3% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | +14pp | $931 | $13,965 | -$7,035 | $317,541 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $187.50 9.3% OTM over spot $171.48 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.53 mid) = $931 credit for the 2d cycle → $13,965/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $187.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $188.03) 93% EV / mo +$7,778 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,155/mo median; plan ~$6,905/mo after 68% keep · $80,395 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo [3.4-7.1], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,658 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $224 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.90/sh now → $3.47 mid-life (likely $3.57–$7.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 235 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $192 (overshoots $4.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $187.50 is $168 below CC-SS $355.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $188.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,577 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $187.50): -$317,541 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $265): -$54,040 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-441,878 ($-249,003 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-295,464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-146,414, the opportunity cost of earning $13,965/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,372, position total $-198,932 ($-6,057 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $187.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 9.3% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | +23pp | $1,225 | $18,375 | -$2,625 | $417,816 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $187.50 9.3% OTM over spot $171.48 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.53 mid) = $1,225 credit for the 2d cycle → $18,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $187.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $188.03) 93% EV / mo +$10,235 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +23pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,434/mo median; plan ~$9,135/mo after 68% keep · $99,740 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [4.0-6.8], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,445 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $224 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.90/sh now → $3.47 mid-life (likely $3.59–$6.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 204 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $191 (overshoots $3.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $187.50 is $168 below CC-SS $355.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $188.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,577 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $187.50): -$417,816 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-488,114 ($-295,239 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-295,464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-192,650, the opportunity cost of earning $18,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,700, position total $-207,290 ($-14,415 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $185 | 18 Sep | 2d | 7.9% | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 26% | +23pp | $1,400 | $21,000 | — | $338,833 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $185 7.9% OTM over spot $171.48 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.76 mid) = $1,400 credit for the 2d cycle → $21,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $185.75) 90% EV / mo +$10,164 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +23pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,062/mo median; plan ~$9,562/mo after 68% keep · $105,474 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.9-7.1], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,385 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $221 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.80/sh now → $3.39 mid-life (likely $3.47–$6.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 325 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $189 (overshoots $4.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $170 below CC-SS $355.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $185.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,577 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $185): -$338,833 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $265): -$45,033 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-454,164 ($-261,289 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-295,464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-158,700, the opportunity cost of earning $21,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,340, position total $-204,905 ($-12,030 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $180 | 18 Sep | 2d | 5.0% | 79%hist 84% | 43%hist 39% | +41pp | $2,800 | $42,000 | +$21,000 | $347,433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $180 5.0% OTM over spot $171.48 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $1.45 mid) = $2,800 credit for the 2d cycle → $42,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $181.45) 83% EV / mo +$14,759 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +41pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $22,006/mo median; plan ~$14,964/mo after 68% keep · $149,889 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [3.9-6.9], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,689 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $221 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.24 mid-life (likely $3.81–$7.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 696 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $185 (overshoots $4.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $175 below CC-SS $355.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $181.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,577 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $180): -$347,433 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $265): -$45,033 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-462,764 ($-269,889 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-295,464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-167,300, the opportunity cost of earning $42,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$40,940, position total $-213,505 ($-20,630 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $197.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 15.2% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +7pp | $2,500 | $8,333 | -$12,627 | $391,541 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $197.50 15.2% OTM over spot $171.48 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.07 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $198.57) 91% EV / mo +$3,749 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,677/mo median; plan ~$3,860/mo after 68% keep · $49,136 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.2 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,514 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $216 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.62/sh now → $6.81 mid-life (likely $5.50–$9.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 353 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $202 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $197.50 is $158 below CC-SS $355.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $198.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,577 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $197.50): -$391,541 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-461,839 ($-268,964 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-295,464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-166,375, the opportunity cost of earning $8,333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,425, position total $-181,015 (+$11,860 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 23 × $190 | 25 Sep | 9d | 10.8% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | +8pp | $4,140 | $13,800 | -$7,160 | $375,628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $190 10.8% OTM over spot $171.48 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.86 mid) = $4,140 credit for the 9d cycle → $13,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $191.87) 86% EV / mo +$5,095 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,010/mo median; plan ~$5,446/mo after 68% keep · $67,409 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.0 mo [5.1-6.9], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,475 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $211 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.98/sh now → $6.35 mid-life (likely $5.97–$9.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 726 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $194 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $165 below CC-SS $355.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $191.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,577 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $190): -$375,628 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $265): -$18,013 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-463,939 ($-271,064 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-295,464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-168,475, the opportunity cost of earning $13,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,161, position total $-195,741 ($-2,866 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $185 | 25 Sep | 9d | 7.9% | 78%hist 84% | 46%hist 39% | +15pp | $6,288 | $20,960 | — | $401,992 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $185 7.9% OTM over spot $171.48 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.71 mid) = $6,288 credit for the 9d cycle → $20,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $187.72) 82% EV / mo +$6,253 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,232/mo median; plan ~$6,958/mo after 68% keep · $87,826 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.6 mo [5.2-7.5], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,260 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $209 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.57/sh now → $6.06 mid-life (likely $6.31–$9.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,011 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $189 (overshoots $3.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $170 below CC-SS $355.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.62 collected) or spot ≥ $187.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,577 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $185): -$401,992 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $265): -$9,007 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-481,296 ($-288,421 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-295,464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-185,832, the opportunity cost of earning $20,960/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,200, position total $-206,785 ($-13,910 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $175 | 25 Sep | 9d | 2.1% | 60%hist 70% | 84%hist 79% | +22pp | $12,535 | $41,783 | +$20,823 | $401,733 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $175 2.1% OTM over spot $171.48 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $5.65 mid) = $12,535 credit for the 9d cycle → $41,783/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $180.65) 71% EV / mo +$6,872 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +22pp 27% whole by 9mo vs 5% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,262/mo median; plan ~$9,018/mo after 68% keep · $111,717 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.8 mo [4.9-7.9], measured ONLY among the 27% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$109 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $211 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.77/sh now → $5.50 mid-life (likely $7.37–$10.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,995 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $179 (overshoots $3.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $180 below CC-SS $355.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.36/sh (~25% of the $5.45 collected) or spot ≥ $180.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$122,577 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $175): -$401,733 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $265): -$18,013 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-490,044 ($-297,169 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-295,464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-194,580, the opportunity cost of earning $41,783/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,266, position total $-221,846 ($-28,971 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.267 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$122,577 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-295,464
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.70 | 20/25 | $21,000 | $21,047 | 89% | 90% | +$10,164 | -$338,833 | 215.1% | $-454,164 (vs do-nothing $-158,700) |
| $182.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.97 | 14/25 | $20,370 | $20,473 | 84% | 87% | +$8,084 | -$240,305 | 152.6% | $-409,676 (vs do-nothing $-114,212) |
| $180 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.40 | 10/25 | $21,000 | $21,141 | 79% | 83% | +$7,379 | -$173,717 | 110.3% | $-379,114 (vs do-nothing $-83,650) |
| $185 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.62 | 24/25 | $20,960 | $20,969 | 78% | 82% | +$6,253 | -$401,992 | 255.2% | $-481,296 (vs do-nothing $-185,832) |
| $182.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 20/25 | $21,000 | $21,047 | 74% | 79% | +$5,481 | -$338,933 | 215.2% | $-454,264 (vs do-nothing $-158,800) |
| $185 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.45 | 25/25 | $20,859 | $20,859 | 73% | 79% | +$5,218 | -$414,166 | 263.0% | $-484,464 (vs do-nothing $-189,000) |
| $177.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.87 | 8/25 | $22,440 | $22,599 | 72% | 78% | +$6,003 | -$140,597 | 89.3% | $-364,008 (vs do-nothing $-68,544) |
| $180 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 17/25 | $21,533 | $21,608 | 70% | 76% | +$4,918 | -$291,238 | 184.9% | $-433,589 (vs do-nothing $-138,125) |
| $182.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.15 | 21/25 | $20,278 | $20,316 | 70% | 76% | +$4,155 | -$351,680 | 223.3% | $-458,004 (vs do-nothing $-162,540) |
| $182.50 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.55 | 24/25 | $20,504 | $20,514 | 68% | 75% | +$3,843 | -$398,560 | 253.1% | $-477,864 (vs do-nothing $-182,400) |
| $180 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.00 | 19/25 | $21,375 | $21,431 | 66% | 74% | +$4,319 | -$321,322 | 204.0% | $-445,659 (vs do-nothing $-150,195) |
| $177.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.55 | 14/25 | $21,233 | $21,336 | 65% | 74% | +$4,112 | -$242,293 | 153.8% | $-411,664 (vs do-nothing $-116,200) |
| $180 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.45 | 21/25 | $20,407 | $20,444 | 65% | 74% | +$3,703 | -$352,100 | 223.6% | $-458,424 (vs do-nothing $-162,960) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.70 | 6/25 | $24,300 | $24,478 | 64% | 73% | +$5,810 | -$106,450 | 67.6% | $-347,874 (vs do-nothing $-52,410) |
| $177.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.70 | 17/25 | $21,356 | $21,431 | 62% | 72% | +$3,370 | -$290,558 | 184.5% | $-432,909 (vs do-nothing $-137,445) |
| $177.50 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.35 | 19/25 | $20,693 | $20,750 | 62% | 72% | +$3,423 | -$321,607 | 204.2% | $-445,944 (vs do-nothing $-150,480) |
| $175 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.45 | 12/25 | $21,800 | $21,922 | 60% | 71% | +$3,585 | -$209,600 | 133.1% | $-396,984 (vs do-nothing $-101,520) |
| $175 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.65 | 15/25 | $21,516 | $21,609 | 59% | 70% | +$3,224 | -$258,700 | 164.3% | $-419,064 (vs do-nothing $-123,600) |
| $175 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.35 | 17/25 | $20,733 | $20,808 | 58% | 70% | +$3,127 | -$290,303 | 184.3% | $-432,654 (vs do-nothing $-137,190) |
| $172.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.45 | 4/25 | $20,700 | $20,897 | 55% | 68% | +$2,536 | -$71,667 | 45.5% | $-331,104 (vs do-nothing $-35,640) |
| $172.50 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $10.35 | 16/25 | $21,600 | $21,684 | 55% | 69% | +$2,783 | -$275,627 | 175.0% | $-426,984 (vs do-nothing $-131,520) |
| $172.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.65 | 13/25 | $21,084 | $21,197 | 54% | 68% | +$2,531 | -$226,157 | 143.6% | $-404,534 (vs do-nothing $-109,070) |
| $172.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.45 | 10/25 | $21,500 | $21,641 | 54% | 68% | +$2,832 | -$176,167 | 111.9% | $-381,564 (vs do-nothing $-86,100) |
| $170 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $11.35 | 14/25 | $20,726 | $20,829 | 51% | 67% | +$2,096 | -$243,273 | 154.5% | $-412,644 (vs do-nothing $-117,180) |
| $170 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.80 | 12/25 | $22,050 | $22,172 | 50% | 66% | +$2,204 | -$210,380 | 133.6% | $-397,764 (vs do-nothing $-102,300) |
| $170 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.60 | 9/25 | $22,800 | $22,950 | 49% | 66% | +$2,346 | -$159,765 | 101.4% | $-374,169 (vs do-nothing $-78,705) |
| $170 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.65 | 3/25 | $20,925 | $21,131 | 45% | 64% | +$1,647 | -$54,140 | 34.4% | $-322,584 (vs do-nothing $-27,120) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.