25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $563.00 | CC-SS: $354.47 (banked floor $343.63) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $232,500 | (ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $38,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $13,842/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-194,875 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 8d | 21 × $177.50 | 76% | $19,372 | $6,581 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $190 | 25 Sep | 8d | 14.1% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +7pp | $2,050 | $7,688 | -$11,685 | $409,118 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $190 14.1% OTM over spot $166.53 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.86 mid) = $2,050 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $190.87) 92% EV / mo +$3,590 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 12% whole by 9mo vs 5% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,412/mo median; plan ~$3,680/mo after 68% keep · $47,111 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.7 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,022 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $208 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.96/sh now → $5.63 mid-life (likely $4.19–$7.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 300 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $193 (overshoots $3.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $164 below CC-SS $354.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $190.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $354.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-194,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,689 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $190): -$409,118 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-482,304 ($-287,429 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-296,729 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-185,575, the opportunity cost of earning $7,688/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.65 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,075, position total $-199,210 ($-4,335 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 22 × $182.50 | 25 Sep | 8d | 9.6% | 84%hist 86% | 34%hist 30% | +9pp | $3,432 | $12,870 | -$6,502 | $374,896 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $182.50 9.6% OTM over spot $166.53 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.66 mid) = $3,432 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $184.16) 86% EV / mo +$4,521 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 5% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,526/mo median; plan ~$5,118/mo after 68% keep · $65,044 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.7 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,076 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $203 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.40/sh now → $5.23 mid-life (likely $4.94–$7.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 701 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $186 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $172 below CC-SS $354.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.56 collected) or spot ≥ $184.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $354.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-194,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,689 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $182.50): -$374,896 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $265): -$26,825 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-474,907 ($-280,032 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-296,729 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-178,178, the opportunity cost of earning $12,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.65 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$38,698, position total $-210,818 ($-15,943 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $177.50 | 25 Sep | 8d | 6.6% | 76%hist 84% | 49%hist 39% | +12pp | $5,166 | $19,372 | — | $366,466 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $177.50 6.6% OTM over spot $166.53 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $2.55 mid) = $5,166 credit for the 8d cycle → $19,372/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $180.06) 80% EV / mo +$5,500 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,384/mo median; plan ~$6,381/mo after 68% keep · $81,097 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.1 mo [6.0-8.2], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,278 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $203 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.03/sh now → $4.97 mid-life (likely $5.38–$8.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,047 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $181 (overshoots $3.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $177 below CC-SS $354.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.61/sh (~25% of the $2.46 collected) or spot ≥ $180.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $354.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-194,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,689 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $177.50): -$366,466 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $265): -$35,767 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-475,418 ($-280,543 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-296,729 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-178,689, the opportunity cost of earning $19,372/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.65 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,549, position total $-217,664 ($-22,789 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $170 | 25 Sep | 8d | 2.1% | 61%hist 65% | 81%hist 79% | +18pp | $10,350 | $38,812 | +$19,440 | $413,925 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $170 2.1% OTM over spot $166.53 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $4.67 mid) = $10,350 credit for the 8d cycle → $38,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $174.68) 71% EV / mo +$6,902 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,064/mo median; plan ~$8,884/mo after 68% keep · $113,530 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.2 mo [5.6-8.3], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$229 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $203 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.50/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $6.09–$8.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,977 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $173 (overshoots $3.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $184 below CC-SS $354.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.12/sh (~25% of the $4.50 collected) or spot ≥ $174.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $354.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-194,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,689 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $170): -$413,925 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $265): -$17,883 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-504,994 ($-310,119 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-296,729 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-208,265, the opportunity cost of earning $38,812/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $201.65 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$62,445, position total $-234,570 ($-39,695 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.259 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$121,689 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-296,729
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $177.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.46 | 21/25 | $19,372 | $19,412 | 76% | 80% | +$5,500 | -$366,466 | 232.7% | $-475,418 (vs do-nothing $-178,689) |
| $175 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 17/25 | $19,125 | $19,205 | 72% | 78% | +$5,533 | -$299,995 | 190.5% | $-444,714 (vs do-nothing $-147,985) |
| $177.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.15 | 23/25 | $19,090 | $19,110 | 71% | 78% | +$4,435 | -$397,480 | 252.4% | $-488,549 (vs do-nothing $-191,820) |
| $177.50 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.70 | 25/25 | $19,432 | $19,432 | 69% | 76% | +$4,196 | -$428,168 | 271.9% | $-501,354 (vs do-nothing $-204,625) |
| $175 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.85 | 20/25 | $19,400 | $19,450 | 68% | 75% | +$3,943 | -$349,235 | 221.7% | $-467,129 (vs do-nothing $-170,400) |
| $172.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.65 | 14/25 | $19,162 | $19,272 | 67% | 75% | +$4,283 | -$249,644 | 158.5% | $-421,189 (vs do-nothing $-124,460) |
| $175 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.40 | 22/25 | $19,200 | $19,230 | 66% | 74% | +$3,482 | -$380,748 | 241.7% | $-480,759 (vs do-nothing $-184,030) |
| $172.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.65 | 17/25 | $19,210 | $19,290 | 63% | 73% | +$3,357 | -$299,740 | 190.3% | $-444,459 (vs do-nothing $-147,730) |
| $172.50 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.25 | 20/25 | $19,773 | $19,823 | 62% | 72% | +$3,113 | -$349,435 | 221.9% | $-467,329 (vs do-nothing $-170,600) |
| $170 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.50 | 12/25 | $20,250 | $20,380 | 61% | 71% | +$3,601 | -$215,961 | 137.1% | $-405,389 (vs do-nothing $-108,660) |
| $170 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.60 | 15/25 | $19,800 | $19,900 | 59% | 70% | +$3,025 | -$266,801 | 169.4% | $-429,404 (vs do-nothing $-132,675) |
| $170 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.30 | 17/25 | $19,241 | $19,321 | 58% | 70% | +$2,822 | -$299,485 | 190.1% | $-444,204 (vs do-nothing $-147,475) |
| $167.50 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.15 | 16/25 | $19,964 | $20,054 | 55% | 69% | +$2,144 | -$284,508 | 180.6% | $-438,169 (vs do-nothing $-141,440) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $167.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.50 | 10/25 | $20,625 | $20,775 | 54% | 68% | +$2,835 | -$181,467 | 115.2% | $-388,779 (vs do-nothing $-92,050) |
| $167.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.60 | 13/25 | $19,760 | $19,880 | 54% | 68% | +$2,443 | -$233,178 | 148.0% | $-413,664 (vs do-nothing $-116,935) |
| $165 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $10.35 | 14/25 | $19,759 | $19,869 | 51% | 67% | +$1,879 | -$250,764 | 159.2% | $-422,309 (vs do-nothing $-125,580) |
| $165 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.80 | 11/25 | $19,360 | $19,500 | 50% | 66% | +$2,035 | -$198,734 | 126.2% | $-397,104 (vs do-nothing $-100,375) |
| $165 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.65 | 8/25 | $19,950 | $20,120 | 48% | 65% | +$2,021 | -$146,254 | 92.9% | $-371,449 (vs do-nothing $-74,720) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.