FORTRESS FIGHT: COIN-LC500 @ $158.93

BE SS: $563.00  |  CC-SS: $384.54  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-30 03:13

COIN-LC500BBC @ $158.93   UNDERWATER $404.07 (71.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
COIN reports 2026-10-29 (Thu), TODAY. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $563.00  |  CC-SS: $384.54 (banked floor $357.39)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $500 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $79.745/sh)
SP: $330 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $100.135/sh)
HP: $300 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $83.388/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$232,500(ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500
Normal income ref$44,500/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay โ‰ˆ $16,095/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-212,312fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$22,250/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$44,500/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $157,500
ML VELOCITY
5.2 mo to earn back $232,500
Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $384.54 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $260C (15d, $100/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.
๐Ÿฆ CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-16
$37,009
Hole (after banked)
$175,303
was $212,312 ยท 17% earned back
Cycles closed
101
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$384.54 → $357.39
? 6 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (101) and event log · CLOSED 91 · UNKNOWN 6 · EXPIRED 4 · updated 2026-10-30 03:10
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED25x $175C 30 Oct 2026$1.91$4,7692026-10-272026-10-29$1.02$2,219U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$4762026-10-262026-10-27$1.23$-16U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$5952026-10-262026-10-27$1.21$-10U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$3572026-10-262026-10-27$1.23$-12U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$5952026-10-262026-10-27$1.21$-10U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$1192026-10-262026-10-27$1.21$-2U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$1192026-10-262026-10-27$1.26$-7U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$1192026-10-262026-10-27$1.21$-2U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$5952026-10-262026-10-27$1.21$-10U10001299execution
CLOSED6x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$1,4252026-10-232026-10-26$0.78$957U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$9502026-10-232026-10-26$0.77$642U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$1,1882026-10-232026-10-26$0.76$808U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$7132026-10-232026-10-26$0.77$482U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$2382026-10-232026-10-26$0.77$161U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$1,1882026-10-232026-10-26$0.77$803U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$2382026-10-232026-10-26$0.77$161U10001299execution
CLOSED17x $187.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.45$4,1652026-10-222026-10-23$1.96$833U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $187.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.45$1,2252026-10-222026-10-23$1.98$235U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $187.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.45$7352026-10-222026-10-23$1.97$144U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$7922026-10-212026-10-22$2.29$105U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$2642026-10-212026-10-22$2.29$35U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$1,3202026-10-212026-10-22$2.30$170U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$7922026-10-212026-10-22$2.30$102U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$2642026-10-212026-10-22$2.36$28U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$1,3202026-10-212026-10-22$2.30$170U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$7922026-10-212026-10-22$2.29$105U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$1,0562026-10-212026-10-22$2.29$140U10001299execution
CLOSED17x $195C 30 Oct 2026$2.78$4,7322026-10-202026-10-21$2.25$907U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $195C 30 Oct 2026$2.78$8352026-10-202026-10-21$2.28$151U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $195C 30 Oct 2026$2.78$1,3922026-10-202026-10-21$2.28$252U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$2,6442026-10-162026-10-20$2.43$1,429U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$2,6442026-10-162026-10-20$2.43$1,429U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.37$292U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.43$286U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$1,5862026-10-162026-10-20$2.38$872U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$2,1152026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$1,155U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$1842026-10-162026-10-16$5.02$-318U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$9212026-10-162026-10-16$5.05$-1,604U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$9212026-10-162026-10-16$5.05$-1,604U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$5532026-10-162026-10-16$5.05$-962U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$1842026-10-162026-10-16$5.05$-321U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$1842026-10-162026-10-16$4.95$-311U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$1842026-10-162026-10-16$5.03$-319U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$5532026-10-162026-10-16$5.02$-953U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$9212026-10-162026-10-16$5.02$-1,589U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$6522026-10-152026-10-16$1.20$292U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$1,0872026-10-152026-10-16$1.21$482U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$1,0872026-10-152026-10-16$1.21$482U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$2172026-10-152026-10-16$1.21$96U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$6522026-10-152026-10-16$1.21$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$2172026-10-152026-10-16$1.33$84U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$8692026-10-152026-10-16$1.20$389U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$6522026-10-152026-10-16$1.20$292U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$1,1452026-10-132026-10-15$1.47$410U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$1,1452026-10-132026-10-15$1.49$400U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$1,1452026-10-132026-10-15$1.49$400U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$2292026-10-132026-10-15$1.48$81U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$2292026-10-132026-10-15$1.57$72U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$6872026-10-132026-10-15$1.46$249U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$1,1452026-10-132026-10-15$1.47$410U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $200C 23 Oct 2026$2.48$2482026-10-082026-10-13$2.04$44U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $200C 23 Oct 2026$2.48$9932026-10-082026-10-13$2.03$181U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $200C 23 Oct 2026$2.48$2482026-10-082026-10-13$2.03$45U10001299execution
CLOSED10x $200C 23 Oct 2026$2.48$2,4832026-10-082026-10-13$2.04$443U10001299execution
CLOSED9x $200C 23 Oct 2026$2.48$2,2352026-10-082026-10-13$2.04$399U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$1,2122026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$664U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$3032026-10-062026-10-08$1.45$158U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$1,5142026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$829U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$1,5142026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$829U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$9092026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$498U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$3032026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$166U10001299execution
CLOSED6x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$1,8172026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$995U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$1,8762026-10-022026-10-06$2.34$706U10001299snapshot
CLOSED5x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$1,8762026-10-022026-10-06$2.37$692U10001299snapshot
CLOSED3x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$1,1262026-10-022026-10-06$2.36$418U10001299snapshot
CLOSED1x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$3752026-10-022026-10-06$2.44$131U10001299snapshot
CLOSED5x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$1,8762026-10-022026-10-06$2.37$692U10001299snapshot
CLOSED1x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$3752026-10-022026-10-06$2.35$140U10001299snapshot
CLOSED5x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$1,8762026-10-022026-10-06$2.34$706U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN25x $240C 30 Oct 2026$5.47$13,6732026-09-212026-10-02$5.47$0U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN25x $195C 25 Sep 2026$0.92$2,3082026-09-182026-09-21$0.92$0U10001299snapshot
EXPIRED25x $225C 11 Sep 2026$0.88$2,2002026-09-042026-09-14$0.00$2,200U10001299execution
CLOSED7x $200C 4 Sep 2026$0.91$6352026-09-012026-09-02$0.39$362U10001299snapshot
CLOSED10x $200C 4 Sep 2026$0.91$9072026-09-012026-09-02$0.39$517U10001299snapshot
CLOSED8x $200C 4 Sep 2026$0.91$7252026-09-012026-09-02$0.39$413U10001299snapshot
EXPIRED25x $215C 28 Aug 2026$0.92$2,3082026-08-252026-08-31$0.00$2,308U10001299snapshot
CLOSED15x $165C 21 Aug 2026$0.68$1,0252026-08-182026-08-19$0.35$500U10001299snapshot
CLOSED10x $165C 21 Aug 2026$0.68$6832026-08-182026-08-19$0.35$333U10001299snapshot
EXPIRED20x $157.5C 14 Aug 2026$0.73$1,4612026-08-132026-08-17$0.00$1,461U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN28x $165C 14 Aug 2026$0.88$2,4642026-08-102026-08-13$0.88$0U10001299execution
EXPIRED25x $180C 31 Jul 2026$1.89$4,7292026-07-272026-08-03$0.00$4,729U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN25x $210C 14 Aug 2026$6.23$15,5682026-07-222026-07-27$6.23$0U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN25x $180C 24 Jul 2026$0.52$1,3002026-07-202026-07-22$0.52$0U10001299execution
CLOSED25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026$1.11$2,7662026-07-172026-07-20$0.20$2,266U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN8x $175C 17 Jul 2026$1.26$1,0102026-07-162026-07-17$1.26$0U10001299seed
Event log
2026-10-29 BOT 8x $172.5C 20261030 @ $1.41 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-29 CLOSED 25x $175C 20261030: banked $2,219
2026-10-27 CLOSED 4x $180C 20261030: banked $-16
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $180C: banked $-10 (4 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $180C: banked $-2 (9 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $180C: banked $-7 (10 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $180C: banked $-2 (11 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $180C: banked $-10 (12 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 3x $180C: banked $-12 (17 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $180C: banked $-10 (20 remain)
2026-10-27 SOLD 4x $175C 20261030 @ $1.92 (extends leg to 25)
2026-10-27 SOLD 5x $175C 20261030 @ $1.90 (extends leg to 21)
2026-10-27 SOLD 1x $175C 20261030 @ $1.90 (extends leg to 16)
2026-10-27 SOLD 1x $175C 20261030 @ $1.95 (extends leg to 15)
2026-10-27 SOLD 1x $175C 20261030 @ $1.90 (extends leg to 14)
2026-10-27 SOLD 5x $175C 20261030 @ $1.90 (extends leg to 13)
2026-10-27 SOLD 3x $175C 20261030 @ $1.92 (extends leg to 8)
2026-10-27 SOLD 5x $175C 20261030 @ $1.90 (new leg)
2026-10-26 BOT 1x $195C 20261113 @ $1.62 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 BOT 1x $195C 20261113 @ $1.56 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 BOT 1x $195C 20261113 @ $1.59 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 BOT 2x $195C 20261113 @ $1.56 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 BOT 1x $195C 20261113 @ $1.59 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 BOT 2x $195C 20261113 @ $1.56 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 1x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.22 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 1x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.16 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 1x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.19 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 2x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.16 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 1x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.19 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 2x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.16 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 CLOSED 6x $185C 20261030: banked $957
2026-10-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $185C: banked $161 (6 remain)
2026-10-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $185C: banked $803 (7 remain)
2026-10-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $185C: banked $161 (12 remain)
2026-10-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 3x $185C: banked $482 (13 remain)
2026-10-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $185C: banked $808 (16 remain)
2026-10-26 SOLD 6x $180C 20261030 @ $1.20 (extends leg to 25)
2026-10-26 SOLD 1x $180C 20261030 @ $1.19 (extends leg to 19)
2026-10-26 SOLD 5x $180C 20261030 @ $1.19 (extends leg to 18)
2026-10-26 SOLD 1x $180C 20261030 @ $1.19 (extends leg to 13)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL ยท %B 34 (live) ยท RSI 42 ยท MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) ยท RSI 38 ยท %B 13 ยท hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $198.42 (+25%) ยท daily UBB $190.61 ยท 1-wk expected move ยฑ$17 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
โš  Next earnings 2026-10-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 25 contracts at $175 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($22,250/mo); it brings $26,156/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 25 ร— $165/8d for $52,500/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 25 ร— $470/22d (99+% survival, $34/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $516,883 (328% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $563, recoverable in 11.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 25 contracts realizes $-212,512 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (8d) · sell 25 × $175, 79% survival, $26,156/mo (E[net] $2,993/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡6 Nov 2026 · 8d25 × $17579%$26,156$2,993
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $6,975 with probability 67%; on the 33% touch you roll, paying $17,669 to close and taking $6,001 back from the best priced door (net cash $11,667) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 8d · E[net] $2,993/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

๐ŸŽฏ Engine pick: sell 25 ร— $175 (50% normal), 79% survival, breach 21%, $26,156/mo.
โš–๏ธ Worth a safer step: the $182.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 21% โ†’ 13%) for $11,438/mo less (44% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (โ‰ˆ1ฯƒ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $182.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect COIN to stay flat-to-down near term.
COIN  spot $158.93 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸๐Ÿ›ก safe yield25 × $187.506 Nov8d18.0%91%hist 95%19%hist 13%+6pp$2,625$9,844-$16,312$489,983
Sell 25 ร— $187.50 18.0% OTM over spot $158.93 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $1.10 mid)
= $2,625 credit for the 8d cycle โ†’ $9,844/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $187.50)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays โ‰ค $188.60)
92%
EV / mo
+$4,666
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+6pp
12% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.5/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$6,878/mo
median; plan ~$4,677/mo after 68% keep · $57,796 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.5 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$17,117
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$204 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.16/sh now โ†’ $7.90 mid-life (likely $6.41โ€“$11.46) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.85/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 365 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $192 (overshoots $4.97). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$18813 Nov 202611d left+$2.74/sh+$6,846
cycle +$9,471
[+$6,214โ€ฆ+$11,432] ยท 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$189,842 NOT
cap gain +$22,470
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$19920 Nov 202618d left+$0.91/sh+$2,283
cycle +$4,908
[+$58โ€ฆ+$6,204] ยท 76% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$189,368 NOT
cap gain +$22,944
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$19413 Nov 202611d left+$0.24/sh+$601
cycle +$3,226
[-$1,313โ€ฆ+$3,827] ยท 62% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$193,325 NOT
cap gain +$18,987
Max even-money escape in the band~$20120 Nov 202618d left+$0.15/sh+$375
cycle +$3,000
[-$2,122โ€ฆ+$4,290] ยท 57% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$190,139 NOT
cap gain +$22,174
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$20420 Nov 202618d left-$0.71/sh-$1,776
cycle +$849
[-$4,770โ€ฆ+$2,168] ยท 37% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$191,152 NOT
cap gain +$21,160
budget: banked $2,625 debit $1,776 (68% used โ‰ˆ 0.8 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$849 cash ยท rolled 25 ct earn โ‰ˆ $29,944/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,844/mo
vs 50% target ($22,250/mo)-56%
vs normal income ($44,500/mo)22% covered
Net income (after hedge)$9,844/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $187.50 is $197 below CC-SS $384.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$489,983
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($157,500)311.1%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($232,500)210.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)11.0 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-212,450
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $188.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $190.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $185.62Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$186-188.60		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $188.60		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.18 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$187.50 (1.6ฯƒ)$2,625$-196,688+$15,624+$2,575
+2.5%$192.19 (1.9ฯƒ)$-9,094$-206,274+$6,038-$9,144
+5%$196.88 (2.1ฯƒ)$-20,812$-215,860-$3,548-$20,862
SS (= V-bounce)$563.00 (22.6ฯƒ)$-936,125$-964,586-$752,273-$178,675
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $384.54, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-212,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,654
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (25 ร— $187.50): -$489,983
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-599,641 ($-387,329 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-420,966 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-178,675, the opportunity cost of earning $9,844/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $198.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,675, position total $-219,020 ($-6,707 vs today)
▸33% normal ← lean25 × $182.506 Nov8d14.8%87%hist 86%26%hist 23%+12pp$3,925$14,719-$11,438$501,183
Sell 25 ร— $182.50 14.8% OTM over spot $158.93 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $1.64 mid)
= $3,925 credit for the 8d cycle โ†’ $14,719/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $182.50)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays โ‰ค $184.14)
89%
EV / mo
+$6,186
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+12pp
18% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$9,153/mo
median; plan ~$6,224/mo after 68% keep · $78,438 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.3 mo [5.0-7.3], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
18%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$14,975
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$201 @ 79% POP
74% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.69/sh now โ†’ $7.56 mid-life (likely $6.68โ€“$11.19) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.99/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 550 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $187 (overshoots $4.69). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$18213 Nov 202611d left+$2.60/sh+$6,501
cycle +$10,426
[+$5,344โ€ฆ+$9,580] ยท 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$191,162 NOT
cap gain +$21,151
Max even-money escape in the band~$19420 Nov 202618d left+$0.68/sh+$1,695
cycle +$5,620
[-$946โ€ฆ+$5,023] ยท 66% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$190,932 NOT
cap gain +$21,381
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$18913 Nov 202611d left+$0.11/sh+$275
cycle +$4,200
[-$1,848โ€ฆ+$3,014] ยท 53% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$194,627 NOT
cap gain +$17,686
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$20120 Nov 202618d left-$1.50/sh-$3,761
cycle +$164
[-$7,248โ€ฆ-$870] ยท 19% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$192,975 NOT
cap gain +$19,338
budget: banked $3,925 debit $3,761 (96% used โ‰ˆ 1.1 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$164 cash ยท rolled 25 ct earn โ‰ˆ $25,231/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$14,719/mo
vs 50% target ($22,250/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($44,500/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$14,719/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $182.50 is $202 below CC-SS $384.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$501,183
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($157,500)318.2%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($232,500)215.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)11.3 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-212,487
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.57 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $184.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $190.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $180.68Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$181-184.14		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $184.14		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.18 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$182.50 (1.3ฯƒ)$3,925$-197,663+$14,649+$3,875
+2.5%$187.06 (1.6ฯƒ)$-7,481$-206,993+$5,319-$7,531
+5%$191.62 (1.8ฯƒ)$-18,888$-216,324-$4,011-$18,938
SS (= V-bounce)$563.00 (22.6ฯƒ)$-947,325$-975,786-$763,473-$189,875
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $384.54, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-212,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,654
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (25 ร— $182.50): -$501,183
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-610,841 ($-398,529 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-420,966 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-189,875, the opportunity cost of earning $14,719/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $198.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,875, position total $-230,220 ($-17,907 vs today)
▸๐ŸŽฏ 50% normal25 × $1756 Nov8d10.1%79%hist 83%43%hist 40%+16pp$6,975$26,156—$516,883
Sell 25 ร— $175 10.1% OTM over spot $158.93 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $2.87 mid)
= $6,975 credit for the 8d cycle โ†’ $26,156/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $175)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays โ‰ค $177.87)
83%
EV / mo
+$8,682
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+16pp
22% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$12,480/mo
median; plan ~$8,486/mo after 68% keep · $104,690 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.2 mo [5.2-7.4], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
33%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$10,694
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$196 @ 81% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.99/sh now โ†’ $7.07 mid-life (likely $7.51โ€“$11.43) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.28/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 994 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $180 (overshoots $4.77). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$17513 Nov 202611d left+$2.40/sh+$6,001
cycle +$12,976
[+$3,990โ€ฆ+$7,259] ยท 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$192,024 NOT
cap gain +$20,288
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$17913 Nov 202611d left+$1.03/sh+$2,573
cycle +$9,548
[+$198โ€ฆ+$3,582] ยท 77% credit
70%
surv 58%
-$193,828 NOT
cap gain +$18,485
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$18420 Nov 202618d left+$1.18/sh+$2,947
cycle +$9,922
[-$277โ€ฆ+$4,115] ยท 72% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$191,179 NOT
cap gain +$21,133
Max even-money escape in the band~$18620 Nov 202618d left+$0.34/sh+$853
cycle +$7,828
[-$2,981โ€ฆ+$1,676] ยท 40% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$192,136 NOT
cap gain +$20,177
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$19620 Nov 202618d left-$2.36/sh-$5,891
cycle +$1,084
[-$11,157โ€ฆ-$5,949] ยท 5% credit
81%
surv 77%
-$194,330 NOT
cap gain +$17,983
budget: banked $6,975 debit $5,891 (84% used โ‰ˆ 1.0 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$1,084 cash ยท rolled 25 ct earn โ‰ˆ $19,630/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$26,156/mo
vs 50% target ($22,250/mo)+18%
vs normal income ($44,500/mo)59% covered
Net income (after hedge)$26,156/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $175 is $210 below CC-SS $384.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$516,883
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($157,500)328.2%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($232,500)222.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)11.6 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-212,512
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.70/sh (~25% of the $2.79 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $177.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $190.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $173.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$173-177.87		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $177.87		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.18 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$175.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$6,975$-198,026+$14,287+$6,925
+2.5%$179.37 (1.1ฯƒ)$-3,962$-206,973+$5,340-$4,012
+5%$183.75 (1.4ฯƒ)$-14,900$-215,919-$3,607-$14,950
SS (= V-bounce)$563.00 (22.6ฯƒ)$-963,025$-991,486-$779,173-$205,575
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $384.54, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-212,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,654
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (25 ร— $175): -$516,883
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-626,541 ($-414,229 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-420,966 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-205,575, the opportunity cost of earning $26,156/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $198.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$51,575, position total $-245,920 ($-33,607 vs today)
▸100% normal25 × $1656 Nov8d3.8%64%hist 66%75%hist 68%+37pp$14,000$52,500+$26,344$534,858
Sell 25 ร— $165 3.8% OTM over spot $158.93 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $5.78 mid)
= $14,000 credit for the 8d cycle โ†’ $52,500/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $165)
64%
Breach risk
36%
POP (stays โ‰ค $170.78)
73%
EV / mo
+$11,240
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+37pp
42% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~7.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$18,023/mo
median; plan ~$12,256/mo after 68% keep · $140,870 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.5 mo [5.1-7.7], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
61%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,088
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$201 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.10/sh now โ†’ $6.44 mid-life (likely $8.15โ€“$11.63) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $5.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,821 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $169 (overshoots $4.48). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$16513 Nov 202611d left+$2.15/sh+$5,365
cycle +$19,365
[+$2,640โ€ฆ+$5,000] ยท 99% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$190,185 NOT
cap gain +$22,127
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$17120 Nov 202618d left+$1.76/sh+$4,399
cycle +$18,399
[+$609โ€ฆ+$3,361] ยท 85% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$188,390 NOT
cap gain +$23,922
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$16913 Nov 202611d left+$0.76/sh+$1,908
cycle +$15,908
[-$1,212โ€ฆ+$951] ยท 40% credit
70%
surv 59%
-$192,018 NOT
cap gain +$20,294
Max even-money escape in the band~$17420 Nov 202618d left+$0.72/sh+$1,804
cycle +$15,804
[-$2,443โ€ฆ+$509] ยท 30% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$189,848 NOT
cap gain +$22,465
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$20120 Nov 202618d left-$4.79/sh-$11,985
cycle +$2,015
[-$21,293โ€ฆ-$15,203]
91%
surv 90%
-$191,124 NOT
cap gain +$21,188
budget: banked $14,000 debit $11,985 (86% used โ‰ˆ 1.0 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$2,015 cash ยท rolled 25 ct earn โ‰ˆ $6,838/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$52,500/mo
vs 50% target ($22,250/mo)+136%
vs normal income ($44,500/mo)118% covered
Net income (after hedge)$52,500/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $165 is $220 below CC-SS $384.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$534,858
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($157,500)339.6%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($232,500)230.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)12.0 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-212,750
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.40/sh (~25% of the $5.60 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $170.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $190.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $163.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$163-170.78		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $170.78		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.18 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$165.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$14,000$-195,551+$16,762+$13,950
+2.5%$169.12 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$3,688$-203,986+$8,326+$3,638
+5%$173.25 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$-6,625$-212,422-$109-$6,675
SS (= V-bounce)$563.00 (22.6ฯƒ)$-981,000$-1,009,461-$797,148-$223,550
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $384.54, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-212,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,654
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (25 ร— $165): -$534,858
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-644,516 ($-432,204 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-420,966 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-223,550, the opportunity cost of earning $52,500/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $198.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,550, position total $-263,895 ($-51,582 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COIN are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (21 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ŸŽฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.182 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$102,654 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-420,966

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$1758d6 Nov 2026$2.7925/25$6,975$26,156$26,15679%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$8,682-$516,883328.2%11.6mo$-626,541 (vs do-nothing $-205,575)
$172.508d6 Nov 2026$3.3525/25$8,375$31,406$31,40676%hist 83%50%hist 40%81%+$9,489-$521,733331.3%11.7mo$-631,391 (vs do-nothing $-210,425)
$172.5015d13 Nov 2026$4.5025/25$11,250$22,500$22,50073%hist 83%57%hist 44%78%+$5,054-$518,858329.4%11.7mo$-628,516 (vs do-nothing $-207,550)
$1708d6 Nov 2026$4.0525/25$10,125$37,969$37,96972%hist 83%58%hist 44%78%+$10,683-$526,233334.1%11.8mo$-635,891 (vs do-nothing $-214,925)
$17015d13 Nov 2026$5.2025/25$13,000$26,000$26,00070%hist 66%64%hist 54%76%+$5,284-$523,358332.3%11.8mo$-633,016 (vs do-nothing $-212,050)
$167.508d6 Nov 2026$4.7025/25$11,750$44,062$44,06268%hist 66%66%hist 54%76%+$10,367-$530,858337.1%11.9mo$-640,516 (vs do-nothing $-219,550)
$17022d20 Nov 2026$6.7525/25$16,875$23,011$23,01168%hist 66%68%hist 54%76%+$4,742-$519,483329.8%11.7mo$-629,141 (vs do-nothing $-208,175)
$167.5015d13 Nov 2026$6.1025/25$15,250$30,500$30,50066%hist 66%71%hist 68%75%+$6,022-$527,358334.8%11.9mo$-637,016 (vs do-nothing $-216,050)
$167.5022d20 Nov 2026$7.5525/25$18,875$25,739$25,73965%hist 66%74%hist 68%74%+$5,339-$523,733332.5%11.8mo$-633,391 (vs do-nothing $-212,425)
$1658d6 Nov 2026$5.6025/25$14,000$52,500$52,50064%hist 66%75%hist 68%73%+$11,240-$534,858339.6%12.0mo$-644,516 (vs do-nothing $-223,550)
$16515d13 Nov 2026$6.9525/25$17,375$34,750$34,75063%hist 66%79%hist 68%73%+$5,979-$531,483337.4%11.9mo$-641,141 (vs do-nothing $-220,175)
$16522d20 Nov 2026$8.6025/25$21,500$29,318$29,31862%hist 66%82%hist 79%72%+$5,551-$527,358334.8%11.9mo$-637,016 (vs do-nothing $-216,050)
$162.508d6 Nov 2026$6.5025/25$16,250$60,938$60,93859%hist 70%85%hist 79%71%+$10,864-$538,858342.1%12.1mo$-648,516 (vs do-nothing $-227,550)
Show 8 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$162.5015d13 Nov 2026$8.0525/25$20,125$40,250$40,25059%hist 70%88%hist 79%71%+$6,618-$534,983339.7%12.0mo$-644,641 (vs do-nothing $-223,675)
$162.5022d20 Nov 2026$9.5525/25$23,875$32,557$32,55758%hist 70%89%hist 79%71%+$5,470-$531,233337.3%11.9mo$-640,891 (vs do-nothing $-219,925)
$16022d20 Nov 2026$10.7025/25$26,750$36,477$36,47755%hist 70%97%hist 89%69%+$5,964-$534,608339.4%12.0mo$-644,266 (vs do-nothing $-223,300)
$16015d13 Nov 2026$8.9025/25$22,250$44,500$44,50055%hist 70%96%hist 89%69%+$5,414-$539,108342.3%12.1mo$-648,766 (vs do-nothing $-227,800)
$1608d6 Nov 2026$7.7025/25$19,250$72,188$72,18855%hist 70%96%hist 89%69%+$11,972-$542,108344.2%12.2mo$-651,766 (vs do-nothing $-230,800)
$157.5022d20 Nov 2026$11.8525/25$29,625$40,398$40,39851%hist 70%100%hist 89%68%+$5,663-$537,983341.6%12.1mo$-647,641 (vs do-nothing $-226,675)
$157.5015d13 Nov 2026$10.1025/25$25,250$50,500$50,50051%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$5,347-$542,358344.4%12.2mo$-652,016 (vs do-nothing $-231,050)
$157.508d6 Nov 2026$8.8025/25$22,000$82,500$82,50050%100%hist 89%67%+$10,767-$545,608346.4%12.3mo$-655,266 (vs do-nothing $-234,300)
70 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$47022d20 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$34$3499+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$31-$00.0%0.0mo$-109,634 (vs do-nothing +$311,333)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2858d6 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$94$9499+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$84-$248,833158.0%5.6mo$-358,491 (vs do-nothing +$62,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2258d6 Nov 2026$0.0725/25$175$656$65699+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$650-$398,683253.1%9.0mo$-508,341 (vs do-nothing $-87,375)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26015d13 Nov 2026$0.0225/25$50$100$10099+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$86-$311,308197.7%7.0mo$-420,966 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30022d20 Nov 2026$0.0325/25$75$102$10299+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$82-$211,283134.1%4.7mo$-320,941 (vs do-nothing +$100,025)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$217.508d6 Nov 2026$0.0525/25$125$469$46999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$445-$417,483265.1%9.4mo$-527,141 (vs do-nothing $-106,175)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29022d20 Nov 2026$0.0525/25$125$170$17099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$143-$236,233150.0%5.3mo$-345,891 (vs do-nothing +$75,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2608d6 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$94$9499+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$39-$311,333197.7%7.0mo$-420,991 (vs do-nothing $-25)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$212.508d6 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$94$9499+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$37-$430,083273.1%9.7mo$-539,741 (vs do-nothing $-118,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24015d13 Nov 2026$0.0325/25$75$150$15099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$71-$361,283229.4%8.1mo$-470,941 (vs do-nothing $-49,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26022d20 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$34$3499%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%$-54-$311,333197.7%7.0mo$-420,991 (vs do-nothing $-25)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2308d6 Nov 2026$0.0625/25$150$562$56299%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$404-$386,208245.2%8.7mo$-495,866 (vs do-nothing $-74,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$227.508d6 Nov 2026$0.0325/25$75$281$28199%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$111-$392,533249.2%8.8mo$-502,191 (vs do-nothing $-81,225)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25022d20 Nov 2026$0.1225/25$300$409$40999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$268-$336,058213.4%7.6mo$-445,716 (vs do-nothing $-24,750)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23015d13 Nov 2026$0.0325/25$75$150$15099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-33-$386,283245.3%8.7mo$-495,941 (vs do-nothing $-74,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2208d6 Nov 2026$0.1025/25$250$938$93899%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$550-$411,108261.0%9.2mo$-520,766 (vs do-nothing $-99,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24022d20 Nov 2026$0.2125/25$525$716$71699%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$479-$360,833229.1%8.1mo$-470,491 (vs do-nothing $-49,525)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22515d13 Nov 2026$0.1225/25$300$600$60099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$324-$398,558253.1%9.0mo$-508,216 (vs do-nothing $-87,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2158d6 Nov 2026$0.0425/25$100$375$37598%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%$-112-$423,758269.1%9.5mo$-533,416 (vs do-nothing $-112,450)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$222.5015d13 Nov 2026$0.0825/25$200$400$40098%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$61-$404,908257.1%9.1mo$-514,566 (vs do-nothing $-93,600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22015d13 Nov 2026$0.0525/25$125$250$25098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%$-166-$411,233261.1%9.2mo$-520,891 (vs do-nothing $-99,925)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23022d20 Nov 2026$0.3325/25$825$1,125$1,12598%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$711-$385,533244.8%8.7mo$-495,191 (vs do-nothing $-74,225)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$197.508d6 Nov 2026$0.4925/25$1,225$4,594$4,59498%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$3,954-$466,383296.1%10.5mo$-576,041 (vs do-nothing $-155,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2108d6 Nov 2026$0.1125/25$275$1,031$1,03198%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$41-$436,083276.9%9.8mo$-545,741 (vs do-nothing $-124,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21515d13 Nov 2026$0.1225/25$300$600$60097%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%$-26-$423,558268.9%9.5mo$-533,216 (vs do-nothing $-112,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22522d20 Nov 2026$0.3225/25$800$1,091$1,09197%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$535-$398,058252.7%8.9mo$-507,716 (vs do-nothing $-86,750)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$212.5015d13 Nov 2026$0.4125/25$1,025$2,050$2,05097%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$1,283-$429,083272.4%9.6mo$-538,741 (vs do-nothing $-117,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2058d6 Nov 2026$0.2125/25$525$1,969$1,96997%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$743-$448,333284.7%10.1mo$-557,991 (vs do-nothing $-137,025)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22022d20 Nov 2026$0.5525/25$1,375$1,875$1,87597%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$1,128-$409,983260.3%9.2mo$-519,641 (vs do-nothing $-98,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$202.508d6 Nov 2026$0.1825/25$450$1,688$1,68897%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$301-$454,658288.7%10.2mo$-564,316 (vs do-nothing $-143,350)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21015d13 Nov 2026$0.4025/25$1,000$2,000$2,00097%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$1,059-$435,358276.4%9.8mo$-545,016 (vs do-nothing $-124,050)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2008d6 Nov 2026$0.4125/25$1,025$3,844$3,84496%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$2,193-$460,333292.3%10.3mo$-569,991 (vs do-nothing $-149,025)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$207.5015d13 Nov 2026$0.5525/25$1,375$2,750$2,75096%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$1,596-$441,233280.1%9.9mo$-550,891 (vs do-nothing $-129,925)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21522d20 Nov 2026$0.6825/25$1,700$2,318$2,31896%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$1,291-$422,158268.0%9.5mo$-531,816 (vs do-nothing $-110,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20515d13 Nov 2026$0.6125/25$1,525$3,050$3,05095%hist 95%10%hist 4%96%+$1,636-$447,333284.0%10.1mo$-556,991 (vs do-nothing $-136,025)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1958d6 Nov 2026$0.5525/25$1,375$5,156$5,15695%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$2,729-$472,483300.0%10.6mo$-582,141 (vs do-nothing $-161,175)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21022d20 Nov 2026$0.8725/25$2,175$2,966$2,96695%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$1,562-$434,183275.7%9.8mo$-543,841 (vs do-nothing $-122,875)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$202.5015d13 Nov 2026$0.6925/25$1,725$3,450$3,45095%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$1,718-$453,383287.9%10.2mo$-563,041 (vs do-nothing $-142,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20015d13 Nov 2026$0.8225/25$2,050$4,100$4,10094%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$1,980-$459,308291.6%10.3mo$-568,966 (vs do-nothing $-148,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$192.508d6 Nov 2026$0.6825/25$1,700$6,375$6,37594%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$3,252-$478,408303.8%10.8mo$-588,066 (vs do-nothing $-167,100)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20522d20 Nov 2026$1.1225/25$2,800$3,818$3,81893%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$1,863-$446,058283.2%10.0mo$-555,716 (vs do-nothing $-134,750)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$197.5015d13 Nov 2026$0.9525/25$2,375$4,750$4,75093%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$2,157-$465,233295.4%10.5mo$-574,891 (vs do-nothing $-153,925)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1908d6 Nov 2026$0.8425/25$2,100$7,875$7,87592%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$3,853-$484,258307.5%10.9mo$-593,916 (vs do-nothing $-172,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$202.5022d20 Nov 2026$1.2925/25$3,225$4,398$4,39892%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$2,095-$451,883286.9%10.2mo$-561,541 (vs do-nothing $-140,575)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19515d13 Nov 2026$1.1525/25$2,875$5,750$5,75092%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$2,581-$470,983299.0%10.6mo$-580,641 (vs do-nothing $-159,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20022d20 Nov 2026$1.5025/25$3,750$5,114$5,11491%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$2,418-$457,608290.5%10.3mo$-567,266 (vs do-nothing $-146,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$187.508d6 Nov 2026$1.0525/25$2,625$9,844$9,84491%hist 95%19%hist 13%92%+$4,666-$489,983311.1%11.0mo$-599,641 (vs do-nothing $-178,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$192.5015d13 Nov 2026$1.3725/25$3,425$6,850$6,85090%hist 95%20%hist 13%91%+$2,983-$476,683302.7%10.7mo$-586,341 (vs do-nothing $-165,375)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$197.5022d20 Nov 2026$1.6325/25$4,075$5,557$5,55790%hist 95%20%hist 23%91%+$2,359-$463,533294.3%10.4mo$-573,191 (vs do-nothing $-152,225)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1858d6 Nov 2026$1.3325/25$3,325$12,469$12,46989%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$5,812-$495,533314.6%11.1mo$-605,191 (vs do-nothing $-184,225)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19522d20 Nov 2026$1.8825/25$4,700$6,409$6,40989%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$2,665-$469,158297.9%10.5mo$-578,816 (vs do-nothing $-157,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19015d13 Nov 2026$1.5525/25$3,875$7,750$7,75089%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$3,038-$482,483306.3%10.8mo$-592,141 (vs do-nothing $-171,175)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$192.5022d20 Nov 2026$2.2125/25$5,525$7,534$7,53488%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$3,278-$474,583301.3%10.7mo$-584,241 (vs do-nothing $-163,275)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$187.5015d13 Nov 2026$1.7725/25$4,425$8,850$8,85087%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$3,120-$488,183310.0%11.0mo$-597,841 (vs do-nothing $-176,875)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$182.508d6 Nov 2026$1.5725/25$3,925$14,719$14,71987%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$6,186-$501,183318.2%11.3mo$-610,841 (vs do-nothing $-189,875)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19022d20 Nov 2026$2.4825/25$6,200$8,455$8,45586%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$3,270-$480,158304.9%10.8mo$-589,816 (vs do-nothing $-168,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18515d13 Nov 2026$2.2425/25$5,600$11,200$11,20085%hist 86%30%hist 30%87%+$4,247-$493,258313.2%11.1mo$-602,916 (vs do-nothing $-181,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1808d6 Nov 2026$1.9025/25$4,750$17,812$17,81285%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$6,919-$506,608321.7%11.4mo$-616,266 (vs do-nothing $-195,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$187.5022d20 Nov 2026$2.8225/25$7,050$9,614$9,61485%hist 86%32%hist 30%87%+$3,581-$485,558308.3%10.9mo$-595,216 (vs do-nothing $-174,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$182.5015d13 Nov 2026$2.4725/25$6,175$12,350$12,35083%hist 86%35%hist 30%86%+$3,936-$498,933316.8%11.2mo$-608,591 (vs do-nothing $-187,625)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18522d20 Nov 2026$3.2525/25$8,125$11,080$11,08083%hist 86%36%hist 30%85%+$3,894-$490,733311.6%11.0mo$-600,391 (vs do-nothing $-179,425)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.508d6 Nov 2026$2.3125/25$5,775$21,656$21,65682%hist 86%37%hist 30%85%+$7,818-$511,833325.0%11.5mo$-621,491 (vs do-nothing $-200,525)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18015d13 Nov 2026$2.8825/25$7,200$14,400$14,40081%hist 86%39%hist 30%84%+$4,247-$504,158320.1%11.3mo$-613,816 (vs do-nothing $-192,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$182.5022d20 Nov 2026$3.6025/25$9,000$12,273$12,27381%hist 86%40%hist 40%84%+$3,849-$496,108315.0%11.1mo$-605,766 (vs do-nothing $-184,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18022d20 Nov 2026$4.1525/25$10,375$14,148$14,14879%hist 83%45%hist 40%82%+$4,359-$500,983318.1%11.3mo$-610,641 (vs do-nothing $-189,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.5015d13 Nov 2026$3.3525/25$8,375$16,750$16,75079%hist 83%45%hist 40%82%+$4,541-$509,233323.3%11.4mo$-618,891 (vs do-nothing $-197,925)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.5022d20 Nov 2026$4.7025/25$11,750$16,023$16,02376%hist 83%50%hist 44%81%+$4,588-$505,858321.2%11.4mo$-615,516 (vs do-nothing $-194,550)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17515d13 Nov 2026$3.9025/25$9,750$19,500$19,50076%hist 83%51%hist 44%80%+$4,875-$514,108326.4%11.6mo$-623,766 (vs do-nothing $-202,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17522d20 Nov 2026$5.2525/25$13,125$17,898$17,89874%hist 83%56%hist 44%79%+$4,546-$510,733324.3%11.5mo$-620,391 (vs do-nothing $-199,425)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$172.5022d20 Nov 2026$6.0025/25$15,000$20,455$20,45571%hist 83%61%hist 54%78%+$5,163-$515,108327.1%11.6mo$-624,766 (vs do-nothing $-203,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-30 03:13