FORTRESS FIGHT: COIN-LC500 @ $139.16

BE SS: $563.00  |  CC-SS: $381.70  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-31 03:19

COIN-LC500BBC @ $139.16   UNDERWATER $423.84 (75.3% below BE SS)

25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $563.00  |  CC-SS: $381.70 (banked floor $354.62)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $500 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $79.745/sh)
SP: $330 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $100.135/sh)
HP: $300 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $83.388/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$232,500(ND $63.00 + SW $30) x 2500
Normal income ref$40,125/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay โ‰ˆ $14,097/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-220,000fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,063/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$40,125/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $157,500
ML VELOCITY
5.8 mo to earn back $232,500
Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $381.70 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $250C (14d, $107/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.
๐Ÿฆ CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-16
$37,009
Hole (after banked)
$182,991
was $220,000 ยท 17% earned back
Cycles closed
101
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$381.70 → $354.62
? 6 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (101) and event log · CLOSED 91 · UNKNOWN 6 · EXPIRED 4 · updated 2026-10-31 03:15
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED25x $175C 30 Oct 2026$1.91$4,7692026-10-272026-10-29$1.02$2,219U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$4762026-10-262026-10-27$1.23$-16U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$5952026-10-262026-10-27$1.21$-10U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$3572026-10-262026-10-27$1.23$-12U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$5952026-10-262026-10-27$1.21$-10U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$1192026-10-262026-10-27$1.21$-2U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$1192026-10-262026-10-27$1.26$-7U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$1192026-10-262026-10-27$1.21$-2U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $180C 30 Oct 2026$1.19$5952026-10-262026-10-27$1.21$-10U10001299execution
CLOSED6x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$1,4252026-10-232026-10-26$0.78$957U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$9502026-10-232026-10-26$0.77$642U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$1,1882026-10-232026-10-26$0.76$808U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$7132026-10-232026-10-26$0.77$482U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$2382026-10-232026-10-26$0.77$161U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$1,1882026-10-232026-10-26$0.77$803U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 30 Oct 2026$2.38$2382026-10-232026-10-26$0.77$161U10001299execution
CLOSED17x $187.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.45$4,1652026-10-222026-10-23$1.96$833U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $187.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.45$1,2252026-10-222026-10-23$1.98$235U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $187.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.45$7352026-10-222026-10-23$1.97$144U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$7922026-10-212026-10-22$2.29$105U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$2642026-10-212026-10-22$2.29$35U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$1,3202026-10-212026-10-22$2.30$170U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$7922026-10-212026-10-22$2.30$102U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$2642026-10-212026-10-22$2.36$28U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$1,3202026-10-212026-10-22$2.30$170U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$7922026-10-212026-10-22$2.29$105U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $192.5C 30 Oct 2026$2.64$1,0562026-10-212026-10-22$2.29$140U10001299execution
CLOSED17x $195C 30 Oct 2026$2.78$4,7322026-10-202026-10-21$2.25$907U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $195C 30 Oct 2026$2.78$8352026-10-202026-10-21$2.28$151U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $195C 30 Oct 2026$2.78$1,3922026-10-202026-10-21$2.28$252U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$2,6442026-10-162026-10-20$2.43$1,429U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$2,6442026-10-162026-10-20$2.43$1,429U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.37$292U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.43$286U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$1,5862026-10-162026-10-20$2.38$872U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$2,1152026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$1,155U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $197.5C 30 Oct 2026$5.29$5292026-10-162026-10-20$2.40$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$1842026-10-162026-10-16$5.02$-318U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$9212026-10-162026-10-16$5.05$-1,604U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$9212026-10-162026-10-16$5.05$-1,604U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$5532026-10-162026-10-16$5.05$-962U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$1842026-10-162026-10-16$5.05$-321U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$1842026-10-162026-10-16$4.95$-311U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$1842026-10-162026-10-16$5.03$-319U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$5532026-10-162026-10-16$5.02$-953U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $185C 23 Oct 2026$1.84$9212026-10-162026-10-16$5.02$-1,589U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$6522026-10-152026-10-16$1.20$292U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$1,0872026-10-152026-10-16$1.21$482U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$1,0872026-10-152026-10-16$1.21$482U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$2172026-10-152026-10-16$1.21$96U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$6522026-10-152026-10-16$1.21$289U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$2172026-10-152026-10-16$1.33$84U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$8692026-10-152026-10-16$1.20$389U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $190C 23 Oct 2026$2.17$6522026-10-152026-10-16$1.20$292U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$1,1452026-10-132026-10-15$1.47$410U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$1,1452026-10-132026-10-15$1.49$400U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$1,1452026-10-132026-10-15$1.49$400U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$2292026-10-132026-10-15$1.48$81U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$2292026-10-132026-10-15$1.57$72U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$6872026-10-132026-10-15$1.46$249U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $195C 23 Oct 2026$2.29$1,1452026-10-132026-10-15$1.47$410U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $200C 23 Oct 2026$2.48$2482026-10-082026-10-13$2.04$44U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $200C 23 Oct 2026$2.48$9932026-10-082026-10-13$2.03$181U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $200C 23 Oct 2026$2.48$2482026-10-082026-10-13$2.03$45U10001299execution
CLOSED10x $200C 23 Oct 2026$2.48$2,4832026-10-082026-10-13$2.04$443U10001299execution
CLOSED9x $200C 23 Oct 2026$2.48$2,2352026-10-082026-10-13$2.04$399U10001299execution
CLOSED4x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$1,2122026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$664U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$3032026-10-062026-10-08$1.45$158U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$1,5142026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$829U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$1,5142026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$829U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$9092026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$498U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$3032026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$166U10001299execution
CLOSED6x $210C 23 Oct 2026$3.03$1,8172026-10-062026-10-08$1.37$995U10001299execution
CLOSED5x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$1,8762026-10-022026-10-06$2.34$706U10001299snapshot
CLOSED5x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$1,8762026-10-022026-10-06$2.37$692U10001299snapshot
CLOSED3x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$1,1262026-10-022026-10-06$2.36$418U10001299snapshot
CLOSED1x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$3752026-10-022026-10-06$2.44$131U10001299snapshot
CLOSED5x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$1,8762026-10-022026-10-06$2.37$692U10001299snapshot
CLOSED1x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$3752026-10-022026-10-06$2.35$140U10001299snapshot
CLOSED5x $215C 23 Oct 2026$3.75$1,8762026-10-022026-10-06$2.34$706U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN25x $240C 30 Oct 2026$5.47$13,6732026-09-212026-10-02$5.47$0U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN25x $195C 25 Sep 2026$0.92$2,3082026-09-182026-09-21$0.92$0U10001299snapshot
EXPIRED25x $225C 11 Sep 2026$0.88$2,2002026-09-042026-09-14$0.00$2,200U10001299execution
CLOSED7x $200C 4 Sep 2026$0.91$6352026-09-012026-09-02$0.39$362U10001299snapshot
CLOSED10x $200C 4 Sep 2026$0.91$9072026-09-012026-09-02$0.39$517U10001299snapshot
CLOSED8x $200C 4 Sep 2026$0.91$7252026-09-012026-09-02$0.39$413U10001299snapshot
EXPIRED25x $215C 28 Aug 2026$0.92$2,3082026-08-252026-08-31$0.00$2,308U10001299snapshot
CLOSED15x $165C 21 Aug 2026$0.68$1,0252026-08-182026-08-19$0.35$500U10001299snapshot
CLOSED10x $165C 21 Aug 2026$0.68$6832026-08-182026-08-19$0.35$333U10001299snapshot
EXPIRED20x $157.5C 14 Aug 2026$0.73$1,4612026-08-132026-08-17$0.00$1,461U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN28x $165C 14 Aug 2026$0.88$2,4642026-08-102026-08-13$0.88$0U10001299execution
EXPIRED25x $180C 31 Jul 2026$1.89$4,7292026-07-272026-08-03$0.00$4,729U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN25x $210C 14 Aug 2026$6.23$15,5682026-07-222026-07-27$6.23$0U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN25x $180C 24 Jul 2026$0.52$1,3002026-07-202026-07-22$0.52$0U10001299execution
CLOSED25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026$1.11$2,7662026-07-172026-07-20$0.20$2,266U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN8x $175C 17 Jul 2026$1.26$1,0102026-07-162026-07-17$1.26$0U10001299seed
Event log
2026-10-29 BOT 8x $172.5C 20261030 @ $1.41 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-29 CLOSED 25x $175C 20261030: banked $2,219
2026-10-27 CLOSED 4x $180C 20261030: banked $-16
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $180C: banked $-10 (4 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $180C: banked $-2 (9 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $180C: banked $-7 (10 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $180C: banked $-2 (11 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $180C: banked $-10 (12 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 3x $180C: banked $-12 (17 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $180C: banked $-10 (20 remain)
2026-10-27 SOLD 4x $175C 20261030 @ $1.92 (extends leg to 25)
2026-10-27 SOLD 5x $175C 20261030 @ $1.90 (extends leg to 21)
2026-10-27 SOLD 1x $175C 20261030 @ $1.90 (extends leg to 16)
2026-10-27 SOLD 1x $175C 20261030 @ $1.95 (extends leg to 15)
2026-10-27 SOLD 1x $175C 20261030 @ $1.90 (extends leg to 14)
2026-10-27 SOLD 5x $175C 20261030 @ $1.90 (extends leg to 13)
2026-10-27 SOLD 3x $175C 20261030 @ $1.92 (extends leg to 8)
2026-10-27 SOLD 5x $175C 20261030 @ $1.90 (new leg)
2026-10-26 BOT 1x $195C 20261113 @ $1.62 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 BOT 1x $195C 20261113 @ $1.56 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 BOT 1x $195C 20261113 @ $1.59 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 BOT 2x $195C 20261113 @ $1.56 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 BOT 1x $195C 20261113 @ $1.59 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 BOT 2x $195C 20261113 @ $1.56 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 1x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.22 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 1x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.16 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 1x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.19 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 2x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.16 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 1x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.19 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 SLD 2x $172.5C 20261030 @ $2.16 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-26 CLOSED 6x $185C 20261030: banked $957
2026-10-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $185C: banked $161 (6 remain)
2026-10-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $185C: banked $803 (7 remain)
2026-10-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $185C: banked $161 (12 remain)
2026-10-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 3x $185C: banked $482 (13 remain)
2026-10-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $185C: banked $808 (16 remain)
2026-10-26 SOLD 6x $180C 20261030 @ $1.20 (extends leg to 25)
2026-10-26 SOLD 1x $180C 20261030 @ $1.19 (extends leg to 19)
2026-10-26 SOLD 5x $180C 20261030 @ $1.19 (extends leg to 18)
2026-10-26 SOLD 1x $180C 20261030 @ $1.19 (extends leg to 13)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK ยท %B 6 (live) ยท RSI 37 ยท MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) ยท RSI 30 ยท %B -9 ยท hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $167.70 (+21%) ยท daily UBB $194.17 ยท 1-wk expected move ยฑ$14 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: ๐ŸŽฏ or ๐Ÿ’Ž at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
โš  Next earnings 2027-02-11: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 25 contracts at $150 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 77%, breach 23%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($20,063/mo); it brings $22,393/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 25 ร— $144/7d for $41,250/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 25 ร— $160/7d (90% survival, $7,714/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $574,027 (364% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $563, recoverable in 14.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 25 contracts realizes $-220,300 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (7d) · sell 25 × $150, 77% survival, $22,393/mo (E[net] $5,153/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆6 Nov 2026 · 7d25 × $15077%$22,393$5,153
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $5,225 with probability 65%; on the 35% touch you roll, paying $12,436 to close and taking $6,190 back from the best priced door (net cash $6,247) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 7d · E[net] $5,153/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

๐ŸŽฏ Engine pick: sell 25 ร— $150 (50% normal), 77% survival, breach 23%, $22,393/mo.
โš–๏ธ Worth a safer step: the $155 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 23% โ†’ 15%) for $8,893/mo less (40% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (โ‰ˆ1ฯƒ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $155 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect COIN to stay flat-to-down near term.
COIN  spot $139.16 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸๐Ÿ›ก safe yield25 × $1606 Nov7d15.0%90%hist 95%20%hist 23%+4pp$1,800$7,714-$14,679$552,452
Sell 25 ร— $160 15.0% OTM over spot $139.16 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.79 mid)
= $1,800 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $7,714/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $160)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays โ‰ค $160.79)
91%
EV / mo
+$2,781
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
4% whole by 9mo vs 0% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$5,502/mo
median; plan ~$3,741/mo after 68% keep · $49,157 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.0 mo, measured ONLY among the 4% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$12,033
Free roll-up
+$7/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$181 @ 81% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.82/sh now โ†’ $5.53 mid-life (likely $5.03โ€“$8.36) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.81/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 433 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $164 (overshoots $4.21). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$16013 Nov 202610d left+$2.78/sh+$6,957
cycle +$8,757
[+$6,513โ€ฆ+$10,025] ยท 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$203,324 NOT
cap gain +$16,676
Max even-money escape in the band~$17627 Nov 202624d left+$0.89/sh+$2,231
cycle +$4,031
[+$291โ€ฆ+$4,727] ยท 78% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$202,031 NOT
cap gain +$17,969
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$16713 Nov 202610d left+$0.06/sh+$153
cycle +$1,953
[-$1,500โ€ฆ+$1,917] ยท 51% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$207,529 NOT
cap gain +$12,471
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$18127 Nov 202624d left-$0.36/sh-$900
cycle +$900
[-$3,590โ€ฆ+$1,375] ยท 37% credit
81%
surv 77%
-$203,262 NOT
cap gain +$16,738
budget: banked $1,800 debit $900 (50% used โ‰ˆ 0.5 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$900 cash ยท rolled 25 ct earn โ‰ˆ $16,165/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,714/mo
vs 50% target ($20,063/mo)-62%
vs normal income ($40,125/mo)19% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,714/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $160 is $222 below CC-SS $381.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$552,452
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($157,500)350.8%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($232,500)237.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)13.8 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-220,188
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $160.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $158.40Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$158-160.79		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $160.79		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.15 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$160.00 (1.5ฯƒ)$1,800$-210,281+$9,719+$1,725
+2.5%$164.00 (1.8ฯƒ)$-8,200$-218,761+$1,239-$8,275
+5%$168.00 (2.0ฯƒ)$-18,200$-227,241-$7,241-$18,275
SS (= V-bounce)$563.00 (29.9ฯƒ)$-1,005,700$-1,064,641-$844,641-$348,275
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $381.70, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-220,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,166
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (25 ร— $160): -$552,452
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-680,287 ($-460,287 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-332,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-348,275, the opportunity cost of earning $7,714/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $167.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,450, position total $-226,605 ($-6,605 vs today)
▸33% normal ← lean25 × $1556 Nov7d11.4%85%hist 86%31%hist 30%+5pp$3,150$13,500-$8,893$563,602
Sell 25 ร— $155 11.4% OTM over spot $139.16 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $1.34 mid)
= $3,150 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $13,500/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $155)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays โ‰ค $156.34)
86%
EV / mo
+$4,096
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
6% whole by 9mo vs 1% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$7,958/mo
median; plan ~$5,412/mo after 68% keep · $71,327 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.4 mo, measured ONLY among the 6% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
23%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$9,976
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$176 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.42/sh now โ†’ $5.25 mid-life (likely $5.12โ€“$8.33) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.99/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 700 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $159 (overshoots $3.81). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$15513 Nov 202610d left+$2.63/sh+$6,568
cycle +$9,718
[+$5,710โ€ฆ+$8,296] ยท 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$204,263 NOT
cap gain +$15,737
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$16627 Nov 202624d left+$2.08/sh+$5,189
cycle +$8,339
[+$3,149โ€ฆ+$7,241] ยท 97% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$201,522 NOT
cap gain +$18,478
Max even-money escape in the band~$17127 Nov 202624d left+$0.58/sh+$1,461
cycle +$4,611
[-$1,223โ€ฆ+$3,193] ยท 58% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$203,351 NOT
cap gain +$16,649
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$16113 Nov 202610d left+$0.23/sh+$569
cycle +$3,719
[-$1,354โ€ฆ+$1,726] ยท 51% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$208,043 NOT
cap gain +$11,957
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$17627 Nov 202624d left-$0.62/sh-$1,557
cycle +$1,593
[-$4,876โ€ฆ-$255] ยท 24% credit
82%
surv 78%
-$204,469 NOT
cap gain +$15,531
budget: banked $3,150 debit $1,557 (49% used โ‰ˆ 0.5 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$1,593 cash ยท rolled 25 ct earn โ‰ˆ $14,460/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$13,500/mo
vs 50% target ($20,063/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($40,125/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$13,500/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $155 is $227 below CC-SS $381.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$563,602
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($157,500)357.8%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($232,500)242.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)14.0 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-220,200
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.26 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $156.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $153.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$153-156.34		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $156.34		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.15 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$155.00 (1.1ฯƒ)$3,150$-210,831+$9,169+$3,075
+2.5%$158.88 (1.4ฯƒ)$-6,538$-219,046+$954-$6,612
+5%$162.75 (1.7ฯƒ)$-16,225$-227,261-$7,261-$16,300
SS (= V-bounce)$563.00 (29.9ฯƒ)$-1,016,850$-1,075,791-$855,791-$359,425
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $381.70, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-220,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,166
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (25 ร— $155): -$563,602
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-691,437 ($-471,437 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-332,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-359,425, the opportunity cost of earning $13,500/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $167.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,600, position total $-237,755 ($-17,755 vs today)
▸๐ŸŽฏ 50% normal25 × $1506 Nov7d7.8%77%hist 83%48%hist 40%+9pp$5,225$22,393—$574,027
Sell 25 ร— $150 7.8% OTM over spot $139.16 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $2.21 mid)
= $5,225 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $22,393/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $150)
77%
Breach risk
23%
POP (stays โ‰ค $152.21)
81%
EV / mo
+$4,902
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+9pp
10% whole by 9mo vs 1% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~4.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$10,756/mo
median; plan ~$7,314/mo after 68% keep · $94,629 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.1 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
35%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$7,211
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$176 @ 85% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.03/sh now โ†’ $4.97 mid-life (likely $5.31โ€“$8.13) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.88/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,052 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $154 (overshoots $3.51). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$15013 Nov 202610d left+$2.48/sh+$6,190
cycle +$11,415
[+$4,935โ€ฆ+$7,465] ยท 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$204,466 NOT
cap gain +$15,534
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$16127 Nov 202624d left+$1.74/sh+$4,360
cycle +$9,585
[+$1,722โ€ฆ+$4,982] ยท 93% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$202,176 NOT
cap gain +$17,824
Max even-money escape in the band~$16627 Nov 202624d left+$0.29/sh+$733
cycle +$5,958
[-$2,449โ€ฆ+$1,191] ยท 38% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$203,904 NOT
cap gain +$16,096
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$15613 Nov 202610d left+$0.09/sh+$235
cycle +$5,460
[-$1,976โ€ฆ+$574] ยท 33% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$208,202 NOT
cap gain +$11,798
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$17627 Nov 202624d left-$1.82/sh-$4,553
cycle +$672
[-$8,972โ€ฆ-$4,571] ยท 4% credit
85%
surv 83%
-$205,390 NOT
cap gain +$14,610
budget: banked $5,225 debit $4,553 (87% used โ‰ˆ 0.9 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$672 cash ยท rolled 25 ct earn โ‰ˆ $9,854/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$22,393/mo
vs 50% target ($20,063/mo)+12%
vs normal income ($40,125/mo)56% covered
Net income (after hedge)$22,393/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $150 is $232 below CC-SS $381.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$574,027
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($157,500)364.5%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($232,500)246.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)14.3 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-220,300
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.09 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $152.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $148.50Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$148-152.21		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $152.21		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.15 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$150.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$5,225$-210,656+$9,344+$5,150
+2.5%$153.75 (1.0ฯƒ)$-4,150$-218,606+$1,394-$4,225
+5%$157.50 (1.3ฯƒ)$-13,525$-226,556-$6,556-$13,600
SS (= V-bounce)$563.00 (29.9ฯƒ)$-1,027,275$-1,086,216-$866,216-$369,850
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $381.70, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-220,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,166
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (25 ร— $150): -$574,027
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-701,862 ($-481,862 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-332,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-369,850, the opportunity cost of earning $22,393/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $167.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,025, position total $-248,180 ($-28,180 vs today)
▸100% normal25 × $1446 Nov7d3.5%64%hist 66%74%hist 68%+19pp$9,625$41,250+$18,857$584,627
Sell 25 ร— $144 3.5% OTM over spot $139.16 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $4.03 mid)
= $9,625 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $41,250/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $144)
64%
Breach risk
36%
POP (stays โ‰ค $148.03)
73%
EV / mo
+$6,681
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+19pp
20% whole by 9mo vs 1% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~9.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$14,349/mo
median; plan ~$9,757/mo after 68% keep · $124,551 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.9 mo [5.6-7.7], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
56%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,007
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$180 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.58/sh now โ†’ $4.65 mid-life (likely $5.93โ€“$8.56) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,694 simulated challenges: the $144 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $148 (overshoots $3.60). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$14413 Nov 202610d left+$2.30/sh+$5,751
cycle +$15,376
[+$3,960โ€ฆ+$5,350] ยท 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$202,785 NOT
cap gain +$17,215
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$15527 Nov 202624d left+$1.37/sh+$3,413
cycle +$13,038
[-$159โ€ฆ+$2,378] ยท 71% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$201,003 NOT
cap gain +$18,997
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$14913 Nov 202610d left+$0.33/sh+$824
cycle +$10,449
[-$1,854โ€ฆ-$41] ยท 25% credit
72%
surv 63%
-$205,872 NOT
cap gain +$14,128
Max even-money escape in the band~$15520 Nov 202618d left+$0.26/sh+$649
cycle +$10,274
[-$2,926โ€ฆ-$537] ยท 20% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$203,768 NOT
cap gain +$16,232
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$18027 Nov 202624d left-$3.11/sh-$7,787
cycle +$1,838
[-$14,888โ€ฆ-$10,159]
91%
surv 90%
-$202,703 NOT
cap gain +$17,297
budget: banked $9,625 debit $7,787 (81% used โ‰ˆ 0.8 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$1,838 cash ยท rolled 25 ct earn โ‰ˆ $4,807/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$41,250/mo
vs 50% target ($20,063/mo)+106%
vs normal income ($40,125/mo)103% covered
Net income (after hedge)$41,250/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $144 is $238 below CC-SS $381.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$584,627
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($157,500)371.2%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($232,500)251.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)14.6 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-220,438
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.96/sh (~25% of the $3.85 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $148.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $144)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $194.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $142.56Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$143-148.03		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $148.03		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.15 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$144.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$9,625$-208,536+$11,464+$9,550
+2.5%$147.60 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$625$-216,168+$3,832+$550
+5%$151.20 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$-8,375$-223,800-$3,800-$8,450
SS (= V-bounce)$563.00 (29.9ฯƒ)$-1,037,875$-1,096,816-$876,816-$380,450
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $381.70, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-220,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,166
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (25 ร— $144): -$584,627
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-712,462 ($-492,462 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-332,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-380,450, the opportunity cost of earning $41,250/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $167.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,625, position total $-258,780 ($-38,780 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COIN are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (31 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ŸŽฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.152 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$92,166 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-332,012

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$1507d6 Nov 2026$2.0925/25$5,225$22,393$22,39377%hist 83%48%hist 40%81%+$4,902-$574,027364.5%14.3mo$-701,862 (vs do-nothing $-369,850)
$1497d6 Nov 2026$2.3625/25$5,900$25,286$25,28675%hist 83%52%hist 44%79%+$5,583-$575,852365.6%14.4mo$-703,687 (vs do-nothing $-371,675)
$1487d6 Nov 2026$2.5325/25$6,325$27,107$27,10773%hist 83%56%hist 44%78%+$4,959-$577,927366.9%14.4mo$-705,762 (vs do-nothing $-373,750)
$1477d6 Nov 2026$2.8725/25$7,175$30,750$30,75071%hist 83%60%hist 54%77%+$5,907-$579,577368.0%14.4mo$-707,412 (vs do-nothing $-375,400)
$14914d13 Nov 2026$3.9525/25$9,875$21,161$21,16171%hist 83%61%hist 54%77%+$4,360-$571,877363.1%14.3mo$-699,712 (vs do-nothing $-367,700)
$14814d13 Nov 2026$4.2525/25$10,625$22,768$22,76869%hist 66%65%hist 54%76%+$4,501-$573,627364.2%14.3mo$-701,462 (vs do-nothing $-369,450)
$1467d6 Nov 2026$3.1525/25$7,875$33,750$33,75069%hist 66%65%hist 54%76%+$5,948-$581,377369.1%14.5mo$-709,212 (vs do-nothing $-377,200)
$14714d13 Nov 2026$4.5525/25$11,375$24,375$24,37568%hist 66%68%hist 54%75%+$4,534-$575,377365.3%14.3mo$-703,212 (vs do-nothing $-371,200)
$1457d6 Nov 2026$3.5025/25$8,750$37,500$37,50067%hist 66%69%hist 54%74%+$6,461-$583,002370.2%14.5mo$-710,837 (vs do-nothing $-378,825)
$14614d13 Nov 2026$4.9025/25$12,250$26,250$26,25066%hist 66%72%hist 68%75%+$4,724-$577,002366.4%14.4mo$-704,837 (vs do-nothing $-372,825)
$1447d6 Nov 2026$3.8525/25$9,625$41,250$41,25064%hist 66%74%hist 68%73%+$6,681-$584,627371.2%14.6mo$-712,462 (vs do-nothing $-380,450)
$14514d13 Nov 2026$5.2025/25$13,000$27,857$27,85764%hist 66%76%hist 68%73%+$4,529-$578,752367.5%14.4mo$-706,587 (vs do-nothing $-374,575)
$14521d20 Nov 2026$6.7525/25$16,875$24,107$24,10763%hist 66%79%hist 68%73%+$4,159-$574,877365.0%14.3mo$-702,712 (vs do-nothing $-370,700)
Show 18 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$14528d27 Nov 2026$7.7025/25$19,250$20,625$20,62562%hist 66%81%hist 79%73%+$3,278-$572,502363.5%14.3mo$-700,337 (vs do-nothing $-368,325)
$14414d13 Nov 2026$5.6025/25$14,000$30,000$30,00062%hist 66%80%hist 68%72%+$4,749-$580,252368.4%14.5mo$-708,087 (vs do-nothing $-376,075)
$1437d6 Nov 2026$4.2025/25$10,500$45,000$45,00062%hist 66%79%hist 68%72%+$6,598-$586,252372.2%14.6mo$-714,087 (vs do-nothing $-382,075)
$14314d13 Nov 2026$5.9525/25$14,875$31,875$31,87560%hist 66%84%hist 79%71%+$4,579-$581,877369.4%14.5mo$-709,712 (vs do-nothing $-377,700)
$1427d6 Nov 2026$4.6025/25$11,500$49,286$49,28659%hist 70%85%hist 79%70%+$6,736-$587,752373.2%14.6mo$-715,587 (vs do-nothing $-383,575)
$14214d13 Nov 2026$6.4025/25$16,000$34,286$34,28658%hist 70%88%hist 79%70%+$4,817-$583,252370.3%14.5mo$-711,087 (vs do-nothing $-379,075)
$1417d6 Nov 2026$5.0525/25$12,625$54,107$54,10757%hist 70%90%hist 79%69%+$7,086-$589,127374.0%14.7mo$-716,962 (vs do-nothing $-384,950)
$14114d13 Nov 2026$6.8025/25$17,000$36,429$36,42956%hist 70%92%hist 89%69%+$4,659-$584,752371.3%14.6mo$-712,587 (vs do-nothing $-380,575)
$14028d27 Nov 2026$9.8525/25$24,625$26,384$26,38455%hist 70%97%hist 89%69%+$2,889-$579,627368.0%14.4mo$-707,462 (vs do-nothing $-375,450)
$14021d20 Nov 2026$8.9525/25$22,375$31,964$31,96455%hist 70%97%hist 89%69%+$4,493-$581,877369.4%14.5mo$-709,712 (vs do-nothing $-377,700)
$14014d13 Nov 2026$7.2025/25$18,000$38,571$38,57155%hist 70%96%hist 89%68%+$4,370-$586,252372.2%14.6mo$-714,087 (vs do-nothing $-382,075)
$1407d6 Nov 2026$5.5525/25$13,875$59,464$59,46454%hist 70%95%hist 89%68%+$7,641-$590,377374.8%14.7mo$-718,212 (vs do-nothing $-386,200)
$13914d13 Nov 2026$7.6525/25$19,125$40,982$40,98253%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$4,216-$587,627373.1%14.6mo$-715,462 (vs do-nothing $-383,450)
$1397d6 Nov 2026$6.0525/25$15,125$64,821$64,82152%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$7,860-$591,627375.6%14.7mo$-719,462 (vs do-nothing $-387,450)
$13814d13 Nov 2026$8.2025/25$20,500$43,929$43,92951%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$4,464-$588,752373.8%14.7mo$-716,587 (vs do-nothing $-384,575)
$1387d6 Nov 2026$6.5525/25$16,375$70,179$70,17949%100%hist 89%66%+$7,738-$592,877376.4%14.8mo$-720,712 (vs do-nothing $-388,700)
$13714d13 Nov 2026$8.7025/25$21,750$46,607$46,60749%100%hist 89%66%+$4,311-$590,002374.6%14.7mo$-717,837 (vs do-nothing $-385,825)
$1377d6 Nov 2026$6.9525/25$17,375$74,464$74,46447%100%hist 89%65%+$6,205-$594,377377.4%14.8mo$-722,212 (vs do-nothing $-390,200)
98 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$30021d20 Nov 2026$0.0325/25$75$107$10799+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$89-$204,177129.6%5.1mo$-332,012 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25014d13 Nov 2026$0.0225/25$50$107$10799+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$86-$329,202209.0%8.2mo$-457,037 (vs do-nothing $-125,025)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2207d6 Nov 2026$0.0225/25$50$214$21499+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$179-$404,202256.6%10.1mo$-532,037 (vs do-nothing $-200,025)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24014d13 Nov 2026$0.0525/25$125$268$26899+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$217-$354,127224.8%8.8mo$-481,962 (vs do-nothing $-149,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27021d20 Nov 2026$0.0425/25$100$143$14399+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$90-$279,152177.2%7.0mo$-406,987 (vs do-nothing $-74,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26021d20 Nov 2026$0.0525/25$125$179$17999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$129-$304,127193.1%7.6mo$-431,962 (vs do-nothing $-99,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25021d20 Nov 2026$0.0525/25$125$179$17999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$132-$329,127209.0%8.2mo$-456,962 (vs do-nothing $-124,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$207.507d6 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$107$10799+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$18-$435,477276.5%10.9mo$-563,312 (vs do-nothing $-231,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2057d6 Nov 2026$0.0325/25$75$321$32199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$218-$441,677280.4%11.0mo$-569,512 (vs do-nothing $-237,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23014d13 Nov 2026$0.0325/25$75$161$16199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$78-$379,177240.7%9.4mo$-507,012 (vs do-nothing $-175,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24021d20 Nov 2026$0.0725/25$175$250$25099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$174-$354,077224.8%8.8mo$-481,912 (vs do-nothing $-149,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24028d27 Nov 2026$0.1225/25$300$321$32199%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$256-$353,952224.7%8.8mo$-481,787 (vs do-nothing $-149,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2007d6 Nov 2026$0.0425/25$100$429$42999%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$292-$454,152288.4%11.3mo$-581,987 (vs do-nothing $-249,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22014d13 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$54$5499%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%$-63-$404,227256.7%10.1mo$-532,062 (vs do-nothing $-200,050)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$197.507d6 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$107$10799%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%$-49-$460,477292.4%11.5mo$-588,312 (vs do-nothing $-256,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23021d20 Nov 2026$0.1025/25$250$357$35799%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$257-$379,002240.6%9.4mo$-506,837 (vs do-nothing $-174,825)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1957d6 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$107$10799%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-72-$466,727296.3%11.6mo$-594,562 (vs do-nothing $-262,550)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21514d13 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$54$5499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-87-$416,727264.6%10.4mo$-544,562 (vs do-nothing $-212,550)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22521d20 Nov 2026$0.0625/25$150$214$21499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$95-$391,602248.6%9.8mo$-519,437 (vs do-nothing $-187,425)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$192.507d6 Nov 2026$0.0525/25$125$536$53699%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$329-$472,877300.2%11.8mo$-600,712 (vs do-nothing $-268,700)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21014d13 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$54$5499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-124-$429,227272.5%10.7mo$-557,062 (vs do-nothing $-225,050)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1907d6 Nov 2026$0.0525/25$125$536$53699%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$296-$479,127304.2%11.9mo$-606,962 (vs do-nothing $-274,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22021d20 Nov 2026$0.1225/25$300$429$42999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$282-$403,952256.5%10.1mo$-531,787 (vs do-nothing $-199,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$202.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.0725/25$175$375$37599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$206-$447,827284.3%11.2mo$-575,662 (vs do-nothing $-243,650)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$207.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.0125/25$25$54$5499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-149-$435,477276.5%10.9mo$-563,312 (vs do-nothing $-231,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$187.507d6 Nov 2026$0.0525/25$125$536$53699%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$253-$485,377308.2%12.1mo$-613,212 (vs do-nothing $-281,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21521d20 Nov 2026$0.1325/25$325$464$46499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$280-$416,427264.4%10.4mo$-544,262 (vs do-nothing $-212,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20514d13 Nov 2026$0.0625/25$150$321$32199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$90-$441,602280.4%11.0mo$-569,437 (vs do-nothing $-237,425)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20014d13 Nov 2026$0.1025/25$250$536$53699%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$322-$454,002288.3%11.3mo$-581,837 (vs do-nothing $-249,825)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$197.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.0225/25$50$107$10799%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%$-114-$460,452292.4%11.5mo$-588,287 (vs do-nothing $-256,275)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1857d6 Nov 2026$0.0725/25$175$750$75099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$413-$491,577312.1%12.3mo$-619,412 (vs do-nothing $-287,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21021d20 Nov 2026$0.1925/25$475$679$67999%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$440-$428,777272.2%10.7mo$-556,612 (vs do-nothing $-224,600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$182.507d6 Nov 2026$0.1325/25$325$1,393$1,39398%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$984-$497,677316.0%12.4mo$-625,512 (vs do-nothing $-293,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22528d27 Nov 2026$0.1225/25$300$321$32198%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$43-$391,452248.5%9.8mo$-519,287 (vs do-nothing $-187,275)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19514d13 Nov 2026$0.0325/25$75$161$16198%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%$-186-$466,677296.3%11.6mo$-594,512 (vs do-nothing $-262,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1807d6 Nov 2026$0.1425/25$350$1,500$1,50098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$996-$503,902319.9%12.6mo$-631,737 (vs do-nothing $-299,725)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20521d20 Nov 2026$0.2325/25$575$821$82198%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$506-$441,177280.1%11.0mo$-569,012 (vs do-nothing $-237,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22028d27 Nov 2026$0.2025/25$500$536$53698%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$218-$403,752256.4%10.1mo$-531,587 (vs do-nothing $-199,575)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$192.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.0625/25$150$321$32198%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%$-111-$472,852300.2%11.8mo$-600,687 (vs do-nothing $-268,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21028d27 Nov 2026$0.1825/25$450$482$48298%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$168-$428,802272.3%10.7mo$-556,637 (vs do-nothing $-224,625)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18514d13 Nov 2026$0.2025/25$500$1,071$1,07198%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$715-$491,252311.9%12.2mo$-619,087 (vs do-nothing $-287,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$202.5021d20 Nov 2026$0.2425/25$600$857$85798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$492-$447,402284.1%11.2mo$-575,237 (vs do-nothing $-243,225)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.507d6 Nov 2026$0.1025/25$250$1,071$1,07198%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$437-$510,252324.0%12.7mo$-638,087 (vs do-nothing $-306,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20021d20 Nov 2026$0.3025/25$750$1,071$1,07198%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$647-$453,502287.9%11.3mo$-581,337 (vs do-nothing $-249,325)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$197.5021d20 Nov 2026$0.3425/25$850$1,214$1,21497%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$719-$459,652291.8%11.5mo$-587,487 (vs do-nothing $-255,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1757d6 Nov 2026$0.2025/25$500$2,143$2,14397%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$1,329-$516,252327.8%12.9mo$-644,087 (vs do-nothing $-312,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19014d13 Nov 2026$0.2525/25$625$1,339$1,33997%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$700-$478,627303.9%11.9mo$-606,462 (vs do-nothing $-274,450)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19521d20 Nov 2026$0.3425/25$850$1,214$1,21497%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$634-$465,902295.8%11.6mo$-593,737 (vs do-nothing $-261,725)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$192.5021d20 Nov 2026$0.2825/25$700$1,000$1,00097%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$319-$472,302299.9%11.8mo$-600,137 (vs do-nothing $-268,125)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$182.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.2825/25$700$1,500$1,50096%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$586-$497,302315.7%12.4mo$-625,137 (vs do-nothing $-293,125)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20028d27 Nov 2026$0.5025/25$1,250$1,339$1,33996%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$589-$453,002287.6%11.3mo$-580,837 (vs do-nothing $-248,825)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19021d20 Nov 2026$0.4825/25$1,200$1,714$1,71496%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$912-$478,052303.5%11.9mo$-605,887 (vs do-nothing $-273,875)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19528d27 Nov 2026$0.5825/25$1,450$1,554$1,55496%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$827-$465,302295.4%11.6mo$-593,137 (vs do-nothing $-261,125)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1707d6 Nov 2026$0.3025/25$750$3,214$3,21496%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$1,801-$528,502335.6%13.2mo$-656,337 (vs do-nothing $-324,325)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18014d13 Nov 2026$0.4525/25$1,125$2,411$2,41196%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$1,271-$503,127319.4%12.5mo$-630,962 (vs do-nothing $-298,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$187.5021d20 Nov 2026$0.5625/25$1,400$2,000$2,00096%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$1,052-$484,102307.4%12.1mo$-611,937 (vs do-nothing $-279,925)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19028d27 Nov 2026$0.7225/25$1,800$1,929$1,92995%hist 95%10%hist 4%95%+$1,003-$477,452303.1%11.9mo$-605,287 (vs do-nothing $-273,275)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18521d20 Nov 2026$0.6225/25$1,550$2,214$2,21495%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$1,093-$490,202311.2%12.2mo$-618,037 (vs do-nothing $-286,025)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$167.507d6 Nov 2026$0.3525/25$875$3,750$3,75095%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$1,845-$534,627339.4%13.3mo$-662,462 (vs do-nothing $-330,450)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.5025/25$1,250$2,679$2,67995%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$1,205-$509,252323.3%12.7mo$-637,087 (vs do-nothing $-305,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$182.5021d20 Nov 2026$0.7625/25$1,900$2,714$2,71494%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$1,384-$496,102315.0%12.4mo$-623,937 (vs do-nothing $-291,925)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17514d13 Nov 2026$0.5725/25$1,425$3,054$3,05494%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$1,369-$515,327327.2%12.8mo$-643,162 (vs do-nothing $-311,150)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18528d27 Nov 2026$0.9525/25$2,375$2,545$2,54594%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$1,282-$489,377310.7%12.2mo$-617,212 (vs do-nothing $-285,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1657d6 Nov 2026$0.4425/25$1,100$4,714$4,71494%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$2,117-$540,652343.3%13.5mo$-668,487 (vs do-nothing $-336,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18021d20 Nov 2026$0.8625/25$2,150$3,071$3,07194%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$1,490-$502,102318.8%12.5mo$-629,937 (vs do-nothing $-297,925)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$172.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.6725/25$1,675$3,589$3,58993%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$1,500-$521,327331.0%13.0mo$-649,162 (vs do-nothing $-317,150)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.5021d20 Nov 2026$1.0025/25$2,500$3,571$3,57193%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$1,688-$508,002322.5%12.7mo$-635,837 (vs do-nothing $-303,825)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18028d27 Nov 2026$1.2625/25$3,150$3,375$3,37592%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$1,601-$501,102318.2%12.5mo$-628,937 (vs do-nothing $-296,925)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$162.507d6 Nov 2026$0.5825/25$1,450$6,214$6,21492%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$2,643-$546,552347.0%13.6mo$-674,387 (vs do-nothing $-342,375)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17014d13 Nov 2026$0.8525/25$2,125$4,554$4,55492%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$1,922-$527,127334.7%13.1mo$-654,962 (vs do-nothing $-322,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17521d20 Nov 2026$1.1725/25$2,925$4,179$4,17992%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$1,931-$513,827326.2%12.8mo$-641,662 (vs do-nothing $-309,650)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$167.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.9925/25$2,475$5,304$5,30491%hist 95%19%hist 13%92%+$2,300-$533,027338.4%13.3mo$-660,862 (vs do-nothing $-328,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$172.5021d20 Nov 2026$1.3225/25$3,300$4,714$4,71491%hist 95%20%hist 13%91%+$2,026-$519,702330.0%13.0mo$-647,537 (vs do-nothing $-315,525)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1607d6 Nov 2026$0.7225/25$1,800$7,714$7,71490%hist 95%20%hist 23%91%+$2,781-$552,452350.8%13.8mo$-680,287 (vs do-nothing $-348,275)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17528d27 Nov 2026$1.6025/25$4,000$4,286$4,28690%hist 95%21%hist 23%91%+$1,759-$512,752325.6%12.8mo$-640,587 (vs do-nothing $-308,575)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16514d13 Nov 2026$1.1725/25$2,925$6,268$6,26889%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$2,465-$538,827342.1%13.4mo$-666,662 (vs do-nothing $-334,650)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17021d20 Nov 2026$1.5925/25$3,975$5,679$5,67989%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$2,457-$525,277333.5%13.1mo$-653,112 (vs do-nothing $-321,100)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$167.5021d20 Nov 2026$1.8025/25$4,500$6,429$6,42988%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$2,562-$531,002337.1%13.2mo$-658,837 (vs do-nothing $-326,825)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$157.507d6 Nov 2026$0.9625/25$2,400$10,286$10,28688%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$3,464-$558,102354.4%13.9mo$-685,937 (vs do-nothing $-353,925)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17028d27 Nov 2026$2.1525/25$5,375$5,759$5,75988%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$2,377-$523,877332.6%13.1mo$-651,712 (vs do-nothing $-319,700)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$162.5014d13 Nov 2026$1.4225/25$3,550$7,607$7,60787%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$2,487-$544,452345.7%13.6mo$-672,287 (vs do-nothing $-340,275)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16521d20 Nov 2026$2.1525/25$5,375$7,679$7,67986%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$3,030-$536,377340.6%13.4mo$-664,212 (vs do-nothing $-332,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16014d13 Nov 2026$1.8025/25$4,500$9,643$9,64385%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$3,242-$549,752349.0%13.7mo$-677,587 (vs do-nothing $-345,575)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1557d6 Nov 2026$1.2625/25$3,150$13,500$13,50085%hist 86%31%hist 30%86%+$4,096-$563,602357.8%14.0mo$-691,437 (vs do-nothing $-359,425)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16528d27 Nov 2026$2.7125/25$6,775$7,259$7,25984%hist 86%33%hist 30%86%+$2,528-$534,977339.7%13.3mo$-662,812 (vs do-nothing $-330,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$162.5021d20 Nov 2026$2.4725/25$6,175$8,821$8,82184%hist 86%33%hist 30%86%+$3,226-$541,827344.0%13.5mo$-669,662 (vs do-nothing $-337,650)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$157.5014d13 Nov 2026$2.1225/25$5,300$11,357$11,35782%hist 86%37%hist 30%85%+$3,354-$555,202352.5%13.8mo$-683,037 (vs do-nothing $-351,025)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16021d20 Nov 2026$2.8825/25$7,200$10,286$10,28682%hist 86%38%hist 30%85%+$3,544-$547,052347.3%13.6mo$-674,887 (vs do-nothing $-342,875)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$152.507d6 Nov 2026$1.6525/25$4,125$17,679$17,67981%hist 86%39%hist 30%84%+$4,793-$568,877361.2%14.2mo$-696,712 (vs do-nothing $-364,700)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16028d27 Nov 2026$3.6025/25$9,000$9,643$9,64380%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$2,942-$545,252346.2%13.6mo$-673,087 (vs do-nothing $-341,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15514d13 Nov 2026$2.5325/25$6,325$13,554$13,55479%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$3,560-$560,427355.8%14.0mo$-688,262 (vs do-nothing $-356,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$157.5021d20 Nov 2026$3.3525/25$8,375$11,964$11,96479%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$3,840-$552,127350.6%13.8mo$-679,962 (vs do-nothing $-347,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15521d20 Nov 2026$3.9025/25$9,750$13,929$13,92977%hist 83%49%hist 40%81%+$4,144-$557,002353.7%13.9mo$-684,837 (vs do-nothing $-352,825)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$152.5014d13 Nov 2026$3.0025/25$7,500$16,071$16,07176%hist 83%50%hist 40%80%+$3,625-$565,502359.0%14.1mo$-693,337 (vs do-nothing $-361,325)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15528d27 Nov 2026$4.7025/25$11,750$12,589$12,58975%hist 83%54%hist 44%80%+$3,270-$555,002352.4%13.8mo$-682,837 (vs do-nothing $-350,825)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15014d13 Nov 2026$3.6525/25$9,125$19,554$19,55472%hist 83%58%hist 44%78%+$4,117-$570,127362.0%14.2mo$-697,962 (vs do-nothing $-365,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15021d20 Nov 2026$5.2025/25$13,000$18,571$18,57170%hist 83%63%hist 54%77%+$4,474-$566,252359.5%14.1mo$-694,087 (vs do-nothing $-362,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15028d27 Nov 2026$6.1025/25$15,250$16,339$16,33969%hist 66%66%hist 54%76%+$3,530-$564,002358.1%14.1mo$-691,837 (vs do-nothing $-359,825)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-31 03:19