20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.24 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,688/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,484/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-36,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 18 × $80 | 93% | $5,400 | $3,469 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 17 × $79 | 73% | $5,667 | $609 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $82.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 9.5% | 99% | 1% | $100 | $1,500 | -$3,900 | $25,383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $82.50 9.5% OTM over spot $75.35 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $100 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $82.60) 99% EV / mo +$1,464 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.3-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-10,235 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,667 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $88 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82.50 is $13 below CC-SS $95.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $82.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,600 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $82.50): -$25,383 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,383 (+$11,217 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,383 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,000, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,820, position total $-25,018 (+$11,582 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $80.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.8% | 95% | 11% | $240 | $3,600 | -$1,800 | $23,346 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $80.50 6.8% OTM over spot $75.35 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.22 mid) = $240 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $80.72) 95% EV / mo +$2,812 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.5] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $447 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,867 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $86 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.86/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 124 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $82 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80.50 is $15 below CC-SS $95.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $80.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,600 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $80.50): -$23,346 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93.50): -$677 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,023 (+$12,577 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,383 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,640, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,696, position total $-23,874 (+$12,726 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $80 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.2% | 93% | 6% | $360 | $5,400 | — | $27,074 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $80 6.2% OTM over spot $75.35 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $360 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $80.22) 94% EV / mo +$4,031 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-5.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,344 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,981 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $86 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 165 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $81 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $15 below CC-SS $95.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $80.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,600 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $80): -$27,074 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$338 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,413 (+$9,187 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,383 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,030, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,968, position total $-27,156 (+$9,444 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $80 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.2% | 93% | 15% | $400 | $6,000 | +$600 | $30,083 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $80 6.2% OTM over spot $75.35 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $400 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $80.22) 94% EV / mo +$4,479 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,283 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,201 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $86 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.25–$2.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 168 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $81 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $15 below CC-SS $95.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $80.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,600 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $80): -$30,083 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,083 (+$6,517 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,383 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,700, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,520, position total $-29,718 (+$6,882 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $78 | 10 Jul | 2d | 3.5% | 83% | 34% | $750 | $11,250 | +$5,850 | $25,112 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $78 3.5% OTM over spot $75.35 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.60 mid) = $750 credit for the 2d cycle → $11,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $78.60) 88% EV / mo +$7,698 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.5-4.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~15.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,417 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,104 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $86 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.75/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.35–$2.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 579 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $79 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $17 below CC-SS $95.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $78.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,600 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $78): -$25,112 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $93.50): -$846 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,958 (+$10,642 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,383 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,575, the opportunity cost of earning $11,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,690, position total $-25,863 (+$10,737 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $84.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.1% | 92% | 17% | $450 | $1,500 | -$4,167 | $18,884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $84.50 12.1% OTM over spot $75.35 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.40 mid) = $450 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $84.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $84.90) 92% EV / mo +$647 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,209 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,797 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $86 @ 71% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.34/sh now → $2.36 mid-life (likely $1.83–$3.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 329 simulated challenges: the $84 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $86 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $84.50 is $11 below CC-SS $95.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $84.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,600 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $84.50): -$18,884 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$338 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,223 (+$17,377 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,383 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,840, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,778, position total $-18,966 (+$17,634 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $84 | 17 Jul | 9d | 11.5% | 91% | 19% | $600 | $2,000 | -$3,667 | $21,883 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $84 11.5% OTM over spot $75.35 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.57 mid) = $600 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $84) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $84.58) 92% EV / mo +$886 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-4.9] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-392 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,064 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $87 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.30/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $1.84–$3.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 345 simulated challenges: the $84 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $85 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $84 is $11 below CC-SS $95.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $84.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,600 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $84): -$21,883 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,883 (+$14,717 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,383 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,500, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,320, position total $-21,518 (+$15,082 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $81.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 8.2% | 84% | 33% | $1,100 | $3,667 | -$2,000 | $26,383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $81.50 8.2% OTM over spot $75.35 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.68 mid) = $1,100 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,667/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $82.17) 86% EV / mo +$1,209 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.5] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,613 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,292 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $84 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.11/sh now → $2.20 mid-life (likely $1.96–$3.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 697 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $83 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81.50 is $14 below CC-SS $95.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $82.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,600 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $81.50): -$26,383 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,383 (+$10,217 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,383 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,000, the opportunity cost of earning $3,667/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,820, position total $-26,018 (+$10,582 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $79 | 17 Jul | 9d | 4.8% | 73% | 43% | $1,700 | $5,667 | — | $25,910 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $79 4.8% OTM over spot $75.35 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.15 mid) = $1,700 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,667/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $80.15) 79% EV / mo +$1,247 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.6] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~9.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,618 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,810 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $84 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.92/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $2.27–$3.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,297 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $80 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $16 below CC-SS $95.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $80.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,600 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $79): -$25,910 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $93.50): -$507 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,418 (+$10,182 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,383 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,035, the opportunity cost of earning $5,667/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,032, position total $-26,215 (+$10,385 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $77 | 17 Jul | 9d | 2.2% | 62% | 78% | $3,300 | $11,000 | +$5,333 | $33,183 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $77 2.2% OTM over spot $75.35 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.80 mid) = $3,300 credit for the 9d cycle → $11,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $78.80) 72% EV / mo +$1,978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.4-4.2] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~16.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,480 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$624 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $86 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.77/sh now → $1.96 mid-life (likely $2.55–$3.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,933 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $78 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $18 below CC-SS $95.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $78.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,600 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $77): -$33,183 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,183 (+$3,417 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,383 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,800, the opportunity cost of earning $11,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,620, position total $-32,818 (+$3,782 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.920 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$36,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,383
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 18/20 | $5,400 | $3,935 | 93% | 94% | +$4,031 | -$27,074 | 47.7% | $-27,413 (vs do-nothing $-24,030) |
| $79 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 11/20 | $5,775 | $4,375 | 88% | 90% | +$3,888 | -$17,480 | 30.8% | $-19,003 (vs do-nothing $-15,620) |
| $78 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 8/20 | $6,000 | $4,629 | 83% | 88% | +$4,106 | -$13,393 | 23.6% | $-15,423 (vs do-nothing $-12,040) |
| $79 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 17/20 | $5,667 | $4,211 | 73% | 79% | +$1,247 | -$25,910 | 45.6% | $-26,418 (vs do-nothing $-23,035) |
| $77 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 5/20 | $6,000 | $4,657 | 73% | 83% | +$3,469 | -$8,721 | 15.4% | $-11,258 (vs do-nothing $-7,875) |
| $79 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 19/20 | $5,522 | $4,047 | 70% | 77% | +$1,378 | -$27,913 | 49.1% | $-28,083 (vs do-nothing $-24,700) |
| $78 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 13/20 | $5,633 | $4,215 | 68% | 76% | +$1,152 | -$20,724 | 36.5% | $-21,908 (vs do-nothing $-18,525) |
| $78 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 16/20 | $5,700 | $4,254 | 66% | 75% | +$1,319 | -$24,546 | 43.2% | $-25,223 (vs do-nothing $-21,840) |
| $77 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 10/20 | $5,500 | $4,110 | 62% | 72% | +$989 | -$16,591 | 29.2% | $-18,283 (vs do-nothing $-14,900) |
| $77 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 13/20 | $5,484 | $4,066 | 61% | 72% | +$1,060 | -$20,789 | 36.6% | $-21,973 (vs do-nothing $-18,590) |
| $76 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 4/20 | $6,900 | $5,566 | 60% | 76% | +$3,025 | -$7,237 | 12.7% | $-9,943 (vs do-nothing $-6,560) |
| $76.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 13/20 | $5,606 | $4,188 | 58% | 71% | +$694 | -$21,374 | 37.6% | $-22,558 (vs do-nothing $-19,175) |
| $76 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 8/20 | $5,467 | $4,095 | 56% | 70% | +$813 | -$13,753 | 24.2% | $-15,783 (vs do-nothing $-12,400) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 11/20 | $5,569 | $4,169 | 55% | 70% | +$966 | -$18,195 | 32.0% | $-19,718 (vs do-nothing $-16,335) |
| $75 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 9/20 | $5,400 | $4,019 | 50% | 68% | +$822 | -$15,337 | 27.0% | $-17,198 (vs do-nothing $-13,815) |
| $75 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 7/20 | $6,067 | $4,705 | 49% | 67% | +$899 | -$12,349 | 21.7% | $-14,548 (vs do-nothing $-11,165) |
| $75 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 3/20 | $7,425 | $6,100 | 46% | 70% | +$2,410 | -$5,577 | 9.8% | $-8,453 (vs do-nothing $-5,070) |
| $74 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 8/20 | $5,550 | $4,179 | 45% | 65% | +$662 | -$14,033 | 24.7% | $-16,063 (vs do-nothing $-12,680) |
| $74 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 6/20 | $6,200 | $4,847 | 43% | 64% | +$670 | -$10,885 | 19.2% | $-13,253 (vs do-nothing $-9,870) |
| $74 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 2/20 | $6,750 | $5,435 | 32% | 65% | +$1,498 | -$3,798 | 6.7% | $-6,843 (vs do-nothing $-3,460) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.