20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.51 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,900/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,484/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-38,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 17 × $79 | 95% | $5,100 | $3,392 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 20 × $79 | 78% | $5,000 | $-207 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $81 | 10 Jul | 2d | 8.8% | 99% | 2% | $100 | $1,500 | -$3,600 | $28,914 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $81 8.8% OTM over spot $74.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $100 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $81.22) 99% EV / mo +$1,448 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.6-5.1] median · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-9,252 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,628 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $87 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.93/sh now → $1.36 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81 is $15 below CC-SS $95.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $81.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,600 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $81): -$28,914 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,914 (+$9,686 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,100, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,900, position total $-28,498 (+$10,102 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 11 × $79 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.1% | 95% | 9% | $220 | $3,300 | -$1,800 | $17,938 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $79 6.1% OTM over spot $74.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.30 mid) = $220 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $79.30) 96% EV / mo +$2,953 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.6-5.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $433 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,206 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $85 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.83/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 122 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $80 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $17 below CC-SS $95.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $79.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,600 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $79): -$17,938 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $93): -$2,166 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,104 (+$18,496 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,290, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,180, position total $-19,688 (+$18,912 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $79 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.1% | 95% | 5% | $340 | $5,100 | — | $27,722 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $79 6.1% OTM over spot $74.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.30 mid) = $340 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $79.30) 96% EV / mo +$4,563 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.8-4.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,604 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,864 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $85 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.83/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.35–$2.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 155 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $80 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $17 below CC-SS $95.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $79.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,600 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $79): -$27,722 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $93): -$722 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,444 (+$10,156 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,630, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,460, position total $-28,028 (+$10,572 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $78 | 10 Jul | 2d | 4.8% | 91% | 18% | $665 | $9,975 | +$4,875 | $32,598 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $78 4.8% OTM over spot $74.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.45 mid) = $665 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $78.45) 93% EV / mo +$8,263 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,532 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,735 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $84 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.26 mid-life (likely $1.27–$2.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 293 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $79 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $18 below CC-SS $95.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $78.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,600 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $78): -$32,598 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $93): -$241 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,839 (+$5,761 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,025, the opportunity cost of earning $9,975/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,835, position total $-32,423 (+$6,177 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $78 | 10 Jul | 2d | 4.8% | 91% | 18% | $700 | $10,500 | +$5,400 | $34,314 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $78 4.8% OTM over spot $74.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.45 mid) = $700 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $78.45) 93% EV / mo +$8,698 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-5.2] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,596 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,826 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $84 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.26 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 313 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $79 (overshoots $1.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $18 below CC-SS $95.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $78.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,600 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $78): -$34,314 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,314 (+$4,286 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,500, the opportunity cost of earning $10,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,300, position total $-33,898 (+$4,702 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $83.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.1% | 92% | 17% | $450 | $1,500 | -$3,500 | $21,162 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $83.50 12.1% OTM over spot $74.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.42 mid) = $450 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $83.92) 92% EV / mo +$632 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.8] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,827 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,066 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $85 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.55/sh now → $2.51 mid-life (likely $1.81–$3.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 292 simulated challenges: the $84 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $85 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83.50 is $12 below CC-SS $95.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $83.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,600 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $83.50): -$21,162 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93): -$481 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,644 (+$16,956 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,830, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,650, position total $-21,228 (+$17,372 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $80 | 17 Jul | 9d | 7.4% | 82% | 37% | $990 | $3,300 | -$1,700 | $26,922 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $80 7.4% OTM over spot $74.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.73 mid) = $990 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $80.72) 85% EV / mo +$705 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-5.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.1 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~5.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,562 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,157 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $82 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.26/sh now → $2.30 mid-life (likely $2.29–$3.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 758 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $81 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $16 below CC-SS $95.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $80.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,600 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $80): -$26,922 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93): -$481 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,404 (+$11,196 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,590, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,410, position total $-26,988 (+$11,612 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $79 | 17 Jul | 9d | 6.1% | 78% | 35% | $1,500 | $5,000 | — | $31,514 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $79 6.1% OTM over spot $74.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.93 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $79.92) 82% EV / mo +$1,108 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.6-4.8] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~7.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,738 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,993 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $82 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.18/sh now → $2.25 mid-life (likely $2.23–$3.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,043 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $80 (overshoots $1.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $17 below CC-SS $95.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $79.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,600 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $79): -$31,514 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,514 (+$7,086 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,700, the opportunity cost of earning $5,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,500, position total $-31,098 (+$7,502 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $76 | 17 Jul | 9d | 2.1% | 62% | 79% | $3,040 | $10,133 | +$5,133 | $34,023 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $76 2.1% OTM over spot $74.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.73 mid) = $3,040 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,133/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $77.72) 72% EV / mo +$1,554 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.6-4.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~17.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,833 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$911 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $84 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.94/sh now → $2.08 mid-life (likely $2.73–$3.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,913 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $77 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76 is $20 below CC-SS $95.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $77.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,600 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $76): -$34,023 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $93): -$241 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,264 (+$4,336 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,450, the opportunity cost of earning $10,133/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,260, position total $-33,848 (+$4,752 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.917 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$38,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,814
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $79 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 17/20 | $5,100 | $3,672 | 95% | 96% | +$4,563 | -$27,722 | 48.8% | $-28,444 (vs do-nothing $-23,630) |
| $78 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 10/20 | $5,250 | $3,954 | 91% | 93% | +$4,349 | -$17,157 | 30.2% | $-19,564 (vs do-nothing $-14,750) |
| $77 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 7/20 | $5,250 | $4,010 | 83% | 88% | +$3,670 | -$12,605 | 22.2% | $-15,734 (vs do-nothing $-10,920) |
| $79 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 20/20 | $5,000 | $3,516 | 78% | 82% | +$1,108 | -$31,514 | 55.5% | $-31,514 (vs do-nothing $-26,700) |
| $78 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 16/20 | $5,067 | $3,658 | 73% | 79% | +$899 | -$26,491 | 46.6% | $-27,454 (vs do-nothing $-22,640) |
| $76 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 5/20 | $5,625 | $4,422 | 72% | 82% | +$3,132 | -$9,378 | 16.5% | $-12,989 (vs do-nothing $-8,175) |
| $78 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 18/20 | $5,062 | $3,616 | 70% | 77% | +$1,101 | -$28,812 | 50.7% | $-29,294 (vs do-nothing $-24,480) |
| $77 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 12/20 | $5,000 | $3,666 | 68% | 76% | +$860 | -$20,708 | 36.5% | $-22,634 (vs do-nothing $-17,820) |
| $77 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 15/20 | $5,062 | $3,672 | 65% | 75% | +$917 | -$25,060 | 44.1% | $-26,264 (vs do-nothing $-21,450) |
| $76.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 14/20 | $5,250 | $3,879 | 63% | 74% | +$930 | -$23,810 | 41.9% | $-25,254 (vs do-nothing $-20,440) |
| $76 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 10/20 | $5,333 | $4,037 | 62% | 72% | +$818 | -$17,907 | 31.5% | $-20,314 (vs do-nothing $-15,500) |
| $76 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 13/20 | $5,362 | $4,010 | 60% | 72% | +$895 | -$22,499 | 39.6% | $-24,184 (vs do-nothing $-19,370) |
| $75 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 4/20 | $6,600 | $5,416 | 59% | 76% | +$2,697 | -$7,763 | 13.7% | $-11,614 (vs do-nothing $-6,800) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $75 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 8/20 | $5,333 | $4,074 | 55% | 69% | +$670 | -$14,806 | 26.1% | $-17,694 (vs do-nothing $-12,880) |
| $75 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 10/20 | $4,969 | $3,672 | 55% | 70% | +$742 | -$17,857 | 31.4% | $-20,264 (vs do-nothing $-15,450) |
| $74 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 9/20 | $5,231 | $3,954 | 50% | 67% | +$604 | -$16,566 | 29.2% | $-19,214 (vs do-nothing $-14,400) |
| $74 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 6/20 | $5,000 | $3,779 | 48% | 67% | +$553 | -$11,404 | 20.1% | $-14,774 (vs do-nothing $-9,960) |
| $73.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 9/20 | $5,400 | $4,122 | 47% | 67% | +$319 | -$16,926 | 29.8% | $-19,574 (vs do-nothing $-14,760) |
| $73 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 8/20 | $5,550 | $4,291 | 44% | 65% | +$606 | -$15,046 | 26.5% | $-17,934 (vs do-nothing $-13,120) |
| $74 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 3/20 | $7,200 | $6,035 | 44% | 70% | +$2,081 | -$5,972 | 10.5% | $-10,064 (vs do-nothing $-5,250) |
| $73 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/20 | $5,000 | $3,797 | 42% | 64% | +$363 | -$9,753 | 17.2% | $-13,364 (vs do-nothing $-8,550) |
| $73.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 2/20 | $5,700 | $4,554 | 36% | 67% | +$1,358 | -$4,021 | 7.1% | $-8,354 (vs do-nothing $-3,540) |
| $73 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 2/20 | $6,600 | $5,454 | 29% | 65% | +$1,206 | -$4,061 | 7.2% | $-8,394 (vs do-nothing $-3,580) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.