20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,940/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,604/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-40,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 20 × $77 | 77% | $5,625 | $530 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $81 | 17 Jul | 8d | 10.9% | 91% | 18% | $450 | $1,688 | -$3,938 | $25,223 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $81 10.9% OTM over spot $73.06 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.30 mid) = $450 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $81.30) 92% EV / mo +$780 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [1.9-5.9] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,407 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,486 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $83 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.09/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $1.69–$2.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 305 simulated challenges: the $81 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $82 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81 is $14 below CC-SS $95.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $81.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,000 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $81): -$25,223 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $89): -$1,243 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,465 (+$13,535 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,425 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,040, the opportunity cost of earning $1,688/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.09 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,312, position total $-26,035 (+$13,965 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $78 | 17 Jul | 8d | 6.8% | 82% | 37% | $990 | $3,712 | -$1,912 | $30,083 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $78 6.8% OTM over spot $73.06 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.68 mid) = $990 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,712/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $78.67) 85% EV / mo +$1,143 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.7-4.7] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,773 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,658 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $81 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.87/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $1.97–$3.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 801 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $79 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $17 below CC-SS $95.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $78.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,000 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $78): -$30,083 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $89): -$1,243 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,325 (+$8,675 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,425 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,900, the opportunity cost of earning $3,712/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.09 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,172, position total $-30,895 (+$9,105 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $77 | 17 Jul | 8d | 5.4% | 77% | 34% | $1,500 | $5,625 | — | $35,025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $77 5.4% OTM over spot $73.06 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.90 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $77.90) 82% EV / mo +$1,605 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [2.0-5.3] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,330 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,449 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $81 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.79/sh now → $1.97 mid-life (likely $2.08–$3.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,032 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $78 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $18 below CC-SS $95.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $77.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,000 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $77): -$35,025 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,025 (+$4,975 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,425 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,600, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.09 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,680, position total $-34,595 (+$5,405 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $74 | 17 Jul | 8d | 1.3% | 58% | 86% | $3,060 | $11,475 | +$5,850 | $35,213 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $74 1.3% OTM over spot $73.06 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.85 mid) = $3,060 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,475/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $74) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $75.85) 71% EV / mo +$2,091 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-5.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~23.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,249 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$221 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $83 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.58/sh now → $1.82 mid-life (likely $2.45–$3.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,096 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $75 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $74 is $21 below CC-SS $95.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.70 collected) or spot ≥ $75.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $74)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,000 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $74): -$35,213 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $89): -$1,243 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,455 (+$3,545 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,425 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,030, the opportunity cost of earning $11,475/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.09 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,302, position total $-36,025 (+$3,975 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.901 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$40,000 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,425
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 20/20 | $5,625 | $4,021 | 77% | 82% | +$1,605 | -$35,025 | 61.7% | $-35,025 (vs do-nothing $-22,600) |
| $76 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 15/20 | $5,625 | $4,071 | 72% | 78% | +$1,421 | -$27,394 | 48.2% | $-30,500 (vs do-nothing $-18,075) |
| $76.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 20/20 | $5,600 | $3,996 | 70% | 77% | +$1,294 | -$34,725 | 61.1% | $-34,725 (vs do-nothing $-22,300) |
| $76 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 18/20 | $5,760 | $4,176 | 68% | 76% | +$1,370 | -$31,793 | 56.0% | $-33,035 (vs do-nothing $-20,610) |
| $75 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 12/20 | $5,850 | $4,326 | 65% | 74% | +$1,223 | -$22,755 | 40.1% | $-27,725 (vs do-nothing $-15,300) |
| $75 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 15/20 | $5,850 | $4,296 | 63% | 73% | +$1,199 | -$27,469 | 48.4% | $-30,575 (vs do-nothing $-18,150) |
| $74 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 9/20 | $5,738 | $4,243 | 58% | 71% | +$1,046 | -$17,606 | 31.0% | $-24,440 (vs do-nothing $-12,015) |
| $74 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 13/20 | $5,850 | $4,316 | 57% | 70% | +$792 | -$24,716 | 43.5% | $-29,065 (vs do-nothing $-16,640) |
| $73.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 11/20 | $5,610 | $4,096 | 54% | 69% | +$839 | -$21,134 | 37.2% | $-26,725 (vs do-nothing $-14,300) |
| $73 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 10/20 | $5,600 | $4,096 | 52% | 68% | +$782 | -$19,463 | 34.3% | $-25,675 (vs do-nothing $-13,250) |
| $73 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 7/20 | $5,644 | $4,169 | 51% | 68% | +$809 | -$14,079 | 24.8% | $-22,155 (vs do-nothing $-9,730) |
| $72 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 9/20 | $5,940 | $4,446 | 46% | 65% | +$645 | -$17,966 | 31.6% | $-24,800 (vs do-nothing $-12,375) |
| $72 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 6/20 | $6,075 | $4,611 | 44% | 64% | +$707 | -$12,338 | 21.7% | $-21,035 (vs do-nothing $-8,610) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.