20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.87 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,360/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,551/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-37,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 14 × $77 | 69% | $4,200 | $-721 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 14 × $79 | 17 Jul | 8d | 6.2% | 80% | 41% | $420 | $1,575 | -$2,625 | $21,801 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $79 6.2% OTM over spot $74.41 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.68 mid) = $420 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $79.67) 83% EV / mo $-836 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.8-5.0] median · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,822 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,335 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $81 @ 70% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.78/sh now → $1.97 mid-life (likely $1.99–$3.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 918 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $80 (overshoots $1.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $16 below CC-SS $94.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $79.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,200 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $79): -$21,801 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $87.50): -$4,393 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,194 (+$11,006 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,644 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,550, the opportunity cost of earning $1,575/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,180, position total $-25,853 (+$11,347 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $78 | 17 Jul | 8d | 4.8% | 75% | 51% | $750 | $2,812 | -$1,388 | $24,558 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $78 4.8% OTM over spot $74.41 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.88 mid) = $750 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $78.88) 79% EV / mo $-772 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.8-5.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.1 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~10.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,169 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,127 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $80 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.71/sh now → $1.92 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,142 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $79 (overshoots $1.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $17 below CC-SS $94.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $78.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,200 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $78): -$24,558 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $87.50): -$3,661 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,219 (+$8,981 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,644 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,575, the opportunity cost of earning $2,812/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,750, position total $-27,878 (+$9,322 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 14 × $77 | 17 Jul | 8d | 3.5% | 69% | 50% | $1,120 | $4,200 | — | $23,901 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $77 3.5% OTM over spot $74.41 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.15 mid) = $1,120 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $78.15) 76% EV / mo $-388 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-4.8] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~13.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $822 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,496 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $80 @ 73% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.64/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $2.19–$3.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,505 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $78 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $18 below CC-SS $94.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $78.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,200 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $77): -$23,901 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $87.50): -$4,393 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,294 (+$8,906 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,644 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,650, the opportunity cost of earning $4,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,280, position total $-27,953 (+$9,247 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 16 × $75 | 17 Jul | 8d | 0.8% | 56% | 91% | $2,320 | $8,700 | +$4,500 | $29,475 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $75 0.8% OTM over spot $74.41 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.83 mid) = $2,320 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $76.83) 68% EV / mo $-724 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.7-4.9] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~27.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,914 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$515 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $82 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.51/sh now → $1.77 mid-life (likely $2.42–$3.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,173 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $76 (overshoots $1.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $20 below CC-SS $94.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $76.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,200 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $75): -$29,475 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $87.50): -$2,929 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,404 (+$4,796 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,644 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,760, the opportunity cost of earning $8,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,480, position total $-32,063 (+$5,137 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.909 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$37,200 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-14,644
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 18/20 | $4,320 | $2,789 | 71% | 77% | +$469 | -$28,210 | 49.7% | $-29,674 (vs do-nothing $-15,030) |
| $77 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 14/20 | $4,200 | $2,709 | 69% | 76% | $-388 | -$23,901 | 42.1% | $-28,294 (vs do-nothing $-13,650) |
| $77 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 15/20 | $4,350 | $2,849 | 66% | 74% | +$266 | -$24,633 | 43.4% | $-28,294 (vs do-nothing $-13,650) |
| $76.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 13/20 | $4,420 | $2,939 | 63% | 73% | +$444 | -$21,674 | 38.2% | $-26,799 (vs do-nothing $-12,155) |
| $76 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 11/20 | $4,331 | $2,870 | 63% | 72% | $-543 | -$19,604 | 34.5% | $-26,194 (vs do-nothing $-11,550) |
| $76 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 11/20 | $4,290 | $2,829 | 61% | 72% | +$522 | -$18,614 | 32.8% | $-25,204 (vs do-nothing $-10,560) |
| $75 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 8/20 | $4,350 | $2,919 | 56% | 68% | $-362 | -$14,738 | 25.9% | $-23,524 (vs do-nothing $-8,880) |
| $75 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 10/20 | $4,500 | $3,049 | 55% | 70% | +$242 | -$17,622 | 31.0% | $-24,944 (vs do-nothing $-10,300) |
| $74 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 9/20 | $4,500 | $3,059 | 50% | 66% | $-204 | -$16,535 | 29.1% | $-24,589 (vs do-nothing $-9,945) |
| $74 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 6/20 | $4,388 | $2,977 | 48% | 65% | $-222 | -$11,353 | 20.0% | $-21,604 (vs do-nothing $-6,960) |
| $73.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 8/20 | $4,320 | $2,889 | 47% | 65% | $-290 | -$14,938 | 26.3% | $-23,724 (vs do-nothing $-9,080) |
| $73 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 7/20 | $4,200 | $2,779 | 44% | 64% | $-232 | -$13,210 | 23.3% | $-22,729 (vs do-nothing $-8,085) |
| $73 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 5/20 | $4,312 | $2,912 | 41% | 62% | $-595 | -$9,786 | 17.2% | $-20,769 (vs do-nothing $-6,125) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.