20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.99 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,714/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,500/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-35,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 16 × $79 | 76% | $5,486 | $501 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 12 × $82 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.5% | 89% | 22% | $360 | $1,543 | -$3,943 | $15,228 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $82 8.5% OTM over spot $75.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.38 mid) = $360 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,543/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $82.38) 91% EV / mo +$751 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-5.3] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,784 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,020 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.80/sh now → $1.98 mid-life (likely $1.62–$2.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 451 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $83 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $13 below CC-SS $94.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $82.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,600 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $82): -$15,228 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $93.50): -$1,152 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,380 (+$19,220 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,880 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,500, the opportunity cost of earning $1,543/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,828, position total $-16,460 (+$19,140 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 14 × $80 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.8% | 81% | 38% | $840 | $3,600 | -$1,886 | $20,146 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $80 5.8% OTM over spot $75.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid) = $840 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $80.65) 85% EV / mo +$1,488 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-4.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,309 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,799 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.67/sh now → $1.89 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 836 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $15 below CC-SS $94.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $80.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,600 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $80): -$20,146 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $93.50): -$864 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,010 (+$14,590 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,880 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,130, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,346, position total $-20,988 (+$14,612 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $79 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.5% | 76% | 40% | $1,280 | $5,486 | — | $24,304 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $79 4.5% OTM over spot $75.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.88 mid) = $1,280 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,486/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $79.88) 81% EV / mo +$1,887 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.7-4.9] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~9.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,034 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,660 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $85 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.60/sh now → $1.84 mid-life (likely $2.03–$3.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,187 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $80 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $16 below CC-SS $94.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $79.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,600 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $79): -$24,304 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93.50): -$576 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,880 (+$10,720 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,880 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,000, the opportunity cost of earning $5,486/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,104, position total $-24,756 (+$10,844 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $77 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.9% | 62% | 77% | $2,565 | $10,993 | +$5,507 | $31,616 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $77 1.9% OTM over spot $75.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.50 mid) = $2,565 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,993/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $78.50) 73% EV / mo +$2,120 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.6-5.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~19.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,820 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$748 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $88 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.47/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $2.28–$3.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,789 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $78 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $18 below CC-SS $94.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $78.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,600 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $77): -$31,616 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $93.50): -$144 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,760 (+$3,840 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,880 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,880, the opportunity cost of earning $10,993/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,816, position total $-31,483 (+$4,117 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.918 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$35,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,880
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $79 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 16/20 | $5,486 | $4,014 | 76% | 81% | +$1,887 | -$24,304 | 42.8% | $-24,880 (vs do-nothing $-22,000) |
| $79 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 19/20 | $5,496 | $4,004 | 70% | 77% | +$1,074 | -$27,816 | 49.0% | $-27,960 (vs do-nothing $-25,080) |
| $78 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 13/20 | $5,571 | $4,121 | 70% | 77% | +$1,307 | -$20,787 | 36.6% | $-21,795 (vs do-nothing $-18,915) |
| $79 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 20/20 | $5,571 | $4,071 | 67% | 75% | +$1,022 | -$28,080 | 49.4% | $-28,080 (vs do-nothing $-25,200) |
| $78.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 19/20 | $5,564 | $4,071 | 65% | 74% | +$823 | -$27,436 | 48.3% | $-27,580 (vs do-nothing $-24,700) |
| $78 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 15/20 | $5,464 | $4,000 | 65% | 74% | +$1,015 | -$22,935 | 40.4% | $-23,655 (vs do-nothing $-20,775) |
| $78 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 18/20 | $5,400 | $3,914 | 63% | 72% | +$480 | -$26,802 | 47.2% | $-27,090 (vs do-nothing $-24,210) |
| $77 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 10/20 | $5,786 | $4,357 | 62% | 73% | +$1,116 | -$16,640 | 29.3% | $-18,080 (vs do-nothing $-15,200) |
| $77.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 16/20 | $5,486 | $4,014 | 61% | 72% | +$702 | -$24,144 | 42.5% | $-24,720 (vs do-nothing $-21,840) |
| $77 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 13/20 | $5,711 | $4,261 | 60% | 71% | +$853 | -$20,722 | 36.5% | $-21,730 (vs do-nothing $-18,850) |
| $77 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 15/20 | $5,464 | $4,000 | 59% | 70% | +$565 | -$23,160 | 40.8% | $-23,880 (vs do-nothing $-21,000) |
| $76.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 12/20 | $5,529 | $4,086 | 57% | 70% | +$519 | -$19,608 | 34.5% | $-20,760 (vs do-nothing $-17,880) |
| $76.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 13/20 | $5,386 | $3,936 | 56% | 70% | +$756 | -$20,267 | 35.7% | $-21,275 (vs do-nothing $-18,395) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 8/20 | $6,000 | $4,586 | 54% | 69% | +$839 | -$13,792 | 24.3% | $-15,520 (vs do-nothing $-12,640) |
| $76 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 10/20 | $5,357 | $3,929 | 54% | 69% | +$708 | -$16,490 | 29.0% | $-17,930 (vs do-nothing $-15,050) |
| $76 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 13/20 | $5,571 | $4,121 | 54% | 68% | +$531 | -$20,787 | 36.6% | $-21,795 (vs do-nothing $-18,915) |
| $75.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 13/20 | $5,757 | $4,307 | 52% | 67% | +$279 | -$21,307 | 37.5% | $-22,315 (vs do-nothing $-19,435) |
| $75 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 11/20 | $5,657 | $4,221 | 49% | 67% | +$628 | -$18,029 | 31.7% | $-19,325 (vs do-nothing $-16,445) |
| $75 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 9/20 | $5,786 | $4,364 | 48% | 66% | +$646 | -$15,291 | 26.9% | $-16,875 (vs do-nothing $-13,995) |
| $74.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 11/20 | $5,657 | $4,221 | 47% | 65% | +$212 | -$18,579 | 32.7% | $-19,875 (vs do-nothing $-16,995) |
| $75 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 6/20 | $5,786 | $4,386 | 47% | 65% | +$598 | -$10,644 | 18.7% | $-12,660 (vs do-nothing $-9,780) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.