20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.87 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,143/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,500/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-35,300 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 20 × $80 | 81% | $5,571 | $1,089 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 12 × $82 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.4% | 89% | 23% | $360 | $1,543 | -$4,029 | $15,087 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $82 8.4% OTM over spot $75.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.38 mid) = $360 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,543/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $82.38) 90% EV / mo +$617 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.2-4.9] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,733 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,000 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $87 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.78/sh now → $1.97 mid-life (likely $1.67–$2.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 456 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $83 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $13 below CC-SS $94.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $82.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,300 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $82): -$15,087 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $93.50): -$1,058 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,145 (+$19,155 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,645 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,500, the opportunity cost of earning $1,543/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,828, position total $-16,241 (+$19,059 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $81 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.1% | 85% | 30% | $900 | $3,857 | -$1,714 | $26,845 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $81 7.1% OTM over spot $75.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid) = $900 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $81.53) 87% EV / mo +$1,584 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-4.9] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,432 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,936 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.71/sh now → $1.92 mid-life (likely $1.79–$2.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 640 simulated challenges: the $81 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $82 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81 is $14 below CC-SS $94.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $81.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,300 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $81): -$26,845 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,845 (+$8,455 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,645 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,200, the opportunity cost of earning $3,857/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,080, position total $-26,533 (+$8,767 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $80 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.8% | 81% | 28% | $1,300 | $5,571 | — | $28,445 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $80 5.8% OTM over spot $75.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.73 mid) = $1,300 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $80.72) 84% EV / mo +$2,244 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,093 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,440 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.64/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $1.86–$3.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 839 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $15 below CC-SS $94.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $80.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,300 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $80): -$28,445 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,445 (+$6,855 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,645 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,800, the opportunity cost of earning $5,571/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,680, position total $-28,133 (+$7,167 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $77 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.8% | 62% | 78% | $2,660 | $11,400 | +$5,829 | $31,298 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $77 1.8% OTM over spot $75.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.50 mid) = $2,660 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $78.50) 72% EV / mo +$2,276 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-4.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~19.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,517 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$627 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $88 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.45/sh now → $1.73 mid-life (likely $2.25–$3.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,810 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $78 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $18 below CC-SS $94.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $78.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,300 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $77): -$31,298 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $93.50): -$132 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,430 (+$3,870 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,645 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,785, the opportunity cost of earning $11,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,721, position total $-31,169 (+$4,131 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.917 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$35,300 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,645
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 20/20 | $5,571 | $4,071 | 81% | 84% | +$2,244 | -$28,445 | 50.1% | $-28,445 (vs do-nothing $-25,800) |
| $79 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 17/20 | $5,829 | $4,350 | 75% | 80% | +$1,733 | -$25,623 | 45.1% | $-26,020 (vs do-nothing $-23,375) |
| $79 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 19/20 | $5,700 | $4,207 | 70% | 77% | +$1,243 | -$27,498 | 48.4% | $-27,630 (vs do-nothing $-24,985) |
| $78 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 13/20 | $5,850 | $4,400 | 69% | 77% | +$1,384 | -$20,569 | 36.2% | $-21,495 (vs do-nothing $-18,850) |
| $79 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 20/20 | $5,571 | $4,071 | 67% | 75% | +$1,005 | -$27,845 | 49.0% | $-27,845 (vs do-nothing $-25,200) |
| $78.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 19/20 | $5,700 | $4,207 | 65% | 74% | +$943 | -$27,118 | 47.7% | $-27,250 (vs do-nothing $-24,605) |
| $78 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 15/20 | $5,625 | $4,161 | 65% | 74% | +$1,142 | -$22,684 | 39.9% | $-23,345 (vs do-nothing $-20,700) |
| $78 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 19/20 | $5,700 | $4,207 | 63% | 72% | +$489 | -$28,068 | 49.4% | $-28,200 (vs do-nothing $-25,555) |
| $77 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 10/20 | $6,000 | $4,571 | 62% | 72% | +$1,198 | -$16,473 | 29.0% | $-17,795 (vs do-nothing $-15,150) |
| $77.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 16/20 | $5,714 | $4,243 | 61% | 72% | +$914 | -$23,796 | 41.9% | $-24,325 (vs do-nothing $-21,680) |
| $77 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 13/20 | $5,989 | $4,539 | 60% | 71% | +$1,096 | -$20,439 | 36.0% | $-21,365 (vs do-nothing $-18,720) |
| $77 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 16/20 | $5,829 | $4,357 | 59% | 70% | +$586 | -$24,516 | 43.2% | $-25,045 (vs do-nothing $-22,400) |
| $76.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.35 | 12/20 | $6,043 | $4,600 | 57% | 70% | +$997 | -$19,227 | 33.9% | $-20,285 (vs do-nothing $-17,640) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 14/20 | $5,800 | $4,343 | 56% | 70% | +$798 | -$21,662 | 38.1% | $-22,455 (vs do-nothing $-19,810) |
| $76 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.85 | 8/20 | $6,343 | $4,929 | 54% | 69% | +$1,096 | -$13,618 | 24.0% | $-15,205 (vs do-nothing $-12,560) |
| $76 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 13/20 | $5,757 | $4,307 | 54% | 68% | +$701 | -$20,504 | 36.1% | $-21,430 (vs do-nothing $-18,785) |
| $76 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 10/20 | $5,571 | $4,143 | 54% | 69% | +$889 | -$16,273 | 28.6% | $-17,595 (vs do-nothing $-14,950) |
| $75.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 12/20 | $5,829 | $4,386 | 52% | 68% | +$756 | -$19,167 | 33.7% | $-20,225 (vs do-nothing $-17,580) |
| $75 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 11/20 | $5,657 | $4,221 | 49% | 67% | +$613 | -$17,900 | 31.5% | $-19,090 (vs do-nothing $-16,445) |
| $75 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 9/20 | $5,979 | $4,557 | 48% | 66% | +$805 | -$15,095 | 26.6% | $-16,550 (vs do-nothing $-13,905) |
| $74.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 11/20 | $5,657 | $4,221 | 47% | 65% | +$196 | -$18,450 | 32.5% | $-19,640 (vs do-nothing $-16,995) |
| $75 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 6/20 | $6,171 | $4,771 | 46% | 66% | +$934 | -$10,484 | 18.5% | $-12,335 (vs do-nothing $-9,690) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.