20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.68 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,929/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,500/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-35,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 16 × $79 | 77% | $5,486 | $797 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 12 × $82 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.7% | 90% | 21% | $360 | $1,543 | -$3,943 | $14,857 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $82 8.7% OTM over spot $75.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.38 mid) = $360 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,543/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $82.38) 91% EV / mo +$756 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.3-5.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,564 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,987 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $87 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.77/sh now → $1.96 mid-life (likely $1.59–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 414 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $83 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $13 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $82.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,500 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $82): -$14,857 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $93.50): -$905 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,762 (+$19,738 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,500, the opportunity cost of earning $1,543/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,780, position total $-15,935 (+$19,565 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 16 × $80 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.0% | 82% | 36% | $880 | $3,771 | -$1,714 | $22,609 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $80 6.0% OTM over spot $75.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid) = $880 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,771/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $80.62) 85% EV / mo +$1,476 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-5.0] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,035 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,095 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.63/sh now → $1.86 mid-life (likely $1.86–$2.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 771 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $15 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $80.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,500 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $80): -$22,609 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93.50): -$452 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,062 (+$12,438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,800, the opportunity cost of earning $3,771/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,840, position total $-23,015 (+$12,485 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $79 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.7% | 77% | 38% | $1,280 | $5,486 | — | $23,809 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $79 4.7% OTM over spot $75.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.82 mid) = $1,280 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,486/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $79.83) 81% EV / mo +$2,111 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.7-4.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~9.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,468 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,619 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $85 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.56/sh now → $1.81 mid-life (likely $1.96–$2.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,132 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $80 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $16 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $79.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,500 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $79): -$23,809 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93.50): -$452 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,262 (+$11,238 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,000, the opportunity cost of earning $5,486/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,040, position total $-24,215 (+$11,285 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $77 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.1% | 64% | 75% | $2,600 | $11,143 | +$5,657 | $32,762 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $77 2.1% OTM over spot $75.45 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.40 mid) = $2,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,143/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $78.40) 73% EV / mo +$2,429 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.7-5.0] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~18.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,623 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$838 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $88 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $2.19–$3.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,750 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $78 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $18 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $78.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,500 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $77): -$32,762 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,762 (+$2,738 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,262 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,500, the opportunity cost of earning $11,143/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,300, position total $-32,495 (+$3,005 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.923 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$35,500 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,262
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $79 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 16/20 | $5,486 | $4,014 | 77% | 81% | +$2,111 | -$23,809 | 41.9% | $-24,262 (vs do-nothing $-22,000) |
| $79 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 19/20 | $5,700 | $4,207 | 71% | 78% | +$1,465 | -$27,133 | 47.8% | $-27,247 (vs do-nothing $-24,985) |
| $78 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 13/20 | $5,571 | $4,121 | 71% | 78% | +$1,592 | -$20,385 | 35.9% | $-21,177 (vs do-nothing $-18,915) |
| $79 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 20/20 | $5,571 | $4,071 | 68% | 76% | +$1,256 | -$27,462 | 48.3% | $-27,462 (vs do-nothing $-25,200) |
| $78.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 19/20 | $5,700 | $4,207 | 66% | 74% | +$1,179 | -$26,753 | 47.1% | $-26,867 (vs do-nothing $-24,605) |
| $78 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 16/20 | $5,657 | $4,186 | 66% | 75% | +$1,099 | -$24,049 | 42.3% | $-24,502 (vs do-nothing $-22,240) |
| $78 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 19/20 | $5,700 | $4,207 | 64% | 73% | +$725 | -$27,703 | 48.8% | $-27,817 (vs do-nothing $-25,555) |
| $77 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 10/20 | $5,571 | $4,143 | 64% | 73% | +$1,215 | -$16,381 | 28.8% | $-17,512 (vs do-nothing $-15,250) |
| $77.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 16/20 | $5,714 | $4,243 | 62% | 72% | +$1,115 | -$23,489 | 41.4% | $-23,942 (vs do-nothing $-21,680) |
| $77 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 13/20 | $5,850 | $4,400 | 61% | 72% | +$1,171 | -$20,255 | 35.7% | $-21,047 (vs do-nothing $-18,785) |
| $77 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 15/20 | $5,464 | $4,000 | 59% | 71% | +$740 | -$22,696 | 40.0% | $-23,262 (vs do-nothing $-21,000) |
| $76.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 12/20 | $5,529 | $4,086 | 58% | 70% | +$697 | -$19,237 | 33.9% | $-20,142 (vs do-nothing $-17,880) |
| $76.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 14/20 | $5,800 | $4,343 | 57% | 70% | +$980 | -$21,393 | 37.7% | $-22,072 (vs do-nothing $-19,810) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 8/20 | $6,000 | $4,586 | 56% | 70% | +$1,161 | -$13,545 | 23.8% | $-14,902 (vs do-nothing $-12,640) |
| $76 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 11/20 | $5,893 | $4,457 | 55% | 69% | +$953 | -$17,799 | 31.3% | $-18,817 (vs do-nothing $-16,555) |
| $76 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 13/20 | $5,757 | $4,307 | 55% | 69% | +$876 | -$20,255 | 35.7% | $-21,047 (vs do-nothing $-18,785) |
| $75.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 12/20 | $5,829 | $4,386 | 52% | 68% | +$924 | -$18,937 | 33.3% | $-19,842 (vs do-nothing $-17,580) |
| $75 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 11/20 | $5,657 | $4,221 | 50% | 67% | +$775 | -$17,689 | 31.1% | $-18,707 (vs do-nothing $-16,445) |
| $75 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 9/20 | $5,786 | $4,364 | 49% | 67% | +$809 | -$15,013 | 26.4% | $-16,257 (vs do-nothing $-13,995) |
| $74.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 11/20 | $5,657 | $4,221 | 48% | 66% | +$367 | -$18,239 | 32.1% | $-19,257 (vs do-nothing $-16,995) |
| $75 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 6/20 | $5,657 | $4,257 | 48% | 66% | +$757 | -$10,488 | 18.5% | $-12,072 (vs do-nothing $-9,810) |
| $74 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 10/20 | $6,000 | $4,571 | 45% | 66% | +$800 | -$16,481 | 29.0% | $-17,612 (vs do-nothing $-15,350) |
| $74 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 8/20 | $6,171 | $4,757 | 43% | 65% | +$796 | -$13,665 | 24.1% | $-15,022 (vs do-nothing $-12,760) |
| $74 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 5/20 | $6,000 | $4,607 | 40% | 63% | +$646 | -$8,940 | 15.7% | $-10,637 (vs do-nothing $-8,375) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.