20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $98.40 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,629/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,500/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-41,360 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 16 × $79 | 77% | $5,486 | $968 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $83 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.1% | 93% | 13% | $360 | $1,543 | -$3,943 | $27,356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $83 10.1% OTM over spot $75.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.33 mid) = $360 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,543/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $83.33) 94% EV / mo +$967 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-4.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,068 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,208 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $87 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.80/sh now → $1.98 mid-life (likely $1.67–$3.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 273 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $84 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83 is $15 below CC-SS $98.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $83.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $83)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $98.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,360 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $83): -$27,356 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $92): -$1,270 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,626 (+$12,734 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,930, the opportunity cost of earning $1,543/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,568, position total $-27,538 (+$13,822 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $82 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.7% | 91% | 19% | $600 | $2,571 | -$2,914 | $32,196 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $82 8.7% OTM over spot $75.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.38 mid) = $600 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $82.38) 92% EV / mo +$1,503 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [1.8-5.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,539 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,267 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.73/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 377 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $83 (overshoots $1.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $16 below CC-SS $98.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $82.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $98.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,360 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $82): -$32,196 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,196 (+$9,164 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,500, the opportunity cost of earning $2,571/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,320, position total $-31,108 (+$10,252 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 17 × $80 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.1% | 83% | 35% | $850 | $3,643 | -$1,843 | $30,426 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $80 6.1% OTM over spot $75.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid) = $850 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $80.60) 85% EV / mo +$1,337 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [1.7-5.1] median, 0.6 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,387 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,274 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.60/sh now → $1.84 mid-life (likely $1.72–$2.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 732 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $18 below CC-SS $98.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $80.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $98.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,360 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $80): -$30,426 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $92): -$1,904 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,331 (+$9,029 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,635, the opportunity cost of earning $3,643/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,182, position total $-31,243 (+$10,117 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $79 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.7% | 77% | 37% | $1,280 | $5,486 | — | $29,756 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $79 4.7% OTM over spot $75.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.88 mid) = $1,280 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,486/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $79.88) 82% EV / mo +$2,232 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.1-5.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo) · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~10.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,459 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,585 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $85 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $1.97–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,104 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $80 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $19 below CC-SS $98.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $79.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $98.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,360 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $79): -$29,756 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $92): -$2,539 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,296 (+$9,064 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,600, the opportunity cost of earning $5,486/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,056, position total $-31,208 (+$10,152 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $77 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.1% | 64% | 74% | $2,565 | $10,993 | +$5,507 | $38,091 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $77 2.1% OTM over spot $75.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.45 mid) = $2,565 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,993/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $78.45) 74% EV / mo +$2,908 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.7-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~19.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,855 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$661 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $89 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $2.18–$3.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,701 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $78 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $21 below CC-SS $98.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $78.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $98.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,360 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $77): -$38,091 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $92): -$635 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,726 (+$2,634 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,030, the opportunity cost of earning $10,993/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,759, position total $-37,638 (+$3,722 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$41,360 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,696
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $79 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 16/20 | $5,486 | $4,014 | 77% | 82% | +$2,232 | -$29,756 | 52.4% | $-32,296 (vs do-nothing $-19,600) |
| $78 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 14/20 | $5,400 | $3,943 | 71% | 78% | +$1,238 | -$27,297 | 48.1% | $-31,106 (vs do-nothing $-18,410) |
| $79 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 20/20 | $5,571 | $4,071 | 71% | 78% | +$1,174 | -$36,196 | 63.7% | $-36,196 (vs do-nothing $-23,500) |
| $78 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 16/20 | $5,486 | $4,014 | 66% | 75% | +$987 | -$30,076 | 53.0% | $-32,616 (vs do-nothing $-19,920) |
| $78.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 20/20 | $5,571 | $4,071 | 66% | 74% | +$760 | -$35,896 | 63.2% | $-35,896 (vs do-nothing $-23,200) |
| $77 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 10/20 | $5,786 | $4,357 | 64% | 74% | +$1,531 | -$20,048 | 35.3% | $-26,396 (vs do-nothing $-13,700) |
| $78 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 18/20 | $5,400 | $3,914 | 64% | 73% | +$655 | -$32,936 | 58.0% | $-34,206 (vs do-nothing $-21,510) |
| $77.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 16/20 | $5,486 | $4,014 | 62% | 72% | +$869 | -$29,596 | 52.1% | $-32,136 (vs do-nothing $-19,440) |
| $77 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 13/20 | $5,432 | $3,982 | 61% | 72% | +$811 | -$25,282 | 44.5% | $-29,726 (vs do-nothing $-17,030) |
| $77 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 15/20 | $5,464 | $4,000 | 59% | 71% | +$735 | -$28,272 | 49.8% | $-31,446 (vs do-nothing $-18,750) |
| $76.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 12/20 | $5,529 | $4,086 | 58% | 70% | +$754 | -$23,697 | 41.7% | $-28,776 (vs do-nothing $-16,080) |
| $76.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 14/20 | $5,600 | $4,143 | 57% | 70% | +$783 | -$26,737 | 47.1% | $-30,546 (vs do-nothing $-17,850) |
| $76 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 8/20 | $5,657 | $4,243 | 56% | 70% | +$911 | -$16,598 | 29.2% | $-24,216 (vs do-nothing $-11,520) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.35 | 11/20 | $5,539 | $4,104 | 55% | 69% | +$656 | -$22,053 | 38.8% | $-27,766 (vs do-nothing $-15,070) |
| $76 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 13/20 | $5,386 | $3,936 | 55% | 69% | +$512 | -$25,347 | 44.6% | $-29,791 (vs do-nothing $-17,095) |
| $75.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 12/20 | $5,486 | $4,043 | 53% | 68% | +$593 | -$23,637 | 41.6% | $-28,716 (vs do-nothing $-16,020) |
| $75 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 11/20 | $5,500 | $4,064 | 50% | 67% | +$630 | -$21,888 | 38.5% | $-27,601 (vs do-nothing $-14,905) |
| $75 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 9/20 | $5,593 | $4,171 | 49% | 67% | +$667 | -$18,448 | 32.5% | $-25,431 (vs do-nothing $-12,735) |
| $74.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 11/20 | $5,657 | $4,221 | 48% | 66% | +$379 | -$22,328 | 39.3% | $-28,041 (vs do-nothing $-15,345) |
| $75 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 6/20 | $5,529 | $4,129 | 48% | 66% | +$707 | -$12,749 | 22.4% | $-21,636 (vs do-nothing $-8,940) |
| $74 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 11/20 | $5,814 | $4,379 | 46% | 65% | +$105 | -$22,768 | 40.1% | $-28,481 (vs do-nothing $-15,785) |
| $74 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 8/20 | $5,829 | $4,414 | 44% | 64% | +$503 | -$16,798 | 29.6% | $-24,416 (vs do-nothing $-11,720) |
| $74 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 5/20 | $5,786 | $4,393 | 40% | 63% | +$505 | -$10,849 | 19.1% | $-20,371 (vs do-nothing $-7,675) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.