20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $93.92 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,643/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,489/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-34,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 12 × $78 | 68% | $4,886 | $653 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $83 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.6% | 91% | 18% | $360 | $1,543 | -$3,343 | $19,293 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $83 9.6% OTM over spot $75.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.35 mid) = $360 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,543/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $83.35) 92% EV / mo +$560 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.5] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,589 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,980 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $87 @ 74% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.62/sh now → $1.86 mid-life (likely $1.57–$2.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 317 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $84 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83 is $11 below CC-SS $93.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $83.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $83)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $93.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,481 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $83): -$19,293 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$74 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,486 (+$14,114 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,856 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,630, the opportunity cost of earning $1,543/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,532, position total $-20,445 (+$14,155 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 15 × $80 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.6% | 80% | 41% | $750 | $3,214 | -$1,671 | $20,128 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $80 5.6% OTM over spot $75.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.68 mid) = $750 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,214/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $80.67) 83% EV / mo +$615 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~8.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,021 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,830 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $84 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.68–$2.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 854 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $14 below CC-SS $93.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $80.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $93.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,481 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $80): -$20,128 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $93.50): -$184 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,431 (+$13,169 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,856 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,575, the opportunity cost of earning $3,214/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,660, position total $-21,558 (+$13,042 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 12 × $78 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.0% | 68% | 50% | $1,140 | $4,886 | — | $17,962 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $78 3.0% OTM over spot $75.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.15 mid) = $1,140 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,886/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $79.15) 76% EV / mo +$635 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.6-5.0] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.3 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~15.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,316 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$820 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.31/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.96–$2.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,512 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $79 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $16 below CC-SS $93.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.95 collected) or spot ≥ $79.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $93.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,481 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $78): -$17,962 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $93.50): -$295 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,376 (+$15,224 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,856 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,520, the opportunity cost of earning $4,886/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,788, position total $-19,671 (+$14,929 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $76 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.3% | 53% | 96% | $2,325 | $9,964 | +$5,079 | $24,553 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $76 0.3% OTM over spot $75.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.80 mid) = $2,325 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,964/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $77.80) 67% EV / mo $-115 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~32.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,588 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$3 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.19/sh now → $1.55 mid-life (likely $2.16–$3.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,250 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $77 (overshoots $1.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76 is $18 below CC-SS $93.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.55 collected) or spot ≥ $77.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $93.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,481 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $76): -$24,553 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $93.50): -$184 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,856 (+$8,744 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,856 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,000, the opportunity cost of earning $9,964/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,085, position total $-25,983 (+$8,617 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.922 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,481 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,856
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 12/20 | $4,886 | $3,454 | 68% | 76% | +$635 | -$17,962 | 31.6% | $-19,376 (vs do-nothing $-17,520) |
| $78.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 20/20 | $4,857 | $3,368 | 64% | 73% | $-258 | -$27,437 | 48.3% | $-28,556 (vs do-nothing $-26,700) |
| $78 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 16/20 | $4,971 | $3,511 | 64% | 73% | +$53 | -$23,150 | 40.8% | $-24,416 (vs do-nothing $-22,560) |
| $78 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 18/20 | $4,886 | $3,411 | 62% | 72% | $-157 | -$25,233 | 44.4% | $-26,426 (vs do-nothing $-24,570) |
| $77 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 11/20 | $4,950 | $3,525 | 61% | 70% | $-476 | -$17,455 | 30.7% | $-18,906 (vs do-nothing $-17,050) |
| $77.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 17/20 | $5,100 | $3,632 | 60% | 71% | $-108 | -$24,341 | 42.9% | $-25,571 (vs do-nothing $-23,715) |
| $77 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 13/20 | $5,014 | $3,575 | 59% | 70% | $-31 | -$19,654 | 34.6% | $-21,031 (vs do-nothing $-19,175) |
| $77 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 15/20 | $4,929 | $3,475 | 58% | 69% | $-90 | -$21,928 | 38.6% | $-23,231 (vs do-nothing $-21,375) |
| $76.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 12/20 | $5,143 | $3,711 | 56% | 68% | $-63 | -$18,502 | 32.6% | $-19,916 (vs do-nothing $-18,060) |
| $76.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 14/20 | $5,100 | $3,654 | 56% | 68% | $-7 | -$20,816 | 36.6% | $-22,156 (vs do-nothing $-20,300) |
| $76 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 13/20 | $5,200 | $3,761 | 53% | 68% | +$38 | -$19,654 | 34.6% | $-21,031 (vs do-nothing $-19,175) |
| $76 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 8/20 | $5,314 | $3,911 | 53% | 67% | $-61 | -$13,095 | 23.1% | $-14,656 (vs do-nothing $-12,800) |
| $76 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 11/20 | $5,304 | $3,879 | 53% | 67% | $-13 | -$17,235 | 30.3% | $-18,686 (vs do-nothing $-16,830) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $75.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $5,143 | $3,711 | 51% | 67% | $-35 | -$18,502 | 32.6% | $-19,916 (vs do-nothing $-18,060) |
| $75 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 11/20 | $5,029 | $3,604 | 49% | 66% | $-119 | -$17,290 | 30.4% | $-18,741 (vs do-nothing $-16,885) |
| $75 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 9/20 | $5,304 | $3,893 | 48% | 65% | $-39 | -$14,552 | 25.6% | $-16,076 (vs do-nothing $-14,220) |
| $74.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 10/20 | $4,857 | $3,439 | 46% | 64% | $-209 | -$16,018 | 28.2% | $-17,506 (vs do-nothing $-15,650) |
| $75 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 6/20 | $5,400 | $4,011 | 45% | 64% | +$43 | -$10,091 | 17.8% | $-11,726 (vs do-nothing $-9,870) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.