20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.09 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,957/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,489/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-34,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 18 × $80 | 79% | $4,629 | $252 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 18 × $83 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.0% | 91% | 19% | $360 | $1,543 | -$3,086 | $19,601 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $83 9.0% OTM over spot $76.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.33 mid) = $360 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,543/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $83.33) 92% EV / mo +$563 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.4-4.0] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,700 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,931 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $87 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.59/sh now → $1.83 mid-life (likely $1.55–$2.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 336 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $84 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83 is $11 below CC-SS $94.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $83.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $83)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,098 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $83): -$19,601 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$108 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,811 (+$13,389 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,181 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,630, the opportunity cost of earning $1,543/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,532, position total $-20,746 (+$13,454 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 12 × $80 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.0% | 79% | 43% | $720 | $3,086 | -$1,543 | $16,187 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $80 5.0% OTM over spot $76.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid) = $720 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,086/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $80.65) 82% EV / mo +$893 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.2] median · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~9.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $521 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,312 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $85 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.77–$2.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 951 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $14 below CC-SS $94.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $80.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,098 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $80): -$16,187 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $93.50): -$432 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,721 (+$16,479 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,181 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,540, the opportunity cost of earning $3,086/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,808, position total $-17,992 (+$16,208 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $80 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.0% | 79% | 34% | $1,080 | $4,629 | — | $24,281 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $80 5.0% OTM over spot $76.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,629/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $80.65) 82% EV / mo +$1,340 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.6-5.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~9.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,950 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,969 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $85 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.77–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,005 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $14 below CC-SS $94.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $80.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,098 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $80): -$24,281 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$108 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,491 (+$8,709 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,181 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,310, the opportunity cost of earning $4,629/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,212, position total $-25,426 (+$8,774 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $77 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.1% | 58% | 86% | $2,100 | $9,000 | +$4,371 | $32,079 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $77 1.1% OTM over spot $76.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.35 mid) = $2,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $78.35) 68% EV / mo $-1,857 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.7-4.9] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~25.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,382 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,028 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $85 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.21/sh now → $1.56 mid-life (likely $2.10–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,020 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $78 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $17 below CC-SS $94.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $78.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,098 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $77): -$32,079 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,181 (+$1,019 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,181 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,000, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,780, position total $-33,004 (+$1,196 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.923 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,098 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,181
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 18/20 | $4,629 | $3,154 | 79% | 82% | +$1,340 | -$24,281 | 42.7% | $-25,491 (vs do-nothing $-23,310) |
| $79 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 18/20 | $4,629 | $3,154 | 73% | 78% | $-203 | -$26,081 | 45.9% | $-27,291 (vs do-nothing $-25,110) |
| $80 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 20/20 | $4,500 | $3,011 | 72% | 78% | +$387 | -$26,079 | 45.9% | $-27,181 (vs do-nothing $-25,000) |
| $80 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 20/20 | $4,571 | $3,082 | 69% | 76% | +$507 | -$24,979 | 44.0% | $-26,081 (vs do-nothing $-23,900) |
| $78 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 12/20 | $4,886 | $3,454 | 66% | 74% | +$247 | -$18,167 | 32.0% | $-19,701 (vs do-nothing $-17,520) |
| $79 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 17/20 | $4,614 | $3,146 | 65% | 73% | +$436 | -$22,422 | 39.5% | $-23,686 (vs do-nothing $-21,505) |
| $78.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 19/20 | $4,614 | $3,132 | 63% | 72% | $-513 | -$26,390 | 46.5% | $-27,546 (vs do-nothing $-25,365) |
| $78 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 14/20 | $4,650 | $3,204 | 62% | 71% | $-40 | -$20,355 | 35.8% | $-21,781 (vs do-nothing $-19,600) |
| $78 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 17/20 | $4,614 | $3,146 | 61% | 70% | $-418 | -$24,122 | 42.5% | $-25,386 (vs do-nothing $-23,205) |
| $77.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 15/20 | $4,500 | $3,046 | 58% | 69% | $-363 | -$21,734 | 38.3% | $-23,106 (vs do-nothing $-20,925) |
| $77 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 10/20 | $4,500 | $3,082 | 58% | 68% | $-928 | -$16,040 | 28.2% | $-17,681 (vs do-nothing $-15,500) |
| $77 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 12/20 | $4,629 | $3,196 | 57% | 68% | $-409 | -$18,347 | 32.3% | $-19,881 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $77 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 14/20 | $4,600 | $3,154 | 56% | 68% | $-364 | -$20,705 | 36.5% | $-22,131 (vs do-nothing $-19,950) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 13/20 | $4,736 | $3,296 | 54% | 67% | $-296 | -$19,551 | 34.4% | $-21,031 (vs do-nothing $-18,850) |
| $76.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 11/20 | $4,714 | $3,289 | 54% | 67% | $-428 | -$17,148 | 30.2% | $-18,736 (vs do-nothing $-16,555) |
| $76 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 12/20 | $4,800 | $3,368 | 51% | 66% | $-261 | -$18,347 | 32.3% | $-19,881 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $76 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 10/20 | $4,821 | $3,404 | 51% | 65% | $-366 | -$15,840 | 27.9% | $-17,481 (vs do-nothing $-15,300) |
| $76 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 7/20 | $5,100 | $3,704 | 50% | 66% | $-91 | -$11,473 | 20.2% | $-13,276 (vs do-nothing $-11,095) |
| $75.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 11/20 | $4,714 | $3,289 | 49% | 65% | $-330 | -$17,148 | 30.2% | $-18,736 (vs do-nothing $-16,555) |
| $75 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 10/20 | $4,571 | $3,154 | 47% | 64% | $-405 | -$15,890 | 28.0% | $-17,531 (vs do-nothing $-15,350) |
| $75 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 7/20 | $4,950 | $3,554 | 45% | 65% | +$524 | -$11,053 | 19.5% | $-12,856 (vs do-nothing $-10,675) |
| $75 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 5/20 | $4,821 | $3,439 | 42% | 62% | $-95 | -$8,420 | 14.8% | $-10,331 (vs do-nothing $-8,150) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.