20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.44 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,571/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,500/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-34,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 17 × $80 | 78% | $4,371 | $341 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 14 × $83 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.8% | 90% | 20% | $350 | $1,500 | -$2,871 | $15,664 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $83 8.8% OTM over spot $76.32 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid) = $350 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $83.30) 91% EV / mo +$633 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.5-5.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,115 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,155 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $87 @ 73% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $1.50–$2.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 394 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $84 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83 is $11 below CC-SS $94.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $83.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $83)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,484 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $83): -$15,664 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $93.50): -$533 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,314 (+$17,286 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,894 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,420, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,566, position total $-17,422 (+$17,178 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 11 × $80 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.8% | 78% | 46% | $660 | $2,829 | -$1,543 | $15,223 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $80 4.8% OTM over spot $76.32 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid) = $660 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,829/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $80.65) 81% EV / mo +$610 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~9.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-324 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,164 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $85 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.34/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.79–$2.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,025 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $14 below CC-SS $94.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $80.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,484 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $80): -$15,223 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $93.50): -$800 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,139 (+$17,461 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,894 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,245, the opportunity cost of earning $2,829/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,574, position total $-17,415 (+$17,185 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $80 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.8% | 78% | 33% | $1,020 | $4,371 | — | $23,526 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $80 4.8% OTM over spot $76.32 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid) = $1,020 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,371/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $80.65) 81% EV / mo +$942 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.4-5.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~9.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,684 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,799 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $85 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.34/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.73–$2.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,001 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $14 below CC-SS $94.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $80.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,484 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $80): -$23,526 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $93.50): -$267 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,909 (+$9,691 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,894 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,015, the opportunity cost of earning $4,371/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,978, position total $-24,849 (+$9,751 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 16 × $77 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.9% | 57% | 89% | $2,000 | $8,571 | +$4,200 | $25,902 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $77 0.9% OTM over spot $76.32 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.50 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $78.50) 68% EV / mo $-690 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-4.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~26.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,371 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$451 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.17/sh now → $1.53 mid-life (likely $2.06–$3.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,053 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $78 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $17 below CC-SS $94.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $78.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,484 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $77): -$25,902 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93.50): -$356 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,374 (+$7,226 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,894 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,480, the opportunity cost of earning $8,571/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,504, position total $-27,370 (+$7,230 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.924 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,484 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,894
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 17/20 | $4,371 | $2,893 | 78% | 81% | +$942 | -$23,526 | 41.4% | $-24,909 (vs do-nothing $-22,015) |
| $79 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 17/20 | $4,371 | $2,893 | 71% | 77% | $-602 | -$25,226 | 44.4% | $-26,609 (vs do-nothing $-23,715) |
| $80 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 19/20 | $4,479 | $2,986 | 71% | 77% | +$418 | -$25,344 | 44.6% | $-26,549 (vs do-nothing $-23,655) |
| $80 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 19/20 | $4,343 | $2,850 | 68% | 76% | +$379 | -$24,394 | 42.9% | $-25,599 (vs do-nothing $-22,705) |
| $78 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 11/20 | $4,479 | $3,043 | 64% | 73% | $-101 | -$17,038 | 30.0% | $-18,954 (vs do-nothing $-16,060) |
| $79 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 16/20 | $4,457 | $2,986 | 64% | 73% | +$442 | -$21,582 | 38.0% | $-23,054 (vs do-nothing $-20,160) |
| $78.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 18/20 | $4,371 | $2,886 | 62% | 71% | $-596 | -$25,630 | 45.1% | $-26,924 (vs do-nothing $-24,030) |
| $78 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 12/20 | $4,371 | $2,929 | 61% | 71% | +$205 | -$17,687 | 31.1% | $-19,514 (vs do-nothing $-16,620) |
| $78 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 16/20 | $4,343 | $2,871 | 60% | 70% | $-507 | -$23,262 | 41.0% | $-24,734 (vs do-nothing $-21,840) |
| $77.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 15/20 | $4,500 | $3,036 | 58% | 69% | $-487 | -$22,258 | 39.2% | $-23,819 (vs do-nothing $-20,925) |
| $77 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 8/20 | $4,286 | $2,871 | 57% | 68% | $-345 | -$12,951 | 22.8% | $-15,134 (vs do-nothing $-12,240) |
| $77 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 12/20 | $4,629 | $3,186 | 56% | 67% | $-592 | -$18,767 | 33.0% | $-20,594 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $77 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 14/20 | $4,600 | $3,143 | 55% | 68% | $-496 | -$21,194 | 37.3% | $-22,844 (vs do-nothing $-19,950) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 12/20 | $4,371 | $2,929 | 53% | 67% | $-402 | -$18,467 | 32.5% | $-20,294 (vs do-nothing $-17,400) |
| $76.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 10/20 | $4,286 | $2,857 | 53% | 66% | $-560 | -$15,939 | 28.1% | $-17,944 (vs do-nothing $-15,050) |
| $76 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 11/20 | $4,479 | $3,043 | 51% | 66% | $-293 | -$17,148 | 30.2% | $-19,064 (vs do-nothing $-16,170) |
| $76 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 9/20 | $4,339 | $2,918 | 50% | 65% | $-491 | -$14,570 | 25.7% | $-16,664 (vs do-nothing $-13,770) |
| $76 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 6/20 | $4,371 | $2,971 | 49% | 64% | $-331 | -$10,043 | 17.7% | $-12,404 (vs do-nothing $-9,510) |
| $75.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 10/20 | $4,286 | $2,857 | 48% | 64% | $-434 | -$15,939 | 28.1% | $-17,944 (vs do-nothing $-15,050) |
| $75 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 10/20 | $4,571 | $3,143 | 46% | 63% | $-551 | -$16,239 | 28.6% | $-18,244 (vs do-nothing $-15,350) |
| $75 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 7/20 | $4,650 | $3,243 | 44% | 63% | +$83 | -$11,437 | 20.1% | $-13,709 (vs do-nothing $-10,815) |
| $75 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 5/20 | $5,250 | $3,857 | 41% | 62% | +$91 | -$8,494 | 15.0% | $-10,944 (vs do-nothing $-8,050) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.