20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.48 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,431/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,503/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-34,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 17 × $80 | 77% | $5,525 | $768 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $83 | 17 Jul | 6d | 8.2% | 91% | 18% | $300 | $1,500 | -$4,025 | $22,663 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $83 8.2% OTM over spot $76.69 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.25 mid) = $300 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $83.25) 92% EV / mo +$489 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,295 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,141 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $87 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 360 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $84 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83 is $11 below CC-SS $94.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $83.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $83)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,915 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $83): -$22,663 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,749 (+$10,251 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,949 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,800, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,580, position total $-23,517 (+$10,483 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $81.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 6.3% | 86% | 29% | $700 | $3,500 | -$2,025 | $25,263 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $81.50 6.3% OTM over spot $76.69 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.45 mid) = $700 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $81.95) 88% EV / mo +$1,359 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,831 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,614 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $87 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.34/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.59–$2.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 635 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $83 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81.50 is $13 below CC-SS $94.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $81.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,915 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $81.50): -$25,263 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,349 (+$7,651 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,949 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,400, the opportunity cost of earning $3,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,180, position total $-26,117 (+$7,883 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $80 | 17 Jul | 6d | 4.3% | 77% | 35% | $1,105 | $5,525 | — | $23,514 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $80 4.3% OTM over spot $76.69 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.73 mid) = $1,105 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $80.72) 82% EV / mo +$1,847 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.9] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~9.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,980 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,606 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $86 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.25/sh now → $1.59 mid-life (likely $1.69–$2.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,053 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $81 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $14 below CC-SS $94.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $80.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,915 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $80): -$23,514 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $93.50): -$280 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,879 (+$9,121 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,949 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,930, the opportunity cost of earning $5,525/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,893, position total $-24,815 (+$9,185 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $78 | 17 Jul | 6d | 1.7% | 62% | 77% | $2,185 | $10,925 | +$5,400 | $29,130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $78 1.7% OTM over spot $76.69 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.30 mid) = $2,185 credit for the 6d cycle → $10,925/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $79.30) 72% EV / mo +$1,544 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~18.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,004 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$690 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $88 @ 89% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now → $1.51 mid-life (likely $1.97–$2.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,796 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $79 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $16 below CC-SS $94.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $79.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,915 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $78): -$29,130 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $93.50): -$93 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,309 (+$3,691 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,949 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,360, the opportunity cost of earning $10,925/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $92.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,201, position total $-30,133 (+$3,867 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.925 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,915 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,949
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 17/20 | $5,525 | $5,548 | 77% | 82% | +$1,847 | -$23,514 | 41.4% | $-24,879 (vs do-nothing $-21,930) |
| $80.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 20/20 | $5,308 | $5,308 | 72% | 78% | +$1,065 | -$25,663 | 45.2% | $-26,749 (vs do-nothing $-23,800) |
| $79 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 14/20 | $5,600 | $5,645 | 70% | 77% | +$940 | -$20,554 | 36.2% | $-22,199 (vs do-nothing $-19,250) |
| $80 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 17/20 | $5,296 | $5,319 | 70% | 77% | +$1,195 | -$22,324 | 39.3% | $-23,689 (vs do-nothing $-20,740) |
| $79.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 19/20 | $5,415 | $5,422 | 65% | 74% | +$604 | -$24,855 | 43.8% | $-26,034 (vs do-nothing $-23,085) |
| $79 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 15/20 | $5,538 | $5,576 | 65% | 74% | +$894 | -$20,823 | 36.7% | $-22,374 (vs do-nothing $-19,425) |
| $79 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 17/20 | $5,228 | $5,250 | 63% | 72% | +$484 | -$22,834 | 40.2% | $-24,199 (vs do-nothing $-21,250) |
| $78 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 10/20 | $5,750 | $5,825 | 62% | 72% | +$813 | -$15,332 | 27.0% | $-17,349 (vs do-nothing $-14,400) |
| $78.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 16/20 | $5,400 | $5,430 | 61% | 71% | +$492 | -$21,971 | 38.7% | $-23,429 (vs do-nothing $-20,480) |
| $78 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 12/20 | $5,262 | $5,322 | 59% | 71% | +$548 | -$17,498 | 30.8% | $-19,329 (vs do-nothing $-16,380) |
| $78 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 15/20 | $5,512 | $5,550 | 58% | 70% | +$466 | -$21,048 | 37.1% | $-22,599 (vs do-nothing $-19,650) |
| $77.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 14/20 | $5,250 | $5,295 | 56% | 69% | +$96 | -$20,274 | 35.7% | $-21,919 (vs do-nothing $-18,970) |
| $77 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 7/20 | $5,425 | $5,522 | 54% | 68% | +$494 | -$11,152 | 19.6% | $-13,449 (vs do-nothing $-10,500) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $5,400 | $5,460 | 54% | 68% | +$619 | -$17,378 | 30.6% | $-19,209 (vs do-nothing $-16,260) |
| $77 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 10/20 | $5,308 | $5,383 | 54% | 68% | +$388 | -$15,182 | 26.7% | $-17,199 (vs do-nothing $-14,250) |
| $76.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 12/20 | $5,310 | $5,370 | 51% | 66% | +$97 | -$18,038 | 31.8% | $-19,869 (vs do-nothing $-16,920) |
| $76.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 10/20 | $5,654 | $5,729 | 51% | 66% | +$176 | -$15,532 | 27.3% | $-17,549 (vs do-nothing $-14,600) |
| $76 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 11/20 | $5,610 | $5,677 | 49% | 66% | +$411 | -$16,590 | 29.2% | $-18,514 (vs do-nothing $-15,565) |
| $76 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 9/20 | $5,815 | $5,898 | 48% | 65% | +$345 | -$14,114 | 24.8% | $-16,224 (vs do-nothing $-13,275) |
| $75.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 11/20 | $5,610 | $5,677 | 46% | 64% | $-36 | -$17,140 | 30.2% | $-19,064 (vs do-nothing $-16,115) |
| $76 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 6/20 | $6,150 | $6,255 | 45% | 64% | +$348 | -$9,859 | 17.4% | $-12,249 (vs do-nothing $-9,300) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.