FORTRESS FIGHT: COPX @ $75.83

BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.74 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

COPX @ $75.83 UNDERWATER $17.57 (18.8% below BE SS)

PARTIAL: 19 of 20 contracts already capped (19x $82C). FIGHTing the 1 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

1 of 20 contracts (100 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.74 (banked floor $94.39) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $65 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $38.858/sh)

SP: $90 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $19.960/sh)

HP: $68 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $9.525/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$5,040	(ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 100
Normal income ref	$440/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $70/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-1,815	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$220/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$440/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
6.5 mo to earn back $2,840

ML VELOCITY
11.5 mo to earn back $5,040

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $94.74 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $87C (15d, $10/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$35

Hole (after banked)

$1,780

was $1,815 · 2% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$760

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$94.74 → $94.39

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
19x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026	U6241782	$0.40	$760	2026-07-11

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 30 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 40 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $90.12 (+19%) · daily UBB $83.03 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 1 contract at $79 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 74%, breach 26%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($220/mo); it brings $244/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $77/8d for $506/mo, but breach risk rises to 40% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $85/8d (95% survival, $19/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $1,509 (53% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $93, recoverable in 3.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-1,852 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 1 × $79, 74% survival, $244/mo (E[net] $-90/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	24 Jul 2026 · 8d	1 × $79	74%	$244	$-90

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $-90/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $79 (primary), 74% survival, breach 26%, $244/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $85 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 95% (breach 26% → 5%) for $225/mo less (92% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $85 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect COPX to stay flat-to-down near term.

COPX spot $75.83 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield ← lean

1 × $85

24 Jul

12.1%

95%

11%

$19

-$225

$969

Sell 1 × $85 12.1% OTM over spot $75.83 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.40 mid)

= $5 credit for the 8d cycle → $19/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $85)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $85.40)

95%

EV / mo

$-3

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $104

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$233

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$87 @ 70% POP

61% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.36/sh now → $2.38 mid-life (likely $1.72–$2.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 157 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $86 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$85	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.12/sh	+$12 cycle +$17 [+$1…+$77] · 76% credit	64% surv 52%	-$947 NOT cap gain +$868
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$85	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.01/sh	+$1 cycle +$6 [-$12…+$66] · 64% credit	65% surv 53%	-$942 NOT cap gain +$873
Max even-money escape in the band	~$87	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.02/sh	+$2 cycle +$7 [-$13…+$73] · 64% credit	70% surv 61%	-$756 NOT cap gain +$1,059
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$19/mo
vs 50% target ($220/mo)	-91%
vs normal income ($440/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$19/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $85 is $10 below CC-SS $94.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$969
… as % of IC ($2,840)	34.1%
… as % of ML ($5,040)	19.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-1,850

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $85.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $83.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $84.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $84-85.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $85.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$85.00 (1.8σ)	$5	$-959	+$856	+$0
+2.5%	$87.12 (2.2σ)	$-207	$-974	+$841	-$200
+5%	$89.25 (2.6σ)	$-420	$-990	+$825	-$200
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (3.4σ)	$-835	$-1,020	+$795	-$200

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-1,815

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,755

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $85): -$969

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,029 (+$786 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-829 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-200, the opportunity cost of earning $19/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $90.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$507, position total $-996 (+$819 vs today)

▸

🎯 33% normal

1 × $79

24 Jul

4.2%

74%

44%

$65

$244

—

$1,509

Sell 1 × $79 4.2% OTM over spot $75.83 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.02 mid)

= $65 credit for the 8d cycle → $244/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $79)

74%

Breach risk

26%

POP (stays ≤ $80.03)

79%

EV / mo

+$2

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-4.9] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~9.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $691

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

44%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$139

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$81 @ 72% POP

64% survival

Buyback gross: $2.89/sh now → $2.04 mid-life (likely $2.26–$3.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,306 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $80 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$80	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.61/sh	+$61 cycle +$126 [+$7…+$63] · 80% credit	67% surv 55%	-$1,332 NOT cap gain +$483
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$79	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.10/sh	+$10 cycle +$75 [-$45…+$8] · 31% credit	64% surv 52%	-$1,446 NOT cap gain +$369
Max even-money escape in the band	~$81	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.12/sh	+$12 cycle +$77 [-$53…+$9] · 31% credit	69% surv 60%	-$1,289 NOT cap gain +$526
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$79	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.00/sh	+$0 cycle +$65 [-$58…-$2] · 23% credit	64% surv 53%	-$1,440 NOT cap gain +$375
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$81	31 Jul 2026	11d left	-$0.55/sh	-$55 cycle +$10 [-$121…-$63] · 5% credit	72% surv 64%	-$1,310 NOT cap gain +$505
budget: banked $65 debit $55 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$10 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $406/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$244/mo
vs 50% target ($220/mo)	+11%
vs normal income ($440/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$244/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $79 is $16 below CC-SS $94.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,509
… as % of IC ($2,840)	53.1%
… as % of ML ($5,040)	29.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-1,852

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $80.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $83.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $78.21	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $78-80.03	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $80.03	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$79.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$65	$-1,456	+$359	+$60
+2.5%	$80.97 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-132	$-1,470	+$345	-$137
+5%	$82.95 (1.4σ)	$-330	$-1,484	+$331	-$335
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (3.4σ)	$-1,375	$-1,560	+$255	-$740

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-1,815

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,755

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $79): -$1,509

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,569 (+$246 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-829 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-740, the opportunity cost of earning $244/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $90.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,047, position total $-1,536 (+$279 vs today)

▸

100% normal

1 × $77

24 Jul

1.5%

60%

82%

$135

$506

+$262

$1,639

Sell 1 × $77 1.5% OTM over spot $75.83 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.73 mid)

= $135 credit for the 8d cycle → $506/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $77)

60%

Breach risk

40%

POP (stays ≤ $78.72)

72%

EV / mo

+$37

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-4.8] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~18.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $928

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

68%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$59

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$82 @ 82% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $2.74/sh now → $1.94 mid-life (likely $2.59–$3.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,043 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $78 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$77	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.77/sh	+$77 cycle +$212 [+$8…+$47] · 82% credit	66% surv 53%	-$1,479 NOT cap gain +$336
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$77	31 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.10/sh	+$10 cycle +$145 [-$62…-$21] · 13% credit	64% surv 52%	-$1,562 NOT cap gain +$253
Max even-money escape in the band	~$79	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.08/sh	+$8 cycle +$143 [-$75…-$28] · 12% credit	69% surv 60%	-$1,409 NOT cap gain +$406
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$82	31 Jul 2026	11d left	-$1.34/sh	-$134 cycle +$1 [-$248…-$179]	82% surv 80%	-$1,225 NOT cap gain +$590
budget: banked $135 debit $134 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $164/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$506/mo
vs 50% target ($220/mo)	+130%
vs normal income ($440/mo)	115% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$506/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $77 is $18 below CC-SS $94.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,639
… as % of IC ($2,840)	57.7%
… as % of ML ($5,040)	32.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-1,852

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $78.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $83.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $76.23	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $76-78.72	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $78.72	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$77.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$135	$-1,571	+$244	+$130
+2.5%	$78.92 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-57	$-1,585	+$230	-$62
+5%	$80.85 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-250	$-1,599	+$216	-$255
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (3.4σ)	$-1,505	$-1,690	+$125	-$870

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-1,815

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,755

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $77): -$1,639

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,699 (+$116 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-829 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-870, the opportunity cost of earning $506/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $90.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,177, position total $-1,666 (+$149 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COPX are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (26 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.928 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$1,755 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-829

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$79	8d	24 Jul 2026	$0.65	1/1	$244	$244	74%	79%	+$2	-$1,509	53.1%	$-1,569 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$79.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$1.15	1/1	$230	$230	71%	77%	+$19	-$1,409	49.6%	$-1,469 (vs do-nothing $-640)
$79	15d	31 Jul 2026	$1.35	1/1	$270	$270	69%	76%	+$31	-$1,439	50.7%	$-1,499 (vs do-nothing $-670)
$78	8d	24 Jul 2026	$1.05	1/1	$394	$394	67%	76%	+$53	-$1,569	55.3%	$-1,629 (vs do-nothing $-800)
$78.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$1.45	1/1	$290	$290	66%	75%	+$21	-$1,479	52.1%	$-1,539 (vs do-nothing $-710)
$78.50	22d	7 Aug 2026	$1.75	1/1	$239	$239	64%	73%	$-7	-$1,449	51.0%	$-1,509 (vs do-nothing $-680)
$78	15d	31 Jul 2026	$1.65	1/1	$330	$330	64%	73%	+$28	-$1,509	53.1%	$-1,569 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$78	22d	7 Aug 2026	$2.00	1/1	$273	$273	62%	73%	+$5	-$1,474	51.9%	$-1,534 (vs do-nothing $-705)
$77.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$1.50	1/1	$300	$300	61%	71%	$-38	-$1,574	55.4%	$-1,634 (vs do-nothing $-805)
$77	8d	24 Jul 2026	$1.35	1/1	$506	$506	60%	72%	+$37	-$1,639	57.7%	$-1,699 (vs do-nothing $-870)
$77.50	22d	7 Aug 2026	$2.20	1/1	$300	$300	60%	72%	+$9	-$1,504	53.0%	$-1,564 (vs do-nothing $-735)
$77	15d	31 Jul 2026	$2.00	1/1	$400	$400	58%	71%	+$22	-$1,574	55.4%	$-1,634 (vs do-nothing $-805)
$77	22d	7 Aug 2026	$2.40	1/1	$327	$327	58%	71%	+$10	-$1,534	54.0%	$-1,594 (vs do-nothing $-765)

Show 13 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$76.50	8d	24 Jul 2026	$1.60	1/1	$600	$600	56%	70%	+$55	-$1,664	58.6%	$-1,724 (vs do-nothing $-895)
$76.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$2.10	1/1	$420	$420	56%	69%	$-0	-$1,614	56.8%	$-1,674 (vs do-nothing $-845)
$76.50	22d	7 Aug 2026	$2.70	1/1	$368	$368	55%	70%	+$23	-$1,554	54.7%	$-1,614 (vs do-nothing $-785)
$76	22d	7 Aug 2026	$2.90	1/1	$395	$395	53%	68%	+$21	-$1,584	55.8%	$-1,644 (vs do-nothing $-815)
$76	15d	31 Jul 2026	$2.20	1/1	$440	$440	53%	68%	$-26	-$1,654	58.3%	$-1,714 (vs do-nothing $-885)
$76	8d	24 Jul 2026	$1.60	1/1	$600	$600	53%	68%	$-30	-$1,714	60.4%	$-1,774 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$75.50	22d	7 Aug 2026	$3.20	1/1	$436	$436	51%	68%	+$30	-$1,604	56.5%	$-1,664 (vs do-nothing $-835)
$75.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$2.50	1/1	$500	$500	50%	67%	$-16	-$1,674	59.0%	$-1,734 (vs do-nothing $-905)
$75	22d	7 Aug 2026	$3.40	1/1	$464	$464	48%	67%	+$23	-$1,634	57.6%	$-1,694 (vs do-nothing $-865)
$75	15d	31 Jul 2026	$2.70	1/1	$540	$540	47%	65%	$-30	-$1,704	60.0%	$-1,764 (vs do-nothing $-935)
$74.50	22d	7 Aug 2026	$3.70	1/1	$505	$505	46%	66%	+$28	-$1,654	58.3%	$-1,714 (vs do-nothing $-885)
$75	8d	24 Jul 2026	$2.10	1/1	$788	$788	45%	65%	$-39	-$1,764	62.1%	$-1,824 (vs do-nothing $-995)
$74.50	15d	31 Jul 2026	$3.10	1/1	$620	$620	44%	65%	$-7	-$1,714	60.4%	$-1,774 (vs do-nothing $-945)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-16 21:38