FORTRESS FIGHT: COPX @ $74.45

BE SS: $93.40  |  CC-SS: $95.02  |  1 contracts (100 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-17 03:39

COPX @ $74.45   UNDERWATER $18.95 (20.3% below BE SS)

PARTIAL: 19 of 20 contracts already capped (19x $82C). FIGHTing the 1 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

1 of 20 contracts (100 sh uncapped)  |  BE SS: $93.40  |  CC-SS: $95.02 (banked floor $94.67)  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $65 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $38.858/sh)
SP: $90 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $19.960/sh)
HP: $68 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $9.525/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$5,040(ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 100
Normal income ref$525/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $71/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-1,985fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$262/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$525/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
5.4 mo to earn back $2,840
ML VELOCITY
9.6 mo to earn back $5,040
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $95.02 (probe: $92C 14d) brings only $11/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$35
Hole (after banked)
$1,950
was $1,985 · 2% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$760
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$95.02 → $94.67
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
19x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026U6241782$0.40$7602026-07-11
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 24 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 30 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $90.18 (+21%) · daily UBB $83.05 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 1 contract at $78 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($262/mo); it brings $279/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $75/7d for $686/mo, but breach risk rises to 44% (+22pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $81.50/7d (92% survival, $64/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $1,637 (58% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $93, recoverable in 3.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-1,992 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 1 × $78, 78% survival, $279/mo (E[net] $28/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆24 Jul 2026 · 7d1 × $7878%$279$28

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $28/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $78 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $279/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $79 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 22% → 17%) for $86/mo less (31% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $79 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect COPX to stay flat-to-down near term.
COPX  spot $74.45 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
🛡 safe yield1 × $81.5024 Jul7d9.5%92%15%+2pp$15$64-$214$1,337
Sell 1 × $81.50 9.5% OTM over spot $74.45 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid)
= $15 credit for the 7d cycle → $64/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $81.50)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $81.72)
93%
EV / mo
+$27
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
48% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$48/mo
median; plan ~$32/mo after 68% keep · $344 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.8-4.5], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$172
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$87 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.64/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $1.59–$2.65)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.72/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 318 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $83 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8231 Jul 202610d left+$0.74/sh+$74
cycle +$89
[+$66…+$114] · 99% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$1,241 NOT
cap gain +$744
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$8331 Jul 202610d left+$0.16/sh+$16
cycle +$31
[-$3…+$43] · 73% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$1,155 NOT
cap gain +$830
Max even-money escape in the band~$8714 Aug 202624d left+$0.19/sh+$19
cycle +$34
[-$9…+$54] · 68% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$827 NOT
cap gain +$1,158
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$64/mo
vs 50% target ($262/mo)-76%
vs normal income ($525/mo)12% covered
Net income (after hedge)$64/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $81.50 is $14 below CC-SS $95.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$1,337
… as % of IC ($2,840)47.1%
… as % of ML ($5,040)26.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-1,992
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $81.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $83.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $80.69Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$81-81.72
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $81.72
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$81.50 (1.6σ)$15$-1,315+$670+$10
+2.5%$83.54 (2.0σ)$-189$-1,330+$655-$194
+5%$85.58 (2.5σ)$-393$-1,344+$641-$398
SS (= V-bounce)$93.40 (4.2σ)$-1,175$-1,400+$585-$1,040
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-1,985
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,911
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $81.50): -$1,337
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,411 (+$574 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-371 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,040, the opportunity cost of earning $64/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $90.18 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$853, position total $-1,377 (+$608 vs today)
33% normal ← lean1 × $7924 Jul7d6.1%83%34%+8pp$45$193-$86$1,557
Sell 1 × $79 6.1% OTM over spot $74.45 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid)
= $45 credit for the 7d cycle → $193/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $79)
83%
Breach risk
17%
POP (stays ≤ $79.60)
86%
EV / mo
+$72
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+8pp
50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.3/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$112/mo
median; plan ~$76/mo after 68% keep · $814 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.6-5.2], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
25%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$130
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$86 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.47/sh now → $1.75 mid-life (likely $1.64–$2.72)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.30/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 738 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $80 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$7931 Jul 202610d left+$0.69/sh+$69
cycle +$114
[+$48…+$92] · 99% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$1,448 NOT
cap gain +$537
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$8314 Aug 202624d left+$0.29/sh+$29
cycle +$74
[-$14…+$51] · 62% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$1,112 NOT
cap gain +$873
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$8131 Jul 202610d left+$0.10/sh+$10
cycle +$55
[-$19…+$29] · 50% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$1,363 NOT
cap gain +$622
Max even-money escape in the band~$8414 Aug 202624d left+$0.08/sh+$8
cycle +$53
[-$36…+$30] · 41% credit
77%
surv 72%
-$1,040 NOT
cap gain +$945
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$8614 Aug 202624d left-$0.28/sh-$28
cycle +$17
[-$80…-$10] · 19% credit
80%
surv 76%
-$937 NOT
cap gain +$1,048
budget: banked $45 debit $28 (63% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $183/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$193/mo
vs 50% target ($262/mo)-27%
vs normal income ($525/mo)37% covered
Net income (after hedge)$193/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $79 is $16 below CC-SS $95.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$1,557
… as % of IC ($2,840)54.8%
… as % of ML ($5,040)30.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-2,000
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $79.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $83.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $78.21Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$78-79.60
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $79.60
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$79.00 (1.0σ)$45$-1,517+$468+$40
+2.5%$80.97 (1.4σ)$-152$-1,531+$454-$157
+5%$82.95 (1.9σ)$-350$-1,545+$440-$355
SS (= V-bounce)$93.40 (4.2σ)$-1,395$-1,620+$365-$1,260
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-1,985
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,911
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $79): -$1,557
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,631 (+$354 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-371 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,260, the opportunity cost of earning $193/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $90.18 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,073, position total $-1,597 (+$388 vs today)
🎯 50% normal1 × $7824 Jul7d4.8%78%34%+16pp$65$279$1,637
Sell 1 × $78 4.8% OTM over spot $74.45 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.73 mid)
= $65 credit for the 7d cycle → $279/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $78)
78%
Breach risk
22%
POP (stays ≤ $78.72)
82%
EV / mo
+$92
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+16pp
57% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$141/mo
median; plan ~$96/mo after 68% keep · $965 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.5], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
34%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$105
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$86 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.41/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.79–$2.75)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,030 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $79 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$7831 Jul 202610d left+$0.67/sh+$67
cycle +$132
[+$41…+$80] · 98% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$1,523 NOT
cap gain +$462
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$8214 Aug 202624d left+$0.50/sh+$50
cycle +$115
[+$7…+$59] · 80% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$1,210 NOT
cap gain +$775
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$8031 Jul 202610d left+$0.08/sh+$8
cycle +$73
[-$25…+$14] · 37% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$1,438 NOT
cap gain +$547
Max even-money escape in the band~$8314 Aug 202624d left+$0.04/sh+$4
cycle +$69
[-$47…+$9] · 30% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$1,117 NOT
cap gain +$868
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$8614 Aug 202624d left-$0.63/sh-$63
cycle +$2
[-$131…-$63] · 4% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$952 NOT
cap gain +$1,033
budget: banked $65 debit $63 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $134/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$279/mo
vs 50% target ($262/mo)+6%
vs normal income ($525/mo)53% covered
Net income (after hedge)$279/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $78 is $17 below CC-SS $95.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$1,637
… as % of IC ($2,840)57.6%
… as % of ML ($5,040)32.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-1,992
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $78.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $83.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $77.22Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$77-78.72
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $78.72
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$78.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$65$-1,590+$395+$60
+2.5%$79.95 (1.2σ)$-130$-1,604+$381-$135
+5%$81.90 (1.6σ)$-325$-1,618+$367-$330
SS (= V-bounce)$93.40 (4.2σ)$-1,475$-1,700+$285-$1,340
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-1,985
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,911
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $78): -$1,637
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,711 (+$274 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-371 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,340, the opportunity cost of earning $279/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $90.18 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,153, position total $-1,677 (+$308 vs today)
100% normal1 × $7524 Jul7d0.7%56%90%+18pp$160$686+$407$1,842
Sell 1 × $75 0.7% OTM over spot $74.45 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.75 mid)
= $160 credit for the 7d cycle → $686/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $75)
56%
Breach risk
44%
POP (stays ≤ $76.75)
70%
EV / mo
+$109
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+18pp
67% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~8.5/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$215/mo
median; plan ~$146/mo after 68% keep · $1,110 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-4.7], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
72%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$3
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)
$87 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $2.13–$3.16)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,167 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $76 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$7531 Jul 202610d left+$0.62/sh+$62
cycle +$222
[+$22…+$44] · 93% credit
67%
surv 51%
-$1,712 NOT
cap gain +$273
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$7814 Aug 202624d left+$0.66/sh+$66
cycle +$226
[+$1…+$38] · 76% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$1,471 NOT
cap gain +$514
Max even-money escape in the band~$7914 Aug 202624d left+$0.13/sh+$13
cycle +$173
[-$67…-$22] · 13% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$1,385 NOT
cap gain +$600
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$7731 Jul 202610d left+$0.03/sh+$3
cycle +$163
[-$50…-$21] · 11% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$1,627 NOT
cap gain +$358
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$8714 Aug 202624d left-$1.07/sh-$107
cycle +$53
[-$228…-$151]
91%
surv 90%
-$808 NOT
cap gain +$1,177
budget: banked $160 debit $107 (67% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $63/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$686/mo
vs 50% target ($262/mo)+161%
vs normal income ($525/mo)131% covered
Net income (after hedge)$686/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $75 is $20 below CC-SS $95.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$1,842
… as % of IC ($2,840)64.8%
… as % of ML ($5,040)36.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-2,000
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $76.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $83.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $74.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$74-76.75
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $76.75
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$75.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$160$-1,774+$211+$155
+2.5%$76.88 (≤1σ, normal week)$-28$-1,787+$198-$32
+5%$78.75 (≤1σ, normal week)$-215$-1,801+$184-$220
SS (= V-bounce)$93.40 (4.2σ)$-1,680$-1,905+$80-$1,545
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-1,985
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,911
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $75): -$1,842
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,916 (+$69 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-371 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,545, the opportunity cost of earning $686/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $90.18 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,358, position total $-1,882 (+$103 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COPX are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (36 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.929 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$1,911 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-371

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$787d24 Jul 2026$0.651/1$279$27978%82%+$92-$1,63757.6%$-1,711 (vs do-nothing $-1,340)
$7814d31 Jul 2026$1.251/1$268$26872%78%+$78-$1,57755.5%$-1,651 (vs do-nothing $-1,280)
$777d24 Jul 2026$0.901/1$386$38671%78%+$105-$1,71260.3%$-1,786 (vs do-nothing $-1,415)
$77.5014d31 Jul 2026$1.401/1$300$30069%77%+$82-$1,61256.7%$-1,686 (vs do-nothing $-1,315)
$76.507d24 Jul 2026$1.001/1$429$42968%76%+$89-$1,75261.7%$-1,826 (vs do-nothing $-1,455)
$7714d31 Jul 2026$1.551/1$332$33267%75%+$82-$1,64758.0%$-1,721 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$7721d7 Aug 2026$1.851/1$264$26465%73%+$33-$1,61756.9%$-1,691 (vs do-nothing $-1,320)
$76.5014d31 Jul 2026$1.701/1$364$36464%74%+$79-$1,68259.2%$-1,756 (vs do-nothing $-1,385)
$767d24 Jul 2026$1.201/1$514$51464%74%+$106-$1,78262.7%$-1,856 (vs do-nothing $-1,485)
$76.5021d7 Aug 2026$2.001/1$286$28662%73%+$29-$1,65258.2%$-1,726 (vs do-nothing $-1,355)
$76.5028d14 Aug 2026$2.551/1$273$27361%73%+$40-$1,59756.2%$-1,671 (vs do-nothing $-1,300)
$7614d31 Jul 2026$1.901/1$407$40761%72%+$83-$1,71260.3%$-1,786 (vs do-nothing $-1,415)
$7621d7 Aug 2026$2.351/1$336$33660%72%+$52-$1,66758.7%$-1,741 (vs do-nothing $-1,370)
Show 23 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$7628d14 Aug 2026$2.701/1$289$28959%71%+$36-$1,63257.4%$-1,706 (vs do-nothing $-1,335)
$75.5014d31 Jul 2026$2.101/1$450$45058%71%+$82-$1,74261.3%$-1,816 (vs do-nothing $-1,445)
$75.5021d7 Aug 2026$2.451/1$350$35057%70%+$37-$1,70760.1%$-1,781 (vs do-nothing $-1,410)
$75.5028d14 Aug 2026$3.001/1$321$32157%70%+$46-$1,65258.2%$-1,726 (vs do-nothing $-1,355)
$757d24 Jul 2026$1.601/1$686$68656%70%+$109-$1,84264.8%$-1,916 (vs do-nothing $-1,545)
$7514d31 Jul 2026$2.351/1$504$50455%70%+$89-$1,76762.2%$-1,841 (vs do-nothing $-1,470)
$7521d7 Aug 2026$2.651/1$379$37955%69%+$35-$1,73761.1%$-1,811 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$7528d14 Aug 2026$3.201/1$343$34355%69%+$44-$1,68259.2%$-1,756 (vs do-nothing $-1,385)
$74.5028d14 Aug 2026$3.401/1$364$36453%69%+$40-$1,71260.3%$-1,786 (vs do-nothing $-1,415)
$74.5021d7 Aug 2026$3.001/1$429$42952%68%+$52-$1,75261.7%$-1,826 (vs do-nothing $-1,455)
$74.5014d31 Jul 2026$2.451/1$525$52552%68%+$64-$1,80763.6%$-1,881 (vs do-nothing $-1,510)
$7428d14 Aug 2026$3.701/1$396$39650%68%+$46-$1,73261.0%$-1,806 (vs do-nothing $-1,435)
$7421d7 Aug 2026$3.301/1$471$47150%67%+$59-$1,77262.4%$-1,846 (vs do-nothing $-1,475)
$7414d31 Jul 2026$2.801/1$600$60049%67%+$86-$1,82264.1%$-1,896 (vs do-nothing $-1,525)
$73.5028d14 Aug 2026$3.901/1$418$41848%66%+$39-$1,76262.0%$-1,836 (vs do-nothing $-1,465)
$747d24 Jul 2026$2.101/1$900$90047%66%+$113-$1,89266.6%$-1,966 (vs do-nothing $-1,595)
$73.5021d7 Aug 2026$3.501/1$500$50047%66%+$50-$1,80263.4%$-1,876 (vs do-nothing $-1,505)
$7328d14 Aug 2026$4.301/1$461$46146%66%+$53-$1,77262.4%$-1,846 (vs do-nothing $-1,475)
$73.5014d31 Jul 2026$3.001/1$643$64346%65%+$71-$1,85265.2%$-1,926 (vs do-nothing $-1,555)
$7321d7 Aug 2026$3.801/1$543$54345%65%+$54-$1,82264.1%$-1,896 (vs do-nothing $-1,525)
$73.507d24 Jul 2026$2.401/1$1,029$1,02943%64%+$120-$1,91267.3%$-1,986 (vs do-nothing $-1,615)
$7314d31 Jul 2026$3.301/1$707$70743%64%+$74-$1,87265.9%$-1,946 (vs do-nothing $-1,575)
$737d24 Jul 2026$2.601/1$1,114$1,11439%63%+$73-$1,94268.4%$-2,016 (vs do-nothing $-1,645)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-17 03:39