FORTRESS FIGHT: COPX @ $73.35

BE SS: $93.40  |  CC-SS: $93.99  |  20 contracts (2,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-19 19:27

COPX @ $73.35   UNDERWATER $20.05 (21.5% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $93.40  |  CC-SS: $93.99 (banked floor $93.59)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $65 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $38.858/sh)
SP: $90 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $19.960/sh)
HP: $68 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $9.525/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$100,800(ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000
Normal income ref$12,000/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,503/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-39,280fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,000/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$12,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.7 mo to earn back $56,800
ML VELOCITY
8.4 mo to earn back $100,800
Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $93.99 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $85C (12d, $750/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$795
Hole (after banked)
$38,485
was $39,280 · 2% earned back
Cycles closed
2
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$93.99 → $93.59
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 19 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 21 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $90.26 (+23%) · daily UBB $81.39 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 1 contract at $84 / 5d. This is the safest strike (survival 99+%, breach 0%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($6,000/mo); it brings $30/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 20 × $80/5d for $1,200/mo, but breach risk rises to 5% (+4pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $994 (2% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $93, recoverable in 0.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-1,976 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · sell 1 × $84, 99+% survival, $30/mo (E[net] $30/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆24 Jul 2026 · 5d1 × $8499+%$30$30

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 5d · E[net] $30/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $84 (hedge), 99+% survival, breach 0%, $30/mo.
This is already the safest rung on the ladder, take it.
COPX  spot $73.35 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸🎯 hedge1 × $8424 Jul5d14.5%99+%1%+0pp$5$30—$994
Sell 1 × $84 14.5% OTM over spot $73.35 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.17 mid)
= $5 credit for the 5d cycle → $30/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $84)
99+%
Breach risk
0%
POP (stays ≤ $84.17)
99+%
EV / mo
+$29
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+0pp
46% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$307/mo
median; plan ~$209/mo after 68% keep · $2,749 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.0-5.6], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$30/mo
vs 50% target ($6,000/mo)-100%
vs normal income ($12,000/mo)0% covered
Net income (after hedge)$330/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $84 is $10 below CC-SS $93.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$994
… as % of IC ($56,800)1.8%
… as % of ML ($100,800)1.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-1,976
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $93.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,280
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,654
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $84): -$994
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (19 × $90): -$7,398
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,018 (+$29,262 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,413 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-605, the opportunity cost of earning $30/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $90.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$621, position total $-9,361 (+$29,919 vs today)
▸🛡 safe yield20 × $8024 Jul5d9.1%95%9%+3pp$200$1,200+$1,170$27,787
Sell 20 × $80 9.1% OTM over spot $73.35 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.17 mid)
= $200 credit for the 5d cycle → $1,200/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $80)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $80.17)
96%
EV / mo
+$810
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
49% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$981/mo
median; plan ~$667/mo after 68% keep · $7,068 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.0-5.6], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,200/mo
vs 50% target ($6,000/mo)-80%
vs normal income ($12,000/mo)10% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,200/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $80 is $14 below CC-SS $93.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$27,787
… as % of IC ($56,800)48.9%
… as % of ML ($100,800)27.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.3 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-39,430
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $93.99, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,280
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,654
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $80): -$27,787
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,413 (+$9,867 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,413 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,000, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $90.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,320, position total $-28,756 (+$10,524 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COPX are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (26 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.912 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$37,654 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,413

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$7712d31 Jul 2026$1.2020/20$6,000$6,00073%80%+$2,091-$31,58755.6%$-33,213 (vs do-nothing $-23,800)
$76.5012d31 Jul 2026$1.2520/20$6,250$6,25071%78%+$1,734-$32,48757.2%$-34,113 (vs do-nothing $-24,700)
$7612d31 Jul 2026$1.4517/20$6,162$6,21068%76%+$1,740-$28,12449.5%$-30,918 (vs do-nothing $-21,505)
$7619d7 Aug 2026$1.9520/20$6,158$6,15865%75%+$1,447-$32,08756.5%$-33,713 (vs do-nothing $-24,300)
$75.5012d31 Jul 2026$1.6015/20$6,000$6,07965%76%+$1,518-$25,34044.6%$-28,913 (vs do-nothing $-19,500)
$75.5019d7 Aug 2026$2.0019/20$6,000$6,01663%73%+$1,049-$31,33855.2%$-33,353 (vs do-nothing $-23,940)
$7512d31 Jul 2026$1.2020/20$6,000$6,00062%72%$-840-$35,58762.7%$-37,213 (vs do-nothing $-27,800)
$7519d7 Aug 2026$2.2018/20$6,253$6,28461%72%+$1,069-$30,22853.2%$-32,633 (vs do-nothing $-23,220)
$7526d14 Aug 2026$2.8019/20$6,138$6,15460%72%+$1,227-$30,76854.2%$-32,783 (vs do-nothing $-23,370)
$74.5012d31 Jul 2026$1.9513/20$6,338$6,44859%72%+$1,268-$22,80740.2%$-27,158 (vs do-nothing $-17,745)
$74.5019d7 Aug 2026$2.5515/20$6,039$6,11858%72%+$1,273-$25,41544.7%$-28,988 (vs do-nothing $-19,575)
$74.5026d14 Aug 2026$2.9018/20$6,023$6,05558%71%+$948-$29,86852.6%$-32,273 (vs do-nothing $-22,860)
$7412d31 Jul 2026$2.0512/20$6,150$6,27656%70%+$836-$21,53237.9%$-26,273 (vs do-nothing $-16,860)
Show 13 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$7419d7 Aug 2026$2.6015/20$6,158$6,23755%70%+$907-$26,09045.9%$-29,663 (vs do-nothing $-20,250)
$7426d14 Aug 2026$3.1017/20$6,081$6,12855%70%+$864-$28,71950.6%$-31,513 (vs do-nothing $-22,100)
$73.5026d14 Aug 2026$3.4016/20$6,277$6,34053%69%+$1,013-$27,35048.2%$-30,533 (vs do-nothing $-21,120)
$73.5019d7 Aug 2026$3.0013/20$6,158$6,26853%69%+$1,153-$22,74240.0%$-27,093 (vs do-nothing $-17,680)
$73.5012d31 Jul 2026$2.4010/20$6,000$6,15853%70%+$1,151-$18,09331.9%$-23,613 (vs do-nothing $-14,200)
$7326d14 Aug 2026$3.5015/20$6,058$6,13751%68%+$708-$26,24046.2%$-29,813 (vs do-nothing $-20,400)
$7319d7 Aug 2026$3.1013/20$6,363$6,47450%68%+$868-$23,26241.0%$-27,613 (vs do-nothing $-18,200)
$7312d31 Jul 2026$2.5510/20$6,375$6,53349%67%+$737-$18,44332.5%$-23,963 (vs do-nothing $-14,550)
$72.5026d14 Aug 2026$3.8014/20$6,138$6,23348%67%+$734-$24,77143.6%$-28,733 (vs do-nothing $-19,320)
$72.5019d7 Aug 2026$3.5011/20$6,079$6,22147%67%+$985-$19,79334.8%$-24,923 (vs do-nothing $-15,510)
$7226d14 Aug 2026$4.2013/20$6,300$6,41146%66%+$877-$23,13240.7%$-27,483 (vs do-nothing $-18,070)
$7219d7 Aug 2026$3.6011/20$6,253$6,39545%65%+$683-$20,23335.6%$-25,363 (vs do-nothing $-15,950)
$7212d31 Jul 2026$3.208/20$6,400$6,58942%65%+$919-$15,03526.5%$-21,333 (vs do-nothing $-11,920)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-19 19:27