20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.99 (banked floor $95.59) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,029/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,530/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-40,940 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 17 × $78 | 84% | $4,250 | $1,076 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 13 × $76.50 | 64% | $4,290 | $642 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $80 | 24 Jul | 3d | 7.1% | 93% | 13% | +4pp | $200 | $2,000 | -$2,250 | $31,772 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $80 7.1% OTM over spot $74.72 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $80.12) 94% EV / mo +$1,007 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,508/mo median; plan ~$1,025/mo after 68% keep · $10,054 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-5.0], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,091 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $87 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.62/sh now → $1.15 mid-life (likely $0.98–$1.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 147 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $81 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $16 below CC-SS $95.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $80.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,205 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $80): -$31,772 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,507 (+$7,433 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,507 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,000, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,380, position total $-32,618 (+$8,322 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 11 × $78 | 24 Jul | 3d | 4.4% | 84% | 33% | +7pp | $275 | $2,750 | -$1,500 | $19,509 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $78 4.4% OTM over spot $74.72 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid) = $275 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $78.28) 85% EV / mo +$655 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,807/mo median; plan ~$1,229/mo after 68% keep · $12,665 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.6-4.7], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$919 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $85 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.06–$2.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 499 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $79 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $18 below CC-SS $95.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $78.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,205 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $78): -$19,509 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $90): -$5,297 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,542 (+$14,398 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,507 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,035, the opportunity cost of earning $2,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,244, position total $-25,653 (+$15,287 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $78 | 24 Jul | 3d | 4.4% | 84% | 17% | +9pp | $425 | $4,250 | — | $30,151 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $78 4.4% OTM over spot $74.72 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid) = $425 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $78.28) 85% EV / mo +$1,012 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,541/mo median; plan ~$1,728/mo after 68% keep · $16,175 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.7-4.4], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,421 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $85 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.07–$1.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 516 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $79 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $18 below CC-SS $95.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $78.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,205 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $78): -$30,151 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $90): -$1,766 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,652 (+$7,288 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,507 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,145, the opportunity cost of earning $4,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,468, position total $-32,763 (+$8,177 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $76.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 2.4% | 71% | 59% | +15pp | $825 | $8,250 | +$4,000 | $28,404 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $76.50 2.4% OTM over spot $74.72 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.60 mid) = $825 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76.50) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $77.10) 77% EV / mo +$1,199 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,665/mo median; plan ~$2,492/mo after 68% keep · $23,179 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.6-5.3], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$738 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $87 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.47/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $1.21–$2.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,085 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $78 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76.50 is $19 below CC-SS $95.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $77.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,205 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $76.50): -$28,404 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$2,943 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,082 (+$7,858 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,507 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,575, the opportunity cost of earning $8,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,860, position total $-32,193 (+$8,747 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $82.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 10.4% | 92% | 17% | +0pp | $100 | $300 | -$3,990 | $26,872 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $82.50 10.4% OTM over spot $74.72 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.17 mid) = $100 credit for the 10d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $82.67) 92% EV / mo $-419 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 41% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $299/mo median; plan ~$204/mo after 68% keep · $2,327 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-4.8], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,548 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $86 @ 73% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.58/sh now → $1.82 mid-life (likely $1.45–$2.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $84 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82.50 is $13 below CC-SS $95.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $82.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,205 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $82.50): -$26,872 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,607 (+$12,333 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,507 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,100, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,480, position total $-27,718 (+$13,222 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $79 | 31 Jul | 10d | 5.7% | 79% | 44% | +5pp | $900 | $2,700 | -$1,590 | $33,072 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $79 5.7% OTM over spot $74.72 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.57 mid) = $900 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $79.58) 81% EV / mo $-264 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,404/mo median; plan ~$955/mo after 68% keep · $10,551 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-5.3], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,432 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $82 @ 73% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.73–$2.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,037 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $80 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $17 below CC-SS $95.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $79.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,205 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $79): -$33,072 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,807 (+$6,133 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,507 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,300, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,680, position total $-33,918 (+$7,022 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 13 × $76.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 2.4% | 64% | 60% | +6pp | $1,430 | $4,290 | — | $23,902 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $76.50 2.4% OTM over spot $74.72 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.23 mid) = $1,430 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $77.72) 71% EV / mo $-224 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,694/mo median; plan ~$1,152/mo after 68% keep · $12,328 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [2.0-5.5], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$595 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $84 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.20/sh now → $1.56 mid-life (likely $1.97–$2.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,802 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $78 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76.50 is $19 below CC-SS $95.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $77.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,205 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $76.50): -$23,902 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $90): -$4,120 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,757 (+$11,183 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,507 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,250, the opportunity cost of earning $4,290/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,497, position total $-28,868 (+$12,072 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $75.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 1.0% | 57% | 89% | +13pp | $2,790 | $8,370 | +$4,080 | $34,084 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $75.50 1.0% OTM over spot $74.72 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.70 mid) = $2,790 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,370/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $77.20) 68% EV / mo +$21 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,769/mo median; plan ~$1,883/mo after 68% keep · $17,751 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.4], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$63 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $86 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $2.08–$2.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,184 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $77 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75.50 is $20 below CC-SS $95.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.55 collected) or spot ≥ $77.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,205 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $75.50): -$34,084 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $90): -$1,177 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,997 (+$3,943 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,507 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,490, the opportunity cost of earning $8,370/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,832, position total $-36,108 (+$4,832 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.922 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$39,205 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-13,507
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 17/20 | $4,250 | $4,303 | 84% | 85% | +$1,012 | -$30,151 | 53.1% | $-33,652 (vs do-nothing $-20,145) |
| $77 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 11/20 | $4,400 | $4,559 | 76% | 80% | +$521 | -$20,444 | 36.0% | $-27,477 (vs do-nothing $-13,970) |
| $76.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 8/20 | $4,400 | $4,612 | 71% | 77% | +$639 | -$15,149 | 26.7% | $-23,947 (vs do-nothing $-10,440) |
| $78 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 19/20 | $4,024 | $4,041 | 69% | 75% | +$81 | -$31,893 | 56.1% | $-34,217 (vs do-nothing $-20,710) |
| $76 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 7/20 | $4,550 | $4,779 | 67% | 75% | +$931 | -$13,535 | 23.8% | $-22,922 (vs do-nothing $-9,415) |
| $78 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.75 | 19/20 | $4,156 | $4,174 | 67% | 74% | +$352 | -$30,848 | 54.3% | $-33,172 (vs do-nothing $-19,665) |
| $77.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 16/20 | $4,094 | $4,165 | 67% | 74% | +$357 | -$27,257 | 48.0% | $-31,347 (vs do-nothing $-17,840) |
| $77.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 19/20 | $4,038 | $4,055 | 65% | 72% | $-149 | -$31,893 | 56.1% | $-34,217 (vs do-nothing $-20,710) |
| $76.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 13/20 | $4,290 | $4,414 | 64% | 71% | $-224 | -$23,902 | 42.1% | $-29,757 (vs do-nothing $-16,250) |
| $77 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 16/20 | $4,200 | $4,271 | 63% | 72% | +$326 | -$27,017 | 47.6% | $-31,107 (vs do-nothing $-17,600) |
| $76.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 13/20 | $4,129 | $4,253 | 62% | 71% | +$313 | -$22,992 | 40.5% | $-28,847 (vs do-nothing $-15,340) |
| $76.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.30 | 14/20 | $4,025 | $4,131 | 60% | 71% | +$308 | -$24,060 | 42.4% | $-29,327 (vs do-nothing $-15,820) |
| $76 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.95 | 12/20 | $4,129 | $4,271 | 59% | 69% | +$197 | -$21,643 | 38.1% | $-28,087 (vs do-nothing $-14,580) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.20 | 15/20 | $4,125 | $4,213 | 58% | 69% | $-232 | -$26,679 | 47.0% | $-31,357 (vs do-nothing $-17,850) |
| $75.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 9/20 | $4,185 | $4,379 | 57% | 68% | +$10 | -$17,042 | 30.0% | $-25,252 (vs do-nothing $-11,745) |
| $75.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 12/20 | $4,024 | $4,165 | 56% | 68% | $-354 | -$22,303 | 39.3% | $-28,747 (vs do-nothing $-15,240) |
| $75.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.65 | 13/20 | $4,306 | $4,430 | 56% | 68% | +$185 | -$23,187 | 40.8% | $-29,042 (vs do-nothing $-15,535) |
| $75 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 5/20 | $5,000 | $5,265 | 54% | 68% | +$534 | -$9,993 | 17.6% | $-20,557 (vs do-nothing $-7,050) |
| $75 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 14/20 | $4,200 | $4,306 | 54% | 66% | $-634 | -$26,020 | 45.8% | $-31,287 (vs do-nothing $-17,780) |
| $75 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 8/20 | $4,200 | $4,412 | 53% | 66% | $-53 | -$15,389 | 27.1% | $-24,187 (vs do-nothing $-10,680) |
| $75 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 10/20 | $4,235 | $4,412 | 53% | 67% | +$187 | -$18,586 | 32.7% | $-26,207 (vs do-nothing $-12,700) |
| $74.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.75 | 12/20 | $4,125 | $4,266 | 51% | 66% | $-378 | -$22,483 | 39.6% | $-28,927 (vs do-nothing $-15,420) |
| $74.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.50 | 10/20 | $4,412 | $4,588 | 51% | 65% | $-66 | -$18,986 | 33.4% | $-26,607 (vs do-nothing $-13,100) |
| $74.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 7/20 | $4,200 | $4,429 | 50% | 64% | $-41 | -$13,640 | 24.0% | $-23,027 (vs do-nothing $-9,520) |
| $74 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 10/20 | $4,125 | $4,301 | 49% | 66% | +$56 | -$18,686 | 32.9% | $-26,307 (vs do-nothing $-12,800) |
| $74 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.85 | 8/20 | $4,024 | $4,235 | 48% | 64% | +$73 | -$15,309 | 27.0% | $-24,107 (vs do-nothing $-10,600) |
| $73.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.40 | 10/20 | $4,250 | $4,426 | 47% | 64% | $-153 | -$19,086 | 33.6% | $-26,707 (vs do-nothing $-13,200) |
| $74 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 7/20 | $4,620 | $4,849 | 46% | 67% | $-187 | -$13,850 | 24.4% | $-23,237 (vs do-nothing $-9,730) |
| $73.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.50 | 10/20 | $4,412 | $4,588 | 45% | 62% | $-1,017 | -$19,986 | 35.2% | $-27,607 (vs do-nothing $-14,100) |
| $74 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 3/20 | $4,350 | $4,650 | 41% | 62% | +$86 | -$6,161 | 10.8% | $-17,902 (vs do-nothing $-4,395) |
| $73.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 3/20 | $5,100 | $5,400 | 35% | 59% | $-127 | -$6,236 | 11.0% | $-17,977 (vs do-nothing $-4,470) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.