20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $96.11 (banked floor $95.71) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,471/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,530/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-40,940 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 17 × $78 | 83% | $4,250 | $455 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 17 × $77 | 66% | $4,335 | $-160 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $80 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.9% | 93% | 14% | +5pp | $200 | $2,000 | -$2,250 | $32,019 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $80 6.9% OTM over spot $74.87 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $80.12) 93% EV / mo +$882 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,483/mo median; plan ~$1,008/mo after 68% keep · $10,054 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.7-5.1], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,922 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $87 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $0.96–$1.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 241 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $81 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $16 below CC-SS $96.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $80.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,174 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $80): -$32,019 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,784 (+$7,156 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,884 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,900, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,380, position total $-32,876 (+$8,064 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 12 × $78 | 24 Jul | 3d | 4.2% | 83% | 35% | +8pp | $300 | $3,000 | -$1,250 | $21,431 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $78 4.2% OTM over spot $74.87 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid) = $300 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $78.28) 84% EV / mo +$480 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,870/mo median; plan ~$1,272/mo after 68% keep · $12,760 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-5.0], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$910 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $85 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now → $1.01 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 687 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $79 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $18 below CC-SS $96.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $78.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,174 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $78): -$21,431 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $82.50): -$10,847 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,044 (+$6,896 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,884 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,160, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,448, position total $-33,136 (+$7,804 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $78 | 24 Jul | 3d | 4.2% | 83% | 22% | +10pp | $425 | $4,250 | — | $30,361 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $78 4.2% OTM over spot $74.87 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid) = $425 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $78.28) 84% EV / mo +$679 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,493/mo median; plan ~$1,695/mo after 68% keep · $15,870 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.6-4.7], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,290 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $85 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now → $1.01 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 664 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $79 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $18 below CC-SS $96.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $78.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,174 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $78): -$30,361 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $82.50): -$4,068 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,194 (+$4,746 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,884 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,310, the opportunity cost of earning $4,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,468, position total $-35,286 (+$5,654 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 16 × $76.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 2.2% | 69% | 62% | +15pp | $880 | $8,800 | +$4,550 | $30,495 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $76.50 2.2% OTM over spot $74.87 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.60 mid) = $880 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $77.10) 75% EV / mo +$645 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,744/mo median; plan ~$2,546/mo after 68% keep · $22,887 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-5.0], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$672 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $87 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $1.16–$1.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,258 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $78 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76.50 is $20 below CC-SS $96.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $77.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,174 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $76.50): -$30,495 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $82.50): -$5,424 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,684 (+$3,256 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,884 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,800, the opportunity cost of earning $8,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,184, position total $-36,776 (+$4,164 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $82.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 10.2% | 91% | 19% | +0pp | $100 | $300 | -$4,035 | $27,119 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $82.50 10.2% OTM over spot $74.87 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.17 mid) = $100 credit for the 10d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $82.67) 91% EV / mo $-592 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $341/mo median; plan ~$232/mo after 68% keep · $2,694 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-4.8], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,563 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $86 @ 72% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.59/sh now → $1.83 mid-life (likely $1.51–$2.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 376 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $84 (overshoots $1.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82.50 is $14 below CC-SS $96.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $82.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,174 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $82.50): -$27,119 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,884 (+$12,056 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,884 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,480, position total $-27,976 (+$12,964 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $78 | 31 Jul | 10d | 4.2% | 72% | 57% | +5pp | $975 | $2,925 | -$1,410 | $26,189 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $78 4.2% OTM over spot $74.87 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.90 mid) = $975 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,925/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $78.90) 77% EV / mo $-487 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,359/mo median; plan ~$924/mo after 68% keep · $10,371 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.9-5.0], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,467 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $83 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.30/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.79–$2.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,343 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $79 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $18 below CC-SS $96.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $78.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,174 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $78): -$26,189 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $82.50): -$6,780 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,734 (+$6,206 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,884 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,850, the opportunity cost of earning $2,925/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,460, position total $-33,826 (+$7,114 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $77 | 31 Jul | 10d | 2.9% | 66% | 56% | +7pp | $1,445 | $4,335 | — | $31,041 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $77 2.9% OTM over spot $74.87 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.02 mid) = $1,445 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,335/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $78.03) 72% EV / mo $-973 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,734/mo median; plan ~$1,179/mo after 68% keep · $13,211 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.7-4.6], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,248 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $84 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.24/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.93–$2.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,669 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $78 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $19 below CC-SS $96.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $78.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,174 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $77): -$31,041 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $82.50): -$4,068 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,874 (+$4,066 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,884 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,990, the opportunity cost of earning $4,335/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,148, position total $-35,966 (+$4,974 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $75.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 0.8% | 56% | 91% | +12pp | $2,945 | $8,835 | +$4,500 | $36,213 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $75.50 0.8% OTM over spot $74.87 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.70 mid) = $2,945 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,835/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75.50) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $77.20) 67% EV / mo $-341 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,805/mo median; plan ~$1,907/mo after 68% keep · $18,267 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.9-5.5], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$57 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $86 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.15/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $2.09–$2.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,208 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $77 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75.50 is $21 below CC-SS $96.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.55 collected) or spot ≥ $77.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,174 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $75.50): -$36,213 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $82.50): -$1,356 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,334 (+$1,606 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,884 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,450, the opportunity cost of earning $8,835/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,156, position total $-38,426 (+$2,514 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.922 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$39,174 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-28,884
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 17/20 | $4,250 | $4,295 | 83% | 84% | +$679 | -$30,361 | 53.5% | $-36,194 (vs do-nothing $-7,310) |
| $77 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 11/20 | $4,400 | $4,535 | 74% | 79% | +$171 | -$20,580 | 36.2% | $-34,549 (vs do-nothing $-5,665) |
| $76.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 8/20 | $4,400 | $4,580 | 69% | 75% | +$323 | -$15,247 | 26.8% | $-33,284 (vs do-nothing $-4,400) |
| $78 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 20/20 | $4,235 | $4,235 | 68% | 74% | $-209 | -$33,819 | 59.5% | $-35,584 (vs do-nothing $-6,700) |
| $77 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 17/20 | $4,335 | $4,380 | 66% | 72% | $-973 | -$31,041 | 54.6% | $-36,874 (vs do-nothing $-7,990) |
| $78 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.75 | 20/20 | $4,375 | $4,375 | 66% | 73% | +$158 | -$32,719 | 57.6% | $-34,484 (vs do-nothing $-5,600) |
| $77.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 17/20 | $4,350 | $4,395 | 66% | 73% | +$109 | -$29,171 | 51.4% | $-35,004 (vs do-nothing $-6,120) |
| $76 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 7/20 | $4,550 | $4,745 | 64% | 72% | $-106 | -$13,621 | 24.0% | $-33,014 (vs do-nothing $-4,130) |
| $77.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 20/20 | $4,250 | $4,250 | 64% | 72% | $-383 | -$33,819 | 59.5% | $-35,584 (vs do-nothing $-6,700) |
| $76.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 13/20 | $4,290 | $4,395 | 63% | 71% | $-428 | -$24,062 | 42.4% | $-35,319 (vs do-nothing $-6,435) |
| $77 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 17/20 | $4,462 | $4,508 | 62% | 71% | +$146 | -$28,916 | 50.9% | $-34,749 (vs do-nothing $-5,865) |
| $76.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 14/20 | $4,447 | $4,537 | 61% | 70% | +$197 | -$24,933 | 43.9% | $-34,834 (vs do-nothing $-5,950) |
| $76.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.30 | 15/20 | $4,312 | $4,388 | 60% | 70% | +$146 | -$25,964 | 45.7% | $-34,509 (vs do-nothing $-5,625) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.95 | 13/20 | $4,474 | $4,579 | 58% | 69% | +$72 | -$23,607 | 41.6% | $-34,864 (vs do-nothing $-5,980) |
| $76 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.20 | 16/20 | $4,400 | $4,460 | 57% | 68% | $-451 | -$28,655 | 50.4% | $-35,844 (vs do-nothing $-6,960) |
| $75.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 10/20 | $4,650 | $4,800 | 56% | 67% | $-179 | -$19,059 | 33.6% | $-34,384 (vs do-nothing $-5,500) |
| $75.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 13/20 | $4,359 | $4,464 | 55% | 67% | $-534 | -$24,322 | 42.8% | $-35,579 (vs do-nothing $-6,695) |
| $75.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.65 | 13/20 | $4,306 | $4,411 | 55% | 67% | +$13 | -$23,347 | 41.1% | $-34,604 (vs do-nothing $-5,720) |
| $75 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 15/20 | $4,500 | $4,575 | 53% | 65% | $-884 | -$28,064 | 49.4% | $-36,609 (vs do-nothing $-7,725) |
| $75 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 10/20 | $4,235 | $4,385 | 53% | 66% | +$63 | -$18,709 | 32.9% | $-34,034 (vs do-nothing $-5,150) |
| $75 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 5/20 | $5,000 | $5,225 | 52% | 65% | $-390 | -$10,055 | 17.7% | $-32,159 (vs do-nothing $-3,275) |
| $75 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 9/20 | $4,725 | $4,890 | 52% | 65% | $-218 | -$17,423 | 30.7% | $-34,104 (vs do-nothing $-5,220) |
| $74.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.50 | 10/20 | $4,412 | $4,562 | 50% | 64% | $-199 | -$19,109 | 33.6% | $-34,434 (vs do-nothing $-5,550) |
| $74.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 8/20 | $4,800 | $4,980 | 49% | 63% | $-190 | -$15,687 | 27.6% | $-33,724 (vs do-nothing $-4,840) |
| $74 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.85 | 9/20 | $4,526 | $4,691 | 47% | 64% | $-45 | -$17,333 | 30.5% | $-34,014 (vs do-nothing $-5,130) |
| $74 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 7/20 | $4,620 | $4,815 | 45% | 66% | $-312 | -$13,936 | 24.5% | $-33,329 (vs do-nothing $-4,445) |
| $73.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.50 | 10/20 | $4,412 | $4,562 | 44% | 61% | $-1,166 | -$20,109 | 35.4% | $-35,434 (vs do-nothing $-6,550) |
| $73.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 11/20 | $4,290 | $4,425 | 42% | 57% | $-4,419 | -$23,440 | 41.3% | $-37,409 (vs do-nothing $-8,525) |
| $74 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 3/20 | $4,350 | $4,605 | 41% | 59% | $-548 | -$6,198 | 10.9% | $-31,014 (vs do-nothing $-2,130) |
| $73.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 3/20 | $5,100 | $5,355 | 35% | 56% | $-783 | -$6,273 | 11.0% | $-31,089 (vs do-nothing $-2,205) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.