20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $96.47 (banked floor $96.08) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $6,706/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,530/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-40,940 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 14 × $78 | 81% | $3,500 | $580 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 18 × $78 | 70% | $3,510 | $-494 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $80 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.3% | 91% | 18% | -1pp | $200 | $2,000 | -$1,500 | $32,748 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $80 6.3% OTM over spot $75.29 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $80.12) 92% EV / mo +$419 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,432/mo median; plan ~$974/mo after 68% keep · $9,701 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.7-5.0], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,591 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $87 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.27/sh now → $0.90 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 235 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $81 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $16 below CC-SS $96.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $80.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,063 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $80): -$32,748 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,625 (+$6,315 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,825 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,800, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,380, position total $-33,660 (+$7,280 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $78 | 24 Jul | 3d | 3.6% | 81% | 37% | +2pp | $225 | $2,250 | -$1,250 | $16,401 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $78 3.6% OTM over spot $75.29 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid) = $225 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $78.28) 84% EV / mo +$392 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,274/mo median; plan ~$1,546/mo after 68% keep · $17,610 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [1.9-5.7], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$539 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $85 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.20/sh now → $0.85 mid-life (likely $0.88–$1.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 748 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $79 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $18 below CC-SS $96.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $78.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,063 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $78): -$16,401 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $82): -$15,371 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,650 (+$7,290 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,825 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,825, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,836, position total $-32,685 (+$8,255 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 14 × $78 | 24 Jul | 3d | 3.6% | 81% | 25% | +6pp | $350 | $3,500 | — | $25,513 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $78 3.6% OTM over spot $75.29 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid) = $350 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $78.28) 84% EV / mo +$610 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,542/mo median; plan ~$1,728/mo after 68% keep · $17,963 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.7-5.4], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$839 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $85 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.20/sh now → $0.85 mid-life (likely $0.88–$1.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 737 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $79 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $18 below CC-SS $96.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $78.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,063 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $78): -$25,513 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $82): -$8,384 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,775 (+$5,165 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,825 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,950, the opportunity cost of earning $3,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,856, position total $-34,810 (+$6,130 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $77 | 24 Jul | 3d | 2.3% | 72% | 57% | +8pp | $680 | $6,800 | +$3,300 | $32,425 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $77 2.3% OTM over spot $75.29 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.48 mid) = $680 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $77.47) 77% EV / mo $-45 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,363/mo median; plan ~$2,287/mo after 68% keep · $21,563 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.9-5.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$724 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $87 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.98–$1.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,149 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $78 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $19 below CC-SS $96.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $77.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,063 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $77): -$32,425 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $82): -$4,192 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,495 (+$2,445 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,825 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,670, the opportunity cost of earning $6,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,913, position total $-37,530 (+$3,410 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $79 | 31 Jul | 10d | 4.9% | 75% | 51% | -2pp | $765 | $2,295 | -$1,215 | $28,940 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $79 4.9% OTM over spot $75.29 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.57 mid) = $765 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,295/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $79.58) 78% EV / mo $-943 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,350/mo median; plan ~$918/mo after 68% keep · $10,232 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [1.9-5.5], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,810 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $84 @ 76% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now → $1.51 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,217 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $80 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $17 below CC-SS $96.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $79.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,063 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $79): -$28,940 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $82): -$4,192 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,010 (+$5,930 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,825 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,185, the opportunity cost of earning $2,295/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,428, position total $-34,045 (+$6,895 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $78 | 31 Jul | 10d | 3.6% | 70% | 50% | -0pp | $1,170 | $3,510 | — | $32,083 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $78 3.6% OTM over spot $75.29 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.90 mid) = $1,170 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $78.90) 75% EV / mo $-1,233 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,652/mo median; plan ~$1,123/mo after 68% keep · $12,214 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [1.9-5.9], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,485 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $83 @ 77% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.74–$2.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,508 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $79 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $18 below CC-SS $96.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $78.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,063 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $78): -$32,083 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $82): -$2,795 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,755 (+$4,185 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,825 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,930, the opportunity cost of earning $3,510/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,952, position total $-35,790 (+$5,150 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $75.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 0.3% | 53% | 97% | +4pp | $2,325 | $6,975 | +$3,465 | $29,136 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $75.50 0.3% OTM over spot $75.29 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.70 mid) = $2,325 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $77.20) 64% EV / mo $-1,182 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,524/mo median; plan ~$1,717/mo after 68% keep · $16,654 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [1.9-5.3], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 79% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$259 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $86 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.94–$2.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,370 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $77 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75.50 is $21 below CC-SS $96.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.55 collected) or spot ≥ $77.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,063 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $75.50): -$29,136 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $82): -$6,987 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,000 (+$2,940 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,825 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,175, the opportunity cost of earning $6,975/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.29 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,860, position total $-37,035 (+$3,905 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.922 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$39,063 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-29,825
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 14/20 | $3,500 | $4,029 | 81% | 84% | +$610 | -$25,513 | 44.9% | $-35,775 (vs do-nothing $-5,950) |
| $77 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 9/20 | $3,600 | $4,571 | 72% | 77% | $-24 | -$17,166 | 30.2% | $-34,415 (vs do-nothing $-4,590) |
| $79 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 19/20 | $3,521 | $3,609 | 71% | 76% | $-92 | -$31,205 | 54.9% | $-34,480 (vs do-nothing $-4,655) |
| $78 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 18/20 | $3,510 | $3,686 | 70% | 75% | $-1,233 | -$32,083 | 56.5% | $-36,755 (vs do-nothing $-6,930) |
| $78.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 19/20 | $3,444 | $3,532 | 66% | 73% | $-460 | -$31,395 | 55.3% | $-34,670 (vs do-nothing $-4,845) |
| $78 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 16/20 | $3,388 | $3,741 | 66% | 72% | $-458 | -$27,638 | 48.7% | $-35,105 (vs do-nothing $-5,280) |
| $76.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 7/20 | $3,850 | $4,997 | 66% | 73% | +$43 | -$13,597 | 23.9% | $-33,640 (vs do-nothing $-3,815) |
| $78 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.75 | 16/20 | $3,500 | $3,853 | 64% | 72% | $-112 | -$26,758 | 47.1% | $-34,225 (vs do-nothing $-4,400) |
| $77.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 14/20 | $3,582 | $4,112 | 64% | 71% | $-189 | -$24,533 | 43.2% | $-34,795 (vs do-nothing $-4,970) |
| $77.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 16/20 | $3,400 | $3,753 | 62% | 70% | $-563 | -$27,638 | 48.7% | $-35,105 (vs do-nothing $-5,280) |
| $77 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 19/20 | $3,353 | $3,441 | 61% | 68% | $-2,366 | -$35,100 | 61.8% | $-38,375 (vs do-nothing $-8,550) |
| $77 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 13/20 | $3,412 | $4,030 | 60% | 69% | $-113 | -$22,586 | 39.8% | $-34,245 (vs do-nothing $-4,420) |
| $76 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 6/20 | $3,900 | $5,135 | 60% | 69% | $-412 | -$11,894 | 20.9% | $-33,335 (vs do-nothing $-3,510) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 11/20 | $3,630 | $4,424 | 60% | 68% | $-918 | -$20,761 | 36.6% | $-35,215 (vs do-nothing $-5,390) |
| $76.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 11/20 | $3,494 | $4,288 | 58% | 68% | $-196 | -$19,991 | 35.2% | $-34,445 (vs do-nothing $-4,620) |
| $76.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.30 | 12/20 | $3,450 | $4,156 | 58% | 68% | $-108 | -$21,209 | 37.3% | $-34,265 (vs do-nothing $-4,440) |
| $76 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.95 | 10/20 | $3,441 | $4,324 | 56% | 66% | $-287 | -$18,524 | 32.6% | $-34,375 (vs do-nothing $-4,550) |
| $75.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 10/20 | $3,353 | $4,235 | 53% | 65% | $-778 | -$19,074 | 33.6% | $-34,925 (vs do-nothing $-5,100) |
| $75.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 8/20 | $3,720 | $4,779 | 53% | 64% | $-631 | -$15,539 | 27.4% | $-34,185 (vs do-nothing $-4,360) |
| $75 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 8/20 | $3,388 | $4,447 | 50% | 64% | $-262 | -$15,259 | 26.9% | $-33,905 (vs do-nothing $-4,080) |
| $75 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 7/20 | $3,675 | $4,822 | 49% | 63% | $-656 | -$13,807 | 24.3% | $-33,850 (vs do-nothing $-4,025) |
| $74.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.50 | 8/20 | $3,529 | $4,588 | 48% | 62% | $-491 | -$15,579 | 27.4% | $-34,225 (vs do-nothing $-4,400) |
| $75 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 4/20 | $4,000 | $5,412 | 47% | 62% | $-719 | -$8,190 | 14.4% | $-32,425 (vs do-nothing $-2,600) |
| $74 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.85 | 7/20 | $3,521 | $4,668 | 45% | 61% | $-342 | -$13,737 | 24.2% | $-33,780 (vs do-nothing $-3,955) |
| $74 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 6/20 | $3,960 | $5,195 | 42% | 63% | $-766 | -$12,164 | 21.4% | $-33,605 (vs do-nothing $-3,780) |
| $74 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 3/20 | $4,350 | $5,850 | 34% | 55% | $-1,030 | -$6,307 | 11.1% | $-31,940 (vs do-nothing $-2,115) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.