20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.96 (banked floor $94.57) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,788/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,421/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-35,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 13 × $78 | 67% | $4,550 | $-3,943 |
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 18 × $79.50 | 70% | $4,590 | $-600 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $78 | 24 Jul | 3d | 1.7% | 67% | 67% | +7pp | $315 | $3,150 | -$1,400 | $14,953 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $78 1.7% OTM over spot $76.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.73 mid) = $315 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $78.72) 75% EV / mo $-1,697 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,455/mo median; plan ~$990/mo after 68% keep · $10,324 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.6-5.0], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$991 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $82 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.05/sh now → $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.75–$3.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,423 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $79 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $17 below CC-SS $94.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $78.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $78.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,208 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $78): -$14,953 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $90): -$5,351 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,295 (+$13,905 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,575, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,665, position total $-20,695 (+$14,505 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 13 × $78 | 24 Jul | 3d | 1.7% | 67% | 45% | +8pp | $455 | $4,550 | — | $21,598 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $78 1.7% OTM over spot $76.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.73 mid) = $455 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $78.72) 75% EV / mo $-2,451 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,931/mo median; plan ~$1,313/mo after 68% keep · $11,801 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.9], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,431 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $82 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.05/sh now → $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.81–$3.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,351 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $79 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $17 below CC-SS $94.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $78.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $78.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,208 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $78): -$21,598 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $90): -$3,405 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,995 (+$9,205 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,275, the opportunity cost of earning $4,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,405, position total $-25,395 (+$9,805 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $77 | 24 Jul | 3d | 0.4% | 55% | 92% | +12pp | $900 | $9,000 | +$4,450 | $17,064 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $77 0.4% OTM over spot $76.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.18 mid) = $900 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $78.17) 69% EV / mo $-157 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~14.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,856/mo median; plan ~$1,942/mo after 68% keep · $17,884 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-5.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$512 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $81 @ 80% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.00/sh now → $1.41 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,937 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 3, at $78 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $18 below CC-SS $94.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $78.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $78.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,208 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $77): -$17,064 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $90): -$4,864 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,920 (+$12,280 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,200, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,300, position total $-22,320 (+$12,880 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $90 | 14 Aug | 24d | 17.3% | 91% | 18% | -1pp | $300 | $375 | -$4,215 | $9,628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $90 17.3% OTM over spot $76.71 14 Aug 2026 (24d, $0.57 mid) = $300 credit for the 24d cycle → $375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $90.58) 92% EV / mo $-243 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $276/mo median; plan ~$188/mo after 68% keep · $1,679 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-3.5], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,789 Free roll-up none Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.72/sh now → $4.04 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $5 below CC-SS $94.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $90.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $78.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,208 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $90): -$9,628 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,620 (+$24,580 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$100, the opportunity cost of earning $375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$100, position total $-10,020 (+$25,180 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $80.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 4.9% | 75% | 50% | +6pp | $1,020 | $3,060 | -$1,530 | $23,569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $80.50 4.9% OTM over spot $76.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.93 mid) = $1,020 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,060/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $81.42) 80% EV / mo $-138 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,535/mo median; plan ~$1,043/mo after 68% keep · $10,645 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.7-4.7], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,418 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $84 @ 73% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.86/sh now → $2.02 mid-life (likely $2.22–$3.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,168 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $82 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80.50 is $14 below CC-SS $94.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $81.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $78.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,208 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $80.50): -$23,569 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $90): -$1,459 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,020 (+$9,180 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,300, the opportunity cost of earning $3,060/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,470, position total $-25,420 (+$9,780 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $79.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 3.6% | 70% | 49% | +6pp | $1,530 | $4,590 | — | $26,305 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $79.50 3.6% OTM over spot $76.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.20 mid) = $1,530 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,590/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $80.70) 77% EV / mo $-104 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,008/mo median; plan ~$1,365/mo after 68% keep · $11,668 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.2], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,015 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $84 @ 75% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.78/sh now → $1.97 mid-life (likely $2.32–$3.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,464 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $81 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79.50 is $15 below CC-SS $94.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $80.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $78.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,208 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $79.50): -$26,305 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $90): -$973 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,270 (+$6,930 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,550, the opportunity cost of earning $4,590/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,730, position total $-27,670 (+$7,530 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $77.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 1.0% | 57% | 89% | +12pp | $2,945 | $8,835 | +$4,245 | $30,237 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $77.50 1.0% OTM over spot $76.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.77 mid) = $2,945 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,835/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $79.28) 69% EV / mo $-66 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,984/mo median; plan ~$2,029/mo after 68% keep · $17,209 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-4.6], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$600 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $86 @ 85% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.64/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $2.56–$3.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,194 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $79 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77.50 is $17 below CC-SS $94.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.55 collected) or spot ≥ $79.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $78.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,208 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $77.50): -$30,237 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $90): -$486 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,715 (+$3,485 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,995, the opportunity cost of earning $8,835/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,185, position total $-31,115 (+$4,085 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.937 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$34,208 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,720
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $79.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 18/20 | $4,590 | $4,625 | 70% | 77% | $-104 | -$26,305 | 46.3% | $-28,270 (vs do-nothing $-17,550) |
| $79 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 16/20 | $4,560 | $4,631 | 67% | 75% | $-311 | -$24,023 | 42.3% | $-26,960 (vs do-nothing $-16,240) |
| $78 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 13/20 | $4,550 | $4,674 | 67% | 75% | $-2,451 | -$21,598 | 38.0% | $-25,995 (vs do-nothing $-15,275) |
| $80 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 20/20 | $4,625 | $4,625 | 66% | 74% | +$415 | -$26,228 | 46.2% | $-27,220 (vs do-nothing $-16,500) |
| $79.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.25 | 20/20 | $4,412 | $4,412 | 66% | 74% | $-503 | -$28,428 | 50.0% | $-29,420 (vs do-nothing $-18,700) |
| $79 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 20/20 | $4,588 | $4,588 | 64% | 72% | $-894 | -$29,328 | 51.6% | $-30,320 (vs do-nothing $-19,600) |
| $78.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 18/20 | $4,590 | $4,625 | 64% | 72% | $-1,772 | -$28,105 | 49.5% | $-30,070 (vs do-nothing $-19,350) |
| $79 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 18/20 | $4,612 | $4,648 | 62% | 73% | +$76 | -$25,045 | 44.1% | $-27,010 (vs do-nothing $-16,290) |
| $78.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 14/20 | $4,571 | $4,676 | 61% | 72% | +$298 | -$20,460 | 36.0% | $-24,370 (vs do-nothing $-13,650) |
| $78 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 12/20 | $4,680 | $4,821 | 60% | 71% | $-217 | -$18,797 | 33.1% | $-23,680 (vs do-nothing $-12,960) |
| $78.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 17/20 | $4,462 | $4,515 | 60% | 71% | $-215 | -$24,419 | 43.0% | $-26,870 (vs do-nothing $-16,150) |
| $78 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 14/20 | $4,694 | $4,800 | 59% | 70% | $-52 | -$21,090 | 37.1% | $-25,000 (vs do-nothing $-14,280) |
| $78 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.35 | 15/20 | $4,406 | $4,494 | 58% | 70% | $-93 | -$21,921 | 38.6% | $-25,345 (vs do-nothing $-14,625) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 10/20 | $4,650 | $4,826 | 57% | 69% | $-35 | -$15,914 | 28.0% | $-21,770 (vs do-nothing $-11,050) |
| $77.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 12/20 | $4,553 | $4,694 | 56% | 69% | +$45 | -$18,377 | 32.4% | $-23,260 (vs do-nothing $-12,540) |
| $77.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.75 | 13/20 | $4,469 | $4,592 | 56% | 69% | +$225 | -$19,128 | 33.7% | $-23,525 (vs do-nothing $-12,805) |
| $77 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 5/20 | $4,500 | $4,765 | 55% | 69% | $-78 | -$8,532 | 15.0% | $-16,820 (vs do-nothing $-6,100) |
| $77 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $4,500 | $4,641 | 54% | 68% | +$244 | -$17,957 | 31.6% | $-22,840 (vs do-nothing $-12,120) |
| $77 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 9/20 | $4,725 | $4,919 | 54% | 67% | $-90 | -$14,593 | 25.7% | $-20,935 (vs do-nothing $-10,215) |
| $77 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 11/20 | $4,659 | $4,818 | 53% | 68% | +$91 | -$17,121 | 30.1% | $-22,490 (vs do-nothing $-11,770) |
| $76.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 11/20 | $4,400 | $4,559 | 51% | 67% | +$168 | -$16,791 | 29.6% | $-22,160 (vs do-nothing $-11,440) |
| $76.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.70 | 10/20 | $4,765 | $4,941 | 51% | 67% | +$187 | -$15,764 | 27.8% | $-21,620 (vs do-nothing $-10,900) |
| $76.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 8/20 | $4,920 | $5,132 | 50% | 66% | +$59 | -$13,131 | 23.1% | $-19,960 (vs do-nothing $-9,240) |
| $76 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 11/20 | $4,812 | $4,971 | 49% | 66% | +$231 | -$17,011 | 29.9% | $-22,380 (vs do-nothing $-11,660) |
| $76.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 4/20 | $4,400 | $4,682 | 48% | 68% | $-237 | -$6,946 | 12.2% | $-15,720 (vs do-nothing $-5,000) |
| $76 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.90 | 9/20 | $4,606 | $4,800 | 48% | 66% | +$76 | -$14,458 | 25.5% | $-20,800 (vs do-nothing $-10,080) |
| $75.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 10/20 | $4,625 | $4,801 | 47% | 66% | +$125 | -$15,764 | 27.8% | $-21,620 (vs do-nothing $-10,900) |
| $76 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 7/20 | $4,725 | $4,954 | 46% | 64% | $-80 | -$11,700 | 20.6% | $-19,015 (vs do-nothing $-8,295) |
| $75.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 9/20 | $4,924 | $5,118 | 45% | 64% | $-44 | -$14,728 | 25.9% | $-21,070 (vs do-nothing $-10,350) |
| $75.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 7/20 | $4,830 | $5,059 | 43% | 63% | $-571 | -$12,015 | 21.2% | $-19,330 (vs do-nothing $-8,610) |
| $76 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 4/20 | $5,200 | $5,482 | 43% | 64% | $-1,032 | -$7,066 | 12.4% | $-15,840 (vs do-nothing $-5,120) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.