20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $94.68 (banked floor $94.02) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,331/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-35,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $80.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.58 | $1,166 | 2026-07-28 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 2d | 15 × $78.50 | 77% | $5,625 | $-1,920 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 9d | 19 × $78.50 | 67% | $5,383 | $-4,652 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $82 | 31 Jul | 2d | 7.8% | 95%hist 100% | 10%hist 5% | +3pp | $200 | $3,000 | -$2,625 | $25,164 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $82 7.8% OTM over spot $76.05 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.50 mid) = $200 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $82.50) 96% EV / mo +$1,956 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,346/mo median; plan ~$1,596/mo after 68% keep · $10,865 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,111 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $86 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.05/sh now → $2.16 mid-life (likely $2.04–$4.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 132 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $83 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $13 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $82.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,880 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $82): -$25,164 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,185 (+$9,715 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,085 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,100, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,200, position total $-25,611 (+$10,289 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $79 | 31 Jul | 2d | 3.9% | 81%hist 99% | 39%hist 18% | +7pp | $240 | $3,600 | -$2,025 | $24,852 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $79 3.9% OTM over spot $76.05 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.62 mid) = $240 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $79.62) 85% EV / mo $-2,359 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,089/mo median; plan ~$1,421/mo after 68% keep · $10,419 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,978 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $83 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.84/sh now → $2.01 mid-life (likely $2.25–$4.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 645 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $80 (overshoots $1.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $16 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $79.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,880 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $79): -$24,852 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $90): -$1,813 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,685 (+$8,215 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,085 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,600, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,680, position total $-27,111 (+$8,789 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 15 × $78.50 | 31 Jul | 2d | 3.2% | 77%hist 96% | 47%hist 28% | +6pp | $375 | $5,625 | — | $23,898 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $78.50 3.2% OTM over spot $76.05 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.62 mid) = $375 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $79.12) 82% EV / mo $-1,807 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,913/mo median; plan ~$1,981/mo after 68% keep · $14,345 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.0-4.3], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,606 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $82 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.81/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.28–$4.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 847 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $80 (overshoots $1.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78.50 is $16 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $79.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,880 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $78.50): -$23,898 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$2,266 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,185 (+$8,715 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,085 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,100, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,175, position total $-26,611 (+$9,289 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 11 × $76 | 31 Jul | 2d | -0.1% | 50%hist 79% | 100%hist 90% | · | $770 | $11,550 | +$5,925 | $19,780 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $76 0.1% ITM over spot $76.05 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.70 mid) = $770 credit for the 2d cycle → $11,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $77.70) 70% EV / mo $-7,331 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,289 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $82 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.65/sh now → $1.87 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76 is $19 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $77.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,880 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $76): -$19,780 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $90): -$4,079 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,880 (+$11,020 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,085 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,795, the opportunity cost of earning $11,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,850, position total $-24,306 (+$11,594 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $85 | 7 Aug | 9d | 11.8% | 93%hist 100% | 15%hist 5% | -1pp | $100 | $333 | -$5,050 | $19,264 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $85 11.8% OTM over spot $76.05 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.23 mid) = $100 credit for the 9d cycle → $333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $85.22) 93% EV / mo $-386 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $320/mo median; plan ~$217/mo after 68% keep · $2,179 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.8], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,494 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $87 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.95/sh now → $2.80 mid-life (likely $2.17–$3.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 321 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $86 (overshoots $1.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $10 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $85.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,880 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $85): -$19,264 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,285 (+$15,615 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,085 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,200, the opportunity cost of earning $333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,300, position total $-19,711 (+$16,189 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $79 | 7 Aug | 9d | 3.9% | 70%hist 96% | 61%hist 51% | +7pp | $1,050 | $3,500 | -$1,883 | $22,473 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $79 3.9% OTM over spot $76.05 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.45 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $80.45) 78% EV / mo $-1,040 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,630/mo median; plan ~$1,108/mo after 68% keep · $10,379 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,575 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $83 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.42/sh now → $2.42 mid-life (likely $2.86–$4.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,454 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $80 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $16 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $80.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,880 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $79): -$22,473 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$2,266 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,760 (+$10,140 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,085 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,675, the opportunity cost of earning $3,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,750, position total $-25,186 (+$10,714 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $78.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 3.2% | 67%hist 80% | 67%hist 51% | +7pp | $1,615 | $5,383 | — | $29,131 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $78.50 3.2% OTM over spot $76.05 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.62 mid) = $1,615 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,383/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $80.12) 76% EV / mo $-1,292 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,148/mo median; plan ~$1,461/mo after 68% keep · $12,770 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.4-4.8], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,919 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $82 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.37/sh now → $2.39 mid-life (likely $2.92–$4.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,657 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $80 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78.50 is $16 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $80.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,880 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $78.50): -$29,131 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $90): -$453 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,605 (+$5,295 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,085 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,520, the opportunity cost of earning $5,383/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,615, position total $-30,031 (+$5,869 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $76.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 0.6% | 55%hist 79% | 94%hist 90% | +12pp | $3,240 | $10,800 | +$5,417 | $29,488 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $76.50 0.6% OTM over spot $76.05 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.50 mid) = $3,240 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $79.00) 70% EV / mo $-119 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,413/mo median; plan ~$2,321/mo after 68% keep · $16,707 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$840 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $85 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.21/sh now → $2.27 mid-life (likely $3.11–$4.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,318 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $78 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76.50 is $18 below CC-SS $94.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $79.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $94.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$34,880 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $76.50): -$29,488 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $90): -$906 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,415 (+$4,485 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,085 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,330, the opportunity cost of earning $10,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,420, position total $-30,841 (+$5,059 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.936 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$34,880 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,085
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 15/20 | $5,625 | $5,766 | 77% | 82% | $-1,807 | -$23,898 | 42.1% | $-27,185 (vs do-nothing $-17,100) |
| $78 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 11/20 | $5,775 | $6,028 | 72% | 79% | $-1,390 | -$17,965 | 31.6% | $-23,065 (vs do-nothing $-12,980) |
| $79.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 20/20 | $5,438 | $5,438 | 69% | 77% | +$758 | -$27,464 | 48.4% | $-28,485 (vs do-nothing $-18,400) |
| $78.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 19/20 | $5,383 | $5,411 | 67% | 76% | $-1,292 | -$29,131 | 51.3% | $-30,605 (vs do-nothing $-20,520) |
| $79.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 20/20 | $5,478 | $5,478 | 67% | 77% | +$1,105 | -$26,164 | 46.1% | $-27,185 (vs do-nothing $-17,100) |
| $78.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 16/20 | $5,400 | $5,512 | 64% | 75% | +$701 | -$23,012 | 40.5% | $-25,845 (vs do-nothing $-15,760) |
| $78 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 15/20 | $5,500 | $5,641 | 64% | 73% | $-587 | -$23,373 | 41.2% | $-26,660 (vs do-nothing $-16,575) |
| $78.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.20 | 19/20 | $5,452 | $5,480 | 63% | 73% | +$482 | -$26,566 | 46.8% | $-28,040 (vs do-nothing $-17,955) |
| $77 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 12/20 | $5,400 | $5,625 | 62% | 75% | $-7,625 | -$20,859 | 36.7% | $-25,505 (vs do-nothing $-15,420) |
| $78 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.60 | 18/20 | $5,400 | $5,456 | 62% | 73% | $-495 | -$27,148 | 47.8% | $-29,075 (vs do-nothing $-18,990) |
| $77.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 16/20 | $5,600 | $5,713 | 61% | 73% | $-1,862 | -$25,812 | 45.4% | $-28,645 (vs do-nothing $-18,560) |
| $78 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.45 | 17/20 | $5,433 | $5,517 | 61% | 73% | +$580 | -$24,195 | 42.6% | $-26,575 (vs do-nothing $-16,490) |
| $77.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 14/20 | $5,381 | $5,550 | 59% | 72% | +$283 | -$21,185 | 37.3% | $-24,925 (vs do-nothing $-14,840) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.50 | 17/20 | $5,543 | $5,628 | 59% | 72% | +$257 | -$24,960 | 43.9% | $-27,340 (vs do-nothing $-17,255) |
| $77 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 11/20 | $5,683 | $5,936 | 58% | 72% | $-182 | -$17,745 | 31.2% | $-22,845 (vs do-nothing $-12,760) |
| $77 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.30 | 13/20 | $5,606 | $5,803 | 57% | 71% | +$359 | -$19,997 | 35.2% | $-24,190 (vs do-nothing $-14,105) |
| $77 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.90 | 14/20 | $5,296 | $5,464 | 56% | 70% | +$196 | -$20,695 | 36.4% | $-24,435 (vs do-nothing $-14,350) |
| $76.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 12/20 | $5,400 | $5,625 | 56% | 72% | $-11,092 | -$21,459 | 37.8% | $-26,105 (vs do-nothing $-16,020) |
| $76.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 9/20 | $5,400 | $5,709 | 55% | 70% | $-60 | -$14,744 | 26.0% | $-20,750 (vs do-nothing $-10,665) |
| $76.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 13/20 | $5,257 | $5,453 | 54% | 69% | +$145 | -$19,607 | 34.5% | $-23,800 (vs do-nothing $-13,715) |
| $76.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.55 | 11/20 | $5,259 | $5,512 | 54% | 70% | +$354 | -$17,195 | 30.3% | $-22,295 (vs do-nothing $-12,210) |
| $76 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.40 | 12/20 | $5,322 | $5,547 | 52% | 69% | +$236 | -$18,339 | 32.3% | $-22,985 (vs do-nothing $-12,900) |
| $76 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.85 | 10/20 | $5,344 | $5,625 | 52% | 69% | +$432 | -$15,832 | 27.9% | $-21,385 (vs do-nothing $-11,300) |
| $76 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 8/20 | $5,600 | $5,938 | 51% | 68% | +$107 | -$13,266 | 23.4% | $-19,725 (vs do-nothing $-9,640) |
| $76 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 6/20 | $6,300 | $6,694 | 50% | 70% | $-3,999 | -$10,789 | 19.0% | $-18,155 (vs do-nothing $-8,070) |
| $75.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.60 | 12/20 | $5,635 | $5,860 | 50% | 68% | +$163 | -$18,699 | 32.9% | $-23,345 (vs do-nothing $-13,260) |
| $75.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 10/20 | $5,625 | $5,906 | 49% | 67% | +$231 | -$16,182 | 28.5% | $-21,735 (vs do-nothing $-11,650) |
| $75 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 11/20 | $5,596 | $5,849 | 48% | 67% | +$208 | -$17,360 | 30.6% | $-22,460 (vs do-nothing $-12,375) |
| $75.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.35 | 7/20 | $5,483 | $5,849 | 48% | 68% | +$71 | -$11,783 | 20.7% | $-18,695 (vs do-nothing $-8,610) |
| $75 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 9/20 | $5,569 | $5,878 | 47% | 67% | +$254 | -$14,744 | 26.0% | $-20,750 (vs do-nothing $-10,665) |
| $75 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.55 | 7/20 | $5,950 | $6,316 | 45% | 67% | $-115 | -$11,993 | 21.1% | $-18,905 (vs do-nothing $-8,820) |
| $75.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 4/20 | $6,000 | $6,450 | 44% | 68% | $-2,455 | -$7,273 | 12.8% | $-15,545 (vs do-nothing $-5,460) |
| $75 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 4/20 | $6,000 | $6,450 | 38% | 64% | $-4,263 | -$7,473 | 13.2% | $-15,745 (vs do-nothing $-5,660) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.