20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $96.32 (banked floor $95.66) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,422/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-35,120 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $80.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.58 | $1,166 | 2026-07-28 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 17 × $81 | 69% | $4,144 | $-573 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $87 | 7 Aug | 8d | 11.3% | 93%hist 100% | 15%hist 5% | +2pp | $200 | $750 | -$3,394 | $18,438 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $87 11.3% OTM over spot $78.20 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.22 mid) = $200 credit for the 8d cycle → $750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $87) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $87.22) 93% EV / mo $-4 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $553/mo median; plan ~$376/mo after 68% keep · $3,310 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.5], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,072 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $91 @ 71% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.31/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.29–$2.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $87 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $88 (overshoots $1.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $87 is $9 below CC-SS $96.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $87.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $87)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,883 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $87): -$18,438 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,675 (+$15,445 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,900, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,200, position total $-18,880 (+$16,240 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $82 | 7 Aug | 8d | 4.9% | 75%hist 96% | 51%hist 43% | +5pp | $750 | $2,812 | -$1,331 | $20,729 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $82 4.9% OTM over spot $78.20 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.75 mid) = $750 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $82.75) 79% EV / mo $-953 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,413/mo median; plan ~$961/mo after 68% keep · $7,591 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,431 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $87 @ 74% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.06/sh now → $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.54–$2.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,227 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $83 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $14 below CC-SS $96.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $82.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,883 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $82): -$20,729 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$635 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,600 (+$12,520 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,825, the opportunity cost of earning $2,812/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,550, position total $-24,205 (+$10,915 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $81 | 7 Aug | 8d | 3.6% | 69%hist 80% | 63%hist 51% | +5pp | $1,105 | $4,144 | — | $24,937 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $81 3.6% OTM over spot $78.20 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.85 mid) = $1,105 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,144/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $81.85) 74% EV / mo $-1,703 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,782/mo median; plan ~$1,212/mo after 68% keep · $7,727 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-3.9], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,308 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $89 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,458 simulated challenges: the $81 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $82 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81 is $15 below CC-SS $96.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $81.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,883 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $81): -$24,937 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $95): -$381 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,555 (+$8,565 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,780, the opportunity cost of earning $4,144/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,535, position total $-27,200 (+$7,920 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $78.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 0.4% | 54%hist 79% | 96%hist 90% | +10pp | $2,210 | $8,288 | +$4,144 | $28,082 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $78.50 0.4% OTM over spot $78.20 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.62 mid) = $2,210 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,288/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $80.12) 64% EV / mo $-3,426 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,505/mo median; plan ~$1,704/mo after 68% keep · $12,422 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.1-4.2], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$57 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $90 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.89/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.86–$2.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,333 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $80 (overshoots $1.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78.50 is $18 below CC-SS $96.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $80.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,883 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $78.50): -$28,082 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $95): -$381 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,700 (+$5,420 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,925, the opportunity cost of earning $8,288/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.20 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,680, position total $-30,345 (+$4,775 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.935 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,883 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,775
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 17/20 | $4,144 | $4,174 | 69% | 74% | $-1,703 | -$24,937 | 43.9% | $-26,555 (vs do-nothing $-22,780) |
| $82 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 19/20 | $4,016 | $4,026 | 67% | 73% | $-642 | -$24,261 | 42.7% | $-25,625 (vs do-nothing $-21,850) |
| $80.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 15/20 | $4,219 | $4,269 | 66% | 72% | $-1,772 | -$22,604 | 39.8% | $-24,475 (vs do-nothing $-20,700) |
| $81.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 16/20 | $4,036 | $4,076 | 65% | 73% | $-233 | -$20,751 | 36.5% | $-22,495 (vs do-nothing $-18,720) |
| $80 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 13/20 | $4,144 | $4,214 | 63% | 70% | $-1,853 | -$20,110 | 35.4% | $-22,235 (vs do-nothing $-18,460) |
| $80.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.35 | 15/20 | $4,050 | $4,100 | 63% | 70% | $-1,209 | -$21,704 | 38.2% | $-23,575 (vs do-nothing $-19,800) |
| $80 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 14/20 | $4,060 | $4,120 | 61% | 69% | $-1,359 | -$20,817 | 36.6% | $-22,815 (vs do-nothing $-19,040) |
| $79.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 11/20 | $4,125 | $4,215 | 60% | 68% | $-1,705 | -$17,401 | 30.6% | $-19,780 (vs do-nothing $-16,005) |
| $80 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 14/20 | $4,105 | $4,165 | 60% | 69% | $-667 | -$19,837 | 34.9% | $-21,835 (vs do-nothing $-18,060) |
| $79.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 15/20 | $4,200 | $4,250 | 58% | 67% | $-2,197 | -$23,129 | 40.7% | $-25,000 (vs do-nothing $-21,225) |
| $79.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 13/20 | $4,255 | $4,325 | 58% | 68% | $-532 | -$18,745 | 33.0% | $-20,870 (vs do-nothing $-17,095) |
| $79 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 11/20 | $4,125 | $4,215 | 57% | 65% | $-2,540 | -$17,951 | 31.6% | $-20,330 (vs do-nothing $-16,555) |
| $79 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 11/20 | $4,070 | $4,160 | 56% | 66% | $-1,085 | -$17,016 | 30.0% | $-19,395 (vs do-nothing $-15,620) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $79 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.60 | 12/20 | $4,255 | $4,335 | 56% | 67% | $-512 | -$17,663 | 31.1% | $-19,915 (vs do-nothing $-16,140) |
| $78.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.60 | 12/20 | $4,255 | $4,335 | 54% | 66% | $-880 | -$18,263 | 32.2% | $-20,515 (vs do-nothing $-16,740) |
| $78.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 9/20 | $4,388 | $4,498 | 54% | 64% | $-1,814 | -$14,867 | 26.2% | $-17,500 (vs do-nothing $-13,725) |
| $78.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 10/20 | $4,100 | $4,200 | 54% | 65% | $-1,037 | -$15,769 | 27.8% | $-18,275 (vs do-nothing $-14,500) |
| $78 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.85 | 11/20 | $4,275 | $4,365 | 52% | 64% | $-787 | -$17,016 | 30.0% | $-19,395 (vs do-nothing $-15,620) |
| $78 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.20 | 10/20 | $4,400 | $4,500 | 51% | 64% | $-1,217 | -$16,119 | 28.4% | $-18,625 (vs do-nothing $-14,850) |
| $78 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.50 | 8/20 | $4,500 | $4,620 | 50% | 62% | $-1,737 | -$13,455 | 23.7% | $-16,215 (vs do-nothing $-12,440) |
| $77.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.25 | 10/20 | $4,430 | $4,530 | 50% | 63% | $-512 | -$15,570 | 27.4% | $-18,076 (vs do-nothing $-14,301) |
| $77.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 9/20 | $4,320 | $4,430 | 49% | 62% | $-1,194 | -$14,777 | 26.0% | $-17,410 (vs do-nothing $-13,635) |
| $77 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 10/20 | $4,364 | $4,464 | 47% | 62% | $-936 | -$16,119 | 28.4% | $-18,625 (vs do-nothing $-14,850) |
| $77.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 7/20 | $4,462 | $4,592 | 47% | 60% | $-1,682 | -$11,983 | 21.1% | $-14,870 (vs do-nothing $-11,095) |
| $77 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.45 | 9/20 | $4,410 | $4,520 | 46% | 61% | $-1,588 | -$15,182 | 26.7% | $-17,815 (vs do-nothing $-14,040) |
| $77 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 6/20 | $4,275 | $4,415 | 43% | 58% | $-1,626 | -$10,451 | 18.4% | $-13,465 (vs do-nothing $-9,690) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.