FORTRESS FIGHT: COPX @ $89.72

BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.49 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

COPX @ $89.72 UNDERWATER $3.69 (3.9% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.49 (banked floor $94.25) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $65 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $38.858/sh)

SP: $90 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $19.960/sh)

HP: $68 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $9.525/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$100,800	(ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000
Normal income ref	$10,864/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,147/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,400	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,432/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$10,864/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.2 mo to earn back $56,800

ML VELOCITY
9.3 mo to earn back $100,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $95.49 (probe: $95C 14d) still earns $4,929/mo (45% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,500

Hole (after banked)

$8,900

was $11,400 · 22% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$2,611

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$95.49 → $94.25

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
20x $100C 18 Sep 2026	U6241782	$1.31	$2,611	2026-08-05

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 75 (live) · RSI 58 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 34 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $95.67 (+7%) · daily UBB $98.10 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $95.49 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 20 × $95.50 9 Oct 2026 (28d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $95.50)

71%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$3,800

Income / mo

$4,071

🎯 Recommended · sell 20 × $96 18 Sep 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $96)

85%

Touch odds

30%

Per cycle

$800

Income / mo

$3,429

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.94/sh now → $2.08 mid-life (likely $1.85–$3.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 575 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $97 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.73/sh	+$1,465 cycle +$2,265 [+$945…+$2,049] · 97% credit	66% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$101	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.45/sh	+$904 cycle +$1,704 [-$50…+$1,524] · 73% credit	74% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$98	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.17/sh	+$336 cycle +$1,136 [-$304…+$814] · 58% credit	71% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$102	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$295 cycle +$1,095 [-$746…+$886] · 50% credit	77% surv 72%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.28/sh	-$564 cycle +$236 [-$1,749…-$14] · 25% credit	79% surv 75%
budget: banked $800 debit $564 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$236 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,494/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 20 × $101 25 Sep 2026 (14d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $101)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$600

Income / mo

$1,286

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.72/sh now → $3.34 mid-life (likely $2.62–$4.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 383 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 14, at $102 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$101	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.28/sh	+$560 cycle +$1,160 [+$147…+$1,641] · 80% credit	65% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$101	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.23/sh	+$451 cycle +$1,051 [+$42…+$1,495] · 77% credit	66% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$103	9 Oct 2026	21d left	+$0.19/sh	+$387 cycle +$987 [-$145…+$1,647] · 69% credit	70% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$105	9 Oct 2026	21d left	-$0.01/sh	-$19 cycle +$581 [-$524…+$1,133] · 57% credit	74% surv 65%
budget: banked $600 debit $19 (3% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$581 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $9,509/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (42 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 42 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.004 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,588 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $16

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$94	7d	18 Sep 2026	$0.70	19/20	$5,700	$5,971	77%	82%	+$1,115	-$1,494	2.6%	$-1,314 (vs do-nothing $-1,330)
$93	7d	18 Sep 2026	$0.95	14/20	$5,700	$7,329	72%	79%	+$1,090	-$2,151	3.8%	$-2,014 (vs do-nothing $-2,030)
$92.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$0.95	14/20	$5,700	$7,329	69%	76%	+$340	-$2,851	5.0%	$-2,714 (vs do-nothing $-2,730)
$93	14d	25 Sep 2026	$1.55	17/20	$5,646	$6,461	68%	75%	+$740	-$1,591	2.8%	$-1,429 (vs do-nothing $-1,445)
$94	28d	9 Oct 2026	$2.85	18/20	$5,496	$6,039	67%	75%	+$1,386	-$0	0.0%	$2,626 (vs do-nothing +$2,610)
$92	7d	18 Sep 2026	$1.20	11/20	$5,657	$8,100	66%	74%	+$776	-$2,515	4.4%	$-2,404 (vs do-nothing $-2,420)
$92.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$1.80	15/20	$5,786	$7,143	66%	74%	+$1,031	-$1,779	3.1%	$-1,634 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$93	21d	2 Oct 2026	$2.10	19/20	$5,700	$5,971	65%	73%	+$265	-$734	1.3%	$-554 (vs do-nothing $-570)
$93	28d	9 Oct 2026	$2.75	19/20	$5,598	$5,870	64%	73%	+$592	-$0	0.0%	$681 (vs do-nothing +$665)
$91.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$1.25	11/20	$5,893	$8,336	63%	73%	+$257	-$3,010	5.3%	$-2,899 (vs do-nothing $-2,915)
$92	14d	25 Sep 2026	$1.80	15/20	$5,786	$7,143	63%	73%	+$585	-$2,529	4.5%	$-2,384 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$92.50	21d	2 Oct 2026	$2.30	17/20	$5,586	$6,400	63%	72%	+$317	-$1,166	2.1%	$-1,004 (vs do-nothing $-1,020)
$92.50	28d	9 Oct 2026	$2.80	19/20	$5,700	$5,971	62%	72%	+$330	-$354	0.6%	$-174 (vs do-nothing $-190)

Show 29 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$92	21d	2 Oct 2026	$2.50	16/20	$5,714	$6,800	61%	72%	+$348	-$1,578	2.8%	$-1,424 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$91.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$2.25	12/20	$5,786	$7,957	61%	72%	+$965	-$2,083	3.7%	$-1,964 (vs do-nothing $-1,980)
$92	28d	9 Oct 2026	$3.10	17/20	$5,646	$6,461	60%	71%	+$497	-$656	1.2%	$-494 (vs do-nothing $-510)
$91	7d	18 Sep 2026	$1.50	9/20	$5,786	$8,771	60%	71%	+$482	-$2,687	4.7%	$-2,594 (vs do-nothing $-2,610)
$91.50	21d	2 Oct 2026	$2.75	14/20	$5,500	$7,129	59%	71%	+$425	-$1,731	3.0%	$-1,594 (vs do-nothing $-1,610)
$91.50	28d	9 Oct 2026	$3.20	16/20	$5,486	$6,571	59%	70%	+$298	-$1,258	2.2%	$-1,104 (vs do-nothing $-1,120)
$91	14d	25 Sep 2026	$2.50	11/20	$5,893	$8,336	58%	70%	+$980	-$2,185	3.8%	$-2,074 (vs do-nothing $-2,090)
$91	21d	2 Oct 2026	$3.00	13/20	$5,571	$7,471	57%	70%	+$484	-$1,932	3.4%	$-1,804 (vs do-nothing $-1,820)
$91	28d	9 Oct 2026	$3.80	14/20	$5,700	$7,329	57%	70%	+$846	-$961	1.7%	$-824 (vs do-nothing $-840)
$90.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$2.35	11/20	$5,539	$7,982	56%	69%	+$83	-$2,900	5.1%	$-2,789 (vs do-nothing $-2,805)
$90.50	21d	2 Oct 2026	$3.00	13/20	$5,571	$7,471	55%	69%	+$86	-$2,582	4.5%	$-2,454 (vs do-nothing $-2,470)
$90.50	28d	9 Oct 2026	$3.50	15/20	$5,625	$6,982	55%	69%	+$69	-$2,229	3.9%	$-2,084 (vs do-nothing $-2,100)
$90	28d	9 Oct 2026	$4.00	13/20	$5,571	$7,471	54%	68%	+$434	-$1,932	3.4%	$-1,804 (vs do-nothing $-1,820)
$90	21d	2 Oct 2026	$3.40	12/20	$5,829	$8,000	53%	68%	+$377	-$2,503	4.4%	$-2,384 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$90	7d	18 Sep 2026	$1.80	8/20	$6,171	$9,429	53%	67%	+$14	-$2,949	5.2%	$-2,864 (vs do-nothing $-2,880)
$90	14d	25 Sep 2026	$2.90	9/20	$5,593	$8,579	53%	68%	+$693	-$2,327	4.1%	$-2,234 (vs do-nothing $-2,250)
$89.50	28d	9 Oct 2026	$4.20	13/20	$5,850	$7,750	52%	67%	+$375	-$2,322	4.1%	$-2,194 (vs do-nothing $-2,210)
$89.50	21d	2 Oct 2026	$3.50	11/20	$5,500	$7,943	51%	67%	+$127	-$2,735	4.8%	$-2,624 (vs do-nothing $-2,640)
$89.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$2.75	10/20	$5,893	$8,607	51%	66%	$-69	-$3,236	5.7%	$-3,134 (vs do-nothing $-3,150)
$89	28d	9 Oct 2026	$4.40	12/20	$5,657	$7,829	50%	66%	+$277	-$2,503	4.4%	$-2,384 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$89	21d	2 Oct 2026	$3.70	11/20	$5,814	$8,257	49%	66%	+$46	-$3,065	5.4%	$-2,954 (vs do-nothing $-2,970)
$89	14d	25 Sep 2026	$3.40	8/20	$5,829	$9,086	48%	66%	+$619	-$2,469	4.3%	$-2,384 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$88.50	21d	2 Oct 2026	$4.20	10/20	$6,000	$8,714	47%	65%	+$378	-$2,786	4.9%	$-2,684 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$88	28d	9 Oct 2026	$4.90	11/20	$5,775	$8,218	46%	65%	+$207	-$2,845	5.0%	$-2,734 (vs do-nothing $-2,750)
$89	7d	18 Sep 2026	$2.00	7/20	$6,000	$9,529	46%	64%	$-908	-$3,140	5.5%	$-3,064 (vs do-nothing $-3,080)
$88.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$3.40	8/20	$5,829	$9,086	46%	64%	+$151	-$2,869	5.1%	$-2,784 (vs do-nothing $-2,800)
$88	21d	2 Oct 2026	$4.70	9/20	$6,043	$9,029	45%	65%	+$626	-$2,507	4.4%	$-2,414 (vs do-nothing $-2,430)
$88	14d	25 Sep 2026	$4.00	7/20	$6,000	$9,529	43%	64%	+$562	-$2,440	4.3%	$-2,364 (vs do-nothing $-2,380)
$88	7d	18 Sep 2026	$2.45	6/20	$6,300	$10,100	39%	61%	$-1,094	-$3,022	5.3%	$-2,954 (vs do-nothing $-2,970)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-11 22:01