20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $96.53 (banked floor $95.30) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,127/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,190/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 | U6241782 | $1.31 | $2,611 | 2026-08-05 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 4d | 15 × $88 | 76% | $7,312 | $1,626 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 11d | 19 × $88 | 70% | $7,255 | $-870 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $91.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 8.1% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | -1pp | $300 | $2,250 | -$5,062 | $9,757 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $91.50 8.1% OTM over spot $84.61 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.40 mid) = $300 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $91.90) 91% EV / mo +$172 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,646/mo median; plan ~$1,119/mo after 68% keep · $2,556 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,461 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $98 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.66/sh now → $1.88 mid-life (likely $1.74–$2.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 281 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $93 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91.50 is $5 below CC-SS $96.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $91.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,598 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $91.50): -$9,757 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,758 (+$13,842 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,758 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,000, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 14 × $89 | 18 Sep | 4d | 5.2% | 82%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | +3pp | $630 | $4,725 | -$2,588 | $9,910 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $89 5.2% OTM over spot $84.61 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.55 mid) = $630 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $89.55) 84% EV / mo +$1,112 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,475/mo median; plan ~$2,363/mo after 68% keep · $6,238 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,865 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $97 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.52/sh now → $1.78 mid-life (likely $1.82–$3.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 726 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $90 (overshoots $1.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $8 below CC-SS $96.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $89.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,598 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $89): -$9,910 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $93.50): -$1,427 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,338 (+$12,262 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,758 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,580, the opportunity cost of earning $4,725/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 15 × $88 | 18 Sep | 4d | 4.0% | 76%hist 84% | 48%hist 39% | +4pp | $975 | $7,312 | — | $11,817 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $88 4.0% OTM over spot $84.61 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.75 mid) = $975 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $88.75) 81% EV / mo +$1,711 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 82% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,648/mo median; plan ~$3,161/mo after 68% keep · $6,268 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,640 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $97 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.47/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 957 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $89 (overshoots $1.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $9 below CC-SS $96.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $88.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,598 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $88): -$11,817 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $93.50): -$1,189 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,008 (+$10,592 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,758 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,250, the opportunity cost of earning $7,312/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 16 × $86 | 18 Sep | 4d | 1.6% | 63%hist 65% | 76%hist 67% | +8pp | $1,920 | $14,400 | +$7,088 | $14,925 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $86 1.6% OTM over spot $84.61 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.38 mid) = $1,920 credit for the 4d cycle → $14,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $87.38) 73% EV / mo +$2,224 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 88% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,584/mo median; plan ~$4,477/mo after 68% keep · $9,658 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 88% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$747 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $99 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,591 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $87 (overshoots $1.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $11 below CC-SS $96.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $87.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,598 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $86): -$14,925 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93.50): -$951 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,878 (+$7,722 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,758 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,120, the opportunity cost of earning $14,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $95 | 25 Sep | 11d | 12.3% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | -3pp | $500 | $1,364 | -$5,891 | $2,557 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $95 12.3% OTM over spot $84.61 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.40 mid) = $500 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $95.40) 93% EV / mo +$562 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,071/mo median; plan ~$729/mo after 68% keep · $2,445 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,490 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $98 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.24/sh now → $3.00 mid-life (likely $2.37–$4.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $96 (overshoots $1.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $2 below CC-SS $96.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $95.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,598 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $95): -$2,557 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,558 (+$21,042 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,758 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,200, the opportunity cost of earning $1,364/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $89 | 25 Sep | 11d | 5.2% | 73%hist 84% | 55%hist 44% | +3pp | $1,800 | $4,909 | -$2,345 | $11,751 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $89 5.2% OTM over spot $84.61 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.32 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $90.33) 79% EV / mo +$235 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,346/mo median; plan ~$2,275/mo after 68% keep · $5,395 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,913 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $92 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.70/sh now → $2.62 mid-life (likely $2.82–$4.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,272 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $90 (overshoots $1.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $8 below CC-SS $96.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $90.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,598 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $89): -$11,751 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$476 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,228 (+$11,372 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,758 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,470, the opportunity cost of earning $4,909/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $88 | 25 Sep | 11d | 4.0% | 70%hist 65% | 62%hist 59% | +4pp | $2,660 | $7,255 | — | $13,544 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $88 4.0% OTM over spot $84.61 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.50 mid) = $2,660 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,255/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $89.50) 76% EV / mo +$1,547 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,390/mo median; plan ~$2,985/mo after 68% keep · $8,166 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.4-2.7], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,200 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $95 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.62/sh now → $2.56 mid-life (likely $2.91–$4.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,486 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $89 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $9 below CC-SS $96.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $89.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,598 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $88): -$13,544 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $93.50): -$238 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,783 (+$9,817 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,758 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,025, the opportunity cost of earning $7,255/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $84.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | -0.1% | 51%hist 70% | 100%hist 90% | · | $5,400 | $14,727 | +$7,473 | $18,657 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $84.50 0.1% ITM over spot $84.61 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $3.05 mid) = $5,400 credit for the 11d cycle → $14,727/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $84.50) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $87.55) 68% EV / mo +$1,715 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$696 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $98 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.33/sh now → $2.35 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $84.50 is $12 below CC-SS $96.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.68/sh (~25% of the $2.70 collected) or spot ≥ $87.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,598 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $84.50): -$18,657 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,658 (+$4,942 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,758 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,900, the opportunity cost of earning $14,727/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.990 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,598 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,758
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $88 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.65 | 15/20 | $7,312 | $7,854 | 76% | 81% | +$1,711 | -$11,817 | 20.8% | $-13,008 (vs do-nothing $-8,250) |
| $87 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.90 | 11/20 | $7,425 | $8,400 | 70% | 77% | +$1,520 | -$9,491 | 16.7% | $-11,633 (vs do-nothing $-6,875) |
| $88 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.40 | 19/20 | $7,255 | $7,363 | 70% | 76% | +$1,547 | -$13,544 | 23.8% | $-13,783 (vs do-nothing $-9,025) |
| $87.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.45 | 18/20 | $7,118 | $7,335 | 66% | 74% | $-469 | -$13,641 | 24.0% | $-14,118 (vs do-nothing $-9,360) |
| $87 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.50 | 18/20 | $7,364 | $7,580 | 64% | 73% | +$193 | -$14,451 | 25.4% | $-14,928 (vs do-nothing $-10,170) |
| $87 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.20 | 20/20 | $7,333 | $7,333 | 63% | 75% | +$1,338 | -$14,657 | 25.8% | $-14,658 (vs do-nothing $-9,900) |
| $86 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.20 | 8/20 | $7,200 | $8,500 | 63% | 73% | +$1,112 | -$7,463 | 13.1% | $-10,318 (vs do-nothing $-5,560) |
| $86.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.80 | 15/20 | $7,364 | $7,905 | 62% | 72% | +$999 | -$12,342 | 21.7% | $-13,533 (vs do-nothing $-8,775) |
| $86.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.40 | 18/20 | $7,200 | $7,417 | 61% | 73% | +$1,247 | -$13,731 | 24.2% | $-14,208 (vs do-nothing $-9,450) |
| $86 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.95 | 14/20 | $7,445 | $8,095 | 59% | 70% | +$457 | -$12,010 | 21.1% | $-13,438 (vs do-nothing $-8,680) |
| $86 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.60 | 17/20 | $7,367 | $7,692 | 59% | 72% | +$1,176 | -$13,478 | 23.7% | $-14,193 (vs do-nothing $-9,435) |
| $86 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 19/20 | $7,296 | $7,404 | 58% | 70% | +$716 | -$13,924 | 24.5% | $-14,163 (vs do-nothing $-9,405) |
| $85.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.10 | 13/20 | $7,445 | $8,204 | 57% | 71% | +$617 | -$11,607 | 20.4% | $-13,273 (vs do-nothing $-8,515) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $85.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.80 | 16/20 | $7,467 | $7,900 | 56% | 70% | +$1,067 | -$13,165 | 23.2% | $-14,118 (vs do-nothing $-9,360) |
| $85 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.60 | 6/20 | $7,200 | $8,717 | 54% | 69% | +$859 | -$5,957 | 10.5% | $-9,288 (vs do-nothing $-4,530) |
| $85 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 17/20 | $7,140 | $7,465 | 54% | 69% | +$592 | -$13,648 | 24.0% | $-14,363 (vs do-nothing $-9,605) |
| $85 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.25 | 12/20 | $7,364 | $8,230 | 54% | 69% | +$337 | -$11,134 | 19.6% | $-13,038 (vs do-nothing $-8,280) |
| $85 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 15/20 | $7,500 | $8,042 | 54% | 69% | +$925 | -$12,792 | 22.5% | $-13,983 (vs do-nothing $-9,225) |
| $84.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 14/20 | $7,467 | $8,117 | 51% | 69% | +$758 | -$12,360 | 21.8% | $-13,788 (vs do-nothing $-9,030) |
| $84.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.70 | 10/20 | $7,364 | $8,447 | 51% | 68% | +$858 | -$9,328 | 16.4% | $-11,708 (vs do-nothing $-6,950) |
| $84.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.65 | 6/20 | $7,425 | $8,942 | 50% | 67% | +$22 | -$6,227 | 11.0% | $-9,558 (vs do-nothing $-4,800) |
| $84 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.10 | 15/20 | $7,380 | $7,922 | 50% | 67% | +$701 | -$12,642 | 22.3% | $-13,833 (vs do-nothing $-9,075) |
| $84 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 13/20 | $7,583 | $8,342 | 49% | 67% | +$791 | -$11,737 | 20.7% | $-13,403 (vs do-nothing $-8,645) |
| $84 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.80 | 10/20 | $7,636 | $8,720 | 48% | 67% | +$431 | -$9,728 | 17.1% | $-12,108 (vs do-nothing $-7,350) |
| $83.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 12/20 | $7,200 | $8,067 | 47% | 66% | +$380 | -$11,314 | 19.9% | $-13,218 (vs do-nothing $-8,460) |
| $84 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.00 | 5/20 | $7,500 | $9,125 | 46% | 67% | +$347 | -$5,264 | 9.3% | $-8,833 (vs do-nothing $-4,075) |
| $83.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.95 | 9/20 | $7,241 | $8,433 | 45% | 65% | +$84 | -$9,070 | 16.0% | $-11,688 (vs do-nothing $-6,930) |
| $83 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.00 | 11/20 | $7,333 | $8,308 | 44% | 65% | +$550 | -$10,481 | 18.5% | $-12,623 (vs do-nothing $-7,865) |
| $83 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 8/20 | $7,200 | $8,500 | 42% | 64% | +$201 | -$8,183 | 14.4% | $-11,038 (vs do-nothing $-6,280) |
| $83.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.15 | 5/20 | $8,062 | $9,688 | 42% | 64% | $-172 | -$5,439 | 9.6% | $-9,008 (vs do-nothing $-4,250) |
| $83 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.70 | 4/20 | $8,100 | $9,833 | 37% | 62% | +$571 | -$4,331 | 7.6% | $-8,138 (vs do-nothing $-3,380) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.