20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $96.16 (banked floor $94.93) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,588/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,181/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 | U6241782 | $1.31 | $2,611 | 2026-08-05 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 16 × $89 | 83% | $5,600 | $1,687 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 19 × $89 | 74% | $5,415 | $-2,732 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $91.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 7.6% | 96%hist 96% | 7%hist 3% | -2pp | $200 | $2,000 | -$3,600 | $9,116 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $91.50 7.6% OTM over spot $85.00 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.40 mid) = $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $91.90) 97% EV / mo +$1,601 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,729/mo median; plan ~$1,176/mo after 68% keep · $3,178 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.4], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,317 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $98 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.49/sh now → $1.76 mid-life (likely $1.53–$2.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 221 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $93 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91.50 is $5 below CC-SS $96.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $91.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,204 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $91.50): -$9,116 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,112 (+$13,088 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,100, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $90 | 18 Sep | 3d | 5.9% | 88%hist 86% | 25%hist 26% | +2pp | $350 | $3,500 | -$2,100 | $8,271 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $90 5.9% OTM over spot $85.00 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.45 mid) = $350 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $90.45) 90% EV / mo +$1,309 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 81% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,150/mo median; plan ~$2,142/mo after 68% keep · $4,695 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 81% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,033 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $97 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.41/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.63–$3.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $91 (overshoots $1.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $6 below CC-SS $96.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $90.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,204 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $90): -$8,271 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $93.50): -$1,205 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,472 (+$12,728 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,460, the opportunity cost of earning $3,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $89 | 18 Sep | 3d | 4.7% | 83%hist 86% | 34%hist 30% | +4pp | $560 | $5,600 | — | $10,893 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $89 4.7% OTM over spot $85.00 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid) = $560 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $89.42) 85% EV / mo +$1,582 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,875/mo median; plan ~$2,635/mo after 68% keep · $7,278 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,104 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $97 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 590 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $90 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $7 below CC-SS $96.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $89.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,204 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $89): -$10,893 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93.50): -$803 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,692 (+$10,508 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,680, the opportunity cost of earning $5,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $88 | 18 Sep | 3d | 3.5% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | +6pp | $1,100 | $11,000 | +$5,400 | $15,216 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $88 3.5% OTM over spot $85.00 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.85 mid) = $1,100 credit for the 3d cycle → $11,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $88.85) 83% EV / mo +$3,064 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,109/mo median; plan ~$4,154/mo after 68% keep · $9,120 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,156 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $97 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.30/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 833 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $89 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $8 below CC-SS $96.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $88.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,204 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $88): -$15,216 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,212 (+$6,988 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,200, the opportunity cost of earning $11,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $94 | 25 Sep | 10d | 10.6% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | -3pp | $500 | $1,500 | -$3,915 | $3,816 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $94 10.6% OTM over spot $85.00 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.53 mid) = $500 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $94) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $94.53) 92% EV / mo +$600 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,175/mo median; plan ~$799/mo after 68% keep · $2,499 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.9], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,434 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $96 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.20/sh now → $2.97 mid-life (likely $2.39–$4.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 370 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $95 (overshoots $1.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $94 is $2 below CC-SS $96.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $94.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,204 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $94): -$3,816 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,812 (+$18,388 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$200, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $91 | 25 Sep | 10d | 7.1% | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 30% | +0pp | $1,200 | $3,600 | -$1,815 | $9,116 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $91 7.1% OTM over spot $85.00 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.93 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $91.92) 86% EV / mo +$1,113 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 79% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,554/mo median; plan ~$1,737/mo after 68% keep · $4,782 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,346 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $94 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.92/sh now → $2.77 mid-life (likely $2.60–$4.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 827 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $92 (overshoots $1.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $5 below CC-SS $96.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $91.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,204 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $91): -$9,116 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,112 (+$13,088 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,100, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $89 | 25 Sep | 10d | 4.7% | 74%hist 84% | 53%hist 44% | +3pp | $1,805 | $5,415 | — | $11,795 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $89 4.7% OTM over spot $85.00 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.32 mid) = $1,805 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,415/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $90.33) 80% EV / mo +$1,036 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,334/mo median; plan ~$2,267/mo after 68% keep · $7,008 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,224 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $94 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.74/sh now → $2.65 mid-life (likely $2.95–$4.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,237 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $90 (overshoots $1.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $7 below CC-SS $96.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.95 collected) or spot ≥ $90.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,204 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $89): -$11,795 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $93.50): -$201 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,992 (+$10,208 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,980, the opportunity cost of earning $5,415/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $86 | 25 Sep | 10d | 1.2% | 58%hist 70% | 87%hist 79% | +4pp | $3,700 | $11,100 | +$5,685 | $16,616 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $86 1.2% OTM over spot $85.00 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.33 mid) = $3,700 credit for the 10d cycle → $11,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $88.33) 71% EV / mo +$759 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,161/mo median; plan ~$3,509/mo after 68% keep · $7,301 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,228 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $96 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.48/sh now → $2.46 mid-life (likely $3.35–$4.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,134 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $87 (overshoots $1.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $10 below CC-SS $96.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.85 collected) or spot ≥ $88.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $96.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,204 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $86): -$16,616 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,612 (+$5,588 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,012 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,600, the opportunity cost of earning $11,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.995 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,204 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,012
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.35 | 16/20 | $5,600 | $6,059 | 83% | 85% | +$1,582 | -$10,893 | 19.2% | $-11,692 (vs do-nothing $-7,680) |
| $88 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.55 | 10/20 | $5,500 | $6,647 | 77% | 83% | +$1,532 | -$7,608 | 13.4% | $-9,612 (vs do-nothing $-5,600) |
| $89 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.95 | 19/20 | $5,415 | $5,530 | 74% | 80% | +$1,036 | -$11,795 | 20.8% | $-11,992 (vs do-nothing $-7,980) |
| $88.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.10 | 17/20 | $5,610 | $5,954 | 72% | 79% | +$1,081 | -$11,148 | 19.6% | $-11,747 (vs do-nothing $-7,735) |
| $87 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.80 | 7/20 | $5,600 | $7,091 | 70% | 76% | +$1,306 | -$5,851 | 10.3% | $-8,457 (vs do-nothing $-4,445) |
| $88 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.15 | 16/20 | $5,520 | $5,979 | 69% | 77% | +$613 | -$11,213 | 19.7% | $-12,012 (vs do-nothing $-8,000) |
| $88.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.60 | 19/20 | $5,365 | $5,479 | 68% | 76% | +$552 | -$11,510 | 20.3% | $-11,707 (vs do-nothing $-7,695) |
| $87.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.40 | 13/20 | $5,460 | $6,263 | 66% | 75% | +$888 | -$9,435 | 16.6% | $-10,837 (vs do-nothing $-6,825) |
| $88 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 18/20 | $5,559 | $5,788 | 66% | 75% | +$515 | -$11,534 | 20.3% | $-11,932 (vs do-nothing $-7,920) |
| $88 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.35 | 19/20 | $5,581 | $5,696 | 64% | 74% | +$517 | -$11,035 | 19.4% | $-11,232 (vs do-nothing $-7,220) |
| $87.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.95 | 16/20 | $5,506 | $5,965 | 64% | 74% | +$555 | -$10,733 | 18.9% | $-11,532 (vs do-nothing $-7,520) |
| $87 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.35 | 14/20 | $5,670 | $6,358 | 64% | 72% | +$48 | -$10,931 | 19.2% | $-12,132 (vs do-nothing $-8,120) |
| $87 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.15 | 14/20 | $5,312 | $6,000 | 61% | 72% | +$537 | -$9,811 | 17.3% | $-11,012 (vs do-nothing $-7,000) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $86 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.00 | 6/20 | $6,000 | $7,606 | 61% | 71% | +$465 | -$5,495 | 9.7% | $-8,302 (vs do-nothing $-4,290) |
| $86.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.65 | 11/20 | $5,445 | $6,477 | 61% | 72% | +$422 | -$8,809 | 15.5% | $-10,612 (vs do-nothing $-6,600) |
| $87 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.75 | 16/20 | $5,500 | $5,959 | 60% | 72% | +$487 | -$10,253 | 18.1% | $-11,052 (vs do-nothing $-7,040) |
| $86.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.25 | 14/20 | $5,559 | $6,247 | 59% | 71% | +$307 | -$10,371 | 18.3% | $-11,572 (vs do-nothing $-7,560) |
| $86 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.85 | 10/20 | $5,550 | $6,697 | 58% | 71% | +$379 | -$8,308 | 14.6% | $-10,312 (vs do-nothing $-6,300) |
| $86 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.45 | 13/20 | $5,621 | $6,424 | 57% | 70% | +$269 | -$10,020 | 17.6% | $-11,422 (vs do-nothing $-7,410) |
| $86 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 14/20 | $5,600 | $6,288 | 56% | 70% | +$476 | -$9,741 | 17.1% | $-10,942 (vs do-nothing $-6,930) |
| $85.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.15 | 9/20 | $5,805 | $7,067 | 55% | 69% | +$558 | -$7,657 | 13.5% | $-9,862 (vs do-nothing $-5,850) |
| $85.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.65 | 12/20 | $5,612 | $6,529 | 54% | 69% | +$201 | -$9,609 | 16.9% | $-11,212 (vs do-nothing $-7,200) |
| $85 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 12/20 | $5,400 | $6,318 | 52% | 68% | +$357 | -$9,069 | 16.0% | $-10,672 (vs do-nothing $-6,660) |
| $85 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 10/20 | $5,294 | $6,441 | 52% | 68% | +$368 | -$8,158 | 14.4% | $-10,162 (vs do-nothing $-6,150) |
| $85 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.40 | 8/20 | $5,760 | $7,136 | 52% | 68% | +$525 | -$7,006 | 12.3% | $-9,412 (vs do-nothing $-5,400) |
| $85 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.50 | 4/20 | $6,000 | $7,835 | 51% | 68% | +$632 | -$3,863 | 6.8% | $-7,072 (vs do-nothing $-3,060) |
| $84.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 10/20 | $5,647 | $6,794 | 50% | 67% | +$277 | -$8,458 | 14.9% | $-10,462 (vs do-nothing $-6,450) |
| $84.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.50 | 8/20 | $6,000 | $7,376 | 48% | 67% | +$148 | -$7,326 | 12.9% | $-9,732 (vs do-nothing $-5,720) |
| $84 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.10 | 11/20 | $5,638 | $6,670 | 48% | 66% | +$321 | -$8,864 | 15.6% | $-10,667 (vs do-nothing $-6,655) |
| $84 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 9/20 | $5,559 | $6,821 | 47% | 66% | +$302 | -$7,792 | 13.7% | $-9,997 (vs do-nothing $-5,985) |
| $84.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.70 | 4/20 | $6,800 | $8,635 | 46% | 67% | +$412 | -$3,983 | 7.0% | $-7,192 (vs do-nothing $-3,180) |
| $84 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.80 | 7/20 | $5,880 | $7,371 | 45% | 66% | +$180 | -$6,551 | 11.5% | $-9,157 (vs do-nothing $-5,145) |
| $83.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 8/20 | $5,365 | $6,741 | 45% | 65% | +$294 | -$7,086 | 12.5% | $-9,492 (vs do-nothing $-5,480) |
| $83.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 6/20 | $5,580 | $7,186 | 42% | 65% | +$166 | -$5,735 | 10.1% | $-8,542 (vs do-nothing $-4,530) |
| $84 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.95 | 3/20 | $5,850 | $7,800 | 41% | 65% | +$202 | -$3,062 | 5.4% | $-6,472 (vs do-nothing $-2,460) |
| $83.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.25 | 3/20 | $6,750 | $8,700 | 36% | 64% | +$154 | -$3,122 | 5.5% | $-6,532 (vs do-nothing $-2,520) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.