20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.21 (banked floor $93.97) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,875/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,183/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,300 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 | U6241782 | $1.31 | $2,611 | 2026-08-05 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 15 × $90 | 86% | $5,625 | $2,872 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 19 × $89.50 | 75% | $5,700 | $-984 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $95 | 18 Sep | 2d | 11.2% | 99+%hist 96% | 0%hist 3% | -9pp | $100 | $1,500 | -$4,125 | $311 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $95 11.2% OTM over spot $85.45 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $100 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $95.20) 99+% EV / mo +$1,498 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -9pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 81% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $100/mo median; plan ~$68/mo after 68% keep · $165 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,385 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $103 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $0 below CC-SS $95.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $95.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,433 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $95): -$311 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-178 (+$19,122 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,978 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,800, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $90 | 18 Sep | 2d | 5.3% | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 26% | +2pp | $250 | $3,750 | -$1,875 | $4,955 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $90 5.3% OTM over spot $85.45 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.30 mid) = $250 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $90.30) 88% EV / mo +$1,028 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,869/mo median; plan ~$2,631/mo after 68% keep · $3,097 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.2-1.6], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,321 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $98 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $1.72–$3.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 296 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $91 (overshoots $1.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $5 below CC-SS $95.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $90.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,433 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $90): -$4,955 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $93.50): -$1,055 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,878 (+$13,422 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,978 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,900, the opportunity cost of earning $3,750/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 15 × $90 | 18 Sep | 2d | 5.3% | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 26% | +3pp | $375 | $5,625 | — | $7,433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $90 5.3% OTM over spot $85.45 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.30 mid) = $375 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $90.30) 88% EV / mo +$1,542 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 81% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,397/mo median; plan ~$2,990/mo after 68% keep · $4,000 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.2-1.6], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,982 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $98 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $1.66–$3.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 350 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $91 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $5 below CC-SS $95.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $90.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,433 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $90): -$7,433 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $93.50): -$528 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,828 (+$11,472 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,978 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,850, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $88 | 18 Sep | 2d | 3.0% | 81%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | +10pp | $750 | $11,250 | +$5,625 | $10,058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $88 3.0% OTM over spot $85.45 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.62 mid) = $750 credit for the 2d cycle → $11,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $88.62) 86% EV / mo +$6,828 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 90% whole by 9mo vs 81% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,926/mo median; plan ~$5,390/mo after 68% keep · $8,813 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 90% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,508 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $97 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.13/sh now → $1.51 mid-life (likely $1.74–$3.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 816 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $89 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $7 below CC-SS $95.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $88.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,433 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $88): -$10,058 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $93.50): -$528 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,453 (+$8,847 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,978 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,475, the opportunity cost of earning $11,250/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $95 | 25 Sep | 9d | 11.2% | 94%hist 96% | 13%hist 14% | -5pp | $400 | $1,333 | -$4,367 | $11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $95 11.2% OTM over spot $85.45 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.47 mid) = $400 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $95.47) 94% EV / mo +$734 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -5pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,091/mo median; plan ~$742/mo after 68% keep · $1,558 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,306 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $98 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.03/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $2.30–$3.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 267 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $96 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $95 is at/above CC-SS $95.21: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $95.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,433 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $95): -$11 Total Position P&L @ SS: $122 (+$19,422 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,978 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,100, the opportunity cost of earning $1,333/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 17 × $91 | 25 Sep | 9d | 6.5% | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 30% | +1pp | $1,105 | $3,683 | -$2,017 | $6,044 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $91 6.5% OTM over spot $85.45 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.82 mid) = $1,105 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,683/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $91.83) 85% EV / mo +$1,323 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,215/mo median; plan ~$2,186/mo after 68% keep · $4,756 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,328 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $95 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.69/sh now → $2.61 mid-life (likely $2.55–$3.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 861 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $92 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $4 below CC-SS $95.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $91.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,433 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $91): -$6,044 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $93.50): -$317 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,228 (+$13,072 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,978 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,250, the opportunity cost of earning $3,683/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $89.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 4.7% | 75%hist 84% | 51%hist 44% | +3pp | $1,710 | $5,700 | — | $9,130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $89.50 4.7% OTM over spot $85.45 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.20 mid) = $1,710 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $90.70) 81% EV / mo +$1,380 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 81% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,942/mo median; plan ~$2,681/mo after 68% keep · $6,101 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.5], measured ONLY among the 81% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,075 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $94 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.56/sh now → $2.52 mid-life (likely $2.78–$4.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,227 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $91 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89.50 is $6 below CC-SS $95.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $90.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,433 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $89.50): -$9,130 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $93.50): -$106 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,103 (+$10,197 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,978 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,125, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $86.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 1.2% | 58%hist 70% | 86%hist 79% | +6pp | $3,420 | $11,400 | +$5,700 | $13,120 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $86.50 1.2% OTM over spot $85.45 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.25 mid) = $3,420 credit for the 9d cycle → $11,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86.50) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $88.75) 71% EV / mo +$1,265 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,407/mo median; plan ~$4,356/mo after 68% keep · $6,909 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,036 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $97 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.32/sh now → $2.35 mid-life (likely $3.17–$4.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,088 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $88 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86.50 is $9 below CC-SS $95.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $88.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,433 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $86.50): -$13,120 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $93.50): -$106 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,093 (+$6,207 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,978 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,115, the opportunity cost of earning $11,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 37 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.996 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,433 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,978
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.25 | 15/20 | $5,625 | $6,234 | 86% | 88% | +$1,542 | -$7,433 | 13.1% | $-7,828 (vs do-nothing $-5,850) |
| $89 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.20 | 19/20 | $5,700 | $5,822 | 82% | 85% | $-1,542 | -$11,410 | 20.1% | $-11,383 (vs do-nothing $-9,405) |
| $88 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.50 | 8/20 | $6,000 | $7,462 | 81% | 86% | +$3,641 | -$5,364 | 9.4% | $-6,498 (vs do-nothing $-4,520) |
| $89.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.90 | 19/20 | $5,700 | $5,822 | 75% | 81% | +$1,380 | -$9,130 | 16.1% | $-9,103 (vs do-nothing $-7,125) |
| $89 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.85 | 20/20 | $5,667 | $5,667 | 73% | 79% | +$361 | -$10,711 | 18.9% | $-10,578 (vs do-nothing $-8,600) |
| $88.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.15 | 15/20 | $5,750 | $6,359 | 70% | 78% | +$1,129 | -$8,333 | 14.7% | $-8,728 (vs do-nothing $-6,750) |
| $89 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.50 | 20/20 | $5,625 | $5,625 | 68% | 76% | +$510 | -$9,411 | 16.6% | $-9,278 (vs do-nothing $-7,300) |
| $88 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.40 | 12/20 | $5,600 | $6,575 | 67% | 76% | +$1,328 | -$6,966 | 12.3% | $-7,678 (vs do-nothing $-5,700) |
| $88.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.65 | 18/20 | $5,569 | $5,812 | 66% | 75% | +$460 | -$9,100 | 16.0% | $-9,178 (vs do-nothing $-7,200) |
| $89 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.15 | 20/20 | $5,609 | $5,609 | 66% | 75% | +$724 | -$8,111 | 14.3% | $-7,978 (vs do-nothing $-6,000) |
| $87 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.80 | 5/20 | $6,000 | $7,828 | 66% | 75% | +$370 | -$3,703 | 6.5% | $-5,153 (vs do-nothing $-3,175) |
| $87.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.25 | 14/20 | $5,833 | $6,565 | 64% | 73% | +$103 | -$9,037 | 15.9% | $-9,538 (vs do-nothing $-7,560) |
| $88 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.00 | 15/20 | $5,625 | $6,234 | 64% | 73% | +$911 | -$7,808 | 13.7% | $-8,203 (vs do-nothing $-6,225) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $88 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.55 | 17/20 | $5,654 | $6,020 | 62% | 73% | +$736 | -$7,914 | 13.9% | $-8,098 (vs do-nothing $-6,120) |
| $87.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.05 | 15/20 | $5,766 | $6,375 | 61% | 72% | +$173 | -$8,483 | 14.9% | $-8,878 (vs do-nothing $-6,900) |
| $87 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.60 | 11/20 | $5,867 | $6,964 | 61% | 72% | +$714 | -$7,266 | 12.8% | $-8,083 (vs do-nothing $-6,105) |
| $87 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.25 | 13/20 | $5,484 | $6,338 | 59% | 72% | +$505 | -$7,742 | 13.6% | $-8,348 (vs do-nothing $-6,370) |
| $87 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.90 | 15/20 | $5,674 | $6,283 | 59% | 71% | +$566 | -$7,958 | 14.0% | $-8,353 (vs do-nothing $-6,375) |
| $86.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.80 | 10/20 | $6,000 | $7,219 | 58% | 71% | +$666 | -$6,905 | 12.2% | $-7,828 (vs do-nothing $-5,850) |
| $86 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.10 | 4/20 | $6,600 | $8,550 | 57% | 70% | +$931 | -$3,242 | 5.7% | $-4,798 (vs do-nothing $-2,820) |
| $86.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.45 | 12/20 | $5,512 | $6,488 | 57% | 70% | +$177 | -$7,506 | 13.2% | $-8,218 (vs do-nothing $-6,240) |
| $86 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.00 | 9/20 | $6,000 | $7,341 | 55% | 70% | +$558 | -$6,485 | 11.4% | $-7,513 (vs do-nothing $-5,535) |
| $86 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.75 | 11/20 | $5,672 | $6,769 | 55% | 69% | +$595 | -$7,101 | 12.5% | $-7,918 (vs do-nothing $-5,940) |
| $86 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.40 | 13/20 | $5,765 | $6,618 | 55% | 69% | +$590 | -$7,547 | 13.3% | $-8,153 (vs do-nothing $-6,175) |
| $85.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.90 | 10/20 | $5,438 | $6,656 | 52% | 68% | +$382 | -$6,805 | 12.0% | $-7,728 (vs do-nothing $-5,750) |
| $85.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.20 | 8/20 | $5,867 | $7,329 | 52% | 68% | +$410 | -$6,004 | 10.6% | $-7,138 (vs do-nothing $-5,160) |
| $85 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 11/20 | $5,452 | $6,549 | 50% | 67% | +$368 | -$7,046 | 12.4% | $-7,863 (vs do-nothing $-5,885) |
| $85 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 10/20 | $6,000 | $7,219 | 50% | 67% | +$475 | -$7,005 | 12.3% | $-7,928 (vs do-nothing $-5,950) |
| $85 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.50 | 7/20 | $5,833 | $7,418 | 48% | 67% | +$471 | -$5,394 | 9.5% | $-6,633 (vs do-nothing $-4,655) |
| $84.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 9/20 | $5,906 | $7,247 | 48% | 65% | +$136 | -$6,485 | 11.4% | $-7,513 (vs do-nothing $-5,535) |
| $84 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.40 | 10/20 | $5,739 | $6,958 | 46% | 66% | +$411 | -$6,805 | 12.0% | $-7,728 (vs do-nothing $-5,750) |
| $85 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.65 | 3/20 | $7,425 | $9,497 | 46% | 68% | +$1,054 | -$2,567 | 4.5% | $-4,228 (vs do-nothing $-2,250) |
| $84.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.80 | 6/20 | $5,600 | $7,306 | 45% | 66% | +$462 | -$4,743 | 8.4% | $-6,088 (vs do-nothing $-4,110) |
| $84 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 9/20 | $6,075 | $7,416 | 45% | 64% | $-29 | -$6,845 | 12.1% | $-7,873 (vs do-nothing $-5,895) |
| $84 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 6/20 | $6,000 | $7,706 | 42% | 65% | +$282 | -$4,923 | 8.7% | $-6,268 (vs do-nothing $-4,290) |
| $84.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.80 | 3/20 | $8,100 | $10,172 | 40% | 65% | +$433 | -$2,672 | 4.7% | $-4,333 (vs do-nothing $-2,355) |
| $84 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.25 | 2/20 | $6,750 | $8,944 | 34% | 64% | +$669 | -$1,791 | 3.2% | $-3,558 (vs do-nothing $-1,580) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.