FORTRESS FIGHT: COPX @ $85.85

BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.75 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

COPX @ $85.85 UNDERWATER $7.55 (8.1% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.75 (banked floor $94.53) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $65 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $38.858/sh)

SP: $90 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $19.960/sh)

HP: $68 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $9.525/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$100,800	(ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000
Normal income ref	$10,286/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,056/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-19,800	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,143/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$10,286/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $56,800

ML VELOCITY
9.8 mo to earn back $100,800

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $95.75 (probe: $96C 14d) brings only $857/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,500

Hole (after banked)

$17,300

was $19,800 · 13% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,310

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$95.75 → $94.53

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
20x $92C 25 Sep 2026	U6241782	$0.65	$1,310	2026-09-18

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 28 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $95.86 (+12%) · daily UBB $94.66 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 18 contracts at $88 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 67%, breach 33%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,143/mo); it brings $5,400/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 20 × $87.50/7d for $10,286/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+3pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 20 × $93/7d (91% survival, $1,286/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $12,692 (22% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $93, recoverable in 1.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 18 contracts realizes $-18,540 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 2 Oct 2026 (7d) · sell 18 × $88, 67% survival, $5,400/mo (E[net] $-3,308/mo).
⚠ NEGATIVE E[net]: the expected cost of being challenged exceeds this premium, so this is the least-bad track rather than a good write. Consider a safer rung on the ladder below, or sitting the cycle out.
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	2 Oct 2026 · 7d	18 × $88	67%	$5,400	$-3,308

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,260 with probability 47%; on the 53% touch you roll, paying $3,824 to close and taking $1,226 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,598) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 2 Oct 2026 · 7d · E[net] $-3,308/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 18 × $88 (50% normal), 67% survival, breach 33%, $5,400/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $89 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 73% (breach 33% → 27%) for $1,929/mo less (36% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

COPX spot $85.85 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

20 × $93

2 Oct

8.3%

91%hist 96%

19%hist 13%

-1pp

$300

$1,286

-$4,114

$5,202

Sell 20 × $93 8.3% OTM over spot $85.85 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.33 mid)

= $300 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,286/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $93)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $93.33)

92%

EV / mo

+$131

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

78% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,022/mo

median; plan ~$695/mo after 68% keep · $1,447 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,481

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026)

$96 @ 71% POP

63% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.38/sh now → $2.39 mid-life (likely $1.99–$3.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 380 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $94 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$96	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.42/sh	+$847 cycle +$1,147 [-$140…+$1,785] · 71% credit	70% surv 61%	+$1,103 SAFE cap gain +$20,903
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$93	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$158 cycle +$458 [-$644…+$992] · 52% credit	65% surv 52%	-$4,625 NOT cap gain +$15,175
Max even-money escape in the band	~$96	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.10/sh	+$192 cycle +$492 [-$890…+$1,117] · 51% credit	71% surv 63%	+$1,457 SAFE cap gain +$21,257
reaches SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$93	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.05/sh	+$93 cycle +$393 [-$745…+$929] · 50% credit	64% surv 52%	-$4,992 NOT cap gain +$14,808

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,286/mo
vs 50% target ($5,143/mo)	-75%
vs normal income ($10,286/mo)	12% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,286/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $93 is $3 below CC-SS $95.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,202
… as % of IC ($56,800)	9.2%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	5.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-20,150

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $93.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $92.07	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $92-93.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $93.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$93.00 (1.4σ)	$300	$-5,086	+$14,714	-$500
+2.5%	$95.32 (1.8σ)	$-4,350	$-5,048	+$14,752	-$1,500
+5%	$97.65 (2.3σ)	$-9,000	$-5,011	+$14,789	-$1,500

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.75, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,960

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $93): -$5,202

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,042 (+$14,758 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,542 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,500, the opportunity cost of earning $1,286/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

18 × $89

2 Oct

3.7%

73%hist 84%

54%hist 44%

+1pp

$810

$3,471

-$1,929

$11,342

Sell 18 × $89 3.7% OTM over spot $85.85 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $1.05 mid)

= $810 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,471/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $89)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $90.05)

79%

EV / mo

$-1,541

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

80% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,100/mo

median; plan ~$1,428/mo after 68% keep · $3,356 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

42%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,108

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026)

$94 @ 75% POP

69% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.08/sh now → $2.18 mid-life (likely $2.46–$3.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,248 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $90 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$90	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.71/sh	+$1,274 cycle +$2,084 [-$38…+$1,170] · 74% credit	67% surv 57%	-$8,967 NOT cap gain +$10,833
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$89	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.07/sh	+$118 cycle +$928 [-$998…-$8] · 25% credit	65% surv 52%	-$12,139 NOT cap gain +$7,661
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$89	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.04/sh	+$75 cycle +$885 [-$1,074…-$59] · 24% credit	64% surv 51%	-$12,485 NOT cap gain +$7,315
Max even-money escape in the band	~$92	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.00/sh	+$8 cycle +$818 [-$1,462…-$215] · 22% credit	71% surv 64%	-$6,201 NOT cap gain +$13,599
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$94	23 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.35/sh	-$624 cycle +$186 [-$2,179…-$880] · 12% credit	75% surv 69%	-$3,840 NOT cap gain +$15,960
budget: banked $810 debit $624 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$186 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $4,116/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,471/mo
vs 50% target ($5,143/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($10,286/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,643/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $89 is $7 below CC-SS $95.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,342
… as % of IC ($56,800)	20.0%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	11.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-18,900

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $90.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $88.11	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $88-90.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $90.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$89.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$810	$-12,560	+$7,240	+$90
+2.5%	$91.22 (1.0σ)	$-3,195	$-12,079	+$7,721	-$3,915
+5%	$93.45 (1.5σ)	$-7,200	$-11,598	+$8,202	-$7,920

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.75, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,960

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $89): -$11,342

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$370

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,552 (+$8,248 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,542 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,010, the opportunity cost of earning $3,471/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

18 × $88

2 Oct

2.5%

67%hist 65%

68%hist 58%

+1pp

$1,260

$5,400

—

$12,692

Sell 18 × $88 2.5% OTM over spot $85.85 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $1.10 mid)

= $1,260 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,400/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $88)

67%

Breach risk

33%

POP (stays ≤ $89.10)

74%

EV / mo

$-1,662

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

82% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,973/mo

median; plan ~$2,022/mo after 68% keep · $3,944 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

53%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,564

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026)

$94 @ 77% POP

73% survival

Buyback gross: $3.00/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $2.61–$3.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,580 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $89 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$89	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.68/sh	+$1,226 cycle +$2,486 [-$325…+$866] · 63% credit	67% surv 57%	-$10,581 NOT cap gain +$9,219
Max even-money escape in the band	~$91	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.28/sh	+$503 cycle +$1,763 [-$1,123…+$102] · 28% credit	71% surv 62%	-$8,280 NOT cap gain +$11,520
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$88	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.06/sh	+$112 cycle +$1,372 [-$1,207…-$202] · 18% credit	65% surv 52%	-$13,711 NOT cap gain +$6,089
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$88	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.04/sh	+$73 cycle +$1,333 [-$1,286…-$254] · 18% credit	64% surv 51%	-$14,053 NOT cap gain +$5,747
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$94	23 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.66/sh	-$1,194 cycle +$66 [-$3,164…-$1,770] · 5% credit	77% surv 73%	-$3,960 NOT cap gain +$15,840
budget: banked $1,260 debit $1,194 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$66 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $3,287/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,400/mo
vs 50% target ($5,143/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($10,286/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,571/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $88 is $8 below CC-SS $95.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,692
… as % of IC ($56,800)	22.3%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	12.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-18,540

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $89.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $87.12	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $87-89.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $89.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$88.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,260	$-14,126	+$5,674	+$540
+2.5%	$90.20 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,700	$-13,650	+$6,150	-$3,420
+5%	$92.40 (1.3σ)	$-6,660	$-13,175	+$6,625	-$7,380
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (1.5σ)	$-8,460	$-12,959	+$6,841	-$9,180

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.75, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,960

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $88): -$12,692

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$370

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,902 (+$6,898 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,542 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,360, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

20 × $87.50

2 Oct

1.9%

63%hist 65%

75%hist 68%

+7pp

$2,400

$10,286

+$4,886

$14,102

Sell 20 × $87.50 1.9% OTM over spot $85.85 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $1.57 mid)

= $2,400 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,286/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $87.50)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $89.08)

74%

EV / mo

+$1,053

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

83% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,098/mo

median; plan ~$3,467/mo after 68% keep · $6,981 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

57%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,798

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026)

$94 @ 81% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $2.97/sh now → $2.10 mid-life (likely $2.72–$3.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,699 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $89 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$88	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$1.11/sh	+$2,220 cycle +$4,620 [+$540…+$1,683] · 88% credit	67% surv 55%	-$10,543 NOT cap gain +$9,257
Max even-money escape in the band	~$90	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.27/sh	+$532 cycle +$2,932 [-$1,429…-$133] · 22% credit	71% surv 63%	-$8,199 NOT cap gain +$11,601
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$88	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.06/sh	+$121 cycle +$2,521 [-$1,462…-$420] · 15% credit	65% surv 52%	-$13,650 NOT cap gain +$6,150
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$88	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.04/sh	+$79 cycle +$2,479 [-$1,556…-$474] · 14% credit	64% surv 51%	-$13,994 NOT cap gain +$5,806
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$94	16 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.11/sh	-$2,228 cycle +$172 [-$4,560…-$3,054]	81% surv 78%	-$3,903 NOT cap gain +$15,897
budget: banked $2,400 debit $2,228 (93% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$172 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,283/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,286/mo
vs 50% target ($5,143/mo)	+100%
vs normal income ($10,286/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,286/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $87.50 is $8 below CC-SS $95.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,102
… as % of IC ($56,800)	24.8%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	14.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-20,550

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $89.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $86.62	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $87-89.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $89.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$87.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,400	$-14,074	+$5,726	+$1,600
+2.5%	$89.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,975	$-14,039	+$5,761	-$2,775
+5%	$91.88 (1.2σ)	$-6,350	$-14,004	+$5,796	-$7,150
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (1.5σ)	$-9,400	$-13,979	+$5,821	-$10,200

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.75, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,960

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $87.50): -$14,102

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,942 (+$5,858 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,542 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,400, the opportunity cost of earning $10,286/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COPX are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (36 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.008 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,960 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,542

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$88	7d	2 Oct 2026	$0.70	18/20	$5,400	$5,571	67%	74%	$-1,662	-$12,692	22.3%	$-12,902 (vs do-nothing $-9,360)
$88.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$1.25	20/20	$5,357	$5,357	66%	74%	$-659	-$12,002	21.1%	$-11,842 (vs do-nothing $-8,300)
$89	21d	16 Oct 2026	$1.95	19/20	$5,293	$5,379	65%	74%	+$510	-$9,122	16.1%	$-9,147 (vs do-nothing $-5,605)
$87.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$1.20	10/20	$5,143	$6,000	63%	74%	+$527	-$7,051	12.4%	$-8,742 (vs do-nothing $-5,200)
$88.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$1.90	19/20	$5,157	$5,243	63%	72%	$-84	-$10,167	17.9%	$-10,192 (vs do-nothing $-6,650)
$88	14d	9 Oct 2026	$1.40	18/20	$5,400	$5,571	63%	72%	$-663	-$11,432	20.1%	$-11,642 (vs do-nothing $-8,100)
$88.50	28d	23 Oct 2026	$2.45	20/20	$5,250	$5,250	62%	72%	+$144	-$9,602	16.9%	$-9,442 (vs do-nothing $-5,900)
$88	21d	16 Oct 2026	$2.15	17/20	$5,221	$5,479	62%	72%	+$686	-$9,522	16.8%	$-9,917 (vs do-nothing $-6,375)
$87.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$1.65	15/20	$5,304	$5,732	61%	71%	$-338	-$9,901	17.4%	$-10,667 (vs do-nothing $-7,125)
$88	28d	23 Oct 2026	$2.65	19/20	$5,395	$5,480	60%	72%	+$163	-$9,692	17.1%	$-9,717 (vs do-nothing $-6,175)
$87	7d	2 Oct 2026	$1.00	12/20	$5,143	$5,829	60%	71%	$-1,335	-$9,301	16.4%	$-10,622 (vs do-nothing $-7,080)
$87.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$2.25	16/20	$5,143	$5,486	59%	70%	$-124	-$9,601	16.9%	$-10,182 (vs do-nothing $-6,640)
$87.50	28d	23 Oct 2026	$2.55	19/20	$5,191	$5,277	59%	70%	$-443	-$10,832	19.1%	$-10,857 (vs do-nothing $-7,315)

Show 23 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$87	14d	9 Oct 2026	$1.70	15/20	$5,464	$5,893	58%	70%	$-815	-$10,576	18.6%	$-11,342 (vs do-nothing $-7,800)
$87	21d	16 Oct 2026	$2.30	16/20	$5,257	$5,600	57%	70%	+$118	-$10,321	18.2%	$-10,902 (vs do-nothing $-7,360)
$87	28d	23 Oct 2026	$2.85	17/20	$5,191	$5,448	57%	69%	$-230	-$10,032	17.7%	$-10,427 (vs do-nothing $-6,885)
$86.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$1.20	10/20	$5,143	$6,000	56%	69%	$-1,132	-$8,051	14.2%	$-9,742 (vs do-nothing $-6,200)
$86.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$2.10	12/20	$5,400	$6,086	55%	69%	$-175	-$8,581	15.1%	$-9,902 (vs do-nothing $-6,360)
$86.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$2.75	14/20	$5,500	$6,014	55%	68%	+$46	-$9,101	16.0%	$-10,052 (vs do-nothing $-6,510)
$86.50	28d	23 Oct 2026	$3.30	15/20	$5,304	$5,732	55%	69%	+$168	-$8,926	15.7%	$-9,692 (vs do-nothing $-6,150)
$86	28d	23 Oct 2026	$3.50	14/20	$5,250	$5,764	53%	68%	+$110	-$8,751	15.4%	$-9,702 (vs do-nothing $-6,160)
$86	21d	16 Oct 2026	$3.10	12/20	$5,314	$6,000	53%	68%	+$706	-$7,981	14.1%	$-9,302 (vs do-nothing $-5,760)
$86	14d	9 Oct 2026	$2.40	10/20	$5,143	$6,000	53%	68%	+$2	-$7,351	12.9%	$-9,042 (vs do-nothing $-5,500)
$86	7d	2 Oct 2026	$1.30	10/20	$5,571	$6,429	52%	67%	$-1,677	-$8,451	14.9%	$-10,142 (vs do-nothing $-6,600)
$85.50	28d	23 Oct 2026	$3.80	13/20	$5,293	$5,893	51%	67%	+$183	-$8,386	14.8%	$-9,522 (vs do-nothing $-5,980)
$85.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$3.20	12/20	$5,486	$6,171	50%	67%	+$461	-$8,461	14.9%	$-9,782 (vs do-nothing $-6,240)
$85.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$2.30	11/20	$5,421	$6,193	50%	66%	$-816	-$8,746	15.4%	$-10,252 (vs do-nothing $-6,710)
$85	28d	23 Oct 2026	$4.00	12/20	$5,143	$5,829	49%	66%	+$100	-$8,101	14.3%	$-9,422 (vs do-nothing $-5,880)
$85.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$1.75	7/20	$5,250	$6,364	49%	66%	$-574	-$5,951	10.5%	$-8,197 (vs do-nothing $-4,655)
$85	21d	16 Oct 2026	$3.70	10/20	$5,286	$6,143	48%	66%	+$729	-$7,051	12.4%	$-8,742 (vs do-nothing $-5,200)
$84.50	28d	23 Oct 2026	$4.10	12/20	$5,271	$5,957	47%	64%	$-112	-$8,581	15.1%	$-9,902 (vs do-nothing $-6,360)
$85	14d	9 Oct 2026	$3.00	8/20	$5,143	$6,171	47%	66%	+$154	-$6,201	10.9%	$-8,262 (vs do-nothing $-4,720)
$84.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$3.90	10/20	$5,571	$6,429	45%	65%	+$623	-$7,351	12.9%	$-9,042 (vs do-nothing $-5,500)
$85	7d	2 Oct 2026	$2.20	6/20	$5,657	$6,857	45%	65%	$-38	-$5,131	9.0%	$-7,562 (vs do-nothing $-4,020)
$84.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$3.20	8/20	$5,486	$6,514	44%	65%	+$17	-$6,441	11.3%	$-8,502 (vs do-nothing $-4,960)
$84.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$2.15	6/20	$5,529	$6,729	41%	63%	$-928	-$5,461	9.6%	$-7,892 (vs do-nothing $-4,350)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-25 21:45