20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.14 (banked floor $92.65) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,818/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,104/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 4d | 18 × $88.50 | 78% | $6,750 | $118 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 16 Oct 2026 · 11d | 19 × $88.50 | 70% | $6,477 | $-1,431 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $91 | 9 Oct | 4d | 6.6% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | -0pp | $300 | $2,250 | -$4,500 | $7,984 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $91 6.6% OTM over spot $85.39 9 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.22 mid) = $300 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $91.22) 92% EV / mo +$978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 83% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,791/mo median; plan ~$1,218/mo after 68% keep · $2,151 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-2.2], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,137 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $96 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.14/sh now → $2.22 mid-life (likely $1.92–$3.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 328 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $92 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $4 below CC-SS $95.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $91.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $91.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,738 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $91): -$7,984 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,846 (+$11,754 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,900, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $89 | 9 Oct | 4d | 4.2% | 82%hist 87% | 37%hist 31% | +2pp | $595 | $4,462 | -$2,288 | $9,847 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $89 4.2% OTM over spot $85.39 9 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.65 mid) = $595 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,462/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $89.65) 86% EV / mo +$1,036 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,275/mo median; plan ~$2,227/mo after 68% keep · $3,221 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.9], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,004 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $94 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.99/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $2.20–$3.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 732 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $90 (overshoots $1.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $6 below CC-SS $95.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $89.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $91.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,738 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $89): -$9,847 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $93.50): -$313 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,021 (+$9,579 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,075, the opportunity cost of earning $4,462/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $88.50 | 9 Oct | 4d | 3.6% | 78%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | +5pp | $900 | $6,750 | — | $11,056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $88.50 3.6% OTM over spot $85.39 9 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.78 mid) = $900 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $89.28) 83% EV / mo +$2,045 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 88% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,494/mo median; plan ~$3,056/mo after 68% keep · $4,533 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 88% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,865 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $94 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.96/sh now → $2.09 mid-life (likely $2.27–$3.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 892 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $90 (overshoots $1.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88.50 is $7 below CC-SS $95.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $89.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $91.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,738 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $88.50): -$11,056 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$208 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,126 (+$8,474 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,180, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $86.50 | 9 Oct | 4d | 1.3% | 62%hist 65% | 78%hist 68% | +8pp | $1,785 | $13,388 | +$6,638 | $12,907 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $86.50 1.3% OTM over spot $85.39 9 Oct 2026 (4d, $1.52 mid) = $1,785 credit for the 4d cycle → $13,388/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $88.03) 75% EV / mo +$2,203 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 91% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,994/mo median; plan ~$4,756/mo after 68% keep · $5,751 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 91% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,603 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $95 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.82/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.53–$4.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,726 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $88 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86.50 is $9 below CC-SS $95.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $88.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $91.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,738 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $86.50): -$12,907 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $93.50): -$313 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,081 (+$6,519 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,135, the opportunity cost of earning $13,388/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $94 | 16 Oct | 11d | 10.1% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 24% | -2pp | $700 | $1,909 | -$4,568 | $1,584 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $94 10.1% OTM over spot $85.39 16 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.52 mid) = $700 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $94) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $94.53) 91% EV / mo +$918 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,423/mo median; plan ~$968/mo after 68% keep · $2,028 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,994 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $97 @ 71% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.03/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $2.24–$3.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 428 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $95 (overshoots $1.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $94 is $1 below CC-SS $95.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $94.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $91.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,738 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $94): -$1,584 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,446 (+$18,154 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$500, the opportunity cost of earning $1,909/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $90.50 | 16 Oct | 11d | 6.0% | 79%hist 83% | 43%hist 40% | +3pp | $1,600 | $4,364 | -$2,114 | $7,684 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $90.50 6.0% OTM over spot $85.39 16 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.05 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $91.55) 83% EV / mo +$1,369 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 85% whole by 9mo vs 83% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,625/mo median; plan ~$2,465/mo after 68% keep · $3,244 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,645 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $95 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.71/sh now → $2.62 mid-life (likely $2.64–$3.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 988 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $92 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90.50 is $5 below CC-SS $95.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $91.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $91.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,738 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $90.50): -$7,684 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,546 (+$12,054 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,600, the opportunity cost of earning $4,364/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $88.50 | 16 Oct | 11d | 3.6% | 70%hist 65% | 62%hist 56% | +3pp | $2,375 | $6,477 | — | $10,245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $88.50 3.6% OTM over spot $85.39 16 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.48 mid) = $2,375 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,477/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $89.97) 77% EV / mo +$1,422 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 88% whole by 9mo vs 85% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,175/mo median; plan ~$3,519/mo after 68% keep · $4,834 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 88% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,373 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $95 @ 79% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.53/sh now → $2.50 mid-life (likely $2.83–$4.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,473 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $90 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88.50 is $7 below CC-SS $95.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $89.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $91.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,738 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $88.50): -$10,245 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $93.50): -$104 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,211 (+$9,389 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,265, the opportunity cost of earning $6,477/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $85.50 | 16 Oct | 11d | 0.1% | 52%hist 68% | 99%hist 90% | +5pp | $4,700 | $12,818 | +$6,341 | $14,584 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $85.50 0.1% OTM over spot $85.39 16 Oct 2026 (11d, $2.78 mid) = $4,700 credit for the 11d cycle → $12,818/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $88.28) 69% EV / mo +$1,467 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,833/mo median; plan ~$5,327/mo after 68% keep · $4,700 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.2-1.6], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 82% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$63 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $97 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.28/sh now → $2.32 mid-life (likely $3.30–$4.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,447 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $87 (overshoots $1.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85.50 is $10 below CC-SS $95.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.35 collected) or spot ≥ $88.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $91.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,738 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $85.50): -$14,584 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,446 (+$5,154 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,500, the opportunity cost of earning $12,818/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.012 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,738 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,946
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $88.50 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.50 | 18/20 | $6,750 | $6,950 | 78% | 83% | +$2,045 | -$11,056 | 19.5% | $-11,126 (vs do-nothing $-9,180) |
| $88 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.65 | 14/20 | $6,825 | $7,425 | 75% | 80% | +$2,134 | -$9,089 | 16.0% | $-9,576 (vs do-nothing $-7,630) |
| $87.50 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.70 | 13/20 | $6,825 | $7,525 | 71% | 79% | +$1,306 | -$9,025 | 15.9% | $-9,616 (vs do-nothing $-7,670) |
| $88.50 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.25 | 19/20 | $6,477 | $6,577 | 70% | 77% | +$1,422 | -$10,245 | 18.0% | $-10,211 (vs do-nothing $-8,265) |
| $88 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.40 | 17/20 | $6,491 | $6,791 | 67% | 75% | +$1,311 | -$9,762 | 17.2% | $-9,936 (vs do-nothing $-7,990) |
| $87 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.85 | 11/20 | $7,012 | $7,912 | 66% | 76% | +$1,165 | -$8,021 | 14.1% | $-8,821 (vs do-nothing $-6,875) |
| $87.50 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.55 | 16/20 | $6,764 | $7,164 | 64% | 74% | +$1,201 | -$9,747 | 17.2% | $-10,026 (vs do-nothing $-8,080) |
| $87.50 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.10 | 19/20 | $6,650 | $6,750 | 62% | 74% | +$948 | -$10,530 | 18.5% | $-10,496 (vs do-nothing $-8,550) |
| $86.50 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.05 | 9/20 | $7,088 | $8,188 | 62% | 75% | +$1,166 | -$6,833 | 12.0% | $-7,841 (vs do-nothing $-5,895) |
| $87 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 14/20 | $6,682 | $7,282 | 61% | 73% | +$1,148 | -$8,949 | 15.8% | $-9,436 (vs do-nothing $-7,490) |
| $87 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.20 | 18/20 | $6,600 | $6,800 | 60% | 72% | +$640 | -$10,696 | 18.8% | $-10,766 (vs do-nothing $-8,820) |
| $87 | 25d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.90 | 19/20 | $6,612 | $6,712 | 59% | 72% | +$963 | -$9,960 | 17.5% | $-9,926 (vs do-nothing $-7,980) |
| $86.50 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.00 | 12/20 | $6,545 | $7,345 | 58% | 72% | +$1,174 | -$7,970 | 14.0% | $-8,666 (vs do-nothing $-6,720) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $86.50 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.45 | 16/20 | $6,533 | $6,933 | 57% | 71% | +$701 | -$9,907 | 17.4% | $-10,186 (vs do-nothing $-8,240) |
| $86 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.30 | 7/20 | $6,825 | $8,125 | 57% | 71% | +$1,191 | -$5,489 | 9.7% | $-6,706 (vs do-nothing $-4,760) |
| $86 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.15 | 11/20 | $6,450 | $7,350 | 55% | 70% | +$894 | -$7,691 | 13.5% | $-8,491 (vs do-nothing $-6,545) |
| $86 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.70 | 15/20 | $6,750 | $7,250 | 55% | 70% | +$744 | -$9,663 | 17.0% | $-10,046 (vs do-nothing $-8,100) |
| $86 | 25d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.30 | 17/20 | $6,732 | $7,032 | 55% | 70% | +$819 | -$9,932 | 17.5% | $-10,106 (vs do-nothing $-8,160) |
| $85.50 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.90 | 14/20 | $6,767 | $7,367 | 52% | 68% | +$624 | -$9,439 | 16.6% | $-9,926 (vs do-nothing $-7,980) |
| $85.50 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.35 | 10/20 | $6,409 | $7,409 | 52% | 69% | +$733 | -$7,292 | 12.8% | $-8,196 (vs do-nothing $-6,250) |
| $85.50 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 6/20 | $6,525 | $7,925 | 52% | 71% | +$685 | -$4,915 | 8.7% | $-6,236 (vs do-nothing $-4,290) |
| $85 | 25d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 15/20 | $6,840 | $7,340 | 51% | 68% | +$772 | -$9,513 | 16.7% | $-9,896 (vs do-nothing $-7,950) |
| $85 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.10 | 13/20 | $6,717 | $7,417 | 50% | 67% | +$481 | -$9,155 | 16.1% | $-9,746 (vs do-nothing $-7,800) |
| $85 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.65 | 9/20 | $6,505 | $7,605 | 49% | 66% | +$787 | -$6,743 | 11.9% | $-7,751 (vs do-nothing $-5,805) |
| $84.50 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.40 | 12/20 | $6,800 | $7,600 | 47% | 66% | +$522 | -$8,690 | 15.3% | $-9,386 (vs do-nothing $-7,440) |
| $85 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.70 | 6/20 | $7,650 | $9,050 | 47% | 69% | +$665 | -$5,065 | 8.9% | $-6,386 (vs do-nothing $-4,440) |
| $84 | 25d | 30 Oct 2026 | $4.30 | 13/20 | $6,708 | $7,408 | 46% | 66% | +$629 | -$8,895 | 15.7% | $-9,486 (vs do-nothing $-7,540) |
| $84.50 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.90 | 9/20 | $7,118 | $8,218 | 46% | 66% | +$743 | -$6,968 | 12.3% | $-7,976 (vs do-nothing $-6,030) |
| $84 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.70 | 11/20 | $6,783 | $7,683 | 45% | 66% | +$522 | -$8,186 | 14.4% | $-8,986 (vs do-nothing $-7,040) |
| $84 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 8/20 | $6,982 | $8,182 | 43% | 65% | +$689 | -$6,354 | 11.2% | $-7,466 (vs do-nothing $-5,520) |
| $84.50 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.95 | 5/20 | $7,312 | $8,812 | 42% | 67% | +$427 | -$4,346 | 7.7% | $-5,771 (vs do-nothing $-3,825) |
| $84 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.25 | 4/20 | $6,750 | $8,350 | 37% | 64% | +$303 | -$3,557 | 6.3% | $-5,086 (vs do-nothing $-3,140) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.