FORTRESS FIGHT: COPX @ $85.47

BE SS: $93.40  |  CC-SS: $96.79  |  20 contracts (2,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-12 21:48

COPX @ $85.47   UNDERWATER $7.94 (8.5% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $93.40  |  CC-SS: $96.79 (banked floor $93.69)  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $65 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $38.858/sh)
SP: $90 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $19.960/sh)
HP: $68 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $9.525/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$100,800(ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000
Normal income ref$12,273/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay โ‰ˆ $1,094/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-23,000fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,136/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$12,273/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.6 mo to earn back $56,800
ML VELOCITY
8.2 mo to earn back $100,800
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $96.79 (probe: $97C 11d) brings only $545/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
๐Ÿฆ CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$6,416
Hole (after banked)
$16,584
was $23,000 ยท 28% earned back
Cycles closed
14
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$96.79 → $93.69
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (14) and event log · CLOSED 7 · EXPIRED 5 · UNKNOWN 2 · updated 2026-10-12 21:43
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
EXPIRED20x $89C 9 Oct 2026$0.65$1,3002026-10-062026-10-12$0.00$1,300U6241782execution
EXPIRED20x $90C 2 Oct 2026$0.65$1,3062026-09-282026-10-05$0.00$1,306U6241782snapshot
EXPIRED20x $92C 25 Sep 2026$0.65$1,3102026-09-182026-09-28$0.00$1,310U6241782snapshot
UNKNOWN20x $100C 18 Sep 2026$1.31$2,6112026-08-052026-09-18$1.31$0U6241782snapshot
UNKNOWN20x $85C 7 Aug 2026$0.34$6862026-08-032026-08-05$0.34$0U6241782snapshot
EXPIRED20x $80.5C 31 Jul 2026$0.58$1,1662026-07-282026-08-03$0.00$1,166U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $85C 31 Jul 2026$0.40$402026-07-222026-07-28$0.10$30U6241782snapshot
CLOSED5x $85C 31 Jul 2026$0.40$2012026-07-222026-07-28$0.16$121U6241782snapshot
CLOSED5x $85C 31 Jul 2026$0.40$2012026-07-222026-07-28$0.16$121U6241782snapshot
CLOSED1x $85C 31 Jul 2026$0.40$402026-07-222026-07-28$0.16$24U6241782snapshot
CLOSED3x $85C 31 Jul 2026$0.40$1212026-07-222026-07-28$0.10$91U6241782snapshot
CLOSED5x $85C 31 Jul 2026$0.40$2012026-07-222026-07-28$0.10$151U6241782snapshot
EXPIRED19x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026$0.40$7602026-07-112026-07-18$0.00$760U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026$0.40$402026-07-112026-07-16$0.05$35U6241782execution
Event log
2026-10-12 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 20x $89C: banked $1,300
2026-10-06 SOLD 20x $89C 20261009 @ $0.65 (new leg)
2026-10-05 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 20x $90C: banked $1,306
2026-09-28 TRACKING 20x $90C 20261002 @ $0.65 (snapshot)
2026-09-28 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 20x $92C: banked $1,310
2026-09-18 TRACKING 20x $92C 20260925 @ $0.65 (snapshot)
2026-09-18 ? 20x $100C 20260918 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-08-05 TRACKING 20x $100C 20260918 @ $1.31 (snapshot)
2026-08-05 ? 20x $85C 20260807 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-08-03 TRACKING 20x $85C 20260807 @ $0.34 (snapshot)
2026-08-03 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 20x $80.5C: banked $1,166
2026-07-28 CLOSED 1x $85C 20260731: banked $30
2026-07-28 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $85C: banked $151 (1 remain)
2026-07-28 PARTIAL CLOSE 3x $85C: banked $91 (6 remain)
2026-07-28 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $85C: banked $24 (9 remain)
2026-07-28 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $85C: banked $121 (10 remain)
2026-07-28 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $85C: banked $121 (15 remain)
2026-07-28 SOLD 1x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 20)
2026-07-28 SOLD 5x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 19)
2026-07-28 SOLD 3x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 14)
2026-07-28 SOLD 1x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.61 (extends leg to 11)
2026-07-28 SOLD 5x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.61 (extends leg to 10)
2026-07-28 SOLD 5x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.61 (new leg)
2026-07-22 TRACKING 20x $85C 20260731 @ $0.40 (snapshot)
2026-07-18 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 19x $81.5C: banked $760
2026-07-16 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $81.5C: banked $35 (19 remain)
2026-07-11 SOLD 20x $81.5C 20260717 @ $0.40 (new leg)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL ยท %B 55 (live) ยท RSI 53 ยท MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) ยท RSI 48 ยท %B 45 ยท hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $96.02 (+12%) ยท daily UBB $89.06 ยท 1-wk expected move ยฑ$5 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 17 contracts at $89 / 4d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($6,136/mo); it brings $6,375/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 18 ร— $87/4d for $12,825/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 20 ร— $93/4d (95% survival, $1,500/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $12,396 (22% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $93, recoverable in 1.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 17 contracts realizes $-19,848 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 16 Oct 2026 (4d) · sell 17 × $89, 80% survival, $6,375/mo (E[net] $2,010/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆16 Oct 2026 · 4d17 × $8980%$6,375$2,010
NEXT FRIDAY23 Oct 2026 · 11d20 × $88.5069%$6,273$-937
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $850 with probability 74%; on the 26% touch you roll, paying $2,577 to close and taking $1,231 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,346) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 16 Oct 2026 · 4d · E[net] $2,010/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

๐ŸŽฏ Engine pick: sell 17 ร— $89 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $6,375/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (โ‰ˆ1ฯƒ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $90 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 20% โ†’ 15%) for $2,175/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
COPX  spot $85.47 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸๐Ÿ›ก safe yield20 × $9316 Oct4d8.8%95%hist 95%9%hist 4%-1pp$200$1,500-$4,875$7,383
Sell 20 ร— $93 8.8% OTM over spot $85.47 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.17 mid)
= $200 credit for the 4d cycle โ†’ $1,500/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $93)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays โ‰ค $93.17)
96%
EV / mo
+$926
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
-1pp
77% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.5/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,258/mo
median; plan ~$855/mo after 68% keep · $1,769 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.9], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
4%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,121
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)
$100 @ 79% POP
74% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now โ†’ $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.35โ€“$2.51) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.56/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 121 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $94 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9323 Oct 20269d left+$0.80/sh+$1,605
cycle +$1,805
[+$1,367โ€ฆ+$2,266] ยท 96% credit
65%
surv 51%
-$5,824 NOT
cap gain +$17,176
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9523 Oct 20269d left+$0.18/sh+$356
cycle +$556
[-$167โ€ฆ+$950] ยท 68% credit
70%
surv 60%
-$3,941 NOT
cap gain +$19,059
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$996 Nov 202623d left+$0.18/sh+$355
cycle +$555
[-$416โ€ฆ+$1,055] ยท 64% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$5,238 SAFE
cap gain +$28,238
Max even-money escape in the band~$1006 Nov 202623d left+$0.07/sh+$135
cycle +$335
[-$688โ€ฆ+$819] ยท 58% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$6,038 SAFE
cap gain +$29,038
reaches SS โœ“
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,500/mo
vs 50% target ($6,136/mo)-76%
vs normal income ($12,273/mo)12% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,500/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $93 is $4 below CC-SS $96.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$7,383
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($56,800)13.0%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($100,800)7.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.6 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-23,150
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $93.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $92.07Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$92-93.17
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $93.17
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$93.00 (2.0ฯƒ)$200$-7,429+$15,571-$400
+2.5%$95.32 (2.6ฯƒ)$-4,450$-7,336+$15,664-$1,400
+5%$97.65 (3.2ฯƒ)$-9,100$-7,243+$15,757-$1,400
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $96.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,106
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร— $93): -$7,383
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,277 (+$15,723 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,877 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,400, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now)
▸33% normal16 × $9016 Oct4d5.3%85%hist 86%29%hist 24%+3pp$560$4,200-$2,175$10,307
Sell 16 ร— $90 5.3% OTM over spot $85.47 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.45 mid)
= $560 credit for the 4d cycle โ†’ $4,200/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $90)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays โ‰ค $90.45)
88%
EV / mo
+$1,761
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
82% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.5/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$3,286/mo
median; plan ~$2,234/mo after 68% keep · $5,381 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
18%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,922
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)
$98 @ 81% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.19/sh now โ†’ $1.55 mid-life (likely $1.49โ€“$2.64) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 545 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $91 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (16 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9023 Oct 20269d left+$0.74/sh+$1,189
cycle +$1,749
[+$714โ€ฆ+$1,586] ยท 94% credit
65%
surv 51%
-$11,880 NOT
cap gain +$11,120
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$956 Nov 202623d left+$0.47/sh+$751
cycle +$1,311
[-$31โ€ฆ+$1,097] ยท 73% credit
75%
surv 69%
-$3,480 NOT
cap gain +$19,520
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9223 Oct 20269d left+$0.12/sh+$198
cycle +$758
[-$434โ€ฆ+$495] ยท 52% credit
70%
surv 61%
-$9,739 NOT
cap gain +$13,261
Max even-money escape in the band~$966 Nov 202623d left+$0.06/sh+$91
cycle +$651
[-$794โ€ฆ+$406] ยท 41% credit
78%
surv 74%
-$1,681 NOT
cap gain +$21,319
reaches SS โœ“
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$986 Nov 202623d left-$0.26/sh-$422
cycle +$138
[-$1,406โ€ฆ-$151] ยท 20% credit
81%
surv 78%
+$267 SAFE
cap gain +$23,267
budget: banked $560 debit $422 (75% used โ‰ˆ 0.4 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$138 cash ยท rolled 16 ct earn โ‰ˆ $2,687/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell ยท clears SS โœ“
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,200/mo
vs 50% target ($6,136/mo)-32%
vs normal income ($12,273/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,527/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $90 is $7 below CC-SS $96.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,307
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($56,800)18.1%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($100,800)10.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.8 mo
Surgical close (16 ct)$-18,560
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $90.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $89.10Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$89-90.45
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $90.45
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$90.00 (1.2ฯƒ)$560$-13,069+$9,931+$80
+2.5%$92.25 (1.8ฯƒ)$-3,040$-12,079+$10,921-$3,520
+5%$94.50 (2.4ฯƒ)$-6,640$-11,489+$11,511-$5,520
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $96.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,106
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (16 ร— $90): -$10,307
โˆ’ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 ร— $93.50): -$1,197
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,397 (+$11,603 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,877 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,520, the opportunity cost of earning $4,200/mo FIGHT income now)
▸๐ŸŽฏ 50% normal17 × $8916 Oct4d4.1%80%hist 86%41%hist 42%+5pp$850$6,375—$12,396
Sell 17 ร— $89 4.1% OTM over spot $85.47 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.68 mid)
= $850 credit for the 4d cycle โ†’ $6,375/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $89)
80%
Breach risk
20%
POP (stays โ‰ค $89.67)
84%
EV / mo
+$2,175
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
86% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$4,321/mo
median; plan ~$2,938/mo after 68% keep · $5,213 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
26%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,727
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)
$97 @ 82% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now โ†’ $1.52 mid-life (likely $1.60โ€“$2.70) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 795 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $90 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (17 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8923 Oct 20269d left+$0.72/sh+$1,231
cycle +$2,081
[+$665โ€ฆ+$1,501] ยท 93% credit
65%
surv 51%
-$13,618 NOT
cap gain +$9,382
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$946 Nov 202623d left+$0.43/sh+$725
cycle +$1,575
[-$256โ€ฆ+$856] ยท 65% credit
75%
surv 69%
-$4,883 NOT
cap gain +$18,117
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9123 Oct 20269d left+$0.11/sh+$181
cycle +$1,031
[-$639โ€ฆ+$281] ยท 40% credit
70%
surv 61%
-$11,536 NOT
cap gain +$11,464
Max even-money escape in the band~$956 Nov 202623d left+$0.02/sh+$31
cycle +$881
[-$1,076โ€ฆ+$85] ยท 27% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$2,967 NOT
cap gain +$20,033
reaches SS โœ“
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$976 Nov 202623d left-$0.30/sh-$502
cycle +$348
[-$1,750โ€ฆ-$509] ยท 13% credit
82%
surv 79%
-$889 NOT
cap gain +$22,111
budget: banked $850 debit $502 (59% used โ‰ˆ 0.3 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$348 cash ยท rolled 17 ct earn โ‰ˆ $2,706/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell ยท clears SS โœ“
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,375/mo
vs 50% target ($6,136/mo)+4%
vs normal income ($12,273/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,620/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $89 is $8 below CC-SS $96.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$12,396
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($56,800)21.8%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($100,800)12.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (17 ct)$-19,848
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $89.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $88.11Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$88-89.67
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $89.67
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$89.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$850$-14,849+$8,151+$340
+2.5%$91.22 (1.5ฯƒ)$-2,932$-14,092+$8,908-$3,442
+5%$93.45 (2.1ฯƒ)$-6,715$-13,336+$9,664-$7,225
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $96.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,106
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (17 ร— $89): -$12,396
โˆ’ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 ร— $93.50): -$897
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,187 (+$9,813 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,877 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,310, the opportunity cost of earning $6,375/mo FIGHT income now)
▸100% normal18 × $8716 Oct4d1.8%65%hist 64%71%hist 69%+8pp$1,710$12,825+$6,450$15,915
Sell 18 ร— $87 1.8% OTM over spot $85.47 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $1.12 mid)
= $1,710 credit for the 4d cycle โ†’ $12,825/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $87)
65%
Breach risk
35%
POP (stays โ‰ค $88.12)
74%
EV / mo
+$2,187
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+8pp
88% whole by 9mo vs 79% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$6,300/mo
median; plan ~$4,284/mo after 68% keep · $6,977 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-1.7], measured ONLY among the 88% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
51%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$892
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)
$98 @ 88% POP
86% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.04/sh now โ†’ $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.82โ€“$2.99) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,526 simulated challenges: the $87 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $88 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (18 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8723 Oct 20269d left+$0.69/sh+$1,235
cycle +$2,945
[+$329โ€ฆ+$1,114] ยท 86% credit
65%
surv 51%
-$16,864 NOT
cap gain +$6,136
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$916 Nov 202623d left+$0.59/sh+$1,068
cycle +$2,778
[-$336โ€ฆ+$795] ยท 64% credit
73%
surv 66%
-$9,819 NOT
cap gain +$13,181
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$8923 Oct 20269d left+$0.07/sh+$130
cycle +$1,840
[-$1,061โ€ฆ-$122] ยท 20% credit
71%
surv 61%
-$14,837 NOT
cap gain +$8,163
Max even-money escape in the band~$936 Nov 202623d left+$0.09/sh+$168
cycle +$1,878
[-$1,426โ€ฆ-$188] ยท 19% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$6,639 NOT
cap gain +$16,361
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$986 Nov 202623d left-$0.85/sh-$1,535
cycle +$175
[-$3,698โ€ฆ-$2,078]
88%
surv 86%
+$1,050 SAFE
cap gain +$24,050
budget: banked $1,710 debit $1,535 (90% used โ‰ˆ 0.5 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$175 cash ยท rolled 18 ct earn โ‰ˆ $1,392/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell ยท clears SS โœ“
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$12,825/mo
vs 50% target ($6,136/mo)+109%
vs normal income ($12,273/mo)105% covered
Net income (after hedge)$12,989/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $87 is $10 below CC-SS $96.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$15,915
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($56,800)28.0%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($100,800)15.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.3 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)$-21,015
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.95 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $88.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $87)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $86.13Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$86-88.12
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $88.12
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$87.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$1,710$-18,099+$4,901+$1,170
+2.5%$89.17 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$-2,205$-17,577+$5,423-$2,745
+5%$91.35 (1.5ฯƒ)$-6,120$-17,055+$5,945-$6,660
SS (= V-bounce)$93.40 (2.1ฯƒ)$-9,810$-16,563+$6,437-$10,350
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $96.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,106
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร— $87): -$15,915
โˆ’ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร— $93.50): -$598
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,407 (+$6,593 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,877 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,530, the opportunity cost of earning $12,825/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COPX are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 23 Oct 2026 · 11d · E[net] $-937/mo

๐ŸŽฏ Engine pick: sell 20 ร— $88.50 (50% normal), 69% survival, breach 31%, $6,273/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $90 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 77% (breach 31% โ†’ 23%) for $2,100/mo less (33% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
COPX  spot $85.47 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸๐Ÿ›ก safe yield20 × $9423 Oct11d10.0%90%hist 95%19%hist 14%-2pp$500$1,364-$4,909$5,083
Sell 20 ร— $94 10.0% OTM over spot $85.47 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.45 mid)
= $500 credit for the 11d cycle โ†’ $1,364/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $94)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays โ‰ค $94.45)
91%
EV / mo
+$439
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
-2pp
78% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.4/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,071/mo
median; plan ~$729/mo after 68% keep · $1,524 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
15%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,311
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)
$98 @ 72% POP
65% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.40/sh now โ†’ $2.41 mid-life (likely $1.92โ€“$3.18) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.16/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 439 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $95 (overshoots $1.19). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9430 Oct 202612d left+$0.58/sh+$1,163
cycle +$1,663
[+$853โ€ฆ+$2,069] ยท 99% credit
66%
surv 52%
-$3,926 NOT
cap gain +$19,074
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9530 Oct 202612d left+$0.17/sh+$330
cycle +$830
[-$77โ€ฆ+$1,112] ยท 70% credit
68%
surv 57%
-$2,647 NOT
cap gain +$20,353
Max even-money escape in the band~$976 Nov 202620d left+$0.16/sh+$314
cycle +$814
[-$273โ€ฆ+$1,241] ยท 65% credit
70%
surv 62%
+$396 SAFE
cap gain +$23,396
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$986 Nov 202620d left-$0.09/sh-$189
cycle +$311
[-$800โ€ฆ+$687] ยท 46% credit
72%
surv 65%
+$1,934 SAFE
cap gain +$24,934
budget: banked $500 debit $189 (38% used โ‰ˆ 0.6 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$311 cash ยท rolled 20 ct earn โ‰ˆ $6,933/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,364/mo
vs 50% target ($6,136/mo)-78%
vs normal income ($12,273/mo)11% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,364/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $94 is $3 below CC-SS $96.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,083
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($56,800)8.9%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($100,800)5.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.4 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-23,400
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $94.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 6d left3-5d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $93.06Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$93-94.45
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $94.45
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$94.00 (1.3ฯƒ)$500$-5,089+$17,911+$900
+2.5%$96.35 (1.7ฯƒ)$-4,200$-4,995+$18,005+$900
+5%$98.70 (2.1ฯƒ)$-8,900$-4,901+$18,099+$900
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $96.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,106
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร— $94): -$5,083
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,977 (+$18,023 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,877 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$900, the opportunity cost of earning $1,364/mo FIGHT income now)
▸33% normal18 × $9023 Oct11d5.3%77%hist 82%48%hist 42%+3pp$1,530$4,173-$2,100$10,695
Sell 18 ร— $90 5.3% OTM over spot $85.47 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.98 mid)
= $1,530 credit for the 11d cycle โ†’ $4,173/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $90)
77%
Breach risk
23%
POP (stays โ‰ค $90.97)
81%
EV / mo
+$958
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
80% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,924/mo
median; plan ~$1,989/mo after 68% keep · $4,803 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
37%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,412
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)
$96 @ 79% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now โ†’ $2.19 mid-life (likely $2.29โ€“$3.41) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,103 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $91 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (18 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9030 Oct 202612d left+$0.53/sh+$950
cycle +$2,480
[+$407โ€ฆ+$1,162] ยท 95% credit
66%
surv 52%
-$11,208 NOT
cap gain +$11,792
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$926 Nov 202620d left+$0.37/sh+$666
cycle +$2,196
[-$173โ€ฆ+$820] ยท 63% credit
68%
surv 58%
-$8,362 NOT
cap gain +$14,638
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9130 Oct 202612d left+$0.11/sh+$202
cycle +$1,732
[-$424โ€ฆ+$313] ยท 40% credit
69%
surv 57%
-$9,845 NOT
cap gain +$13,155
Max even-money escape in the band~$936 Nov 202620d left+$0.07/sh+$124
cycle +$1,654
[-$770โ€ฆ+$233] ยท 34% credit
71%
surv 62%
-$6,863 NOT
cap gain +$16,137
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$966 Nov 202620d left-$0.83/sh-$1,486
cycle +$44
[-$2,657โ€ฆ-$1,491] ยท 3% credit
79%
surv 75%
-$1,840 NOT
cap gain +$21,160
budget: banked $1,530 debit $1,486 (97% used โ‰ˆ 1.5 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$44 cash ยท rolled 18 ct earn โ‰ˆ $3,684/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell ยท clears SS โœ“
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,173/mo
vs 50% target ($6,136/mo)-32%
vs normal income ($12,273/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,336/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $90 is $7 below CC-SS $96.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,695
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($56,800)18.8%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($100,800)10.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.9 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)$-20,925
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $90.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 6d left3-5d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $89.10Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$89-90.97
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $90.97
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$90.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$1,530$-12,159+$10,841+$990
+2.5%$92.25 (1.1ฯƒ)$-2,520$-11,619+$11,381-$3,060
+5%$94.50 (1.4ฯƒ)$-6,570$-11,279+$11,721-$5,310
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $96.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,106
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร— $90): -$10,695
โˆ’ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร— $93.50): -$598
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,187 (+$11,813 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,877 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,310, the opportunity cost of earning $4,173/mo FIGHT income now)
▸๐ŸŽฏ 50% normal20 × $88.5023 Oct11d3.6%69%hist 64%63%hist 57%+4pp$2,300$6,273—$14,283
Sell 20 ร— $88.50 3.6% OTM over spot $85.47 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.38 mid)
= $2,300 credit for the 11d cycle โ†’ $6,273/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $88.50)
69%
Breach risk
31%
POP (stays โ‰ค $89.88)
76%
EV / mo
+$774
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
82% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$4,059/mo
median; plan ~$2,760/mo after 68% keep · $4,717 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
50%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,924
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)
$96 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.99/sh now โ†’ $2.11 mid-life (likely $2.44โ€“$3.48) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,507 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $90 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8830 Oct 202612d left+$0.51/sh+$1,017
cycle +$3,317
[+$341โ€ฆ+$999] ยท 94% credit
66%
surv 52%
-$13,491 NOT
cap gain +$9,509
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$906 Nov 202620d left+$0.63/sh+$1,261
cycle +$3,561
[+$314โ€ฆ+$1,164] ยท 89% credit
67%
surv 56%
-$11,136 NOT
cap gain +$11,864
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9030 Oct 202612d left+$0.09/sh+$186
cycle +$2,486
[-$611โ€ฆ+$69] ยท 28% credit
69%
surv 57%
-$12,211 NOT
cap gain +$10,789
Max even-money escape in the band~$916 Nov 202620d left+$0.04/sh+$75
cycle +$2,375
[-$1,078โ€ฆ-$131] ยท 22% credit
71%
surv 63%
-$9,262 NOT
cap gain +$13,738
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$966 Nov 202620d left-$1.13/sh-$2,267
cycle +$33
[-$3,917โ€ฆ-$2,663]
83%
surv 80%
-$1,405 NOT
cap gain +$21,595
budget: banked $2,300 debit $2,267 (99% used โ‰ˆ 1.6 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$33 cash ยท rolled 20 ct earn โ‰ˆ $2,934/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell ยท clears SS โœ“
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,273/mo
vs 50% target ($6,136/mo)+2%
vs normal income ($12,273/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,273/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $88.50 is $8 below CC-SS $96.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$14,283
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($56,800)25.1%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($100,800)14.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-23,450
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $89.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 6d left3-5d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $87.61Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$88-89.88
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $89.88
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$88.50 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$2,300$-14,509+$8,491+$1,700
+2.5%$90.71 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$-2,125$-14,420+$8,580-$2,725
+5%$92.92 (1.2ฯƒ)$-6,550$-14,332+$8,668-$7,150
SS (= V-bounce)$93.40 (1.2ฯƒ)$-7,500$-14,313+$8,687-$8,100
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $96.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,106
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร— $88.50): -$14,283
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,177 (+$8,823 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,877 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,300, the opportunity cost of earning $6,273/mo FIGHT income now)
▸100% normal20 × $85.5023 Oct11d0.0%52%hist 67%100%hist 90%+7pp$4,500$12,273+$6,000$18,083
Sell 20 ร— $85.50 0.0% OTM over spot $85.47 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $2.50 mid)
= $4,500 credit for the 11d cycle โ†’ $12,273/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $85.50)
52%
Breach risk
48%
POP (stays โ‰ค $88.00)
67%
EV / mo
+$662
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+7pp
85% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~4.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$6,907/mo
median; plan ~$4,697/mo after 68% keep · $8,549 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.8], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
82%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$581
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)
$97 @ 91% POP
91% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.77/sh now โ†’ $1.96 mid-life (likely $2.81โ€“$3.95) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.29/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 2,471 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $87 (overshoots $1.44). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$866 Nov 202620d left+$0.76/sh+$1,511
cycle +$6,011
[+$214โ€ฆ+$766] ยท 84% credit
66%
surv 54%
-$15,827 NOT
cap gain +$7,173
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8630 Oct 202612d left+$0.47/sh+$942
cycle +$5,442
[-$32โ€ฆ+$373] ยท 73% credit
66%
surv 52%
-$17,486 NOT
cap gain +$5,514
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$8730 Oct 202612d left+$0.06/sh+$112
cycle +$4,612
[-$1,049โ€ฆ-$492] ยท 7% credit
69%
surv 58%
-$16,205 NOT
cap gain +$6,795
Max even-money escape in the band~$886 Nov 202620d left+$0.08/sh+$165
cycle +$4,665
[-$1,514โ€ฆ-$680] ยท 7% credit
70%
surv 61%
-$14,112 NOT
cap gain +$8,888
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$976 Nov 202620d left-$1.63/sh-$3,268
cycle +$1,232
[-$6,394โ€ฆ-$4,616]
91%
surv 91%
+$1,835 SAFE
cap gain +$24,835
budget: banked $4,500 debit $3,268 (73% used โ‰ˆ 1.2 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$1,232 cash ยท rolled 20 ct earn โ‰ˆ $977/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell ยท clears SS โœ“
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$12,273/mo
vs 50% target ($6,136/mo)+100%
vs normal income ($12,273/mo)100% covered
Net income (after hedge)$12,273/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $85.50 is $11 below CC-SS $96.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$18,083
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($56,800)31.8%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($100,800)17.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.5 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-23,500
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.25 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $88.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 6d left3-5d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $84.64Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$85-88.00
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $88.00
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$85.50 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$4,500$-18,429+$4,571+$3,900
+2.5%$87.64 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$225$-18,343+$4,657-$375
+5%$89.78 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$-4,050$-18,258+$4,742-$4,650
SS (= V-bounce)$93.40 (1.2ฯƒ)$-11,300$-18,113+$4,887-$11,900
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $96.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,106
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร— $85.50): -$18,083
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,977 (+$5,023 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,877 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,100, the opportunity cost of earning $12,273/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COPX are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (36 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ŸŽฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.020 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$23,106 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,877

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$894d16 Oct 2026$0.5017/20$850$6,375$6,62080%hist 86%41%hist 42%84%+$2,175-$12,39621.8%1.0mo$-13,187 (vs do-nothing $-7,310)
$884d16 Oct 2026$0.7511/20$825$6,188$6,92473%hist 82%54%hist 45%79%+$1,919-$8,84615.6%0.7mo$-11,432 (vs do-nothing $-5,555)
$87.504d16 Oct 2026$0.6513/20$845$6,338$6,91069%hist 64%62%hist 57%76%+$87-$11,23419.8%0.9mo$-13,222 (vs do-nothing $-7,345)
$88.5011d23 Oct 2026$1.1520/20$2,300$6,273$6,27369%hist 64%63%hist 57%76%+$774-$14,28325.1%1.2mo$-14,177 (vs do-nothing $-8,300)
$8811d23 Oct 2026$1.3517/20$2,295$6,259$6,50566%hist 64%69%hist 57%74%+$804-$12,65122.3%1.0mo$-13,442 (vs do-nothing $-7,565)
$874d16 Oct 2026$0.959/20$855$6,412$7,31265%hist 64%71%hist 69%74%+$1,094-$7,95714.0%0.6mo$-11,142 (vs do-nothing $-5,265)
$87.5011d23 Oct 2026$1.4516/20$2,320$6,327$6,65564%hist 64%74%hist 69%73%+$691-$12,54722.1%1.0mo$-13,637 (vs do-nothing $-7,760)
$8818d30 Oct 2026$1.9020/20$3,800$6,333$6,33364%hist 64%75%hist 69%73%+$687-$13,78324.3%1.1mo$-13,677 (vs do-nothing $-7,800)
$87.5018d30 Oct 2026$2.1018/20$3,780$6,300$6,46462%hist 64%79%hist 69%72%+$701-$12,94522.8%1.1mo$-13,437 (vs do-nothing $-7,560)
$8711d23 Oct 2026$1.6514/20$2,310$6,300$6,79161%hist 64%80%hist 79%71%+$642-$11,39820.1%0.9mo$-13,087 (vs do-nothing $-7,210)
$86.504d16 Oct 2026$1.009/20$900$6,750$7,65061%hist 64%80%hist 69%72%+$267-$8,36214.7%0.7mo$-11,547 (vs do-nothing $-5,670)
$8718d30 Oct 2026$2.3017/20$3,910$6,517$6,76259%hist 67%84%hist 79%71%+$700-$12,73622.4%1.0mo$-13,527 (vs do-nothing $-7,650)
$8725d6 Nov 2026$2.6020/20$5,200$6,240$6,24059%hist 67%87%hist 79%70%+$80-$14,38325.3%1.2mo$-14,277 (vs do-nothing $-8,400)
Show 23 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$86.5011d23 Oct 2026$1.8013/20$2,340$6,382$6,95558%hist 67%86%hist 79%70%+$493-$11,03919.4%0.9mo$-13,027 (vs do-nothing $-7,150)
$86.5018d30 Oct 2026$2.5015/20$3,750$6,250$6,65957%hist 67%89%hist 79%70%+$616-$11,68720.6%1.0mo$-13,077 (vs do-nothing $-7,200)
$86.5025d6 Nov 2026$2.9018/20$5,220$6,264$6,42856%hist 67%91%hist 90%69%+$268-$13,30523.4%1.1mo$-13,797 (vs do-nothing $-7,920)
$864d16 Oct 2026$1.307/20$910$6,825$7,88956%hist 67%89%hist 79%69%+$732-$6,64411.7%0.5mo$-10,427 (vs do-nothing $-4,550)
$8611d23 Oct 2026$2.0012/20$2,400$6,545$7,20055%hist 67%93%hist 90%68%+$408-$10,55018.6%0.9mo$-12,837 (vs do-nothing $-6,960)
$8618d30 Oct 2026$2.8014/20$3,920$6,533$7,02455%hist 67%94%hist 90%69%+$771-$11,18819.7%0.9mo$-12,877 (vs do-nothing $-7,000)
$8625d6 Nov 2026$3.1017/20$5,270$6,324$6,56954%hist 67%95%hist 90%68%+$209-$13,07623.0%1.1mo$-13,867 (vs do-nothing $-7,990)
$85.5025d6 Nov 2026$3.3016/20$5,280$6,336$6,66352%hist 67%100%hist 90%67%+$132-$12,78722.5%1.0mo$-13,877 (vs do-nothing $-8,000)
$85.5018d30 Oct 2026$2.9013/20$3,770$6,283$6,85652%hist 67%100%hist 90%68%+$433-$10,90919.2%0.9mo$-12,897 (vs do-nothing $-7,020)
$85.5011d23 Oct 2026$2.2510/20$2,250$6,136$6,95552%hist 67%100%hist 90%67%+$331-$9,04215.9%0.7mo$-11,927 (vs do-nothing $-6,050)
$85.504d16 Oct 2026$1.406/20$840$6,300$7,44551%hist 67%99%hist 90%67%+$46-$5,93510.4%0.5mo$-10,017 (vs do-nothing $-4,140)
$8525d6 Nov 2026$3.7014/20$5,180$6,216$6,70750%hist 67%100%hist 90%66%+$375-$11,32819.9%0.9mo$-13,017 (vs do-nothing $-7,140)
$8518d30 Oct 2026$3.1012/20$3,720$6,200$6,85550%100%hist 90%66%+$308-$10,43018.4%0.8mo$-12,717 (vs do-nothing $-6,840)
$8511d23 Oct 2026$2.509/20$2,250$6,136$7,03649%100%hist 90%65%+$290-$8,36214.7%0.7mo$-11,547 (vs do-nothing $-5,670)
$84.5025d6 Nov 2026$3.8014/20$5,320$6,384$6,87548%100%hist 90%65%+$109-$11,88820.9%1.0mo$-13,577 (vs do-nothing $-7,700)
$84.5018d30 Oct 2026$3.4011/20$3,740$6,233$6,97047%100%hist 90%65%+$353-$9,78117.2%0.8mo$-12,367 (vs do-nothing $-6,490)
$854d16 Oct 2026$1.655/20$825$6,188$7,41546%100%hist 90%64%+$4-$5,0718.9%0.4mo$-9,452 (vs do-nothing $-3,575)
$8425d6 Nov 2026$4.1013/20$5,330$6,396$6,96946%100%hist 90%65%+$148-$11,29919.9%0.9mo$-13,287 (vs do-nothing $-7,410)
$84.5011d23 Oct 2026$2.759/20$2,475$6,750$7,65046%100%hist 90%64%+$17-$8,58715.1%0.7mo$-11,772 (vs do-nothing $-5,895)
$8418d30 Oct 2026$3.6011/20$3,960$6,600$7,33645%100%hist 90%64%+$212-$10,11117.8%0.8mo$-12,697 (vs do-nothing $-6,820)
$8411d23 Oct 2026$3.008/20$2,400$6,545$7,52742%100%hist 90%64%+$296-$7,83313.8%0.6mo$-11,317 (vs do-nothing $-5,440)
$84.504d16 Oct 2026$1.955/20$975$7,312$8,54042%100%hist 90%63%+$46-$5,1719.1%0.4mo$-9,552 (vs do-nothing $-3,675)
$844d16 Oct 2026$2.404/20$960$7,200$8,50937%100%hist 90%61%+$434-$4,1577.3%0.3mo$-8,837 (vs do-nothing $-2,960)
78 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$954d16 Oct 2026$0.0520/20$100$750$75098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$601-$3,4836.1%0.3mo$-3,377 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10011d23 Oct 2026$0.0520/20$100$273$27398%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$157-$00.0%0.0mo$206 (vs do-nothing +$6,083)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$99.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.0520/20$100$273$27398%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$135-$00.0%0.0mo$206 (vs do-nothing +$6,083)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9911d23 Oct 2026$0.0520/20$100$273$27397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$108-$00.0%0.0mo$206 (vs do-nothing +$6,083)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$98.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.0520/20$100$273$27397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$77-$00.0%0.0mo$206 (vs do-nothing +$6,083)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10525d6 Nov 2026$0.0520/20$100$120$12097%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%$-35-$00.0%0.0mo$206 (vs do-nothing +$6,083)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9811d23 Oct 2026$0.1020/20$200$545$54596%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$313-$00.0%0.0mo$306 (vs do-nothing +$6,183)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10318d30 Oct 2026$0.1020/20$200$333$33396%hist 95%8%hist 4%97%+$112-$00.0%0.0mo$306 (vs do-nothing +$6,183)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.1020/20$200$545$54596%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$268-$00.0%0.0mo$306 (vs do-nothing +$6,183)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10218d30 Oct 2026$0.1020/20$200$333$33396%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$59-$00.0%0.0mo$306 (vs do-nothing +$6,183)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9711d23 Oct 2026$0.1020/20$200$545$54595%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$215-$00.0%0.0mo$306 (vs do-nothing +$6,183)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$934d16 Oct 2026$0.1020/20$200$1,500$1,50095%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$926-$7,38313.0%0.6mo$-7,277 (vs do-nothing $-1,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$96.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.1020/20$200$545$54595%hist 95%11%hist 14%95%+$153-$3830.7%0.0mo$-277 (vs do-nothing +$5,600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10518d30 Oct 2026$0.0520/20$100$167$16794%hist 95%12%hist 14%94%$-417-$00.0%0.0mo$206 (vs do-nothing +$6,083)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9611d23 Oct 2026$0.1520/20$300$818$81894%hist 95%12%hist 14%95%+$351-$1,2832.3%0.1mo$-1,177 (vs do-nothing +$4,700)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10018d30 Oct 2026$0.1520/20$300$500$50094%hist 95%12%hist 14%94%+$76-$00.0%0.0mo$406 (vs do-nothing +$6,283)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$99.5018d30 Oct 2026$0.2020/20$400$667$66793%hist 95%13%hist 14%94%+$194-$00.0%0.0mo$506 (vs do-nothing +$6,383)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.1520/20$300$818$81893%hist 95%14%hist 14%94%+$263-$2,2834.0%0.2mo$-2,177 (vs do-nothing +$3,700)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$924d16 Oct 2026$0.1020/20$200$1,500$1,50093%hist 95%14%hist 14%94%+$455-$9,38316.5%0.8mo$-9,277 (vs do-nothing $-3,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9918d30 Oct 2026$0.2020/20$400$667$66793%hist 95%14%hist 14%94%+$139-$00.0%0.0mo$506 (vs do-nothing +$6,383)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10025d6 Nov 2026$0.2520/20$500$600$60092%hist 95%15%hist 14%93%+$133-$00.0%0.0mo$606 (vs do-nothing +$6,483)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9511d23 Oct 2026$0.2020/20$400$1,091$1,09192%hist 95%15%hist 14%93%+$432-$3,1835.6%0.3mo$-3,077 (vs do-nothing +$2,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$98.5018d30 Oct 2026$0.2520/20$500$833$83392%hist 95%16%hist 14%93%+$244-$00.0%0.0mo$606 (vs do-nothing +$6,483)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9818d30 Oct 2026$0.2520/20$500$833$83392%hist 95%17%hist 14%92%+$175-$00.0%0.0mo$606 (vs do-nothing +$6,483)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.2020/20$400$1,091$1,09192%hist 95%17%hist 14%92%+$310-$4,1837.4%0.3mo$-4,077 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91.504d16 Oct 2026$0.0520/20$100$750$75091%hist 95%17%hist 14%93%$-636-$10,48318.5%0.9mo$-10,377 (vs do-nothing $-4,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9925d6 Nov 2026$0.3020/20$600$720$72091%hist 95%18%hist 14%92%+$141-$00.0%0.0mo$706 (vs do-nothing +$6,583)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97.5018d30 Oct 2026$0.3020/20$600$1,000$1,00091%hist 95%18%hist 14%92%+$265-$00.0%0.0mo$706 (vs do-nothing +$6,583)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9411d23 Oct 2026$0.2520/20$500$1,364$1,36490%hist 95%19%hist 14%91%+$439-$5,0838.9%0.4mo$-4,977 (vs do-nothing +$900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9718d30 Oct 2026$0.3020/20$600$1,000$1,00090%hist 95%20%hist 14%91%+$179-$00.0%0.0mo$706 (vs do-nothing +$6,583)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9825d6 Nov 2026$0.4020/20$800$960$96090%hist 86%21%hist 24%91%+$243-$00.0%0.0mo$906 (vs do-nothing +$6,783)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$914d16 Oct 2026$0.0520/20$100$750$75090%hist 86%21%hist 24%91%$-1,070-$11,48320.2%0.9mo$-11,377 (vs do-nothing $-5,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$96.5018d30 Oct 2026$0.3520/20$700$1,167$1,16790%hist 86%21%hist 24%91%+$250-$00.0%0.0mo$223 (vs do-nothing +$6,100)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.3020/20$600$1,636$1,63689%hist 86%22%hist 24%91%+$543-$5,98310.5%0.5mo$-5,877 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9618d30 Oct 2026$0.4020/20$800$1,333$1,33389%hist 86%23%hist 24%90%+$309-$7831.4%0.1mo$-677 (vs do-nothing +$5,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9725d6 Nov 2026$0.5020/20$1,000$1,200$1,20088%hist 86%24%hist 24%90%+$314-$00.0%0.0mo$1,106 (vs do-nothing +$6,983)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9311d23 Oct 2026$0.3520/20$700$1,909$1,90988%hist 86%25%hist 24%89%+$618-$6,88312.1%0.6mo$-6,777 (vs do-nothing $-900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90.504d16 Oct 2026$0.1020/20$200$1,500$1,50088%hist 86%25%hist 24%90%$-866-$12,38321.8%1.0mo$-12,277 (vs do-nothing $-6,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95.5018d30 Oct 2026$0.4520/20$900$1,500$1,50088%hist 86%25%hist 24%89%+$355-$1,6833.0%0.1mo$-1,577 (vs do-nothing +$4,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9518d30 Oct 2026$0.5020/20$1,000$1,667$1,66787%hist 86%27%hist 24%88%+$388-$2,5834.5%0.2mo$-2,477 (vs do-nothing +$3,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.4020/20$800$2,182$2,18287%hist 86%27%hist 24%88%+$660-$7,78313.7%0.6mo$-7,677 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9625d6 Nov 2026$0.6020/20$1,200$1,440$1,44086%hist 86%28%hist 24%88%+$350-$3830.7%0.0mo$-277 (vs do-nothing +$5,600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94.5018d30 Oct 2026$0.5520/20$1,100$1,833$1,83386%hist 86%29%hist 24%87%+$405-$3,4836.1%0.3mo$-3,377 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$904d16 Oct 2026$0.3520/20$700$5,250$5,25085%hist 86%29%hist 24%88%+$2,201-$12,88322.7%1.0mo$-12,777 (vs do-nothing $-6,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9211d23 Oct 2026$0.4520/20$900$2,455$2,45585%hist 86%31%hist 32%87%+$665-$8,68315.3%0.7mo$-8,577 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9418d30 Oct 2026$0.6020/20$1,200$2,000$2,00085%hist 86%32%hist 32%87%+$405-$4,3837.7%0.4mo$-4,277 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9525d6 Nov 2026$0.8020/20$1,600$1,920$1,92084%hist 86%32%hist 32%87%+$582-$1,9833.5%0.2mo$-1,877 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93.5018d30 Oct 2026$0.6520/20$1,300$2,167$2,16783%hist 86%34%hist 32%86%+$387-$5,2839.3%0.4mo$-5,177 (vs do-nothing +$700)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.5520/20$1,100$3,000$3,00083%hist 86%34%hist 32%86%+$900-$9,48316.7%0.8mo$-9,377 (vs do-nothing $-3,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9425d6 Nov 2026$0.9020/20$1,800$2,160$2,16082%hist 86%37%hist 32%85%+$523-$3,7836.7%0.3mo$-3,677 (vs do-nothing +$2,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9318d30 Oct 2026$0.7520/20$1,500$2,500$2,50082%hist 86%37%hist 32%85%+$514-$6,08310.7%0.5mo$-5,977 (vs do-nothing $-100)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9111d23 Oct 2026$0.6020/20$1,200$3,273$3,27381%hist 86%38%hist 32%85%+$815-$10,38318.3%0.8mo$-10,277 (vs do-nothing $-4,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92.5018d30 Oct 2026$0.8020/20$1,600$2,667$2,66781%hist 86%40%hist 32%84%+$452-$6,98312.3%0.6mo$-6,877 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9325d6 Nov 2026$1.1020/20$2,200$2,640$2,64079%hist 82%42%hist 42%83%+$645-$5,3839.5%0.4mo$-5,277 (vs do-nothing +$600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9218d30 Oct 2026$0.9020/20$1,800$3,000$3,00079%hist 82%43%hist 42%83%+$533-$7,78313.7%0.6mo$-7,677 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.7020/20$1,400$3,818$3,81878%hist 82%44%hist 42%82%+$591-$11,18319.7%0.9mo$-11,077 (vs do-nothing $-5,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92.5025d6 Nov 2026$1.2020/20$2,400$2,880$2,88078%hist 82%45%hist 42%82%+$682-$6,18310.9%0.5mo$-6,077 (vs do-nothing $-200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91.5018d30 Oct 2026$1.0020/20$2,000$3,333$3,33377%hist 82%46%hist 42%81%+$586-$8,58315.1%0.7mo$-8,477 (vs do-nothing $-2,600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88.504d16 Oct 2026$0.3520/20$700$5,250$5,25077%hist 82%47%hist 42%81%$-966-$15,88328.0%1.3mo$-15,777 (vs do-nothing $-9,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9011d23 Oct 2026$0.8520/20$1,700$4,636$4,63677%hist 82%48%hist 42%81%+$1,064-$11,88320.9%1.0mo$-11,777 (vs do-nothing $-5,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9225d6 Nov 2026$1.3020/20$2,600$3,120$3,12077%hist 82%48%hist 42%81%+$700-$6,98312.3%0.6mo$-6,877 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9118d30 Oct 2026$1.1020/20$2,200$3,667$3,66776%hist 82%50%hist 42%80%+$611-$9,38316.5%0.8mo$-9,277 (vs do-nothing $-3,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91.5025d6 Nov 2026$1.4020/20$2,800$3,360$3,36075%hist 82%51%hist 45%80%+$699-$7,78313.7%0.6mo$-7,677 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89.5011d23 Oct 2026$0.9020/20$1,800$4,909$4,90974%hist 82%53%hist 45%79%+$615-$12,78322.5%1.0mo$-12,677 (vs do-nothing $-6,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90.5018d30 Oct 2026$1.2020/20$2,400$4,000$4,00074%hist 82%53%hist 45%79%+$604-$10,18317.9%0.8mo$-10,077 (vs do-nothing $-4,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9125d6 Nov 2026$1.5520/20$3,100$3,720$3,72073%hist 82%56%hist 45%79%+$632-$8,48314.9%0.7mo$-8,377 (vs do-nothing $-2,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9018d30 Oct 2026$1.3020/20$2,600$4,333$4,33372%hist 82%57%hist 45%78%+$563-$10,98319.3%0.9mo$-10,877 (vs do-nothing $-5,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8911d23 Oct 2026$1.1020/20$2,200$6,000$6,00072%hist 82%58%hist 45%78%+$1,013-$13,38323.6%1.1mo$-13,277 (vs do-nothing $-7,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90.5025d6 Nov 2026$1.6520/20$3,300$3,960$3,96071%hist 82%59%hist 45%78%+$573-$9,28316.3%0.8mo$-9,177 (vs do-nothing $-3,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89.5018d30 Oct 2026$1.4520/20$2,900$4,833$4,83370%hist 82%61%hist 57%77%+$654-$11,68320.6%1.0mo$-11,577 (vs do-nothing $-5,700)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9025d6 Nov 2026$1.8020/20$3,600$4,320$4,32070%hist 64%63%hist 57%77%+$612-$9,98317.6%0.8mo$-9,877 (vs do-nothing $-4,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8918d30 Oct 2026$1.6020/20$3,200$5,333$5,33368%hist 64%66%hist 57%76%+$706-$12,38321.8%1.0mo$-12,277 (vs do-nothing $-6,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89.5025d6 Nov 2026$1.8520/20$3,700$4,440$4,44068%hist 64%66%hist 57%75%+$387-$10,88319.2%0.9mo$-10,777 (vs do-nothing $-4,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8925d6 Nov 2026$2.0520/20$4,100$4,920$4,92066%hist 64%70%hist 69%75%+$498-$11,48320.2%0.9mo$-11,377 (vs do-nothing $-5,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88.5018d30 Oct 2026$1.7520/20$3,500$5,833$5,83366%hist 64%70%hist 69%74%+$718-$13,08323.0%1.1mo$-12,977 (vs do-nothing $-7,100)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88.5025d6 Nov 2026$2.1020/20$4,200$5,040$5,04064%hist 64%74%hist 69%73%+$223-$12,38321.8%1.0mo$-12,277 (vs do-nothing $-6,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8825d6 Nov 2026$2.3020/20$4,600$5,520$5,52062%hist 64%78%hist 69%72%+$282-$12,98322.9%1.1mo$-12,877 (vs do-nothing $-7,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87.5025d6 Nov 2026$2.4020/20$4,800$5,760$5,76060%hist 64%82%hist 79%71%+$75-$13,78324.3%1.1mo$-13,677 (vs do-nothing $-7,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-12 21:48