FORTRESS FIGHT: CRCL @ $86.51

BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $92.02 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CRCL @ $86.51 UNDERWATER $0.49 (0.6% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $92.02 (banked floor $91.48) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $61.449/sh)

SP: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $20.002/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.563/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$33,500	(ND $42.00 + SW $25) x 500
Normal income ref	$5,455/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$66/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-2,850	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,727/mo

HEDGE COVER
$66/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,455/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $21,000

ML VELOCITY
6.1 mo to earn back $33,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $92.02 (probe: $92C 11d) still earns $3,273/mo (60% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-21

$280

Hole (after banked)

$2,570

was $2,850 · 10% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$92.02 → $91.48

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 27 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $112.50 (+30%) · daily UBB $102.37 · 1-wk expected move ±$9 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-11: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $92.02 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $94 23 Oct 2026 (25d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $94)

70%

Touch odds

64%

Per cycle

$1,625

Income / mo

$1,950

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $93.50 2 Oct 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $93.50)

81%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$460

Income / mo

$3,450

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.48/sh now → $2.46 mid-life (likely $2.48–$4.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 694 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $96 (overshoots $2.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$94	9 Oct 2026	9d left	+$1.50/sh	+$750 cycle +$1,210 [+$542…+$944] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$102	23 Oct 2026	23d left	+$0.86/sh	+$431 cycle +$891 [-$22…+$543] · 74% credit	78% surv 72%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$97	9 Oct 2026	9d left	+$0.25/sh	+$123 cycle +$583 [-$212…+$223] · 51% credit	74% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$104	23 Oct 2026	23d left	+$0.07/sh	+$36 cycle +$496 [-$517…+$106] · 35% credit	80% surv 75%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$107	16 Oct 2026	16d left	-$0.90/sh	-$452 cycle +$8 [-$1,062…-$425] · 1% credit	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $460 debit $452 (98% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$8 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,463/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $97 2 Oct 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $97)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$240

Income / mo

$1,800

Buyback gross: $3.62/sh now → $2.56 mid-life (likely $2.16–$4.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 340 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $99 (overshoots $2.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$97	9 Oct 2026	9d left	+$1.46/sh	+$730 cycle +$970 [+$623…+$978] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$105	23 Oct 2026	23d left	+$0.84/sh	+$420 cycle +$660 [+$77…+$657] · 78% credit	78% surv 72%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	9 Oct 2026	9d left	+$0.21/sh	+$103 cycle +$343 [-$150…+$303] · 59% credit	74% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$107	23 Oct 2026	23d left	+$0.04/sh	+$19 cycle +$259 [-$424…+$241] · 43% credit	79% surv 75%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$110	23 Oct 2026	23d left	-$0.41/sh	-$207 cycle +$33 [-$709…+$1] · 26% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $240 debit $207 (86% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,397/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (40 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.057 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,911 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-448

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$95	4d	2 Oct 2026	$0.73	5/5	$2,738	$2,671	85%	87%	+$1,207	-$0	0.0%	$426 (vs do-nothing +$874)
$94	4d	2 Oct 2026	$0.85	5/5	$3,188	$3,121	83%	85%	+$1,247	-$0	0.0%	$486 (vs do-nothing +$934)
$93.50	4d	2 Oct 2026	$0.92	4/5	$2,760	$3,785	81%	84%	+$1,018	-$0	0.0%	$327 (vs do-nothing +$775)
$93	4d	2 Oct 2026	$1.04	4/5	$3,120	$4,145	80%	83%	+$1,169	-$0	0.0%	$375 (vs do-nothing +$823)
$92.50	4d	2 Oct 2026	$1.11	4/5	$3,330	$4,355	78%	82%	+$1,149	-$0	0.0%	$403 (vs do-nothing +$851)
$92	4d	2 Oct 2026	$1.22	3/5	$2,745	$4,861	77%	81%	+$919	-$0	0.0%	$218 (vs do-nothing +$666)
$91.50	4d	2 Oct 2026	$1.31	3/5	$2,948	$5,063	75%	80%	+$913	-$0	0.0%	$95 (vs do-nothing +$543)
$93.50	11d	9 Oct 2026	$2.01	5/5	$2,741	$2,675	75%	80%	+$818	-$0	0.0%	$1,066 (vs do-nothing +$1,514)
$93	11d	9 Oct 2026	$2.12	5/5	$2,891	$2,825	73%	79%	+$824	-$0	0.0%	$1,121 (vs do-nothing +$1,569)
$91	4d	2 Oct 2026	$1.45	3/5	$3,262	$5,378	73%	79%	+$999	-$0	0.0%	$-13 (vs do-nothing +$435)
$92.50	11d	9 Oct 2026	$2.26	5/5	$3,082	$3,016	72%	78%	+$861	-$0	0.0%	$1,191 (vs do-nothing +$1,639)
$92	11d	9 Oct 2026	$2.40	5/5	$3,273	$3,207	71%	77%	+$888	-$0	0.0%	$1,252 (vs do-nothing +$1,700)
$91.50	11d	9 Oct 2026	$2.53	4/5	$2,760	$3,785	69%	77%	+$712	-$0	0.0%	$764 (vs do-nothing +$1,212)

Show 27 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$90	4d	2 Oct 2026	$1.76	3/5	$3,960	$6,076	69%	76%	+$1,169	-$77	0.4%	$-220 (vs do-nothing +$228)
$92	18d	16 Oct 2026	$3.30	5/5	$2,750	$2,684	68%	76%	+$612	-$0	0.0%	$1,702 (vs do-nothing +$2,150)
$91	11d	9 Oct 2026	$2.67	4/5	$2,913	$3,938	68%	76%	+$715	-$0	0.0%	$620 (vs do-nothing +$1,068)
$91.50	18d	16 Oct 2026	$3.45	5/5	$2,875	$2,809	67%	75%	+$616	-$0	0.0%	$1,527 (vs do-nothing +$1,975)
$91	18d	16 Oct 2026	$3.60	5/5	$3,000	$2,934	65%	74%	+$614	-$0	0.0%	$1,352 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$90	11d	9 Oct 2026	$3.00	4/5	$3,273	$4,298	65%	74%	+$747	-$0	0.0%	$352 (vs do-nothing +$800)
$89	4d	2 Oct 2026	$2.04	2/5	$3,060	$6,267	64%	74%	+$778	-$195	0.9%	$-440 (vs do-nothing +$8)
$90	18d	16 Oct 2026	$3.95	5/5	$3,292	$3,226	63%	73%	+$632	-$0	0.0%	$1,027 (vs do-nothing +$1,475)
$89	11d	9 Oct 2026	$3.20	4/5	$3,491	$4,516	61%	72%	+$596	-$0	0.0%	$32 (vs do-nothing +$480)
$89	18d	16 Oct 2026	$4.30	4/5	$2,867	$3,892	60%	72%	+$499	-$0	0.0%	$472 (vs do-nothing +$920)
$89	25d	23 Oct 2026	$5.05	5/5	$3,030	$2,964	60%	71%	+$402	-$0	0.0%	$1,077 (vs do-nothing +$1,525)
$88	4d	2 Oct 2026	$2.42	2/5	$3,630	$6,837	60%	71%	+$847	-$319	1.5%	$-564 (vs do-nothing $-116)
$88	11d	9 Oct 2026	$3.65	3/5	$2,986	$5,102	58%	70%	+$505	-$110	0.5%	$-253 (vs do-nothing +$195)
$88	18d	16 Oct 2026	$4.70	4/5	$3,133	$4,158	57%	70%	+$503	-$0	0.0%	$232 (vs do-nothing +$680)
$88	25d	23 Oct 2026	$5.20	5/5	$3,120	$3,054	57%	70%	+$259	-$0	0.0%	$652 (vs do-nothing +$1,100)
$87	25d	23 Oct 2026	$5.60	5/5	$3,360	$3,294	55%	69%	+$249	-$0	0.0%	$352 (vs do-nothing +$800)
$87	18d	16 Oct 2026	$5.15	4/5	$3,433	$4,458	55%	69%	+$518	-$0	0.0%	$12 (vs do-nothing +$460)
$87	4d	2 Oct 2026	$2.83	2/5	$4,245	$7,452	54%	69%	+$870	-$437	2.1%	$-682 (vs do-nothing $-234)
$87	11d	9 Oct 2026	$4.00	3/5	$3,273	$5,388	54%	69%	+$446	-$305	1.5%	$-448 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$86	25d	23 Oct 2026	$6.05	4/5	$2,904	$3,929	52%	68%	+$201	-$0	0.0%	$-28 (vs do-nothing +$420)
$86	18d	16 Oct 2026	$5.60	3/5	$2,800	$4,916	52%	68%	+$381	-$125	0.6%	$-268 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$86	11d	9 Oct 2026	$4.50	3/5	$3,682	$5,798	51%	67%	+$474	-$455	2.2%	$-598 (vs do-nothing $-150)
$85	25d	23 Oct 2026	$6.65	4/5	$3,192	$4,217	50%	67%	+$260	-$147	0.7%	$-188 (vs do-nothing +$260)
$86	4d	2 Oct 2026	$3.15	2/5	$4,725	$7,932	49%	67%	+$659	-$573	2.7%	$-818 (vs do-nothing $-370)
$85	18d	16 Oct 2026	$6.05	3/5	$3,025	$5,141	49%	66%	+$355	-$290	1.4%	$-433 (vs do-nothing +$15)
$85	11d	9 Oct 2026	$5.00	2/5	$2,727	$5,934	47%	66%	+$309	-$403	1.9%	$-648 (vs do-nothing $-200)
$85	4d	2 Oct 2026	$3.65	1/5	$2,738	$7,035	43%	64%	+$307	-$337	1.6%	$-683 (vs do-nothing $-235)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-28 21:45